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What Is the Biggest Challenge Facing President Bush Tonight?

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JOIE CHEN, CNN ANCHOR: To underline now that harsh and long shadow that may be hanging over Mr. Bush tonight, even some of his harshest critics admit that some of former President Clinton's finest moments came in his addresses to Congress. And of late, as Bruce Morton noted, for good or ill, Mr. Clinton has dominated the media coverage.

All that being said, what is the biggest challenge facing Mr. Bush tonight? Joining us today from Seattle, presidential historian Richard Shenkman.

Richard, thanks for being back with us. Talk to us about the mission for Mr. Bush tonight.

RICHARD SHENKMAN, PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: Well, the temptation for the audience is to review this like it's some dramatic opening of a Broadway play. And if that's the standard, Bush probably isn't going to do very well because he is not known to be a great performer on the world stage. He doesn't do as well in these formal presentations as Bill Clinton did or certainly as good as Ronald Reagan did.

On the other hand, his aides have been suggesting that, you know, we ought to the have low expectations for him, and maybe that will help him here, the same way as it did during the presidential debates.

CHEN: Is there a little bit of graciousness for a president on his first time out. I mean, his first time since the inauguration speech, of course, but his first time up on Capitol Hill formally as the new president? Does he get a little leeway here?

SHENKMAN: He gets a little bit of a leeway, but there's a problem that he's got. Unlike Ronald Reagan, who came into office with three big goals, if you remember. He was going to increase defense spending. He was going to cut taxes and he was going to balance the budget.

Reagan only needed to get two out of those three things accomplished to be regarded as a success, and he did. He got defense spending increased. He got taxes cut. And the problem of the debt, well, we could delay that and delay that. We weren't going to worry too much about it and the public gave him a pass on it.

With Bush, he is putting all of his eggs in one basket. He is saying we need this tax cut and we need a $1.6 trillion tax cut and he's been very firm about that.

CHEN: It's that dollar amount. It's that dollar amount that you say is going to be difficult for him.

SHENKMAN: That's right. He's pinned it on a specific number. Politicians usually don't like to spin a particular number because they can get knocked off. So, the media can very easily call this a failure if he gets $1.4 trillion or only one trillion or if the Congress shoves down his throat a $2 trillion tax cut.

So, he's got that kind a problem. You know, John Kennedy once lambasted a speech writer who had put a specific number in a speech. Kennedy hauled him into the office afterwards and he said, never again hang a specific number around my neck because I can't wiggle out of it if events forced me to do so.

CHEN: You talk about some of these great names, orators, speakers that we have heard, of course, held up, Clinton, Reagan, Kennedy. Of course, all of these figures -- just as a final thought here today, does Mr. Bush, I mean, we know he's going to go out and speak to the country later in different sessions in several state later in the week. But does he have a chance to win the hearts and minds with some sort of passionate cry tonight?

SHENKMAN: Well, he's already got the hearts of the American people. He's up about 60 percent in the Gallup poll that I saw this morning. So he's not doing badly there. His favorable ratings are very, very high; higher than Reagan and Clinton at this point in their presidencies.

So he's got that. But what he doesn't have is the country on specifics, on issues. We like the guy. We don't like his stand on issues. That's what the polls are showing so far.

CHEN: Richard Shenkman, presidential historian, joining us from Seattle today. Thanks very much.

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