CNN Transcript - Crossfire: Down to Wire in South Carolina with McCain and Bush

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think we're going to get a big voter turnout, and if that's the case, then I'm going to win this race.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: Live on CNN, CROSSFIRE. On the left, Bill Press. On the right, Robert Novak.

In the CROSSFIRE, in Clemson, South Carolina, Karen Hughes, communications director for the Bush campaign. And in Litchfield, South Carolina, Congressman John Shadegg of Arizona, a John McCain supporter.

NOVAK: Good evening. Welcome to CROSSFIRE.

The polls have been bouncing around in South Carolina, where Saturday's potentially decisive Republican presidential primary will be held, and the most recent bounces have been in George W. Bush's favor.

The new CNN/"USA Today" Gallup poll gives the Texas governor a 12-point lead over Sen. John McCain. Other surveys have Bush ahead by a much more narrow margin, as little as two points, a virtual dead heat.

Whatever the disagreements between the pollsters, the candidates were vigorously, or was it desperately. making their last pitches all over the Palmetto State today. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MCCAIN: I'm going to beat him like a drum and send him back to the state of Tennessee, my friends; that's what we're going to do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: I'll tell you why tomorrow is a big day, because tomorrow, when South Carolina goes to vote for George W. Bush, it will be the beginning of the end of the Clinton era in Washington, D.C.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NOVAK: Both candidates draw large, enthusiastic crowds. Bush's, mostly die hard Republicans. McCain's including plenty of independents and even Democrats. There has been a record demand for absentee ballots promising a big voter turnout Saturday, but which candidate knew they'd turn out for? It matters. The Republican presidential nomination could be at stake -- Bill.

PRESS: Karen Hughes, I ran into a friend, a Republican friend of mine, at lunch the other day. I asked him what he thought about the South Carolina primary. His response was that George W. Bush wanted to run for president in the worst way, and he is. It's been a nonstop barrage of negative attacks on the part of your campaign, Karen.

Did you go back to Austin after New Hampshire and decide that the only way George Bush could win would be to destroy John McCain?

KAREN HUGHES, BUSH COMMUNICATION DIRECTOR: Bill, what we decided was that the way for Governor Bush to win was to defend his record and talk about his record of being a reformer who has achieved results, and that's the big difference between Governor Bush and Senator McCain. Senator McCain talks about reform, yet despite his 17 or 18 years in the United States Senate, he has little of reforms to show for it. Governor Bush, on the other hand, ran on a platform of fundamental reform and achieved them in the state of Texas.

And the people of South Carolina, Bill, know very well that the real negative ad in the race was run by Senator McCain, who delivered the lowest blow of all. He said -- he went on television here in South Carolina and said that Governor Bush's integrity could be compared to that of President Bill Clinton's, and while that may not hurt a Democrat, that is about the worst thing you can say about a Republican.

PRESS: Well, of course I've heard Governor Bush say a hundred times, if I've heard him once, say that John McCain's tax plan is like Clinton and Gore's, so they're both comparing, trying to get the word "Clinton" in there, but the governor has also complained about this flier, Karen, that he held up at the debate the other night, which he says is a negative attack on the part of John McCain. All it says is, at the top, "When it comes to keeping Social Security secure, George Bush's figures simply do not add up." Karen, that's not a negative attack. It's not a personal attack. Compared to the flier, you've had TV, you've had radio, you've had phone calls;, you've have had mails, all attacking John McCain. You could never get this many fliers on windshields to keep up with that.

HUGHES: Well, Bill, let me go back to a misstatement you made earlier, when you said that Governor Bush has somehow -- what was it you said at the very beginning of that question? It was a long question. I forget what you may made at the beginning. You made a misstatement there that I wanted to correct.

PRESS: I will remind you that many, many times, including in the debate on "LARRY KING" the other night, George Bush compares John McCain to Bill Clinton and Al Gore.

HUGHES: That's why, Bill, because that's a policy disagreement.

PRESS Oh, Karen.

