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Post Primary Coverage

Aired January 28, 2004 - 01:00   ET


CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening. The man who calls himself "The Comeback Kerry" certainly lived up to that label Tuesday night.
The junior senator from Massachusetts notched his second victory this primary season, winning in a walk in New Hampshire.

Good evening, I'm Carol Lin. In the next hour, we are going to bring you the highlights of Tuesday's big primary. The big headline is John Kerry who is now two-for-two following last week's big win in the Iowa caucuses. His aides are calling Tuesday's victory, quote, "historic."

Howard Dean, who once held a commanding lead in the Granite State, wound up the runner up Tuesday night. He called it a solid second, saying his camp did what it needed to do after finishing third in Iowa.

Wesley Clark, too, looked like a strong contender in recent weeks and looks like he's going to finish third.

He's very close to John Edwards, currently in fourth, barely, but the North Carolina senator seemed delighted with his showing and predicted his, quote, "extraordinary momentum" would lead to victory down the road.

Finishing fifth in New Hampshire was Senator Joe Lieberman. Despite the poor showing, he pledged to continue his campaign.

Here's a look at the numbers. Winner John Kerry captured 39 percent of the vote. He finished 13 points ahead of Howard Dean, who took home 26 percent.

There you see Wesley Clark and John Edwards in a neck and neck race for third. Clark has 12 percent of the New Hampshire vote. Edwards also has 12 percent.

Joe Lieberman took home 9 percent.

So, the candidate who appeared dead in the water several weeks ago is suddenly the man to beat. John Kerry added more momentum to his rejuvenated campaign Tuesday night and now has two slashes in his primary win column.

When the victory was sealed Kerry thanked his New Hampshire supporters. He also issued a warning to all the political entities he says are in bed with the Bush administration. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I have a message. I have a message for the influence peddlers, for the polluters, the HMOS, the big drug companies, that get in the way, the big oil and the special interests who now call the White House their home.

We're coming, you're going, and don't let the door hit you on the way out.


LIN: It's not the last time you're going to be hearing that. CNN White House correspondent Kelly Wallace has been following the Kerry campaign and she filed this report a short time ago.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aides are using the word historic to describe what happened here, how John Kerry from neighboring Massachusetts was more than 30 points behind Howard Dean back in December, 17 points behind ten days ago. How he threw all his resources into Iowa and ended up winning there, and then winning handily here in New Hampshire.

Taking you a bit behind the scenes, an adviser said that John Kerry was working the phones up until the polls closed and that he just couldn't believe it when his wife tried to tell him the race had been called for him.

The senator coming out and delivering a rousing speech thanking his family, volunteers and New Hampshire and saying he has just begun to fight. And Kerry got to work on that fight right away doing a series of interviews with aides in some of the seven states holding contests one week from today.

Aides say that beginning on Wednesday he will be running television advertisements in all of those states. For now, though, the senator will be heading to Boston. Aides hope he will get some rest before getting back on a plane on Wednesday heading to Missouri and South Carolina and the five other states that will now be taking center stage.

With the Kerry campaign, Kelly Wallace CNN Manchester, New Hampshire.

LIN: Now Howard Dean led by as many as 30 points at one time, but saw his front-runner status evaporate in recent weeks. He settled for second place in New Hampshire but appeared un-phased by Kerry's back-to-back victories.


HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: For those of you who think that America needs a president who is willing to stand up for what's right, not just what's popular, we are all together again -- stand together all of us. To those of you who believe the best way to beat George Bush -- in fact the only way to beat George Bush -- is to stand up to him all the time -- not just when it's convenient, not just some of the time...


LIN: CNN Senior political correspondent Candy Crowley has been tracking the Dean campaign.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Howard Dean told this cheering, stomping crowd we did what we had to do tonight. Maybe so, but it's not what they expected to do. All day long Dean staffers said they thought they'd have a single digit loss to Kerry, and that they said would be a victory, and that Dean was down so far after his Iowa loss and his concession speech.

In his speech here tonight Dean stuck to the issues; he let the crowd do the screaming. His campaign says he is going on to those seven states where next Tuesday -- but now it begins to get tricky. Where to spend the money, where to spend the time.

And there is added pressure now on the Dean campaign. It will be very difficult to move on if next Tuesday there is not a win so far Dean has a third and a second in his column but only a first will do on February 3 to keep the money coming in.

Candy Crowley, CNN, Manchester, New Hampshire.

LIN: Now with almost all the votes in, retired general Wesley Clark's campaign blitz in New Hampshire appears to have paid off just enough to squeak him into third place. Clark told his reporters he won't slow down until the last buzzer sounds. Those are his words and the stakes could not be higher.


WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Our party has to offer a vision for America. A vision that will keep us strong abroad and safe at home. We must beat George W. Bush.


LIN: It's of course General Clark's first political campaign. CNN's Dan Lothian has been covering it.

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Retired General Wesley Clark is clearly pleased with the final numbers here in New Hampshire. He is now in South Carolina kicking off his two (UNINTELLIGIBLE) tour. Before leaving, though, he spoke to his supporters.

He was clearly energized, telling them that never underestimate the determination of a soldier when fighting for his country. He went on to say that the battle for this campaign is far from over.


CLARK: Four months ago, we weren't even in this race. We had no money, we had no staff, we had no office. All we had was hope and a vision for a better America.


LOTHIAN: Clark thanked all the volunteers who helped him here on the ground in New Hampshire. He said this fight in the Granite State has made him a more determined candidate than ever.

Dan Lothian, CNN, Bedford New Hampshire.

LIN: For the bigger picture from this frenzied race we turn to the numbers and the latest tracking polls. Senior political analyst Bill Schneider joins us now to explain the story behind those digits.

Bill, 39 percent of the vote for John Kerry -- a big win for him tonight. Is New Hampshire basically saying that he is the man to beat George W. Bush?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: That's right; Bush played a major factor in the Kerry victory. Let's look at how it happened. There are two kinds of voters in New Hampshire.

You're thinking smart and stupid? No. I'm talking about issue voters and strategic voters.

Among voters who said issues were more important, Kerry fought Dean to a draw. Kerry had domestic issues, health care, jobs. Dean had the war in Iraq. And those voters split right down the middle.

It was the strategic voters who gave Kerry his edge. The people who said we think it's more important to defeat President Bush than to express yourself on the issues. Among voters who said defeating Bush was their objective, and that was a lot of Democrats here -- Kerry had a very large edge. Look at that -- 56 to 16 over -- well I think that should be Howard Dean but also over Wesley Clark.

Kerry got a solid majority of voters who said they were voting to defeat President Bush.

LIN: And within those voters, was there any particular profile? A particular block of voters that seemed to turn out for Kerry?

SCHNEIDER: Well, what was most important to him was moderate voters. Howard Dean said that he could appeal to moderate voters because he was a fiscal moderate, but in the end the moderate vote wasn't even -- wasn't even -- evenly split at all. The moderate vote went overwhelmingly as we see here for John Kerry over Howard Dean.

Kerry was the one who appealed to moderates. Dean got the liberals, but the moderates who are very important here in New Hampshire -- they were almost half the voters in this Democratic primary -- they voted for John Kerry.

LIN: So Candy Crowley was reporting earlier that Howard Dean desperately needs a flat out number one win in the contests coming up on February 3. Seven states are at stake. So how does this play into that contest, the numbers that you are seeing? SCHNEIDER: Well it won't be easy. We just saw Dean did very poorly among moderate voters and you know what happens? New Hampshire is a very liberal state. As you go to the South and Southwest -- places like South Carolina, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arizona, you find even more moderate voters in the Democratic primaries.

So it's going to get a lot tougher for Howard Dean. You don't see many states there on February 3 that looks good for him. Maybe Arizona, maybe New Mexico, but he's going to have a hard time winning anything on February 3 and if he doesn't win any state after all these primaries, it's going to be tough for him to stay in this race.

LIN: Bill, when you look at the demographics of those seven states what does it mean for the seven candidates still running for example, John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, Wesley Clark? Any of them -- could any of them look promising and go their way for a win?

SCHNEIDER: Well, each of them has done pretty well in some of those states. Joe Lieberman claims he has a leg up in Delaware. It doesn't count for much but look, a win is a win. John Edwards is doing very well in South Carolina -- he was born in South Carolina. He's a native son, he's a Southerner. So I think he has the edge there.

Wesley Clark is reported to be doing well in Oklahoma; he's put in a big effort there. Chance he could win Oklahoma.

But the big state is Missouri; that has the most delegates -- that's wide open now that Dick Gephardt is out of the race. Howard Dean is going to find it very hard to compete in Missouri because he ran a very negative campaign against Dick Gephardt and those Gephardt people continue to resent him. I don't see anything going for Howard Dean in Missouri.

Arizona, there is a possibility, lots of candidates running hard there. Dean may have a chance. One reason is they have an early vote by mail in Arizona. A lot of people have already voted and Howard Dean has a well-organized effort in that vote-by-mail campaign. So, look, maybe he can win Arizona, but that's about the best I think he can do.

LIN: Bill, in your analysis of the people turning out to the polls, what is their mood about this campaign this time around? What is it that people are really looking for and how are they feeling about this election?

SCHNEIDER: Well, the word is angry. We ask people what is your view of the Bush administration -- angry or dissatisfied or satisfied or happy? Angry. Half of the Democrats said they were angry.

