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Deep Water Horizon Trial Delayed; Arizona Gov. Endorses Romney; Latest on the GOP Race
Aired February 26, 2012 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
RICHELLE CAREY, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone. I'm Richelle Carey, in for Fredricka Whitfield. Welcome to a special hour of "CNN Newsroom." We're going to focus on the 2012 presidential contenders in this hour. First though an update of some of today's top stories.
Tomorrow's scheduled start of the Deep Water Horizon oil spill trial has been delayed. It will now begin next Monday in Louisiana. And BP is bracing for a pretty long fight. A judge will have to decide civil liability, who is to blame, and to what extent for that disaster.
More people hurt, more people killed today across Syria. This is the city of Homa where nine people died today in street battles between security forces and anti-government fighters. Violence across the country has not let up, despite today's nationwide vote over whether to change Syria's constitution.
Nelson Mandela, the founding father of democracy in South Africa is out of the hospital. He was discharged today after undergoing treatment for an abdominal ailment. A family member says it was hernia surgery. He's 93 years old. Of course, he was in prison for 27 years for fighting apartheid. He was released in 1990 and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize three years later.
You know what that music means. Now to the GOP race for the presidential nomination. Tuesday is shaping up to be a very important day with voters going to the polls in Arizona and Michigan. So we're watching those two states especially closely. I have two big developments to tell you about.
First, the polls. Heading into the primaries, the latest Gallup poll shows Rick Santorum's ten-point lead over Mitt Romney is all but disappearing. Let's take a look at some numbers. Santorum now registers 31 percent. That is down by two points from Friday. And down five points from Wednesday. Santorum's losses are Romney's gains. Romney is up three points, coming within one percentage point of Santorum.
Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul's numbers stay the same, far below the top two contenders. Now the other big development, Arizona governor Jan Brewer is throwing her support behind Romney. She made that announcement this morning on "Meet the Press." Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. JAN BREWER (R), ARIZONA: He has that pro business background and he has that political history that I think that he would serve America the best of all of the candidates. It was a difficult decision. But I think Mitt is by far the person that can go in and win.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAREY: And, of course, with the Michigan and Arizona primaries just two days away, both GOP frontrunners appeared today on the Sunday talk shows. For Romney it was Fox News Sunday where he, again, blasted the auto industry bailout and the Obama administration's support of it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The result of the president's plan was that we spent several billion dollars before - at a time we didn't need to, number one. And number two, after the process was over, he gave a huge share of the companies to the UAW. That's not the way bankruptcy normally works. He was paying off the people that supported him and that, by the way, are trying to get him re-elected. The right course was for this industry to go through the same kind of bankruptcy other industries have, and if for some reason they needed some government help, that should have come, get them out of bankruptcy, not spending billions that the auto executives went to Washington to receive in the first place.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAREY: OK. On "Meet the Press," Rick Santorum took on President Obama's apology to Afghanistan last week, in the burning of the Korans. An apology he called unacceptable.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RICK SANTORUM (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I don't think the president should apologize for something that was clearly inadvertent. What you should lay out as president, say this was inadvertent, this was a mistake and there was no deliberate act. There was no meant to disrespect, this was something that occurred, that should not have occurred, but it was an accident. And leave it at that. I think you highlight it when you apologize for it. You make it sound like there was something that you should apologize for.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAREY: Not everything, though, on the campaign trail is serious, especially when the Daytona 500 is being run, just two days before a couple of primaries. OK. This is NASCAR. Mitt Romney made a personal appearance. He visited the track a few hours ago, shaking hands, greeting race fans. Rick Santorum is in Daytona too, kind of, not exactly in person, but he has a clear presence on one of the cars at the race. His name is all over car number 26 in bold letters in red, white and blue.
OK. It's time to head to Michigan where cars are key to the economy and Mitt Romney is a native son. But even in Michigan, Romney can't get away from the heat being put on by Rick Santorum. Let's bring in political reporter Peter Hamby. He is in Detroit. OK. Peter, the story today seems to be Santorum's slide. How is that playing out in Michigan?
PETER HAMBY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: Yes, Richelle, after our debate the other night, in Mesa, Arizona, on Wednesday, polls have really tightened. Internal polling has tightened. Consultants polling the state showed that the Michigan race has tightened. Rick Santorum is really battling hard to keep pace with Mitt Romney.