HUGHES: The fact is that Chairman McCain, who is chairman of a very powerful committee in Washington, has proposed a tax plan, and he himself said in the debate in New Hampshire that his tax plan is comparable to that of President Clinton's. It's not a substantial tax cut plan. When you put in there also the tax increases that he proposes to pay for it, it comes out to $80 or $90 billion dollars. It's a very insubstantial tax cut plan that's very similar to Mr. Clinton's.

NOVAK: John Shadegg...

PRESS: Bob, I just want to make a quick factual point. The Clinton's tax plan is $250 billion over 10 year's. McCain's is $237 billion over five. McCain's, in fact, is twice as big as Bill Clinton's.

Go ahead, Bob.

NOVAK: I'm very glad you made that point, Bill.

PRESS: Well, it ought to be made.

NOVAK: Congressman John Shadegg, as you well know, South Carolina has a lot of social conservatives who will be voting in the Republican primary, and an awful lot of those good people listen to a very popular radio program, "Focus on the Family," by James Dobson. Dr. Dobson put out a remarkable statement, which I am going to read to you, because it is so remarkable, about Senator McCain. He said, "The senator is being touted by the media as a man of principle, yet he was involved with other women while married to his first wife and was implicated in the so-called Keating scandal with four other senators. The senator reportedly has a violent temper and can be extremely confrontational and profane when angry. These red flags about Senator McCain character are reminiscent of the man who now occupies the White House" -- end quote.

Just before the primary, isn't that a devastating blow? REP. JOHN SHADEGG (R-AZ), MCCAIN SUPPORTER: No. What it is, it's an outrageous attack which is not founded in fact. In point of fact, Gary Bauer, who was the strongest social conservative in this race, has been here in South Carolina campaigning vigorously all day yesterday and all day today with Senator McCain and is very much supportive of him.

And I think it's interesting that the Bush campaign says they're not doing negative attacks and then you read me what is clearly a personal assault on Senator McCain.

NOVAK: But that's not in the bush campaign.

HUGHES: Let me step in there, congressman, because that did not come from the Bush campaign, and Governor Bush has been very careful not to be personal.

SHADEGG: Right, just like all the other things that have not come from the bush campaign. Everything else that's being done.

HUGHES: Let me go back to the facts, congressman. You voted for the Republican congressional tax plan last year. At the time you said that all Americans deserved tax relief, and Governor Bush agreed.

SHADEGG: And they do, and under Senator McCain's plan, they gets tax relief.

HUGHES: No, they don't.

SHADEGG: I don't suppose your candidate listened yesterday to Alan Greenspan who said a deep tax cut, like he's proposing, would be dangerous for the economy right now.

(CROSSTALK)

NOVAK: John, let me ask you a question.

SHADEGG: The notion this is a liberal-conservative fight is wrong.

NOVAK: Let me ask you this question.

SHADEGG: This is not a liberal-conservative battle. This is a battle about who can connect with the American people. And John McCain is connecting with the American people in a way that George W. Bush isn't coming close to. Four weeks ago Governor Bush had a 50- point lead. It's now down to, perhaps at best, a two-point lead.

NOVAK: Congressman, let me ask you about this tax thing, one question. Senator McCain surprised me and a lot of other people when he said he would not -- no matter how big the surplus gets, he would not change the high tax rates imposed on top incomes by the Clinton tax increase of 1993. Do you agree with that?

SHADEGG: That's his position at the start. Remember, Senator McCain is talking about getting the relief package started. He has an opening position on tax relief, which by the way is supported by Chairman Alan Greenspan of the Federal Reserve. He says we need to start with tax relief, which hits the middle class people. I have been out talking to Americans and...

(CROSSTALK)

NOVAK: That isn't what Senator McCain said -- just a minute, Karen. Just let me say this. That isn't what Senator McCain told me in an interview. He said he would -- he felt that he would not change those rates under any conditions.

PRESS: All right, Karen. Karen, I know you want to jump in there. Let me...

SHADEGG: Well, I want to jump into Karen.

Karen, let's talk about the fact that you just lied about Senator McCain's tax relief plan. You just said it increases taxes. It does not increase taxes, and that's the second time today that I've heard the Bush campaign say that.

(CROSSTALK)

PRESS: All right, Karen, go ahead.