Kerry and Dean split the vote among those who said they were angry at Bush. Dean was supposed to be the angry guy but, you know, the mood of the voters at least in these Democratic primaries is very simple. Liberals are angry because they feel bullied.

They feel bullied by the Bush White House by the Republican Congress, by the conservative talk show hosts, by the growing -- what they perceive as the growing conservative influence in the media. They feel pushed around and they want to push back.

That's what attracted a lot of them to Howard Dean, but then they thought twice about it and said wait a minute, Dean doesn't have a lot of experience, maybe he doesn't have the right temperament. In the end, the way to get back at the bullies may not be to punch them in the nose; it may be to nominate someone who can outclass them. And that's what they see in John Kerry.

LIN: All right, doing pretty well there. Thank you very much Bill Schneider.


LIN: All right, in case you're just tuning in John Kerry is two- and-oh after Tuesday's win in New Hampshire but what does that mean for the rest of the field? We're going to take a closer look at the candidates and how they prepare for the next challenge for the race for the nomination.

Robert Novak is going to join us from Manchester.

And, a bit later a history lesson from the Granite State. How some of the biggest names in American politics fared throughout the years in the New Hampshire primary.



ANNOUNCER: In 1992, Bill Clinton placed second in the New Hampshire primary and used his strong finish to gain new momentum.

BILL CLINTON: New Hampshire tonight has made Bill Clinton "the comeback kid."

ANNOUNCER: He was the first candidate to win the White House without winning New Hampshire since 1952; the year the primary began listing candidates on the ballot.


LIN: Now that some of the numbers are in on some of the candidates may be thinking about what is next and some may be thinking about dropping out of the race, who knows?

CROSSFIRE co-host Robert Novak and CNN political analyst Carlos Watson join us from Manchester to look at where the primary leaves the Democratic presidential hopefuls.

Good evening, or good morning, to both of you.


CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning. LIN: I know it's been a long night. Bob, I just want to get the Republican's point of view of what it was like to be at the Kerry campaign headquarters tonight.

NOVAK: Well it was very, very exciting -- a lot of people there -- they knew they had a winner. But I would like to have been in Washington with the Republicans because they were in mourning.

They have been praying for Howard Dean, believe me, I know this for a fact. They were -- they were praying for Howard Dean to win because they thought he was easier to defeat and they know well enough that John Kerry is hard.

Now, Carol this race is now John Kerry's to lose. He has to shoot himself in the toes and he is not a toe shooter. He has to make the kind of silly mistakes that Howard Dean and General Clark made over the last two weeks to lose and all the primaries coming up on February 3 are inclined to John Kerry's favor on top of the fact that he has the momentum coming out of a very big win. This was a huge win in New Hampshire.

The Democratic Party may have found its nominee and he's a very strong nominee I think.

LIN: Carlos what mistakes could Kerry have made along the way do you think?

WATSON: Well I think as Bob said absent a major meltdown a Tom Eagleton like meltdown back in 1972 -- Tom Eagleton was picked to be the vice-presidential nominee and there was a discovery that he had undergone some mental treatment and ultimately he got taken off the ticket.

Absent that or an Edmund Muskie who in 1972 -- I guess we've got to go back 32 years in both cases here -- where you cry or you do something that seems particularly unusual -- unlikely for him to stumble here.

And coming February red there's seven contests and if John Kerry's able to carry a majority of those or maybe even not just four but maybe five or six -- I think this could be the shortest nomination battle we've seen yet.

Al Gore won the nomination effectively after essentially 12 primaries over the last four or five contests it's averaged about 20 primaries. But he may win it after only five or six so this could be the fastest.

NOVAK: The -- the Kerry team would never admit this, Carlos, but they are hoping for sweeping the board on February 3. Even though in the -- they are behind in at least one of those primaries. In South Carolina they are behind John Edwards and right now they are behind in, I believe in Oklahoma, they are behind General Clark.

WATSON: But you were right before about the bounce. The bounce not only in terms of the media exposure but money. I mean, he raised a million and half dollars after his first win. You can only imagine he'll raise three or four times that -- he'll run ads everywhere in these states and he'll get lots of free media.

NOVAK: Right, he is -- now Carlos -- I reported on INSIDE POLITICS last week -- a lot of people disputed me -- that the Dean people were running short on cash.

They are -- they spent so much money in Iowa and New Hampshire and they are not able to contest all these February 3 primaries. See, New Hampshire was just critical. Just absolutely critical to Dean. They had to win here at least -- maybe if they had a close second it would help a little bit.

But they really needed to win because this state is made for Howard Dean and the February 3 states are not made for Howard Dean.