Romney has an edge according to most polls by two or three points. Most people you talk to here in Michigan believe that it is really going to be a nail biter. Arizona seems to be slipping away from Santorum heading in Romney's direction, but Michigan is going to be ground zero for this race on Tuesday night, Richelle.
CAREY: This is Romney's home state. He seems to have the edge in Detroit, but much of the other parts of the state, that is Santorum country. Could you put into perspective for us what it would mean if Mitt Romney lost his home state?
HAMBY: If Mitt Romney lost Michigan, that would be devastating, I think for his candidacy. Look, they're built to go all the way to the convention more so than any other campaign. They got infrastructure in every single state. This is a delegate race for them. But from a narrative perspective, it would be very difficult, just as it would be for Newt Gingrich if he lost his home state of Georgia or Rick Santorum losing Pennsylvania. If you can't win a state that you have central to your political identity, how do you carry forward nationally?
So he's really got a win here on Tuesday night. I mean, Republicans in Washington are already kind of chattering about a brokered convention, although that's a long shot, Richelle, but that's the kind of talk that this has sparked if Romney does lose to Michigan on Tuesday.
CAREY: OK. Mitt Romney was opposed to the bailout. He says that the - the auto bailout. He says that he was for a managed bankruptcy. And that is something he had to talk a lot about since campaigning in Michigan. How has that played out for him in Michigan, the fact that he did not support the auto bailout?
HAMBY: Yes, he's really been kind of stretching to try to come up with a good argument here. What we se is that this will probably hurt him in the general election. Marist and NBC had a poll this week that basically showed in a general election Mitt Romney would lose to Barack Obama. It hurts him here. Obama can sort of credibly claim that he helped turn around the economy - the auto industry.
Right in the primary, sort of a tougher argument to make for Republicans. You know, both Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney have taken strong anti-union positions here. Rick Santorum is basically trying to call Mitt Romney a hypocrite because he supported the bailout of Wall Street but not the auto industry. He's running a TV ad sort of making that case, but that's sort of misleading because Rick Santorum also opposed the federal auto bailout. So that's sort of the dynamic playing out in terms of the auto industry here, Richelle.
CAREY: OK. Peter Hamby, good wrap-up. Thank you very much. Talk to you again soon.
All right. Coming up in a few moments, we'll talk about why gay marriage and abortion trump the economy with some GOP primary voters. Don't go anywhere.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CAREY: Welcome back to this special political hour of "CNN Newsroom." We're focusing on all the presidential candidates. Ron Paul is stumping in Michigan ahead of the primary there, telling voters there it is time for Washington to wake up.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. RON PAUL (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm excited about what's happening because the country has certainly changed. In the last five years I believe it has changed for the better. The number of people now waking up, both young and old, and saying enough is enough really shows that the country is way ahead of Washington.
Washington is still sound asleep. Let me tell you, they don't know you exist out there. That's our job. And that's why a good showing and winning an election and doing well in these primaries is so important. We need to wake up Washington, D.C. for they're sound asleep and they need to hear our message loud and clear.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAREY: OK. Well, polls indicate most Americans think this election should be about the economy. Winning the Republican primary can oftentimes come down to a candidate's stand on social issues. On that front, Rick Santorum seems to lead the pack. Let's bring in our CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein. Ron, it is good to talk to you. Let's talk about social issues.
RON BROWSNTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Hello, Richelle.
CAREY: Hello. Let's talk about social issues. Is that a winning platform for the GOP candidates at this point, especially given where the economy is?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, the striking thing about social issues is that whether candidates talk about them or not, they always exert a big influence on presidential races. If you look at the Republican primary so far, one of the most clear and consistent divides is that Mitt Romney has more trouble with the evangelical Christians than with those who don't identify as evangelical Christians and that socially conservative constituency has moved toward Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum at different points in the race.
It's probably going to be the core of Santorum's coalition, for example, here in Michigan on Tuesday. If you move toward the general election, it really - we really have been living through an important change in our politics over the last 25, 30 years. Each party's coalition is now really held together more by cultural values than by class. How often you attend church is now a better predictor of how you will vote in the presidential election than how much money you make with people who attend church more often more likely to vote Republican. So these issues matter. They are not going to be the center of debate. The economy as you suggested will be front and center, both in the primary and in the general, but cultural values are an important dividing line. We see how they resurface constantly with new issues from abortion to gay rights to even contraception which really have them debating since the pill was approved in 1960.
