Crossfire

Who Would Make the Best Running Mates for Al Gore and George W. Bush?

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BILL PRESS, CO-HOST: Tonight, sizing up short list -- who would make the best running mates for Al Gore and George W. Bush?

ANNOUNCER: Live from Washington, CROSSFIRE. On the left, Bill Press; on the right, Robert Novak. In the crossfire, Republican strategist Scott Reed, former campaign manager for Bob Dole, and Democratic strategist Mark Siegel, former executive director of the Democratic National Committee.

PRESS: Good evening. Welcome to CROSSFIRE.

No, no, and no again said House minority leader Dick Gephardt, attempting to squash once and for all strong rumors that he is Al Gore's top choice for vice president, a job, Gephardt say, he told Gore he doesn't want.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT (D-MO), MINORITY LEADER: What I've said is very clear. I said I don't want to do that, and I've said I hope and believe they will find someone to do that, other than me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PRESS: After Gephardt, high among other rumored front-runners is Sen. Bob Graham, perhaps Gore's secret weapon in his attempts to win the key electoral state of Florida.

For his part, George Bush admits he's narrowed the list. Still at the top, two governor's -- Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, who is both Catholic and pro-choice, the other governor, Frank Keating of Oklahoma, who's prepared for his national campaign by frequent appearances on CROSSFIRE.

What's it all mean? Maybe not much. Eight-seven percent of Americans asked told CNN the choice of vice presidential running mate has never influenced their vote.

So will it influence their vote this year? And who might it be?

Bob.

ROBERT NOVAK, CO-HOST: Mark Siegel, I've always relied on you over the years to explain the about machinations of the Democratic Party to me. I got a call -- I was in Colorado, I got a call from David Bonior, the House minority whip. He was calling many people Friday, saying what a good vice presidential candidate Dick Gephardt would be, particularly in the Midwest, particularly with organized labor, strengthen the ticket, and then we have today, Gephardt says he doesn't want it. What's going on?

MARK SIEGEL, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, maybe Speaker Bonior was thinking of himself, but I don't think Gephardt was ever seriously contemplating being on that ticket. I think he wants to be speaker. I think there's a good reason to think that he very well could be speaker. He did come -- he does come from a state that is very much in play, in Missouri. But if you look at the available candidates on the Democratic side, you'll see that there are a number of them from important electoral college states.

NOVAK: Well, we're going to go down the list.

SIEGEL: OK, but I don't think Dick Gephardt was ever seriously -- ever seriously wanted this job.

NOVAK: They want him, though. Do you think that Gore wanted him?

SIEGEL: Frankly, I think we shouldn't be concerned about shoring up base. If Gephardt was being put on to shore up a base, I'm just thinking of the general election campaign and persuadable voters, and that's not playing base politics; that's playing politics for moderate voters, and I don't Dick would have helped as much as some others.

NOVAK: The hot flavor of the week, of the day, as far as I can see, is Sen. Bob Graham of Florida. There is an internal Democratic poll down in Florida that says that he can actually carry the state for Gore, the states of Florida, despite Jeb Bush being governor and so on. You think so?

SIEGEL: Yes, I think so. Well, first, in '96, Clinton actually carried the state, and he carried it substantially, because of issues that are salient to that electorate. Bob Graham is very popular there. The numbers are relatively close, much closer than one would think they should be at this point. Graham could tilt that state on every other criteria. He also probably could help a bit in George, in North Carolina, in Louisiana, in Arkansas.

NOVAK: You think he's a hell of a choice then?

SIEGEL: I think would be a very, very substantial vice presidential candidate.

NOVAK: Let's talk about the negative side. I hate to be negative, but let's talk about it. "Time" magazine in this July 17 issue had a big piece on Bob Graham's diary. And apparently, he is compulsive in describing everything he does every minute. My diary entrants, I kind of summarize what I did for the past decade in one sentence. But here we have one where -- for example, "September 1994, 12:05-12:20: Bathroom, changed to red shorts. 12:05-1:20: Family, room, eat lunch, tuna salad. Watch 'Ace Ventura.'" Is that Jesse Ventura? No, no, no. Bedroom -- "1:20-1:30, bedroom, bathroom, dress in blue socks. 1:30-1:45: Rewind Ace Ventura."