WATSON: I won't agree with you that right now that momentum is so strong that John Kerry is in a great place. I think what's going to happen is because all the other candidates realize it's do or die now on February 3. Second and third is not good enough any more. I think instead of seeing John Edwards and John Kerry team up against Howard Dean, I think you'll see John Edwards shed his Mr. Nice Guy image.

I think you'll see Wesley Clark, the old soldier, come out fighting, and I think you'll even see the Republican Party in a variety of ways come after John Kerry in these February 3 states.

NOVAK: I disagree with you on one point. I don't think John Edwards is going to shed the nice guy. That is -- that is -- that is his proposal. I thought John...

WATSON: Oh, you think he's going for the vice-presidential nomination? Because if he doesn't shed it, in my mind, that's a signal that you want to be a vice-president. If you really want to be president he's got to get in there and tussle, otherwise Kerry's going to run away with him.

NOVAK: He's not a tussle and I think it was a very disappointing performance for John Edwards here. It didn't -- he -- he had a little magic in it for him in Iowa. The magic didn't come across the country. Now he is ahead in the polls in South Carolina, but this momentum of Kerry is such that it might carry into -- it might produce a victory for him in South Carolina.

WATSON: I'll tell you one thing, Bob and Carol, that stands out that a lot of people don't know.

In five of the seven contests that are coming up, the minority population in those states is twenty-five percent or more. Very few people know it. That's very different than New Hampshire and very different than Iowa where it's kind of five percent or less. And so I only say that to say that Al Sharpton could not only resonate in South Carolina but in Delaware people don't know this -- Delaware is 20 percent African-American so and the primary vote could be 30 percent or 40 percent. Could be more. LIN: Carlos, what is...

NOVAK: So the big state is Missouri.

LIN: I'm sorry, I was just wondering, what is -- Carlos, what is keeping Al Sharpton's campaign going at this point?

NOVAK: Al Sharpton.


WATSON: Hey, Carol, whenever I have a doubt, I talk to the smart guy I know, Bob Novak. Bob's right -- I mean, the reality is that the Reverend is not running if you will a field operation. Right? He's doing interviews, he's seen at the debates. And every now and then he makes other significant speeches.

NOVAK: He's having a good time, too.

WATSON: He's having a good time, and he's -- you know, in South Carolina, you know -- did you hear what he said the other day? Quoting from a Ross Perot and George Wallace he said send them a message.

NOVAK: You see the Republican Party would have picked Sharpton and Kucinich off the debate schedule and Carol Mosley Braun as well but the...

WATSON: You say Gary Bauer and who?

NOVAK: They kicked them off -- they kicked all those guys off if they didn't win primaries. Believe me.

WATSON: Carol.

LIN: Yes.

WATSON: I think Bob is right that this process is coming to a close and the question is can John Kerry avoid being defined as another Massachusetts liberal, as another Michael Dukakis.

That's what he's got to be able to avoid. If he can avoid that and be defined more along the lines of a John F. Kennedy going back 44 years he'd be in better shape.

NOVAK: The one thing he cannot change, Carlos, is his voting record, you see. That is -- that is the problem. He's got all those votes for big spending, for tax increases, for gun control, for all the things that he didn't want to talk about and in the -- in the general election. And he said well I voted for welfare reform. That's one.

LIN: You know what we're going to pick up on that point right after a quick break gentlemen because I just know if I don't step in here we could go all night.

We are coming back to the both of you so stay right there.

In the meantime, he made quite a statement in Iowa and despite finishing fourth he is upbeat for South Carolina. John Edwards, Carlos and Robert were just talking about him. Well he's rallying his troops and walks away from New Hampshire with his head held high. We're going to recap his numbers.

And a closer look at what the results mean for each of the candidates. Everyone claiming some sort of a victory but who really wins? We're going to head back to Manchester for more analysis with Carlos Watson and Robert Novak when we return.


LIN: I'm Carol Lin here at the CNN Center in Atlanta. We're going to go back up to Manchester, New Hampshire where we have two of our best standing by to give some analysis to tonight's results.

Carlos Watson, a CNN political analyst, and Robert Novak, part of our CROSSFIRE team here at CNN.

Gentlemen, do you see any turnaround strategies formulating now that John Kerry has so much momentum going into the February 3 primaries? Any turnaround strategies from the other candidates?

NOVAK: The worst thing I have heard from Howard Dean was that he is thinking of skipping most South Carolina and most of the February 3 primaries and going around -- right on to two big primaries where he thinks he is leading -- Michigan and Washington.

That is a really dumb tactic. Because if you want to be nominated you don't skip primaries, you win primaries. And to skip seven primaries, or to give them once over lightly, would really be a huge mistake in my opinion.

