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Gallup Poll: How Do Americans View the Current U.S. Economy?

Aired February 2, 2001 - 2:42 p.m. ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

NATALIE ALLEN, CNN ANCHOR: More proof of a slowing economy form the Labor Department this morning. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in January is up by two-tenths of 1 percent over December. The national unemployment rate is at 4.2 percent, marking a 16-month high. But the Labor Department also says that a quarter- million new jobs were created during the same time period. Well, in recent weeks, several big companies have announced big job cuts, which does have a lot of people worried.

Joining us now with more about that: Frank Newport, the Gallup Poll editor-in-chief.

Frank, what have you been asking this time?

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, GALLUP POLL: Well, we asked a lot of questions, Natalie. We have over the years.

And my interpretation, really, looking at the data, is Americans are confused. Right now, they're not sure whether we are coming or going in the economy. But there are signs they're worried that we're going, so to speak. First of all, we're not anywhere like we have been in the past. This is a very, very important chart because it represents the percent of people whom, when we asked, "What is the most important problem facing the country?," come back and tell us, without prompting, it's jobs or unemployment.

And look how high that has been in the past. Back in 1977 and in the early Reagan years, 1983, over half of Americans -- 53 percent -- spontaneously said it's jobs. Our number-one problem: We don't have enough jobs. That's been going down. And just a week or two ago, it was all the way down, in 2001, to just 4 percent. So we're not anywhere like where we were in terms of Americans saying: We have this great crisis in terms of unemployment.

Now we can look at another positive measure along the same lines. This time we've compared back to January of '92, when Bush the elder was about to run for reelection. And look a this. "Rate the current economy" was the question; 87 percent -- that red bar -- back then said we were bad, negative in terms of the economy. Now that number is way down to 33 percent. A majority of Americans right now say: Hey, the economy is still all right.

But the change we have noticed over the last several months is when we asked Americans to look forward, to say what's going to be happening, is it going to be getting better or is it going to get worse? Back then, in '92, 71 percent said it was getting better. It's not quite so bad now. But look at this. It's gotten pretty negative recently. We've got over half of Americans saying they think the economy is getting worse. And when we asked Americans straightforwardly -- working Americans -- "Are you worried you could lose your job?" -- that's the key question -- we now are at 23 percent.

That's the figure there. By comparison, back in January of '92, when the economy -- as we showed you a moment ago -- was much worse perceptually, that number was up to 36. So it's not as high as it was. But we think, Natalie, that this 23 percent -- after all, one out of four workers -- is incorporating some of that negative anticipation. What we'll be watching in the weeks to come: Is this number going to go up? And is the rating of the current economy also going to get more negative?

That would really be the troublesome sign. Natalie, that's where the public stands -- back to you.

ALLEN: All right, we'll all try to feel positive. Maybe that will help things. Thanks, Frank.

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