(CROSSTALK)-

PRESS: One at a time, please, please.

HUGHES: ... $151 billion dollars of tax increases -- he calls them closing corporate loopholes. Let me give you an example of one of them.

SHADEGG: They are closing corporate loopholes, Karen.

HUGHES: Congressman, he says that if you give stock to your church as a contribution that you cannot take the full value of that contribution to your church or charitable organization. Do you agree with that? Would you vote for that in the United States Congress?

SHADEGG: No less than John Kasich has been fighting to close corporate loopholes. If you don't believe there are corporate tax loopholes in our tax code, I think you need to read that tax code, Karen.

(CROSSTALK)

PRESS: All right, let me jump in there, Karen, Congressman, Karen, Congressman, please, please, let me jump in here if I may, let me jump in here with a question, Karen, please.

SHADEGG: This is not a liberal-conservative fight. This is a fight of who can beat Al Gore? And the answer is John McCain can beat Al Gore.

(CROSSTALK) PRESS: Please, congressman, if we may move on please.

Karen, one disadvantage I think for John McCain is there's only one John McCain. There seems to be a whole herd of Bush's, his brother Marvin, his brother Jeb, first lady Barbara, and of course, President Bush, who's out on the campaign trail.

Now, I'd like to play you just a little clip of what the president said yesterday about his son.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He won the first election 53-47, beating Ann Richards, which was a real feat, and then he was re-elected with 70 percent of the vote, Democrats and independents coming in because they saw the record.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PRESS: Now that has always been the strongest argument since way last year for George W. Bush, is that he can bring in, as he did in Texas, independents and Democrats. And yet today, Karen, all the polls show, as in New Hampshire, John McCain is running two to one among Democrats and independents in South Carolina. Doesn't that mean right now that John McCain is the strongest Republican candidate in November?

HUGHES: Absolutely not, Bill. And in fact, Governor Bush does welcome Democrats and independents in the Republican primary so long as they're coming into vote for our conservative philosophy of limited government and low taxes. What we're concerned about is that we've had elected officials here in South Carolina, a state representative who is Democrat who went on television and suggested that fellow Democrats come into the Republican primary and vote for Senator McCain, because, in his words, Senator McCain would be easier for Al Gore to beat this fall.

Now, we don't want Democrats coming into our primary to make mischief.

SHADEGG: I'd really like to...

HUGHES: If there are conservative Democrats and independents...

PRESS: Go ahead, congressman.

HUGHES: If there are conservative Democrats and independents who want to support Governor Bush, then we welcome then.

SHADEGG: Can I get a response in here?

PRESS: Go ahead, Congressman.

SHADEGG: I'm sure that the -- I'm sure the Bush campaign does welcome then. But the answer is it's not attracting them, it's not exciting them. John McCain is exciting voters. He's exciting indifference. People who don't normally get out and vote are being motivated and are being connected with by Senator McCain and the McCain campaign, and they're turning out to vote.

They did it in New Hampshire. Turnout numbers that you talked about already are extremely high here in South Carolina.

The reality is you can't win an election if you don't reach across the aisle and pick up independent support and Democrat support, and that is exactly what John McCain is doing.

PRESS: And on that...

SHADEGG: I want to point that...

HUGHES: And that's exactly what Governor Bush is doing.

SHADEGG: Barry Goldwater...

PRESS: And on that point...

SHADEGG: Barry Goldwater never would have been in the United States but for crossover Democrats.

PRESS: On that point, we're going to have to take a break. Please, both of you hold your fire, a lot of intensity down in South Carolina.

Would you believe, though, that the next two primaries, Michigan and Arizona, are only three days after South Carolina? Who's going to get a head of steam going into Michigan and Arizona? We'll talk about that when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PRESS: Welcome back to CROSSFIRE. Everything is on the line in South Carolina tomorrow. Can either George Bush or John McCain survive a loss in the Palmetto State and still have enough gas left in the tank to win in Michigan and Arizona just three days later?

We're talking about South Carolina and beyond with Bush campaign communications director Karen Hughes. She's in Clemson, South Carolina. And in Litchfield, Congressman John Shadegg of Arizona, a McCain supporter.

