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Mexican Presidential Candidate Vicente Fox Could Face Tough Road Ahead

Aired July 2, 2000 - 6:02 p.m. ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BRIAN NELSON, CNN ANCHOR: For a closer look at the man who could upset Mexico's political status-quo, maverick populist Vicente Fox, what is his appeal, and what happens if he wins, a profile of Fox appears in today's "New York Times Magazine." And author Paul Berman, who wrote it, joins us from New York.

Mr. Berman, thanks for being with us.

PAUL BERMAN, "NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE": Thank you.

NELSON: The watchword for this election in Mexico is change. If change is so deeply felt, how is it that Vicente Fox, the opposition candidate, can only manage to run neck-and-neck with the governing party's pre-candidate? And the third-party candidate, Cardenas, is so far back that he is not even considered to be a contender.

BERMAN: Well, the challenge facing Vicente Fox, in trying to defeat the Institutional Revolutionary Party, it really immense. The party has been in power for 71 years. It's notorious for buying votes among poor people. It has probably the slickest political machine anywhere in the world -- the party even boasts of that. So, Vicente Fox has his work cut out for him.

And he has a second problem, that, ideally the opposition, the democratic opposition in Mexico, should have united its left wing and its right wing. But it failed to unite, and so Fox had to run strictly on his own, without the kind of allies that he should have had on the left.

NELSON: On the one hand, the governing party has been accused of fraud in past elections, but aren't there some doubts about Fox himself -- not in that regard, but others. Don't voters hold him with some doubt?

BERMAN: Well, Vicente Fox comes from a party had that has a background in the extreme right of 50 years ago, or 60 years ago. And some of that extreme right-wing baggage comes along with him. It's definitely a problem. He tried to rid himself of most of that. And he's made a sincere effort. But that is a problem. He is closely associated with the hierarchs of the Catholic church, and that's controversial which is Mexico. And he's made some political errors along the way, too.

At the same time, he's run a very strong campaigning.

NELSON: Let's say that he does win this election. If the polls show the race is as close as it is, and he wins by a small margin, what will he likely do with this victory? What will he do in government?

BERMAN: Well, the first thing that's he going to do most likely is, as he says, form a government of transition, a transition to democracy. And that means he will form a government consisting not just of his own right-wing party, National Action, but with members of all the parties. And he's offered prominent government spots to some of his rivals and opponents. They'll be people on the left who already figure among his advisers. They'll be part of his government.

So, that will be his first step, to form a broad transition in government. After that...

NELSON: Go ahead.

BERMAN: After that, he is going to have quite a few difficulties, because he is almost certainly going to have a minority support in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

NELSON: Some people fear that there may be unrest if Francisco Labastida, the governing candidate wins, but wins only by a small margin. Do you feel that the people of Mexico will feel that this election again has been stolen from them?

BERMAN: The possibility the people will feel that is good if Labastida wins by only a small amount. There are 113,604 polling places in Mexico. And to guarantee that all of those are run in a clean and transparent and honest matter is going to be extremely hard.

NELSON: Listen, Paul Berman, thank you for taking the time to talk to us. Paul Berman, who wrote a "New York Times Magazine" article -- appears today.

Thank you for joining us. And Mexican nationals living in the U.S. are casting their ballots at special polling booths along the border.

Some have made the drive, while others have been bussed in caravans organized by the major parties. But observers say, with a very limited number of ballots available, there effect on the elections in Mexico is likely to be small. One and a half million Mexicans living in America have valid voting cards, but fewer than 60,000 ballots do exist.

The last polls on Mexico's Pacific coast close in less than three hours. That's at 9:00 p.m. Eastern time. And so, we invite you to keep watching CNN for election results. We'll bring them to you just as soon as they are announced.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com

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