WATSON: I have to agree with Bob, Carol, here. Literally the only opportunity here and this is at this point I agree with Bob the chance is going to happen are very small. But the Clark, Edwards and Dean literally have to cooperate together each try and pull off a couple of states announce February 3 as a failure for Kerry because he only wins one or two states and have it tossed wide open. That's unlikely to happen given the amount of money he's going to raise and the media exposure but that would be the only opportunity.

NOVAK: I don't think he can do it. One thing we should say before we leave is that this was an example that far left of ideology just doesn't play in New Hampshire in Iowa or in America. The only group that -- the only sub-group that Dean carried was the very liberal group in New Hampshire that's 15 percent of the electorate. If you move to the left you know what they call you? A loser.


WATSON: That's why I love Bob Novak, that's what I love, Carol. Even though I love Bob that's not completely right. The reality is -- the reality is that just like Al Gore did in 2000 where he adopted a populous rhetoric of his challenger Bill Bradley you were seeing John Kerry adopt a populous rhetoric and not only the rhetoric but interestingly enough the tactics of Howard Dean campaign. Did you see him calling today for people to go to Did you hear him saying I'm going to fight to the end? Did you hear him saying...

LIN: Yes -- well he finally broke out of the sound bites. You know, he finally -- people were saying that at the polls, too, that finally he just stopped talking like a politician and started talking like a human being.

NOVAK: But he is -- his image is not part of the left, and I'll tell you something else, Carol and Carlos if he goes far to the left and he tries to be a tall Howard Dean he is going to get whacked by George Bush.

WATSON: I agree with -- I -- so, here's what Bob's saying is right. Bob is saying that he's going to make sure that he uses the Clinton formula and that while he appeals to the base with strong populist rhetoric on a couple of issues including the death penalty including middle class tax relief including reform of education, he's going to move towards the center and you know what's going to be extraordinarily interesting here Carol I predict that John Kerry is going to try to track to the right of George Bush on some foreign policy issues.

NOVAK: What I really liked was him saying tonight, in an interview with CNN, he said, on gun control, he said, "I like to Hunt and I own guns," you know.

LIN: But he said he never...

NOVAK: I mean, the Democratic Party has completely abandoned gun control.

WATSON: The Republicans are acting like Democrats, the way they talk about education and healthcare, and Democrats in some ways are acting like Republicans. Again, it's a closely divided country, very much 50/50.

LIN: He said he's never been tempted to shoot a deer with an AK47, so there was a lob to the left, OK.

WATSON: Not me, but Bob maybe.

LIN: All right, you two, I know you need to catch up on your sleep. It's been a very long night. Thank you very much for staying up for our special coverage, Bob Novak and Carlos Watson. We'll be talking to soon.

Well, Wesley Clark wasn't the only candidate who spent a lot of time preparing for New Hampshire. Joe Lieberman also put in his time, hoping to turn the tables in his favor. How will he react to his fifth place finish? And what will it mean for his campaign? And what was hot and what was not when it comes to the campaign ads. We're going to take a look when we come back.



UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): Richard Nixon holds the record for winning the most New Hampshire primaries. The first time was in 1960, but he lost the election to John. F. Kennedy. In 1968, he won the primary again. He went on to get the party's nomination and defeated Vice President Hubert Humphrey for the presidency.

Nixon's third win came in 1972. He easily won the nomination and defeated George McGovern by one of the widest margins ever.


LIN: The three top finishers in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary are all sounding upbeat about their numbers and the future of their campaigns, especially Senator John Kerry, who followed his surprise victory in the Iowa caucuses with a double digit win over Howard Dean in the granite state.


KERRY: This feels really wonderful because it's been an uphill battle, as you know. We came from way behind and turned it around, and I'm extraordinarily grateful to the citizens of New Hampshire for listening and for keeping their hearts and their minds open.

Tonight I think was a victory of people who want to stand up to powerful interests in our country that are really walking away with the store at the expense of the average person.

DEAN: The reason we're going to win the nomination is because of you, because sooner or later all Americans are going to learn what you already learned, that the biggest lie told by people like me to people like you at election time is that if you vote for me, I'm going to solve all your problems. The truth is, the power to change this country is in your hands, not mine.

CLARK: We're heading south, we're heading west, and we ain't slowing down until the final buzzer sounds.

These last four months have been the start of an incredible journey. Today was just the first battle in our campaign to take America back.


LIN: Now Senator John Edwards may have been the candidate with nothing to lose going into New Hampshire. He looks like he's in fourth, and now heads to South Carolina where his support seems to be much stronger.

That reality certainly wasn't lost on Edwards and his supporters in New Hampshire.


EDWARDS: And now we're going to take this energy and momentum that we saw in Iowa, this extraordinary energy and momentum that we have seen in New Hampshire, and we're going to take it right through February 3, and we're going to see great victory on February 3. Yes, we are.