(LAUGHTER)

NOVAK: Now you're not laughing, but we've got press laughing. Do you want a vice president you can make fun of?

SIEGEL: Sound like a very organized man to me. I want a vice president who, one, was a great governor, one, is a great senator, and two, could help in terms of the electoral college battle. I think this man is good. He's not the only one, but I think he could very...

NOVAK: So you don't think this disqualifies him, all this nonsense?

SIEGEL: What? Because he's organized?

NOVAK: Isn't that over-organized.

SIEGEL: Because he's substantial? Because he was gravitas? He's a serious man?

PRESS: Scott, fellow native of Delaware, welcome to the show.

SCOTT REED, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Thank you.

PRESS: Let me ask a threshold question. It seems to me, it seems to me, assuming that whoever would be the qualified to step in if something happens, you can pick based on electorate or geography, you can pick based on somebody who is going to create a buzz, you can pick based on somebody you just like, or you can pick based somebody who's got some expertise in an area you lack. You've been through it. None of us have, OK. Which of those factors is the most important? .

REED: You try to find somebody who can help with you a coalition where you may you have some problems, help you with a part of the party where you need some outreach. It's very important that a candidate can withstand a national campaign, both the physical and the mental parts of it. And those are the top priorities.

And I think if you watch Bush and you watch how he runs his campaign, he's really looking for somebody he likes. That's how he runs his campaign. It's very tight, and he needs to have that feeling that this man will be number two in the Bush world.

PRESS: All right, now let's also assume for the purposes of this sketch that Colin Powell is off the table, because he seems to have taken himself there. But the other one, I think Bob and I both agree, who would be the dynamite number one choice for Bush and almost guarantee he would win is John McCain. Why not John McCain? Is Bush afraid to ask him?

REED: I don't think so. McCain is actually...

PRESS: Or is McCain still in the play?

REED: I think he's very important in this whole process. First of all, it's important how Bush handles him throughout this process. You look at the undecided voters right now, 80, 85 percent of them are McCain voters that are still looking for a place to go. Now Bush isn't arriving at the convention until Wednesday. McCain is getting there Saturday. It's really going to be the McCain convention for the first couple days. And I think it's very important -- unlike Dukakis in '88 neglected Jesse Jackson and didn't tell him the answers until it was over -- they have to bring McCain in in the next 10 days, and obviously at the last minute tell him who it is and make him part of the process. But everyone is going to be watching McCain.

PRESS: But is he still in the play, do you believe?

REED: I don't think so. I think Bush has made it clear he's not in play. McCain has made it clear he's not interested. That would sure cause the Democrats a scare.

PRESS: Now let's talk about Tom Ridge then, who's the other one everybody seems to be -- you know, big flirtation going on over. He's tall, right? He's a Catholic. He's been a good governor, member of Congress, decorated veteran. He's got everything going for him, except he is pro-choice. He's against partial-birth abortion. He's pro-choice. His Bishop in the warpath. There is a group of Catholic priests who've said they're going to make abortion the issue in this election. Jim Dobson, Rev. Dobson, has said -- has warned to Bush not pick him.

REED: He's not a reverend.

PRESS: I'm sorry, Jim Dobson has warned Bush not to pick him. And on CNN, our poll today showed that one out of 10 Republican voters would abandon Bush if he picks a pro-choice running mate. Does that mean, despite the flirtation, Tom Ridge is really dead?

REED: I don't think so. I think Ridge will be on the final one, two or three lists.

PRESS: How could Bush survive all of those attacks? It will be tough.

REED: But he's going to take it -- because Ridge does something nobody else does: He nails a battleground state. He gets you 23 electoral votes. Look, Bush is running a campaign on a different type of Republican, a different type of candidate, a different type of convention, and I think he's considering it. I'm not sure he'll do it at the end of the day, because it would cause some smoke to come out of the convention hall.

NOVAK: All right, Mark Siegel, let me tell you my choice, not that the Democratic Party is asking me.

SIEGEL: We are very interested in your choice. NOVAK: But I think he is a dynamite campaigner. He's very attractive. He's smart. He's a great debater. Ask William Weld. That's Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. What do you think of him as a candidate?

