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WorldView

Will Middle East Peace Process Ever Regain Momentum?

Aired October 22, 2000 - 6:13 p.m. ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ANDRIA HALL, CNN ANCHOR: Turning now to our coverage of the crisis in the Middle East, we're joined by Mark Tessler, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, and a political science professor at the University of Arizona. Mr. Tessler also has written extensively on the conflicts in the Middle East.

Mr. Tessler, thanks for joining us on WORLDVIEW.

MARK TESSLER, DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES: My pleasure.

HALL: Let's talk about the latest political stance from both sides, the emergency Arab summit yielded a resolution condemning Israel and calling for a punitive diplomatic action against Israel. Where does that leave things now from the Arab perspective?

TESSLER: It's probably not going to leave things very different from where they've been. I think both sides are trying to send messages to the other side indicating that there are consequences to failure to move toward peace, failure to deal with the violence in the streets.

The Arabs are trying to say, you've had increasingly good relations with us, Israel has peace treaties with a number of Arab countries, they have commercial relations with a larger number of Arab countries, and there are countries who are trying to say that if you're not responsive to Palestinian needs and if you continue to accuse violence against Palestinians, this is going to be called into question. But whether that message actually has a lot of credibility and will result in any significant changes, that's less certain.

HALL: Remains to be seen.

Israel's Ehud Barak calling for a time-out in the peace process, but one of his senior advisers saying to CNN that, that time-out does not necessarily mean the process is frozen. What does it mean to you?

TESSLER: Well, I think it's the same thing. I mean, the Israelis and Barak, in particular, are sending messages back and they're trying to tell the Palestinians, and the Arabs more generally, but especially the Palestinians that there are also consequences, there are consequences to feeling to respond to what Israel views as a serious offer of compromise with respect to Jerusalem and other final- status issues, that the -- Israel holds the Palestinians responsible for starting and escalating the violence, and Israel is also concerned that Arafat may issue a unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood.

So Israel is trying to say that there are consequences, and the time-out reflects the possibility that there will be a separation, that there will be a breakdown in some of the areas where Israelis and Palestinians cooperate. The Palestinians may not be able to come into work in Israel, as they have in the past. There is also the possibility that Israel might annex some of these territories and that they might enter into a national unity government.

HALL: Let's talk about the national unity government, because Ehud Barak is saying that perhaps -- perhaps within a couple of days he will be closing in on including Ariel Sharon and the Likud party. What message is he trying to send there, one of unification?

TESSLER: Well, I mean, there is the domestic political agenda, and he's under a lot of criticism in Israel for -- on the right, for having made some offers, and more generally, for not having been able to deliver the peace that he was elected to deliver -- there hasn't been meaningful progress. But he's also sending a signal to the Palestinians that he may go down this route. It would be very unfortunate for the peace process and I think would bring an end to the peace process, it's more or less at an end now, but it would make it that much more difficult to revive.

So he's telling the Palestinians that, you know, I -- you might leave me no alternative except to form this government and what might that lead to. It might lead to expansion of settlements, it might lead to more annexation of territory, something that you don't want, so you should give me some ammunition to show that I have an alternative. That's not how the Palestinians would see it, but that's part of his calculation, and so the Arabs and the Israelis are sending messages back and forth.

HALL: So both sides posturing and sending messages that they hope will be taken very seriously.

Mark Tessler, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Arizona, thanks for joining us on WORLDVIEW.

TESSLER: Thank you.

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