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CONNECT THE WORLD

Corrective Rape; Saif Gadhafi to Surrender?; Racist Abuse in the Premier League; Flooding Worsens in Bangkok; Grand Palace and Chatuchak Market in Jeopardy; Some Bangkok Residents Refuse to Evacuate; Flooding and Weather Outlook for Bangkok; Big Interview: Simon Mann, Part Two; Changes in Succession Rules Proposed for British Monarchy; Difficulties With Succession Changes; Parting Shots of Moscow's Bolshoi Theater Reopening

Aired October 28, 2011 - 16:00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ZUKISWA GACA: He came back and said to me, "You know what? I hate lesbians. And I'm about to show you that you are not a man as you are treating yourself like a man."

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MAX FOSTER, CNN ANCHOR: They call it corrective rape in South Africa. But for victims trying to seek justice, it's just the sort of a long- running nightmare.

Live from London, I'm Max Foster.

Also tonight, as England's football captain finds herself in the center of a race row, we'll look at whether the beautiful game has returned to the dark old days.

Plus...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVID CAMERON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: Put simply, if the duke and duchess of Cambridge were to have a little girl, that girl would one day be our ken.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOSTER: Centuries of tradition are overturned, as women get equal rights to the throne. Tonight, a royal expert tells me it's not as simple as it sounds.

First, though, it's an horrific crime that often goes unreported. But tonight, one young woman has the courage to speak out. She's a victim of what's known as corrective rape -- the brutal act of attempting to change a woman's sexual orientation through violence. These crimes are taking place in South Africa even though gay marriage is legal there and gay rights are constitutionally protected.

Nkepile Mabuse joins me now live from Johannesburg -- Nkepile, you've been looking into this.

And it's horrendous.

NKEPILE MABUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Really, it is. It is a worrying phenomenon. And as you said, Max, this in a country where gay rights are enshrined, protected in -- by the constitution. And it is this constitution that is hailed the world over as being a progressive constitution when it comes to mattes of sexual orientation.

But it is in this country, Max, that we found women in -- living in townships in South Africa who say that they are not enjoying these rights that are enshrined in the constitution, that they are subjected to daily abuse by their communities, many of them rejected by their own families, rejected by their own communities.

And by the time these women are raped -- some of them are even murdered, Max -- they have gone through a lifetime of discrimination.

This is Zuki's story.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

MABUSE (voice-over): It was December of 2009, a night 20-year-old Zukiswa Gaca will never forget.

GACA: I went to have some drinks with a friend at one of the pubs there by Khayelitsha. I was staying there.

MABUSE: After drinking at a local bar, Zuki says a man tried to ask her out.

GACA: Then I told the guy no, that I'm a lesbian, so I don't date guys. Then he said to me, "OK. I understand that. I've got friends who are lesbians, so that's cool. I don't have a problem with that."

MABUSE: He was nice to her, so she trusted him. They ended up at a home of one of his friends, a little more than a shack in this neighborhood. That's when Zuki says his mood shifted.

GACA: His eyes were full of anger and he was not the guy that I was coming with, the guy who understands lesbians.

MABUSE: She says he left the room briefly and returned a different person.

GACA: He came back and said to me, "You know what? I hate lesbians. And I'm about to show you that you are not a man, as you are treating yourself like a man."

And I told the guy, "No, I'm not a man. I never said I'm a man. I'm just a lesbian." Then he said, "Now I'll show you that I am a man and I've got the power more than you."

So he came to me as I was sitting on the bed. He came to me and he opened my trousers and took it off. And he opened his trousers and took it off and then he raped me.

At that time, the only thing that was on my mind was to just kill myself after that.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MABUSE: That was, unfortunately, not the first time that Zuki was raped. The first time she was raped, she was 15 years old. She's now 20. But, Max, this time, she's fighting back.

FOSTER: And what are the police doing about it?

Are they looking into it?

MABUSE: Well, Zuki tells us that the first time she went to police station, she was ridiculed by the police officers that -- that were there. She said they asked her, "Are you a man or are you a woman? Maybe you were raped because people don't really know whether you're a man or a woman."

This was not the first time that we heard allegations like this the South African police service. So what we did, Max, is we went with Zuki and a hidden camera to really try and document what a typical corrective rape victim goes through when they report their case to the police.

And this is what we found. It was not only insensitivity, but ineptitude that we found at the police stations.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

MABUSE (voice-over): In more than a year since Zuki's case was opened, she's heard almost nothing from the police. Using a hidden camera, we go with her as she looks for answers.

She's determined to confront her investigating officer -- the third assigned since she reported the rape.

From room to room, building to building, Zuki's required to recount her case as she searches for her investigator. Finally, an answer -- the detective with South Africa's specialized sexual offenses unit is stationed in Gavil (ph), a 30 minute drive from her home.

Despite the sensitive topic, the investigator meets her in a wide open office -- no privacy here. Another police officer joins in as she recalls details of the horror she experienced. Zuki asks if the police have questioned the man she says witnessed the rape. Her investigator goes through his file and admits no statement was ever obtained from the eyewitness believed to be the suspect's friend.