SIEGEL: I think he's a great candidate. I think he's very attractive. He's very bright. He's a war hero. If there's a weakness, he comes from a part of the country, in particular, a particular state, that is part of the very strong Democratic base that Republicans love to run against.

NOVAK: Do you think that disqualifies him?

SIEGEL: Not disqualifies him, but if John Kerry was a senator from Illinois, he would be in very good shape.

NOVAK: Does the fact that he is such a good debater, is that a plus?

SIEGEL: Well, there's going to be one vice presidential debate. And you know, Benson destroyed Quayle and then it didn't turn the election, so.

NOVAK: Let me give another name that I hear a lot from Democrats. He's clearly the choice of Ed Rendell, the general chairman of the party, and that's the former majority leader George Mitchell, certainly a very smart, heavy guy. What do you think of him as a candidate?

SIEGEL: He's an old personal friend. I think he would be a great candidate, but his main expertise, subject matter of expertise, is foreign policy. Fortunately, our candidate, Vice President Gore, is an expert in that now. So he doesn't bring that kind of issue balance, comes from a relatively small state, but you know, I think he's a very, very substantial man.

NOVAK: What does he bring to the ticket, I mean, politically? I mean, he's obviously -- he was one of the strongest majority leaders.

SIEGEL: We always like to say that the most important criteria is qualification to become president of the United States, and very few people would doubt that George Mitchell would be an outstanding president.

NOVAK: Do you think he'd get along with Gore?

SIEGEL: I think so, yes.

PRESS: Scott, let me ask you about the other governor that's prominently mentioned, Frank Keating, of course -- again, Catholic, a conservative. Comes from a state, though, that Gore's going -- that Bush is going to carry anyway.

So what does he bring? I mean, why all this excitement about Frank Keating? REED: Well, he's pro-life, he's Catholic. He's been tested on the national scene in the Oklahoma City bombing, which he came off doing very well.

He -- he brings some excitement to the ticket in the sense of Bush is going into this campaign with a four-, five-, six-point lead. He's got about 200 electoral votes. He doesn't need a risky call here. He needs a safe bet. For the first 72 hours everyone is going to look at this decision, say it was a good decision, and then they're going to move on to the top of the ticket.

This is not an event that lingers on and on in a campaign.

PRESS: He's also got a reputation: Some of the reporters in Oklahoma call him "Governor Pop-Off," because, you know, he shoots from the lip. And he early in the campaign urged Governor Bush to come forth with all the details about any possible drug use in his wild youth. He later retreated. But can't that be used against Bush if Keating's on the ticket? I mean, Gore will role that tape over and over again.

REED: I don't think so. You know, a lot of the liberals call Keating Governor Pop-Off, because when he does pop off, he usually hits them hard and he hits them right in the duck...

(CROSSTALK)

... or right in between in the eyes. And I don't think that's a negative at all. I think it's an asset.

NOVAK: I think -- I would think the last thing Al Gore wants to talk about is drug use.

SIEGEL: Al Gore.

NOVAK: Yes.

(LAUGHTER)

Do you think you know who -- do you think you know who Al Gore will pick? Well, go to cnn.com/crossfire to play allpolitics' veep stakes game and try to predict the Democratic vice presidential nominee. And we'll be back with this very, very critical high-level information to help you decide after these messages.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

NOVAK: Welcome back to CROSSFIRE.

There once was a time when the vice presidential nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties used to be picked in the dead of the night at the end of their national conventions and then get a few lines in the next morning's newspapers. No more.

Since the suspense is gone out of selecting the presidential candidate, we're absolutely fascinated by trying to figure out the identity of the running mates, or at least learn a little about the possibilities. We have pressed into this arduous duty Mark Siegel, who is former executive director of the Democratic National Committee, and Scott Reed, who was manager of the Dole for President Campaign in 1996 -- Bill.

PRESS: I don't know about you, Scott. I'd like to go back to those conventions where the delegates made the decision.

REED: It would be a lot of fun.

PRESS: It would be a lot of fun.

The United States Senate is the other place. Rumor has it that the governor is looking. Two people come to mind, of course. First, Chuck Hagel: comes from a state with only five electoral votes Bush is certain to win, yet at the same time here's an independent, sort of a maverick Republican, supported John McCain. He kind of brings that along. Got a great bio, won two Purple Hearts in Vietnam, a successful businessman. And he does know something about foreign policy.