LIN: CNN'S Suzanne Malveaux has been covering the Edwards campaign. She filed his report a short time ago.


SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The Edwards camp, of course, trying to put a good face on this, Senator Edwards saying that he was pleased with his fourth place position, that he felt it was a strong position. Why? He explains that three other candidates were New Englanders, two from neighboring states, that they did not believe that he could take on the organization of Dean and Kerry.

They did, however, take on Clark, gave him a run for his money. Clark did not compete in Iowa and was running on his military record. But it is clear that Senator Edwards is looking forward to South Carolina. That is going to be critical for him. It's his birthplace. He's leading in the polls there. He's also looking to Okalahoma as well as Missouri.

One key number here is that Edwards did win over 70 percent when it came to favorability, more than any of the other candidates, but in the low teens when it came to electablity. That is a big challenge that he is going to have to overcome.

Suzanne Malveaux, CNN, Merrimack, New Hampshire.


LIN: Now some are writing off Joe Lieberman's campaign after his fifth place showing in a state where he campaigned hard. But the Connecticut senator told CNN's Wolf Blitzer earlier that he is not bowing out of the race.


SEN. JOE LIEBERMAN (D-CT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm not dropping out because there's a virtual split decision for third place, and no one thought that I would have ended up this close to Wes Clark and John Edwards. A week ago, the polls had me at about 1/3 of what I came in with, so we closed strong.

And we're going to carry on the fight, and we're carrying on te fight because I have a cause here. It's more than a campaign. I am the one mainstream Democrat in this race who can provide party leadership and national leadership that is as strong in defense of our national security as it is in fighting for social justice and equal rights, and I think that's the balance that the American people need and our party needs to have a chance to defeat George W. Bush


LIN: Lieberman's campaign says he'll stay in the race, at least through next week's primaries.

Jeanne Meserve is following that campaign.


JEANNE MESERVE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Joe Lieberman is characterizing his fifth place finish as a three-way split decision for third place. He says, "The people of New Hampshire put me in the ring and we're going to stay here."

He said that he spoke to supporters in all of the February 3 caucus and primary states tonight, and all of them urged him to stay in the race, and he will do so. However, snow in the east is forcing a change in his itinerary. Instead of traveling first to Delaware, he will be going first to Oklahoma.

Now his campaign staff believes that more moderate electorates in some of those states will be more receptive to Lieberman's mainstream Democratic message. Clearly he was a bit too conservative for the mainstream of the Democratic Party here in New Hampshire and independents did not vote for him in the numbers that he had hoped and needed.

Jeanne Meserve, CNN, Manchester, New Hampshire.


LIN: History tells us the New Hampshire voters always have their say.


GARY HART, FMR. DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: New Hampshire voters are cantankerous, they're independent, they make up their own minds, and they're also smart.

LIN (voice-over): But they may not always be right. Bruce Morton takes a trip back in time to look at the track record of the New Hampshire primary, and it's destination everywhere for the candidates from here on out. Where they're headed next and what to look for, when our coverage of the New Hampshire primary continues.




UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): Campaigning in New Hampshire can take a devastating toll, even if the candidate wins the primary.

In 1972, Senator Edmund Muskie took to the steps of the Union Leader building to denounce attacks by the newspapers editor William Lobe (ph).

SEN. EDMOND MUSKIE, FMR. DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: By attacking me, by attacking my wife, he has proved himself to be a gutless coward.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Days later, Muskie won the primary, but his campaign never recovered from the emotional defense. George McGovern, who came in second, went on to win the Democratic nomination.


LIN: When it comes to primaries, the tiny granite state is famous for surprise finishes and its fondness for political underdogs.

Our Bruce Morton takes a look back.


BRUCE MORTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): New Hampshire voters are contrary and they live to surprise you.

1952, a Tennessee senator named Estes Kefauver beat President Harry Truman in the Democratic primary. Truman decided not to seek reelection. Mr. Republican Robert Taft campaigned in the state, which voted for Dwight Eisenhower, the NATO commander who never set foot in it.

The same kind of thing happened in 1968. Democrat Eugene McCarthy, with an army of volunteers, campaigned hard against the Vietnam War. He lost, but it was so close President Lyndon Johnson decided not to run again.

1972, Democratic frontrunner Ed Muskie said that we reporters were setting a standard he had to meet after George McGovern gave him a scare in Iowa.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They tell me that I'm fighting against a percentage that they haven't even agreed upon yet.

MORTON (on camera): Muskie himself has said that what counts is simply winning, votes and delegates. But the margin does make a difference.

(voice-over): He won, McGovern was second and the eventual nominee.