At this point, his colleague interjects with a stunning assertion.

SIMON MANN:. I never take a statement from a suspect's friend. The suspect's friend is obviously going to say you are in a relationship with the suspect or that he didn't see anything. The only statements that are important here are the ones from your friend, a neutral person or a neighbor, not someone who was there watching while you were being damaged and he wasn't helping.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

MABUSE: You know, Max, when -- when the police officer talks about Zuki being damaged, I mean it is so vulgar. Damage is actually the closest that -- the word that we found in English that could closely translate what he's actually saying in Insiclasa (ph). In Insiclasa ((ph)), it's a lot more vulgar than that. And we've spoken to lesbian women. We've spoken to human rights groups. And what Zuki experienced there is not isolated.

Max, these are the facts when it comes to this issue in South Africa. Interpol estimates that half of South African women will be raped in their lifetime. The South African government doesn't keep separate statistics for corrective rape and few victims of corrective rape report their cases to the police because they fear being further victimized and re-traumatized -- Max.

FOSTER: It's interesting to see what government is or isn't doing, as you say, you know, this is entirely protected within the law.

So what are government authorities, official bodies, actually saying about this?

MABUSE: We took our find -- findings to the minister of police. We actually played that clip that you've just seen. And this is how he responded.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NATHI MTHETHWA, SOUTH AFRICAN POLICE MINISTER: It is concerning, this one. It makes me feel uncomfortable with all the hopes and all the dreams I had when I raised (INAUDIBLE) unions. It -- it can't be right. People who are responsible have to -- have a case to answer. They have a case to answer. The head of the police, the national commissioner would -- would know how to get to the bottom of this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MABUSE: The minister promised action, but to date, nothing has been done. And what has been worrying, Max, is that while investigating the story and while interviewing ministers in the government here in South Africa, I got a sense that they felt like this was being blown out of proportion and that homophobic attitudes were not really that entrenched in -- in society here.

This is what the justice minster had to say to me when I questioned him about this phenomenon.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFF RADEBE, SOUTH AFRICAN JUSTICE MINISTER: My view is that there are beginning to be a many of those who do not accept what is contained in our constitution. Our courts have been very clear, as well, in pronouncing on these matters emanating from our constitution and also our legislature, our parliament has even gone further in order to promulgate specific laws that guarantees such -- people's sexual orientation, including same-sex marriages, which is now part of our laws in the Republic of South Africa.

MABUSE: How do you then, Minister, explain the increased number of incidents called corrective rape, where lesbians are raped purely because they're lesbians?

RADEBE: That's criminal conduct simple. Those are criminals and have to be apprehended and must face the full might of the law.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

MABUSE: Max, U.S.-based Human Rights Watch has just conducted extensive research into this issue and they're very concerned that the South African government is just looking at this corrective rape as just crime, because they really do feel that the motivation behind these rapes really needs to be investigated and looked into, if they are to be stopped -- Max.

FOSTER: Nkepile, thank you very much, indeed, for joining us.

You can see the full program, "World's Untold Stories: They Call it Corrective Rape," this weekend on CNN, Saturday night at 9:00 in London, 10:00 in Berlin, midnight in Abu Dhabi. Again on Sunday morning, 9:00 a.m. in London, 10:00 a.m. in Central Europe.

Now, like his father, he vowed he would stay in Libya and fight until the death. But it seems that Saif al-Islam Gadhafi is now changing his mind. Coming up, details about new talks over his surrender.

Plus, major allegations -- we look at the issue of racism in sports and how social media has fueled the hype.

And...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I thought they were friends. You know, for them to do absolutely nothing, not even send me a postcard, I just think is an act of betrayal.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOSTER: The British mercenary who wants to see his alleged co- conspirators pay for a failed African coup plot.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOSTER: I'm Max Foster in London.

You're watching CONNECT THE WORLD.

And here's a look at some other stories we're following for you this hour.

Thailand's prime minister says the country is now dealing with the worst natural disaster in its history. Severe flooding is stressing Bangkok and testing the capital's defenses. Runoff the equivalent of 480,000 Olympic sized swimming pools is making its way to the sea through the city back as high tide pushes the water in the opposite direction.

Caught in the middle are 12 million residents. We'll have much more on this story in the next 15 minutes.

Central Peru has been hit by a strong earthquake. It measured 6.9 magnitude, according to the U.S. Geological Survey and hit around 50 kilometers south of the city of Ica, near the coast. There is no immediate report of damage or injuries.

The chief executive of Europe's bailout fund is meeting with potential investors in China, looking for help with the European debt problem. Klaus Regling, head of the European Financial Stability Facility, is expected to hold talks with Beijing's Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China. But he says he doesn't expect any deal during his visit.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KLAUS REGLING, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, EUROPEAN FINANCIAL STABILITY FACILITY: They are interested to finding attractive, solid, safe investment opportunities. And I'm happy that, you know, the bonds have been considered to be in that category in the past and, therefore, I am optimistic that we will have, also, a longer-term relationship because we will continue to provide safe, attractive investment opportunities."