High on the list, do you think? Is he your No. 1 pick?

REED: I think he's in the top three, probably the top two, because I think Bush would like his story. He's a self-made man. He's gone out and become a millionaire on his own, elected in 1996. He's been in Washington long enough to understand Washington, but he really hasn't been poisoned by the Potomac.

And again, part of Bush's campaign is that he's an outsider. He's going to bring a breath of fresh air to Washington. There will be bipartisanship. There will be new folks. And I think Hagel fits that model.

His downside is Bush doesn't know him, and his independent streak may scare them a little in Austin.

PRESS: So I mean, do you think he can provide this inside and outside number that Bush seems to be playing to?

REED: I do, I do. And I think that's why they're taking a serious look at him. And he's a very attractive -- you know, has an independent streak. He's McCain without McCain a lot of people say. He's picked his fights with the leadership. And I think that's something that's attractive.

PRESS: All right. The other senator, Fred Thompson. I mean, if they're in competition, here's Fred. I mean, of course, he's Gore's home state, so you provide that embarrassment. He's got the foreign policy experience. He would certainly keep the finance scandal issue alive with the Buddhist temple and all that stuff. And he's his own celebrity, you know, a Hollywood movie star as well as being a senator.

Does he outrank Chuck Hagel, do you think? REED: He doesn't. I think Hagel outranks him by a little, but at the end of the day, he's the Republican with the most credibility that can take it to Al Gore day in and day out on the finance scandals in '96. He, obviously, being from Tennessee, causes him to have to look over his shoulder and worry about spending time and spending money in Tennessee.

PRESS: So real quickly, for both of them foreign policy. I mean, that's the one area where Bush doesn't have any expertise, despite his trips to Mexico. Does that make it more likely he's going to go for a senator than a governor?

REED: I don't think so. I don't think so at all.

NOVAK: Mark Siegel, before we go down some more names, the AP, Associated Press, took a survey of delegates of the Democratic National Committee, and this -- this was the -- you know, delegates don't mean much anymore. But here's what they picked. No. 1, Evan Bayh, senator from Indiana; No. 2, Senator Dianne Feinstein of California; No. 3, Bill Bradley. Remember Bill? Yes, I know -- he ran for president.

SIEGEL: Bill Bradley?

NOVAK: No. 4 -- I love the No. 4 -- Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson.

Now, without -- without going into detail, does any one of those have a chance of being on the ticket, in your opinion?

SIEGEL: I think the Evan Bayh candidacy makes sense. If we look at the electoral college map, we see a triangle from Pennsylvania to Michigan to Missouri, and that's really going to be the battleground. And ultimately, we know we'll hold each other's base. We'll hold the base. And it's going to be fighting for that middle ground, that middle triangle. And Evan Bayh and Dick Durbin come from that area.

He's young, he's attractive, he's articulate, he's a good governor. He might help win those 12 electoral college votes, but also could help him in the area.

So I would think he's -- he's in play.

NOVAK: Now, let me give you a name that wouldn't have even been in the mix in past years. He's Jewish, he's from New York, he's a multimillionaire, he's never run for office: former Secretary of the Treasury Robert Rubin. But I've had a lot of Democrats tell me he's the best candidate.

The mayor of Chicago, Richard Daley, a pretty good politician, says they ought to do Rubin. What do you think?

SIEGEL: It's a nonconventional but inspired choice because it really puts it to the -- to the Republican Party and to the American people. It makes the election a plebiscite on the Clinton-Gore economic miracle. And this man, Mr. Rubin, was the man who was in charge.

NOVAK: Would he say yes if he was asked?

SIEGEL: I don't know.

NOVAK: What do you think?

SIEGEL: I would think if the vice president said that the party needed him, the country needed him, he probably would...

NOVAK: And you think he'd be a good choice?

SIEGEL: ... as you would.

SIEGEL: I think he would be a very good choice, yes. I think he would be a good choice.

A non-conventional -- we're going to carry New York by a million and a quarter votes, putting someone who's Jewish on the ticket is potentially risky. But I think it makes the economy the clear issue, and that could be very helpful.