1976, Jimmy Carter, who had won Iowa, claimed New Hampshire and was the nominee, the Republicans narrowly voted for their president, Gerald Ford, over challenger Ronald Reagan, but in 1980, Reagan, who had lost to George Bush in Iowa, won big here.

(on camera): In fact, Ronald Reagan didn't just beat George Bush here, he buried the field.

RONALD REAGAN, FMR. U.S. PRESIDENT: I was surprised at the tentative victory, delighted by it.

MORTON (voice-over): Jimmy Carter turned back a challenge from Edward Kennedy from next door Massachusetts, but of course he lost to Reagan in the fall.

1984, Gary Hart lost Iowa to Walter Mondale, but won New Hampshire, contrariant (ph) again.

HART: New Hampshire voters are cantankerous, they're independent, they make up their own minds, and they're also smart.

MORTON: 1992, Bill Clinton overcame sex scandals and draft dodging revelations to finish second, the self-styled comeback kid.

BILL CLINTON, FMR. U.S. PRESIDENT: I'll be there for you until the last dog dies, and I want you to remember...

MORTON: 1996, Bob Dole cruised in Iowa, but here...

PAT BUCHANAN (R), FMR. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Do not wait for orders from headquarters. Mount up, everybody, and ride to the sound of the gun.

MORTON: Of course Pat Buchanan won, and embarrassed some pollsters in the process.

And four years later, of course, John McCain thumped frontrunner George W. Bush by a whopping 18 points. The same day, Al Gore beat Bill Bradley by 4 points and that was it, Bradley never won a state.

What's changed? More of us newsies, still contrarian (ph), and maybe losers aren't as gracious nowadays as Fred Harris, a senator whose candidacy died here in 1976.

SEN. FRED HARRIS, FMR. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So let us love this stage and change itself and say, what else may come, that this at least was good. Thank you very much.

MORTON: And if you don't know who's going to win, you do know one thing. 1988 New Hampshire poet laureate Donald Hall.

DONALD HALL, POET LAUREATE: The day after the primary, everybody is gone.

MORTON: And some who live here will breathe a sigh of relief.

Bruce Morton, CBS NEWS, Manchester.


LIN: Very funny, Bruce, because back I the day when he was actually covering some of those candidates on the New Hampshire trail, Bruce actually was a correspondent for CBS. Now, of course, he's the national correspondent for us, CNN.

All right, campaigning for the New Hampshire primary is up close and personal, but that didn't stop Howard Dean from pouring money into television. Just last week, Dean shelled out twice as much for TV ads as the next big spender.

Now in the week of January 18, Dean spent about $1,153,000. Clark spent $644,000, Lieberman about $625,000 and Kerry almost $607,000. And John Edwards, $426,000.

So do these political ads actually make a difference? Well, Jennifer Coggiola looks at their effectiveness.


ANNOUNCER: Howard Dean spoke out to oppose the war and Bush's economic policies.

JENNIFER COGGIOLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Softer wardrobes and positive messages, a consistent theme in recent ads.

JENNIFER DONAHUE, ST. ANSELM COLLEGE: so I think you see a kinder, softer Dean in this ad. You've got Dean and Kerry both in barn jackets in their latest round of ads, and I think everyone is trying to look like a New Englander.

COGGIOLA: A casual look that political consultants believe could appeal to a key group all the campaigns are targeting.

VAUGHN VERVERS, "NATIONAL JOURNAL": Everybody is after the women's vote. John Kerry has been very successful in attracting the female vote.

ANNOUNCER: What if we could have a president...

COGGIOLA: Unlike his previous black and white ads, looking presidential and historical, General Clark is now changing focus.

DONAHUE: Children, education, family, family values, domestic policy. I think they're trying to flush out the domestic side of his resume and soften his tone, with the sweaters versus the suit.

COGGIOLA: In a recent John Edwards ad, simple snapshots showcasing his strengths.

DONAHUE: They're going with his natural good packaging, his good looks and his youth.

COGGIOLA: Suffering from what some have called Gore fatigue, Lieberman no longer uses the vice president in his ads.

DONAHUE: The fact that Lieberman is associated so closely with Gore, having run with him last time, Lieberman has really suffered from that.

ANNOUNCER: 1,000 independents just joined...

COGGIOLA: And now is more directly courting the independent vote, keeping the message positive.

DONAHUE: Negativity doesn't seem to be working this ad cycle, we found that in Iowa.

COGGIOLA: As Richard Gephardt proved, attacking fellow Democrats doesn't help.

VERVERS: What we saw was negative ads backfiring on both the person it was aimed at and the person running it, and I think that's one reason that we haven't seem more of them.

WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm Wes Clark, and I approve this message.