FOSTER: Well, now that Moammar Gadhafi has been killed, the only remaining fugitive in his family may be having second thoughts about life on the run. The International Criminal Court says it's having forward conversations about the surrender of Saif al-Islam, one of Gadhafi's sons.

As Jonathan Mann reports, it could be his safest option.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JONATHAN MANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The world's most famous fugitive may be trying to give up. Saif al-Islam Gadhafi transformed himself from the once friendly face of his father's regime into a bellicose beacon of resistance to the Libyan revolution.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP FROM FEBRUARY 24, COURTESY CNN TURK)

SAIF AL-ISLAM GADHAFI: Plana is to live and die in Libya. Plan B is to live and die in Libya. Plan C is to live and die in Libya.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MANN: Even driving through Libya's capital back in August to prove he eluded capture.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP FROM AUGUST 23)

GADHAFI: Now, let's go. Let's go together to the hottest places in Tripoli, OK?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MANN: Three of his brothers were killed in the rebellion and according to published reports, his three other brothers and sister are in exile in Algeria and Niger. Only Saif is still on the run, wanted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. Given what happened to his father -- captured, killed and then displayed for onlookers in a meat locker, court may be the safest place for Saif.

LOUIS MORENO-OCAMPO, ICC CHIEF PROSECUTOR: If he considers he's innocent, he will be respected here by the court. But also, after he's in -- under the court custody, all the state will also respect certain rules. So he will be, in this sense, have all the rights and be protected.

MANN: The court says Saif won't get a deal. It says informal conversations are underway about his unconditional surrender. That may be the best deal he can hope for.

Jonathan Mann, CNN, Atlanta.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

FOSTER: New York is celebrating the 125th birthday of the Statue of Liberty. Web cams are streaming live video footage from the torch to mark the milestone, giving onlookers a view of the harbor. The monument was a gift from France and became a symbol of hope for millions of people who emigrated to America.

You're watching CONNECT THE WORLD live on CNN.

After the break, it's reared its ugly head in Europe, but is racism alive and well in the English Premier League?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOSTER: Well, it's a story that has sparked a social media whirlwind -- allegations of racist abuse from Premiership player John Terry have become a major online talking point and the claims followed a heated clash between the Chelsea captain and the Queens Park Rangers defender, Anton Ferdinand, on Sunday.

An FAA investigation is underway.

CNN's Phil Black has more.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

PHIL BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Chelsea and England captain, John Terry, is seen exchanging words with Queens Park Rangers player, Anton Ferdinand. These images were taken just moments before the incident that has divided English football, when Terry allegedly screamed racial abuse at Ferdinand. Terry admits using the language but says it was in the context of defending himself against accusations of racism. In a statement, he said: "I thought Anton was accusing me of using a racist slur against him. I responded aggressively, saying that I never used that term. I would never say such a thing and I'm saddened that people would think so."

(on camera): Despite John Terry's denials, Anton Ferdinand has encouraged the Football Association to investigate and it will interview both men to get their versions of the incident. Ferdinand says that he has received great support and encouragement from his teammates and many other professional footballers in pursuing the complaint.

(voice-over): But before the investigation has finished, Chelsea's manager has preempted its outcome, declaring the incident a misunderstanding and his belief that Terry is innocent of wrongdoing.

ANDRE VILLAS-BOAS, CHELSEA MANAGER: For me, it's a -- it's the end of the matter. And it's under FAA investigation and hopefully we can put an end to it.

BLACK: There's been criticized by anti-racism campaigners in the sport.

PIARA POWAR, FOOTBALL AGAINST RESUME IN EUROPE: One would want to see the managers making less or no comment about the issue. Let it -- let the FAA deal with the problem, rather than trying to -- to back their own player.

BLACK: The FAA is also investigating another incident from earlier this month, when Manchester United's Patrice Evra accused Liverpool's Luis Suarez of racist abuse. Once again, people are asking openly, how bad is racism in the game?

NEIL WARNOCK, QUEENS PARK RANGERS MANAGER: I'm not aware of a lot, if I'm honest. I've not come across much in -- in football over the years. It used to be very -- I thought it was very bleak in the -- sort of in the '80s, coming up to the '90s. I thought that was probably the worst period.

BLACK: But campaigners say that was a time when racist abuse was being openly hurled by thousands of fans. These recent incidents, they say, point to a lingering problem -- racism on the pitch, which is less obvious and harder to police.

POWAR: The problem is, within a team environment, you know, people who are seen as snitches aren't seen as being good teammates. They're not very well respected. And thus, this issue has remained hidden for a very, very long time.

BLACK: Now, England's captain stands accused and this incident is seen as a test of the English game's willingness to deal with racism among its own players.

Phil Black, CNN, London.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

FOSTER: Well, as I mentioned, these stories have generated a lot of hype on social media.

Let's take a look at what football fans have been Tweeting around the world.

From Kenya, Jaxxoabu posted this message: "Anton is working hard to get that England armband back to his brother." That's Rio Ferdinand, of course. "John Terry is crooked, but that's too much."

From Wiggin in England, 1Royle the world this: "Hope John Terry is found guilty of racism. The guy needs bringing down a peg. No doubt, the FAA will bottle it."