NOVAK: Congressman Shadegg, one of the national co-chairman of Senator McCain's campaign, former Senator Warren Rudman of New Hampshire, confirmed to "The Manchester Union Leader" this week that he did refer to members of the Christian Coalition as bigots. At lot of Christian Coalition members in South Carolina. Do you think they're bigots?

SHADEGG: No, I don't think they're bigots, and I wouldn't make that kind of statement. And I don't think that's an official statement of the McCain campaign. But there have been some pretty outrageous charges made down here which are sad and which shouldn't be a part of this campaign. The quote you just read, notwithstanding the fact that Gary Bauer -- a solid social conservative is down here campaigning for Senator McCain, not withstanding the fact that Senator McCain's voting record on such issues as abortion is as strong as any social conservative from this state, including Senator Strom Thurmond -- these kind of attacks are being launched. It's unfortunate, but it's really a side show in all of this.

The substance here -- the substance here...

NOVAK: Let me go -- just a minute...

SHADEGG: ... the substance here is who can beat Al Gore...

NOVAK: I want to...

SHADEGG: ... and who can reach out to the voters and connect with the voters, and John McCain is doing that. He's connecting with the voters and inspiring people to come out and vote.

NOVAK: I want to go back to the Senator Rudman thing again, because he said it was good politics to say that. He told "The Union Leader" this week, he said -- quote -- "The far right isn't voting for John McCain anyway, and for John to align himself with someone who doesn't like the Christian Coalition" -- meaning Warren Rudman -- "can't hurt him and may help him."

In other words, being -- this is a calculated move on his co- chairman, somebody who would be the next attorney general of the United States, according to Senator McCain, if he's elected president. Do you think that's good politics?

SHADEGG: No, I don't think it's good politics, but again, I don't think that's an official position of the McCain campaign. Mr. Rudman is one supporter of Senator McCain.

NOVAK: He's the closest supporter, isn't he?

SHADEGG: Jon Kyl of Arizona is another co-chairman of the campaign. And Gary Bauer is down here as a prominent social conservative passionately speaking on behalf of Senator McCain. I heard him yesterday. He introduced Senator McCain all day long with passion, explaining that John McCain is the right guy to solve America's problems and can lead America, and he can bring across the kind of support we need: reach over to the former Reagan Democrats, bring them back to the Republican Party so that we can win.

We've lost two back-to-back presidential elections. We've lost seats in two back-to-back congressional elections. We need to bring in supporters and we need to win.

PRESS: Let's get Karen back in here.

HUGHES: You keep trying to change the subject. The fact is that Warren Rudman made those statements. In New Hampshire, Senator McCain said Warren Rudman would make a good attorney general. Do you think someone who made those kind of statements should be the attorney general that a Republican president would appoint?

SHADEGG: Look, I don't want to get down into a slugfest, and I'm not going to do it. And I can stand here and recite all kinds of things that have been said about Senator McCain in the last 48 hours or more in this city or in this state, and we could go through them one by one and I could attach them back to the Bush campaign.

PRESS: Well, congressman -- congressman...

(CROSSTALK)

PRESS: Hold it. Hold it. Time out, please. Time out, both of you, please.

Karen, I want to read you something about Senator McCain, and this is something that was said by one of Governor Bush's supporters. I'm here in New York: Senator D'Amato saying this in this morning's "New York Times" about your candidate, whom he has endorsed, I repeat.

Quote: "Right now, I think the person who captures the spirit of not only Republicans but also America in many respects is John McCain. Not since Ronald Reagan or John Kennedy do people come out to see a candidate who is not the president himself. He" -- McCain -- "is the Don Quixote of modern-day politics."

Karen, when your own people start saying McCain's a better candidate, you've got some problems, don't you?

HUGHES: Well, Bill, I beg to differ with Senator D'Amato, and I think overwhelmingly the people of South Carolina are going to differ with that kind of statement. What they're seeing in Governor Bush is a compassionate conservative, someone who's been a successful governor, someone who's been a reformer, but an important difference: has been a reformer who has achieved results.

