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CNN SUNDAY MORNING
U.N. Top Weapon Inspector En Route Back to Baghdad
Aired November 17, 2002 - 07:41 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ARTHEL NEVILLE, CNN ANCHOR: The United Nations top weapons inspector is on his way back to Baghdad, to begin a new assessment of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. If Iraq fails to cooperate, it could face war.
Joining us now to talk about it is retired Major General Don Shepperd, our military analyst.
And I want to say a good early, early morning to you, general. You're out in Arizona, so it's kind of really early out there. I'm not even sure -- what time is it there? It's 7:42 in the East coast.
GEN. DON SHEPPERD (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: It's too early for me to look. I don't want to depress myself.
NEVILLE: You don't want to know, exactly. Listen, let's get right to it. Iraq's military strength, how long would it take the U.S. military to wipe out Saddam's army?
SHEPPERD: Well, it's unknown. Basically, they're about half the strength that they were during the Gulf War. We're much stronger than they are. All that would lead you to believe would be a very quick victory. That's not necessarily so, because clearly what Saddam would like to do is drag us into house to house, street to street fighting in Baghdad. That's what we would like to avoid.
The air war itself early on should be shorter than the 37 day air campaign that we saw. And you're likely to see a simultaneous attack by land, air, and sea much earlier than you did during the Gulf War, Arthel.
NEVILLE: And is that something that they learned the first time around, which is why they're changing the strategy this time?
SHEPPERD: Well, you would always like to do that. But basically what you're going to try to do early on is you're going to attack the early warning radar. You're going to take out the eyes and ears of Iraq. You're going to go against command and control, early warning radars, surface to air missile sites, air fields, and enable the ground forces to move in much quicker.
And you're also likely going to see a psychological warfare campaign at the same time that you see special operations against selection targets.
So I think it's going to be shorter and quicker than before, but that does not mean it will be easy.
NEVILLE: And of course, Iraq is not going to take this lying down. Let's talk about Iraq's defense or offense, as however you want to take a look at that. What can the U.S. military expect?
SHEPPERD: Well, first of all, you have your own plan, but your own plan only survives the first shot. And then you have to react to what the enemy does. Last time, the enemy allowed us to build up for six months, and then attack at the time and place of our choosing.
You must always be aware that may not happen this time, that you could be attacked while you're building up and moving forces. And also, there's a possibility that you could be attacked by weapons of mass destruction. So you have to be ready for all of that.
We were ready last time. We may have to be ready earlier this time, Arthel.
NEVILLE: But this time, we keep reading in the news and hearing in the news about nerve gas and other biological weapons. That makes the average American a little bit nervous. And those who have sons and daughters going on there, going over there to Iraq, they want to know how will this affect the campaign?
SHEPPERD: Yes, you're always nervous when you go to war. Now nerve gas is a chemical warfare agent, not a biological warfare agent. We know how to fight in a chemical environment. And the way you do it is you wear chemical gear. You breathe filtered air through a mask, you cover your skin, and then you decontaminate if you're exposed to the agent.
So we know how to do that. Biological is a little different. And it's scary. Although you still do the same thing, breathe through respirators, cover your skin, these things work over time and are much more insidious, and you're not sure exactly what biological warfare agents they have.
We are -- most of us protected against anthrax by inoculations, but other toxins, this is a murky difficult area. We've also made it very clear to Saddam, and we're making it clear to his lieutenants that if those things be used, they would face the -- perhaps the worst from the coalition in reaction. And they will be held responsible after the war.
NEVILLE: OK, general. We will see you a little bit later in the show. Thanks so much for joining us at this point.
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