COGGIOLA: With the new campaign finance reform laws requiring each candidate to appear at the end of the commercial, many are avoiding being associated with negativity.

VERVERS: As the field shrinks from six candidates to five, to four, to three, you're going to see them draw much sharper distinctions between one another. You're going to see them attack one another a little bit more, at least on the policy side, and you're going to have a much more sharp-edged debate.

COGGIOLA: Jennifer Coggiola, CNN, Washington.


LIN: Well, New Hampshire is now a memory, but the campaigning is far from over. What is next, and where to for the candidates looking to make up lost ground? We're going to get out the roadmap when we come back.



UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I voted for Kerry and I had a difficult time, actually. Any of the top four potential candidates I would have voted for, I think.



UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Healthcare policy, fiscal conservative, a person with integrity.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm voting for Joe Lieberman.


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think he's a man of integrity.


LIN: In the New Hampshire primary, voters have spoken, but the 2004 campaign still has so many interesting twists and turns ahead, where a lot more of the delegates are at stake.

After January's cold stops in Iowa and New Hampshire, from here the candidates will have to diversity their efforts. In February, more voters will pick their favorites. Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and South Carolina are all holding primaries next week and 269 delegates are at stake.

Between February 7 and February 24, another 552 delegates are up for grabs as voters in 11 more states will go to the polls.

And of course, March will certainly roar in like a lion this year, at least on the political scene, with Super Tuesday. 1,151 delegates are at stake. On March 9, for example, primaries will be held in Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.

First up, though, on February 3, five primaries and two caucuses with 269 delegates at stake.

CNN's senior political analyst Bill Schneider returns to look at the challenges ahead.


WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): Starting tomorrow, the race goes everywhere. February 3, seven contests in all parts of the country.

The hottest race, South Carolina. The first southern primary. Anything can happen here, except Dean one source tells CNN.

South Carolina is crucial for the two southerners in the race, John Edwards and Wesley Clark. Al Sharpton is looking for a breakthrough in South Carolina with its large African-Americans vote. Has John Kerry got anything going for him in South Carolina? We asked CNN's political editor.

JOHN MERCURIO, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: He's a military veteran in South Carolina obviously has a huge population of military veterans.

SCHNEIDER: One poll shows native son Edwards leading in South Carolina with Kerry a close second, followed by Sharpton and Clark.

Another poll also shows Edwards on top with Kerry second and Sharpton much lower. Note the high number of undecided voters.

Arizona is another hot contest. Four candidates have made a big effort there. Democratic sources say Clark spent the most on ads. Joe Lieberman spent a lot of time in Arizona. Dean's got a big vote by mail effort in a state that allows early voting. Kerry is counting on Veterans. Democrats say Arizona has more than 1/2 million of them.

One poll shows Kerry leading in Arizona with Clark right behind and a high undecided. Another poll shows Kerry leading in Arizona with Clark right behind, and a high undecided.

Missouri is wide open since Dick Gephardt pulled out last week. No ads or polls yet. Dean's got special problems in Missouri.

MERCURIO: I talked yesterday with a lot of Missouri Democrats and they're still angry at the way he campaigned against Dick Gephardt in Iowa.

SCHNEIDER: Missouri then looks like a fight between Kerry and Edwards.

Clark's been making a big push in Oklahoma. A poll shows that Clark's the frontrunner with Edwards second. The state party chairman tells CNN he's disappointed that Kerry seems to have written his state off, but the polls still show Kerry running a close third. Momentum can do that for you.

We could see victories for everybody next week. Kerry's best hope for a win, Missouri; Edwards, South Carolina; Clark, Oklahoma; Dean, Arizona; and Lieberman, he's reported to be strong in Delaware.


LIN: Here is a quick look at what's ahead for the top four candidates in the coming days.

John Kerry will stay in New England on Wednesday and could possibly travel to St. Louis for a rally on Thursday. Then it's off to South Carolina and then a stop in Delaware on Friday.

Howard Dean heads back to Iowa on Wednesday followed by trips to Wisconsin and South Carolina by the week's end.

Wesley Clark will be joining the gang in South Carolina for Thursday's debate.

And, finally, John Edwards will make scheduled stops in Oklahoma and Missouri before making his homecoming in South Carolina.

Now a quick reminder. Candidate Joe Lieberman will join the AMERICAN MORNING team on Wednesday morning in the 8:00 hour, Eastern time, to talk more about New Hampshire and his plans ahead. Please join Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien for AMERICAN MORNING, between 7:00 and 9:00 on Wednesday.

I'm Carol Lin at the CNN global headquarters in Atlanta. Thank you very much for watching this special live coverage of the New Hampshire primary vote. In fact, I'm going to be back at 5:00 a.m. Eastern with all the news from overnight.


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