CAREY: And obviously certain candidates are more comfortable in this realm than others. Let's hear Mitt Romney during our CNN debate this past week talking about social issues, Ron.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROMNEY: When you have 40 percent of kids being born out of wedlock, and among certain ethnic groups the vast majority being born out of wedlock, you ask yourself how are we going to have a society in the future because these kids are raised in poverty in many cases, they're in abusive settings, the likelihood of them being able to finish high school or college drops dramatically in single family homes (INAUDIBLE) to talk about this. When we have programs that say we're going to teach abstinence in schools, the liberals go crazy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAREY: So, Ron, my question is, is this Mitt Romney playing on Rick Santorum's turf and how is that going to play in the general election?
BROWNSTEIN: That's a good point. Of course, first he's got to get there. As I said, the biggest resistance to Romney in this race has come from two quarters. Evangelical Christians who question his commitment to social issues, earlier in his career he was pro choice and of course in '94 when he ran against Ted Kennedy said he would be a bigger advocate for gay rights than Kennedy and the other is the Tea Party side which questions the fiscal issues.
So what you saw there was Romney, as you point out, trying to play on turf that Santorum has talked about for a long time, in fact, during welfare reform in the 1990s, Santorum was probably the political figure most insistent on inserting into the debate family structure and ideas and it was called a family cap back then, preventing women who are on welfare from getting additional benefits if they had additional children.
So this is something he has talked about a long time and he's probably on safer ground with the public on this front. There is concern about the breakdown of the family and what it means both socially and economically than he is on some of the other issues that he has raised such as questioning the 1965 decision that made it - the Supreme Court barred states from prohibiting the use of birth control.
So this is actually terrain that I think all the Republicans will be comfortable talking about and we should point out that President Obama raises this issue as well when he talks about the importance of fatherhood.
CAREY: Right. He has had a fatherhood initiative for quite a few years. Let's talk about Rick Santorum a little bit more. He seemed to steer into trouble during the debate over his support in Congress for no child left behind. Let's listen to this and then I want you react on the other side, OK?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SANTORUM: I have to admit, I voted for that. It was against the principles I believed in, but, you know, when you're part of the team, sometimes you take one for the team, for the leader. I made a mistake.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAREY: Wow, take one for the team. Mitt Romney has gotten a lot of mileage out of nailing him on take one for the team, Ron.
BROWNSTEIN: I tell you if Mitt Romney's president, he's going to be asking a lot of Republican senators to take one for the team starting on day one. I mean what Rick Santorum said is the world you live in as a political figure, but it is striking how many of the initiatives of the George Bush presidency that were attempted to broaden the base of the Republican Party have really come into question in the party since the advent of the Tea Party.
That real kind of back to basics, small government, message. I mean think about it, as recently as 2006, 23 Republican senators with the support of President Bush voted to legalize 11 million illegal immigrants. No child left behind, of course, a George Bush initiative. Not a liberal initiative. Expanding Medicare to include prescription drugs.
In a lot of ways, what you're seeing is efforts that were made in the earlier part of this century, in the last decade to expand the Republican base, really coming under question, and you know, the irony is Rick Santorum finally pointed out today on "Meet the Press," is that Mitt Romney supported no child left behind and is probably still more supportive of it than Santorum is. But this is, real quick, an example of what has been such a successful strategy for Romney.
He has prevented these candidates who are emerging to his right from consolidating that support on the right by raising one or two or three issues that cause those conservatives to have doubts about them, whether it's Perry on immigration, Gingrich on immigration or Medicare or now Santorum on issues relating to labor, earmarks, and no child left behind. He's had a tremendous success at a divide and conquer strategy. We'll see if he can keep it up as we go down the road.
CAREY: So issues that are perceived as a weakness for him, he's pivoting it right back on them. Ron Brownstein.
BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely. CAREY: Ron, thank you so much for the discussion. Appreciate it. CNN senior political analyst and editorial director for the "National Review." Thank you.
All right. Mitt Romney picks up endorsements from two Michigan newspapers, but how is he doing in the polls there? Again, two days before the GOP primary there. We'll take a look when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CAREY: Welcome back to this special edition of CNN. I'm Richelle Carey. Let's continue to delve into the issues on the presidential campaign. Here is what Mitt Romney had to say about his conservative credentials.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROMNEY: I can attest for my conservative credentials by quoting someone who endorsed me in my 2008 campaign. Senator Santorum was kind enough to say on the Laura Ingraham Show, he said "Mitt Romney, this is a guy who is really conservative and who we can trust." And when he came out to endorse me, he said these words, he said "He is the clear conservative candidate." He's right. I'm the conservative candidate and what we need in the White House is principled conservative leadership and I'll bring it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAREY: He says he'll bring it. But Romney is struggling in his own childhood state. A new American Research Group poll has Rick Santorum in the lead in Michigan with 38 percent. Romney follows close behind at 34 percent. Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are a distant third and fourth with 12 and seven percent respectively. So what can we expect in Michigan on Tuesday?