In the state of Texas, he brought Republicans and Democrats together. Senator McCain seems to have done a very effective job of making all his colleagues mad. We don't want more partisan bickering in Washington, D.C. We want a leader like Governor Bush who can bring Republicans...

SHADEGG: Karen...

(CROSSTALK)

PRESS: Yes, but, Karen...

(CROSSTALK)

Congressman...

HUGHES: ... and Democrats together to achieve things like education reform, like tax reform, like tax cuts.

PRESS: Congressman...

SHADEGG: I'd like to...

PRESS: Congressman, let me follow up please, if I can.

SHADEGG: Sure.

Congressman, let me follow up, if I can, with Karen.

Karen, because some of your supporters, too, given his record in Texas, that have seen the governor campaign and have had second thoughts. I'm speaking particularly about Bill Jones, top-ranking Republican in the state of California, secretary of state, was a Bush supporter, switched to John McCain this week because he said he didn't like your negative style of campaigning and he also didn't like the fact that the governor was criticizing McCain for appealing to Republicans -- Democrats and independents, which Republicans have to do to win in California. Isn't the kind of campaign you've run in South Carolina turning people off in other states?

HUGHES: The kind of campaign we've run in South Carolina has been positive and hopeful and optimistic. We've talked about Governor Bush's vision for a better America, we've talked about education reforms, tax cuts, about increased spending for defense. We've focused on issues, Bill. And at times like this, after you lose New Hampshire, sure there's some angst. That's when you find out who your friends are. And what Governor Bush is finding out is he has a lot of friends...

NOVAK: All right...

HUGHES: ... here in South Carolina.

NOVAK: I want to get...

HUGHES: And that's why he's...

NOVAK: I want to get one...

HUGHES: ...going to win tomorrow...

NOVAK: Just a minute -- wait a minute, Karen.

HUGHES: ... overwhelmingly -- overwhelmingly.

NOVAK: I want to get one more question into Congressman Shadegg.

You know, talk about turning people off, the Gallup organization did a poll of people who had actually seen the debate Tuesday night. And, of course, ever since that debate, Senator McCain has been falling a little in the polls. Who did the best job in the debate? Ambassador Keyes 40 percent, George Bush 34 percent, McCain 19 percent. The interactive responses by people watching it simultaneously show the same thing. What did John McCain do wrong in that debate?

SHADEGG: What John McCain did in that debate was get pulled into the negative campaigning that's going on and allowed himself to talk about that negative campaigning and quite frankly allowed himself to get a little upset about it...

NOVAK: He was whining.

SHADEGG: ... and so it turned out to be a slug fest between the two of them. But the reality is the John McCain campaign is reaching out and touching people and motivating it's them to come and vote in a way that the Bush campaign is not doing.

NOVAK: Last -- last word. Time's up, last word, John.

SHADEGG: I want to make one more point.

PRESS: Thank you very much, John Shadegg. Thank you very much, Karen.

And Bill Press and I, in different places, will be back with closing comments.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PRESS: OK, for complete coverage of the South Carolina primary, tune in tomorrow night at 7:00 Eastern with Judy Woodruff, Bernard Shaw and Jeff Greenfield. Also on hand, Mary Matalin and me with our different points of view as well as Robert Novak and the rest of "THE CAPITAL GANG" -- Bob.

NOVAK: Bill, as far as you trotting out that old cliche about George Bush winning in the worst possible way, the fact of the matter is all the governor did was point out some of the things about John McCain that makes him so attractive to liberals like you, like his poor position on taxes. I would say that George Bush, since his defeat in New Hampshire, has been an incomparably better campaigner. I think the defeat did a lot for him and I think the polls show it.

PRESS: I think he's run a shameful campaign in South Carolina, Bob. But you know what amuses me watching this from a distance is I think the Republicans have in John McCain a guy who's clearly be the stronger candidate in November, and yet the Republican establishment is all behind the weaker candidate, George Bush. I find it weird. As a Democrat, I like it.

From the left, I'm Bill Press. Good night for CROSSFIRE.

NOVAK: Your solicitude for the Republican Party touches me.

From the right, I'm Robert Novak. Join us again next time for another edition of CROSSFIRE.

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