Talking about the -- the Patrice Evra incident, imagemarine in Thailand says:. "Time that racism in sport was put to bed. This would be a strange thing for Evra to have made up."

Even our own Sugar has joined the debate. He posted: "I just don't get this John Terry alleged racist thing. Anton Ferdinand can shut the whole thing down quickly by saying he did or he didn't."

Well, earlier, I sat down with "WORLD SPORTS'" Pedro Pinto and asked - - I began by asking him about how big a problem these incidents really are in English football.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

PEDRO PINTO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I have to tell you that the fact that John Terry is involved is a huge deal. This is the captain of Chelsea Football Club. The Premier League is the most watched league around the world. This is the captain of the English national team. So it doesn't look good on the FAA at all, because this man is supposed to set an example. And, of course, he hasn't been charged yet. And we should remember that.

But the fact he's involved in these allegations is very negative for English football overall.

FOSTER: And this is a player on player attack. It's not fans attacking the players. So it's slightly different and -- and more worrying.

PINTO: It is. It's a completely different beast, Max, because we've documented many times, even on CNN, we've had specials on how there is racist abuse from fans on players, whether it be making monkey noises or -- or whether it be throwing bananas on the pitch, in extreme cases.

What we've seen recently, with this case, as well, with the case that is also alleged racism with -- with Patrice Evra saying that he was abused by Luis Suarez in a -- in a recent Manchester United versus Liverpool match, this is a completely different story. And it will be interesting to see what is done about it, whether any new rules will be introduced to punish players, and what that punishment is, if it's a suspension, if it's a fine or if e -- it's even more serious than that.

FOSTER: Yes, getting the balance right, I guess.

But the for -- the Football Association, of course, doesn't condone any of this. It's not allowed it to happen.

But does it reflect on the FAA?

PINTO: It does. I think -- I think it does. And it's -- it's something they need to address. There is a precedent to this, Max. And it happened in Spain, where last season, in the Champions League semi-finals, Barcelona and Real Madrid, we had -- we had an alleged case of -- of racist abuse from a Barcelona player, Sergio Busquets, on Marcelo, the Real Madrid defender. And at that point, UEFA decided not to suspend the Barcelona player.

So it will be interesting to see, also using video evidence, which is what the FAA is using now, what UEFA used last year, whether they take a similar stance to UEFA and say hey, this happened but we're not really quite sure how to deal with it, so we're going to let it slide, or if they really decide to -- to make -- make a stand and -- and set an example in English football.

FOSTER: And if you just want to see how people feel about this, you just have to look at social media, don't you?

But is there a sense that that's hype that inflamed this whole situation before it's been investigated?

PINTO: Of course it has, because in the past, you would have a player releasing a statement, a club releasing a statement. So all of that would have gone through a filter.

What you have now in social media and Twitter and Facebook is people just post their thoughts. And if they're particularly angry about something, they can just send it out to the world. So -- so then you have more extreme positions being showed in the media and -- and that, obviously, is not something that -- that the FAA wants to see. It's not something that the authorities want to see, because they lose complete control of the situation when people can just basically say whatever is on their mind.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

FOSTER: Pedro joining me earlier in London.

CNN's coverage of this story does, though, continue with "WORLD SPORT".

Mark McKay will be here in just over one hour's time.

You're watching CONNECT THE WORLD right now, though.

When we come back, under siege and underwater.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SARA SIDNER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: There is another high tide. The highest tide is coming, within the next 24 hours. And people are bracing for that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOSTER: Thailand's capital deals with its worst flooding in more than half a century and there are fears the worst is yet to come.

Then, claims by a British mercenary that Western governments were involved in its failed plot to oust an African leader.

And how changes to laws of the British monarchy could affect Prince Harry and others.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOSTER: This is CNN, the world's news leader.

This is CONNECT THE WORLD.

Let's check now the main news headlines this hour.

No reports of damage or injuries so far after a strong earthquake struck Central Peru. The United States Geological Survey says the 6.9 magnitude tremor hit around 50 kilometers south of the city of Ica.

The International Criminal Court says informal talks are underway for Saif al-Islam Gadhafi to surrender. He's wanted on charges of crimes against humanity and is the only son of Moammar Gadhafi, who's still on the run.

Europe's crisis could be China's opportunity. A day after EU leaders sealed the deal on the debt, the CEO of Europe's emergency fund is meeting with China's finance minister and central bank officials. His mission -- to persuade Beijing to help finance the bail out.

Bosnian police say this man wounded a police officer when he opened fire on U.S. -- on the U.S. embassy in Sarajevo early on Friday. The gunman can be seen with an automatic weapon. Police shot him in the left leg, but hospital officials say he's not seriously hurt.

Disastrous floods in one of Asia's largest cities could get even worse in the next 24 hours. The prime minister of Thailand says Bangkok is entering a critical phase as a new surge of water threatens to submerge the capital.