Joining us live, Dave Murray, a politics and education reporter for the "Grand Rapids Press" and Stephen Henderson, editorial page editor at the "Detroit Free Press." Gentlemen, thank you, both, for joining me. Let's start with your paper's positions on Mitt Romney. Dave, let's start with you. Your paper endorsed Mitt Romney, why?
DAVE MURRAY, "GRAND RAPIDS PRESS": Yes, it did. Well, Mitt Romney has business sense that I think appeals to people in our area, our state, of course, is struggling economically. The paper endorsed Mitt Romney in 2008 and they appreciated some of the stances he took as the Washington outsider. I think we looked in that same direction this year as well.
CAREY: And, Stephen, as well, speak for the "Detroit Free Press."
STEPHEN HENDERSON, "DETROIT FREE PRESS": Well, we endorsed Mitt Romney but it was sort of a tepid endorsement. I mean we like the old Mitt Romney, the old Governor Romney, the savior of the 2002 winter Olympics. We're not as enthused about the Governor Romney who we see for the last 12 months make a hard, hard gesture toward the right.
CAREY: OK. Let's talk about why Mitt Romney is struggling in his home state. Stephen, can you speak to that?
HENDERSON: Well, I think there are a couple of things. One is his reinvention of himself, which has happened a couple of times, for Governor Romney. I think voters are mistrustful of that, they're not sure which Mitt Romney we're seeing and which Mitt Romney we would get if we were in the White House. But also, his repeated attacks on the auto bailout. You know, he's not different from the other - the other candidates. They all are against the bailout too. But he keeps bringing it up. And almost kicking dirt in the face of the industry by pointing out that he just wouldn't have bothered to try to save us the way the federal government did. I think that's hurt him here as well.
CAREY: And Dave, do you agree with that?
MURRAY: Yes. Michigan's outside of Detroit, it is a more conservative place, and Senator Santorum's positions on the social issues are - have been very attractive to people in northern Michigan and in western Michigan. He's bringing in the Duggar family to come and stump for him around this side of the state, just before - up until Tuesday. That reflects the social conscious of the conservative base out here.
CAREY: And let's talk about voters in Michigan. What are the issues? Obviously the auto industry. But let's talk about the issues. The top two or three issues that matter the most to voters in Michigan. Stephen, take that question first.
HENDERSON: Well, I think jobs obviously. I mean we lost more jobs than almost any other state in the union during the recession. In fact, we were in a recession nine years before the rest of the state was in a recession. And we never came out of it. And so people here have lost - a lot of people have lost everything. The idea that people need to get back to work, of course, they're doing that now with the auto industry, which is not helping Mitt Romney who is trashing the bailouts. So that's got to be issue number one.
Obviously the federal budget deficit, and the prioritization of spending, is that going to go for entitlements and things like that, those resonate here too. But really it is - this is an economic election for people in Michigan.
CAREY: And, Dave, economic issues certainly, but are you saying there is other parts of the state where social issues matter perhaps as much if not more?
MURRAY: Absolutely. It is almost an underlying issue that is not spoken as much out here. A pollster on Friday told me that Governor Romney's Mormon faith is a reason that seven percent of the Republicans have said they're not going to vote for him. The pollster actually thought the number is actually higher, but folks didn't want to say that. And the close election where all the polls seem to be within the margin of error, that seven percent could be a factor and that's linked directly to the Mormon faith.
CAREY: Quite a few eyes are going to be on Michigan on Tuesday. Gentlemen, thank you so much, Stephen Henderson, Dave Murray, for the conversation.
MURRAY: Thank you.
HENDERSON: Thank you.
CAREY: All right. Mitt Romney is leading in a new Arizona poll and he got a big endorsement today. We'll tell you who is backing him, next.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAY LENO, HOST "THE TONIGHT SHOW WITH JAY LENO": Now we have installed a regular guy, rich guy meter. Let's see how Romney does.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Trees are the right height.
LENO: Regular guy.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Streets are just right.