NOVAK: Let me give you -- let me give you another Jewish possibility, a guy who has run for office, Joe Lieberman, senator from Connecticut.

SIEGEL: Great man. Great man.

NOVAK: Might he go on the ticket?

(CROSSTALK)

SIEGEL: The vice president hasn't shared his views with me.

NOVAK: What do you think?

SIEGEL: I think Joe Lieberman is an outstanding man.

NOVAK: Well, is he risky?

SIEGEL: Well, he comes from a region in the country and a state that we should carry. And does -- you know, he is a new Democrat.

NOVAK: Let me just go quickly on Evan Bayh. You have said some nice things about Bayh; Patricia Ireland -- you've heard of her -- National Organization for Women...

SIEGEL: I have heard of her. Yes, I know of her.

NOVAK: She said -- one thing is, she's very picky -- she said, I think Bayh is very bad.

SIEGEL: No, I think she's very wrong.

NOVAK: Is that a veto? SIEGEL: I think -- no, she does not have a veto over Vice President Gore's selection. Bayh's record on women is outstanding. There is one issue where he has some disagreements with Ms. Ireland...

NOVAK: That's on partial-birth abortions.

SIEGEL: Yes, on every other issue he's down the line with women and with feminists.

PRESS: Scott, I want to ask you: Is there anyone of these Democrats that have mentioned that you, if you were the chief strategist for this campaign, you would not want to see? I mean...

REED: I'd be worried about Graham. I think Florida is a state that the polls are very close right now, tighter than everybody seems to think. And I think the combination of Gore running on cleaning up the Everglades and Democrats scaring senior citizens about Medicare, and prescription drugs, and HMO reform -- combination with Graham, who is a very popular...

NOVAK: Let Mark give the same answer. PRESS: OK, but I want to quickly -- I want to quickly ask you about some of the ones we haven't mentioned -- can we -- I will, Bob, I will, Bob, OK -- please -- whether these guys are off the list: John Kasich, Christine Whitman, Elizabeth Dole, off the list?

REED: Non-starters in the final phase here..

PRESS: Now, is there one of these Republicans that you would not want to see on the ticket?

SIEGEL: Yes, and that's Tom Ridge. I think he slam dunks 23 electoral college votes. I think he broadens Bush's appeal to moderate voters, to soccer moms. I think it would be a very dangerous choice for us.

NOVAK: Quickly, Mark, if it is the end of the game, if we are going into Los Angeles 10 points behind, does Bill Bradley make sense?

SIEGEL: As much as I like him, I don't think so. I mean, if he had done substantially well in this race -- but no, I don't think so.

PRESS: Well, we solved that problem. Let's go onto the next.

And Scott Reed, thanks so much for joining us.

REED: Thank you.

PRESS: Mark Siegel, great to have you here.

Bob Novak and I, we'll have some closing comments on all these guys, coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) PRESS: Do you have your own theory on the perfect running mate? Well, try them out on tonight's guests. They are going to hang around the CNN chat room at cnn.com/crossfire.

Bob, do you realize that Bob Graham has filled out three pages of his diary since the beginning of this show?

NOVAK: You know, and that is -- that is -- I don't know if he can handle that. I like Senator Graham. He's a good fellow and he really does make sense from an electoral -- but I'd say there's a lot of people -- not Mark Siegel -- but there's a lot of Democrats who think they can't carry Florida anyway, even with him.

PRESS: Yes, but I don't think this diary thing will hurt him. But I'll tell you, you know, I remember -- you remember more than I -- but I remember Spiro Agnew. I remember Bill Miller. I remember Dan Quayle, some strange choices. Anything could happen and the party could still survive. But if I had to guess, it would be Bob Graham and Frank Keating.

NOVAK: Well, they're front runners right now. You know, there's only -- time -- I -- this is my tenth national election -- there has only been one guy who made a difference, and that was Lyndon Johnson in 1960. There are two people, both Republicans, who could make a difference this time, Colin Powell and John McCain. Powell will -- absolutely won't do it. McCain could be talked into it.

PRESS: He would be tough.

From the left, I'm Bill Press. Good night for CROSSFIRE.

NOVAK: From he right, I'm Robert Novak.

Join us again next time for another edition of CROSSFIRE.

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