Bangkok's defenses will be tested by Saturday's highest tide, which is expected to reach four meters. Its outer suburbs already submerged in what's now the nation's worst flooding in almost 70 years. CNN's Sara Sidner is there.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SARA SIDNER, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: We're inside my neighborhood, it's the eastern part of Bangkok. This is where the government has told people that they need them to evacuate.

And you're starting to see people do that. They were supposed to evacuate earlier, but we're seeing now more and more people leave.

This lady has told us that she has run out of money. She is afraid for the safety of her animals. These are her dogs. She's got a few rabbits, there, and she's just trying to get them to higher ground. She's starting to become very, very worried.

That's what's happening in a lot of this area. We are seeing some of the elderly people, also, getting into trucks that the army has brought and jumping in there because their homes are inundated with water.

Just take a look at this water, here. This water right now is about calf-high on me, but as you walk further into this neighborhood -- and let me take a turn here -- as you walk further into this neighborhood, just over there you'll see a home. It's green and blue.

The water is inching ever closer to the window level. It is about up to my hips, here. So, very, very high water that doesn't seem to be receding much here. This water has come and flown in partly from a canal that's overflowed.

The government is very concerned, of course, also about central Bangkok. We were in central Bangkok today. We were in Chinatown. We did see, when the morning high tide happened, we saw water coming into Chinatown, which is right there in the middle of Bangkok.

But then, the water quickly receded. It seems that the drainage systems seemed to be working quite well. And so, the middle of Bangkok and some of the business district has been pretty dry over the past day.

But there is another big concern, and that is there is another high tide, the highest tide is coming within the next 24 hours, and people are bracing for that, the government now opening nine evacuation centers so that people have somewhere to go if the water gets too high.

Sara Sidner, CNN, Bangkok.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FOSTER: As Sara mentioned, Chinatown flooding, there. A tourism hot spot, really, and it's not the only one in trouble. Not far from there is the city's Grand Palace, which is surrounded by water, and the world-famous Chatuchak weekend market will close this weekend.

The timing is critical in all of this. Next month marks the start of peak tourism season. Already the government estimates as much as -- or as many as a million visitors may be deterred from coming to Thailand.

Bangkok's international airport remains open, protected by high flood walls. It also means domestic flights are still operating to Phuket, Chiang Mai, and other popular tourist areas.

Now, many countries such as the UK, Canada, and Australia have been advising against all but essential travel to Bangkok. The US has a travel warning for all areas of Thailand currently affected by flooding.

Despite government suggestions for people to leave, it appears many in the capital are determined to stay put. We spoke to one resident, Danielle Williams, from her home in central Bangkok.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DANIELLE WILLIAMS, BANGKOK RESIDENT: I have been living in Bangkok for three months, now, and where I am now is near to the center of Bangkok, where all the shopping malls are. It's near the Khlong Toei district, and we are pretty safe at the moment. There's not any dangerous flooding where we are.

When it rains, we get maybe flooding in the streets to about ankle deep, and -- but it's really sort of the alpha pod of the city that's really being affected at the moment.

So, people are panicking and they're really stocking up. There's no water left in the supermarkets or in the 7-Eleven.

But people have panicked and they are sort of preparing themselves for a big flood. While a lot of them have stools on the side of the street and they sleep there.

What many of those people are doing that I've heard is that they're actually trying to get to the south of Thailand, where they may have friends or family, and will stay with them.

The government has told people in certain areas of Bangkok city to evacuate, now.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOSTER: Well, Guillermo's monitoring all of this for us from the Weather Center. Guillermo, what advice can you give?

GUILLERMO ARDUINO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: That in three hours or so, we get the highest tide of all, and then the high tides will continue, but it will not be as severe as in three hours. And we go above the 2.5 meter height of the protective barrier of Bangkok.

Remember that the government actually had released a little bit of water to ease the situation overall. The combination now comes with the high tides, because with the high tides, we have the water pushing from the Gulf of Thailand into the coast.

And the rivers and the canals and this complicated network is trying to exit into the Gulf. So, that's why the water cannot exit at all into the Gulf of Thailand, now. And the peak, again, in three hours.

Let's see, also, the situation -- we tried to illustrate it on a graphic here. Remember that 2.5 meters is the level of the barrier around the city of Bangkok, where we have 13 million people at least. So, we are expecting one to two meters of water at worst -- the worst-case scenario.

At the same time, the weather itself is cooperating, because we have a high pressure in place over Bangkok, so the situation is that we are not getting more rain, that's the bottom line.

The size of Denmark is when we talk about how much of the area's flooded, and that is 150 kilometers in width around the area. Again, Bangkok, here, highlighted with the protected area, and the water trying to go down, but it can't.

And basically what we're going to see is one kind of a levee breach, which is called over-topping. It's because we go above that level. Remember that the river that goes -- the major river around the city, it's overloaded with water.

We have not seen erosion yet, but we may see it, because it has never been tested at these levels. So, we're looking at many scenarios, Max, that can happen. We'll test it in just three hours.

FOSTER: OK, Guillermo, thank you very much, indeed.

ARDUINO: You're welcome.

FOSTER: Now, you're watching CONNECT THE WORLD. Still to come, when friends become enemies and enemies become friends.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SIMON MANN, FORMER BRITISH MERCENARY: I thought I was going to be killed on arrival. Everyone had told me, "Simon, if you go to Equatorial Guinea, you're a dead man."