LENO: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I like the fact that most of the cars I see are Detroit-made automobiles. I drive a Mustang and a Chevy pickup truck and Ann drives a couple of Cadillacs actually.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Rich guy. Rich guy! Couple of Cadillacs.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CAREY: Welcome back. I'm Richelle Carey. This hour we are focusing on politics, allowing you to hear from the 2012 presidential contenders. A new ARG poll is out in Arizona. It has Mitt Romney in the lead with 39 percent, Santorum is at 35 percent. Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul are trailing far behind at 11 percent and nine percent respectively. Let's listen to what Santorum and Romney are promising voters in Arizona.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROMNEY: If I become president of the United States, I will curb the practice we have in this country of giving union bosses an unfair advantage in contracting. One of the first things I'll do, actually on day one, is I will end the government's favoritism towards unions and contracting on federal projects and end project labor agreements and I will fight to repeal (INAUDIBLE).
SANTORUM: You have my pledge that we will secure this border, we will deal with the issue of the drug violence and the cartels, we will work with the Mexican government to make sure that we do - we have relationships there that can help strengthen their economy, deal with the national security threats to our country at the border, and secure the border so the people in Arizona can live in peace and prosperity, just like every other state in the country. (END VIDEO CLIP)
CAREY: Now Arizona is a winner take all state, but they closed primary. Romney bagged a big endorsement today from Arizona Governor Jan Brewer.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BREWER: He has that pro-business background, and he has that political history that I think that he would serve America the best of all the candidates. So it was a difficult decision but I think Mitt is by far the person that can go in and win.
CAREY: Governor Brewer's endorsement comes with some risk. She signed a tough new immigration measure into law last year. It permits police to investigate any suspect they believe may be in the country illegally. While her stance could help Romney among some conservatives, it could hurt him with Latinos considered to be an important swing vote. Here now to talk more about what the Arizona governor's endorsement means for Romney, Jim Nintzel a senior writer for "Tucson Weekly." Jim thanks for joining me. Appreciate it very much.
Let's start with the Jan Brewer question. What might this endorsement do for Mitt Romney?
JIM NINTZEL, SENIOR WRITER, "TUSCON WEEKLY:" Well, Mitt's already in the lead out here. He's obviously leading in all the polls. Rick Santorum kind of made a run at him here over the last couple of weeks. But we're seeing more polls showing Mitt pulling ahead after the CNN debate and Jan Brewer is just the latest of the Republican establishment out here. He already had the endorsement of our attorney general, our secretary of state, and a number of other high ranking Republican officials. So Mitt has had a real campaign out here, really for months now. And Rick has not; I think Mitt has it pretty well locked up out here in Arizona.
CAREY: So having said that, would you think that Mitt Romney would actually have a bigger lead than he does?
NINTZEL: Well, yes. And that's, I think, going on all around the country is that there is that there is this concern among a lot of conservatives about Mitt Romney and his real bona fides and whether or not they can trust him to actually be a conservative governor or a conservative president once he's elected.
CAREY: Let's talk about what -- in addition to immigration, what would you say are the top two or three issues that voters in Arizona care about? And I'm sure that breaks down differently depending where people are and what part of the state.
NINTZEL: Yes, if we're talking about the Republican voters who are going to be voting next week, I think immigration is big on their minds. But jobs and the economy are very big on people's minds out here. I would say the other big issue among Republican voters is how much they really dislike Barack Obama and would like to see him lose in November.
CAREY: OK. All those issues you just named, how do you think the candidates address them in the debate? Do you think this debate; the last debate in Arizona really spoke to voters and tweaked the numbers at all?
NINTZEL: Well, I do think that, you know where the immigration issue came up, and the debate, you saw Mitt Romney really embrace our very controversial immigration law, SB-1070. He was asked would you support rounding up illegal immigrants and deporting them. He said he would certainly drop a federal lawsuit against SB-1070. That was a big moment in the debate. People really liked that. I think that, you know, his embrace of that law, though, leads to trouble in the general election.
You're seeing also in Arizona very interesting phenomenon, we had poll numbers this last week from public policy polling that showed that the Democrats and independents are now really starting to rally around Barack Obama and for the first time Barack Obama is tied with Mitt Romney among general election voters who are going to be voting in November.
CAREY: So do you think that any of the candidates -- or Mitt Romney specifically, has taken any extremely conservative positions in Arizona that could perhaps end up hurting him in the general?