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOSTER: Why a famous British mercenary has changed his allegiances. Our Big Interview with Simon Mann is up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOSTER: Imprisoned, tortured, and then pardoned. Last night, we brought you part one of Becky's Big Interview with British mercenary Simon Mann, the former SAS soldier who was famously jailed in 2004 over a planned coup in Equatorial Guinea.

Now, Mann told us how he stood to take home at least $15 million had the plot been successful. But of course, it was foiled at the 11th hour, and Mann was facing serious jail time, if not death.

The court cases that followed brought the covert world of mercenaries into the spotlight, as this gun for hire used the only weapon he had left, the names of those he claims were his co-conspirators.

And now, since his release from prison, Mann is continuing to point the finger. In part two of his interview with Becky, the retired British soldier alleges that Western government agencies were also involved, including the CIA.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MANN: I would like to say that I am very, very sorry for what I tried to do in 2003 and 2004. I think that the people who were seriously involved in this, and who have not faced justice, I think they should do so.

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Contrition and a hint of vengeance from Simon Mann. The former British commando had been sentenced to 34 years in jail for plotting a coup against Equatorial Guinean president Teodoro Obiang.

MANN: I was invited to lead a coup d'etat against what, so far as anyone could tell and all the sources agreed, was a very bad and ongoing tyranny.

ANDERSON: But the plot was thwarted in Zimbabwe, where Mann and 69 other mercenaries had stopped off to collect weapons. Mann spent four years in a Zimbabwean jail on arms charges before he was extradited to Equatorial Guinea in 2008.

MANN: I thought I was going to be killed on arrival. Everyone had told me, "Simon, if you go to Equatorial Guinea, you're a dead man. And you'll be very lucky if you're not tortured on the way."

ANDERSON: Mann, not only survived but, in November 2009, he was pardoned by the man he'd plotted to overthrow after agreeing to give evidence against his co-conspirators.

MANN: My enemies were, by this stage, President Obiang's enemies. I didn't expect them to jump on white chargers and risk their lives and come charging to the rescue.

But I did expect them to do their best. Or to do something. After all, they're wealthy people, they know Africa very well. I thought they were friends. For them to do absolutely nothing, not even send me a postcard, I just think is an act of betrayal.

ANDERSON: Throughout his five-year bid for freedom, Mann has always claimed he was the manager, not the architect of the plot, and The Boss is how he refers to the alleged mastermind of the coup in his new book, "Cry Havoc."

He implicates not just individuals, but Western governments. The United States, Britain, South Africa, and Spain, he now claims, were aware of the planned coup.

ANDERSON (on camera): This plot, you say, had the tacit approval of others. Western intelligence agencies and the backing, for example, of a European government. Which agencies?

MANN: Well, Spain were very positively behind the coup. They knew all about it, which I first gleaned when I made my first trip to Madrid with The Boss, who introduced me to Severo Moto at a very smart Madrid hotel.

And I said to The Boss, "Are you absolutely crazy? You're trekked in in a bloody great suite here in your own name, and I'm here, booked in by you, in my name. And here we've got Severo Moto, the leader of opposition in exile, wandering in his suit with a couple of his bag carriers.

And The Boss just laughed and said, "Well done, Simon. Actually, that is because, of course, this government, the Spanish government, are behind the coup. They know all about."

ANDERSON: He said that to you. He said they are behind the coup.

MANN: Absolutely. And in fact, he said, "They are offering 3,000 Guardia Civil the day that Severo Moto takes power.

ANDERSON: Which agencies gave tacit approval -- intelligence agencies gave tacit approval for this?

MANN: Certainly in -- shortly before Christmas 2003, I had in my hand a report from a private South African spy, which we knew had gone to South African intelligence, and we knew had gone to the CIA, and was therefore, by extrapolation, was certainly known to the UK.

ANDERSON: You've got no more evidence about CIA involvement, though, than that, have you?

MANN: No. I've got plenty of other cross references and stories, but I've got no prima facie -- I haven't got a love note from them.

ANDERSON: Who was the whistle-blower, Simon?

MANN: I think they were. The CIA. I think that they -- and I say this because I've been told. I mean, there are many aspects of this whole thing that I actually still don't know, and I probably never will. Lots of question marks floating around.

No, I think that what happened at the end was that the CIA asked the Angolan intelligence agency to tell the South Africans to torpedo us. Who then rang up Harare and had us arrested. And I've had that -- that description of events given to me by more than one reliable source.

ANDERSON: Would that make sense, as far as you're concerned?

MANN: Well --

ANDERSON: Why would they have done it, is the question.

MANN: Because all the traces that I can get, and I've had many since being released, indicate that The Boss is a very well-traced -- well-linked bag man for the CIA. And it's unlikely to me that he would have done this operation without that nod and a wink.

So then the question is, well, in that case, why do you have this story as to who blew the whistle at the end? If they set it up, why did they blow the whistle?

And again, I have to say, I'm surmising, here, but I think that what happened was that we'd had one attempt that failed, and then decided to have another go two weeks later. Now, the first attempt rattled a lot of cages.

And I think what happened was that the CIA said, "Wait a minute. This is now getting very, very dangerous. Simon Mann is a lunatic. He's going to have another go, and our fingerprints might be on this. What we have to do -- if we torpedo this coup, we can then go to President Obiang and say, 'Look, we're your friends, and look, we've just proven it.'"

ANDERSON (voice-over): In a statement, the CIA told CNN that "Mr. Mann's allegations are false and baseless."

The South African and Spanish governments have always denied any knowledge of the coup plot, and Downing Street says it does not provide comment on intelligence matters.

But even now, seven years on since the failed coup, Mann is ensuring that this is a saga that won't go away.

ANDERSON (on camera): In the book, you say, "I'm here in Equatorial Guinea to face the man I tried to depose, President Teodoro Obiang, a despot who killed his enemies and then, by reputation, eats them. I'm an insect wrapped up in a spider's web. I am a dead man."

Is it true that you're now working as an advisor to the government of the man that you once thought was a killer?

MANN: No, it's not true. What I'm doing for Equatorial Guinea is what I, up until a few months ago, was doing for the UK, which is helping the police with their inquiries.

Because the government of Equatorial Guinea wants to prosecute other people involve with the coup, as they did me.

ANDERSON: Are you on the payroll of the president?

MANN: No.

ANDERSON: Were you paid to make these visits, though?

MANN: No, no.

ANDERSON: Would you take money from them?

MANN: No. I mean, if he said -- "We want some security consultant fee --"

ANDERSON: You would?

MANN: I would, yes. Why not?

ANDERSON: Your wife Amanda is reported to have actually described Mr. Obiang, the president, as "a lovely, lovely man." When did he morph from a cannibal to a lovely man?

MANN: Well, when he gave me my pardon. And I regard that comment by Amanda as being very good news, because it also implies that she wanted me back.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FOSTER: Simon Mann speaking to Becky.

Now, an historical change to the rules of royal succession. Commonwealth countries say the new laws remove sexism from the British monarchy, but not everyone is happy. A royal expert presents his view, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FOSTER: Well, the Commonwealth nations have decided to scrap age-old laws about who becomes their next monarch, giving royal daughters equal rights to the British throne. The change, which will affect descendants of the Prince of Wales, also means British royals can marry whoever they want.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FOSTER (voice-over): An historic shift is underway in the British royal family after 16 Commonwealth leaders agreed on Friday to strike a centuries-old gender preference law from the books.

British prime minister David Cameron has been pushing for the change for months now, urging reforms that would treat firstborn royal babies equally, regardless of gender.

DAVID CAMERON, PRIME MINISTER OF GREAT BRITAIN: Put simply, if the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge were to have a little girl, that would girl would one day be our queen.

FOSTER: Queen Elizabeth, speaking at a meeting of the Commonwealth heads of state, didn't reference the change directly, but did voice her support for gender equality.

HRM QUEEN ELIZABETH II, UNITED KINGDOM: The theme this year is women innate as the agents of change. It reminds us of the potential in our societies that is yet to be fully unlocked, and it encourages us to find ways to allow girls and women to play their full part.

FOSTER: The queen is in example of the only exception to the current rule. A woman has been able to inherit the throne only if there are no male heirs.

FOSTER (on camera): It's often said that the most successful monarchs in British history have been women, the current Queen Elizabeth, Queen Victoria, for example, so there's no great argument about taking sexism out of the system. The problem is getting the job done.

FOSTER (voice-over): The issue took on greater urgency following the announcement of Prince William and Catherine's engagement last year.

TOM BRADBY, ITV CORRESPONDENT: People are bound to ask -- it's a bit of an obvious question, but children? Do you want lots of children? Is -- see what comes? What's your -- ?

PRINCE WILLIAM, UNITED KINGDOM: I think we'll take it one step at a time. We'll sort of get over the marriage thing first, and then maybe look at the kids. But obviously, we want a family. So, we'll have to start thinking about that.

FOSTER: Prince William's younger brother, Prince Harry, could benefit from the changes as well. For example, if he wanted to marry a woman who was a Catholic, he could do so without giving up his place in line. Under the old rules, anyone married to a Catholic cannot ascend to the throne.

REBECCA PROBERT, LEGAL HISTORIAN: The reason that's bizarre is because you don't forfeit your right to the throne if you marry somebody who subsequently becomes a Catholic.

So the act doesn't actually even achieve what it sets out to achieve. He could marry a Scientologist, a Satanist, a Muslim, or a Methodist, and that would have no impact whatsoever on his right to succeed to the throne.

FOSTER: In order for the new rules to take effect, they'll have to be approved by the individual governments of all 16 Commonwealth realms, which outside Britain range from Canada, to Jamaica, to Australia. And of course, a then new royal baby will have to be born and take his or her place in line for the throne.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FOSTER: That'll be the next story, won't it? Well, maybe.

Let's just take a look at the current line of succession, then. When the first -- when the current queen dies, her oldest child, Prince Charles, will take the throne. Charles's son William is next, and William's brother, Harry, there, is at number three currently.

Now, if William and Catherine have a daughter, here's how things will stand. Charles will still be first, William second, then William's daughter becomes third, Harry goes to fourth.

Let's say William and Catherine had a daughter first and then a son, though. Under the old rules, the younger son would actually become first in line to succession before his sister. So it would look like this, the son would be third despite being younger than his sister at number four.

Now, under the new rules, that older daughter would go up one. She would take her rightful place next in line ahead of her little brother, there.

And if you're wondering how the current queen became the monarch, well, take a look at her family here. Her parents had two little girls, one of them was Elizabeth. And this is when she was at her father's coronation.

Since she didn't have any brothers, she became queen when her father died. She's been on the throne ever since, of course. It just wasn't an issue with her or her son or his son.

So, now's the big test. While changes to the royal succession have been welcomed by Commonwealth countries, other people have raised some concerns, and Charles Mosley is an author who specializes in the British monarchy. He joins me now. Thank you so much for joining us.

CHARLES MOSLEY, AUTHOR, "BLOOD ROYAL": Welcome.

FOSTER: It looks great on -- the detail. But actually, it's so hard to make happen, isn't it?

MOSLEY: Indeed, it is. One of the problems is that it's got to be OKed not just by heads of government of the Commonwealth countries, but in the case of federal countries, such as Canada, all in the provincial parliaments. And the Quebec one could be tricky because they don't like the Brits much, being full of Francophones.

FOSTER: And so they would actually rather get rid of the monarchy, so they wouldn't vote on this. They'd actually go for a bigger attack, as it were.

MOSLEY: They might throw a spanner in the works, and it would be an excellent opportunity for them and other like-minded people to push for further so-called reforms --

FOSTER: Once you've started on it, yes.

MOSLEY: Exactly. This is the problem with the institutions, ancient institutions.

FOSTER: So, Quebec on its own could actually scuttle this whole plan even though Australia, Britain, everyone else --

MOSLEY: Unless, of course, you want the potential for having a different sovereign of Canada 50 years down the line from the sovereigns of all the other 16, 15 Commonwealth countries.

FOSTER: There's talk of Prince Harry taking up the role, there, isn't there?

MOSLEY: Well, there's certainly plenty of royals, and people like Harry need a job. I can think of plenty of other younger royals who might do very well as king of Australia, king of New Zealand, queen of this, that, and the other.

FOSTER: Tell us also -- the other matter here is also that Harry, for example, would be able to marry a Catholic. In terms of British history, Commonwealth history, that's a big movement, isn't it?

MOSLEY: He's always been able to marry a Catholic. What he couldn't do, if he married a Catholic, is ascend to the throne.

FOSTER: Is then become the king.

MOSLEY: That's right. A bit of a quibble. What I think is odd is, if you're going to go down this line of carrying the banner for equality, equal rights, et cetera, get rid of all this disability stuff, why are you insisting on the eldest child? Why shouldn't the youngest child have a look in?

And why, indeed -- and somebody's going to say this sooner or later -- why shouldn't the sovereign him or herself be a Catholic, too?

FOSTER: Because they're head of the Church of England.

MOSLEY: Yes, I know. But why should they be head of the Church of England?

FOSTER: Yes.

MOSLEY: Do you see what I mean? Do you see what I'm getting at?

FOSTER: Yes. And so there's a bit of compromise in there, isn't there? Despite the fact that it looks very simple on the face of what David Cameron said.

MOSLEY: Precisely. And compromise is dangerous.

FOSTER: And some politics involved here?

MOSLEY: Oh, undoubtedly. Because it's going to distract us from these more pressing matters, such as where is our next paycheck coming from around April of next year?

FOSTER: Do you think this is ever going to happen?

MOSLEY: Never say never in politics.

FOSTER: But it's very, very complicated. It's very long-winded, isn't it?

MOSLEY: Yes. And like most political initiatives, I don't think it has been thought out properly.

FOSTER: And prime ministers in the past have been trying to change this over the years.

MOSLEY: They have, indeed. And better prime minsters, or perhaps more experienced prime ministers than David Cameron.

FOSTER: But we shouldn't be too negative, should we? He's got further than anyone else. He's got all the prime ministers together and actually said, right, let's agree on this. They have unanimously.

MOSLEY: Yes, it looks good, I agree. He's good at getting consensus. Is he as good at pushing it through and making it stick?

FOSTER: Charles Mosley, we'll see. One day. Thank you very much.

Now, our Parting Shots tonight are of the reopening of one the world's most famous cultural landmarks, the Bolshoi Theater in Moscow is celebrating its stunning renovation with a gala concert this evening. Before closing in 2005, the Bolshoi was literally crumbling.

The $700 million restoration took six years, overshooting the budget four times, and missing the original reopening date in 2008. But now, the Bolshoi's director says the new theater has no rival. The facelift has been done so that the theater remains as close as possible to the way it looked when it was rebuilt after a fire in 1856.

I'm Max Foster, thank you for watching. The world headlines and "BackStory" will follow this short break.

END