NINTZEL: Yes, I think you're seeing that throughout. His favorability numbers in the state are really on the decline, at least according to these public policy polling surveys. I think you're seeing that reflected in surveys all across America is that as Mitt boosts further to the right, he's alienating a lot of the independents. And he's losing any kind of Democratic crossover that he might need in November. And, of course, that election is a long time away and a lot can change between now and then.
I think even the public policy pollster, Tom Jensen, puts Arizona in the Republican column. But he's saying that you know it is actually becoming competitive state, I think that's kind of the story as these Republican candidates veer farther and farther to the right. They're losing the independents and the folks in the middle.
CAREY: OK. But you got to get that nomination first. Jim Nintzel, senior writer for "Tuscon Weekly." Jim thank you very much.
NINTZEL: It is a pleasure. Thank you for having me.
CAREY: Absolutely.
Well we talked a lot about the Michigan and Arizona primaries that are coming up on Tuesday. But what is really at stake here? Coming up, our political editor Paul Steinhauser breaks it all down for you.
But first, President Obama's raising his voice on the campaign trail. He took to the mike at the White House, red; white and blue's vent which aired on PBS.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Come on baby don't you want to go. Sweet home Chicago --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAREY: Welcome back to this special hour of CNN NEWSROOM. We're focusing on the 2012 presidential contenders so you can learn more about who they are, what their campaigns hope to achieve. Let's take a look at the delegates at stake. For that, we turn to CNN political editor Paul Steinhauser.
PAUL STEINHAUSER, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: Hey Richelle, yes two days to go now until this big primary in Arizona and Michigan and, yes, a lot at stake. So let's break it down, let's do it alphabetical. We will start with Arizona. We have 29 delegates up for grabs and it is winner take all. You win, you get all 29. You lose by a couple thousand votes, you don't get a delegate. It is a semi open primary. That means Republicans, yes, of course they can vote in the GOP primary, so can independent voters. And Arizona's got early voting, it started way back on February 2nd and a lot of people have already cast ballots. In fact by primary day on Tuesday, you may have half or more of all voters already voting.
Moving on to Michigan, 30 delegates at stake, but it is proportional, which means you don't have to win to get delegates. It is also an open primary which again means you have Republicans, of course they can vote in the GOP primary, so can independent voters. But so can Democrats. And it will be interesting to see how many Democrats cross over to vote in the Republican primary.
And finally. No real early voting in Michigan other than absentee ballots. Richelle.
CAREY: Thank you, Paul.
Newt Gingrich takes his campaign to church. Stick around to hear what he told a group of churchgoers in Georgia.
And then coming up at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, 60 lives, 30 kidneys, it is the longest live donor chain in history. The man who started it all, the original donor, explains to us why he decided to do this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CAREY: Welcome back. This morning Newt Gingrich took his message to church in Georgia. He talked about how the founding fathers included religion in the constitution of the United States.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NEWT GINGRICH, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Now, this phrase is at the center of being an American. First of all, it asserts unlike any other society in the world, power comes from god to each one of you personally. It also says back here so the choir doesn't feel left out. What does that mean? It means you're personally sovereign. The rights come to you. You loan power to the government, the government does not loan power to you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAREY: OK. We continue to explore issues on the presidential campaign. Every Sunday we spend the 4:00 p.m. hour, 4:00 p.m. Eastern, right here at CNN NEWSROOM, focusing on the 2012 presidential candidates. Right now, the race is down to four contenders, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. This group of presidential candidates used to include this man, Texas Governor Rick Perry, who is now a Newt Gingrich supporter.
So what does Rick Perry think about Newt Gingrich's fall from popularity? Our own John King sat down with the former presidential candidate to get his take.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN KING, CNN HOST, JOHN KING USA: Speaker Gingrich has not disappeared but fallen a bit. He was out in South Carolina, he was the front-runner. That was when Governor Parry got of the race. You know the dynamic of the race; you were trying to take that spot. You had for a while, to be the alternative to Mitt Romney. How has Senator Santorum taken that trophy away from your guy?
RICK PERRY, (R) FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Let me just tell you that we had a lot of front-runners in this race and we may have two or three more front-runners before August gets here. It won't surprise me for this to go all the way to the convention. But Newt's -- I tell people Newt's the real deal. He's the real fiscal conservative, he is the real social conservative, he is the real tenth amendment believing and breathing individual on the stage. And each one of the other candidates, whether it is on the military side or whether it is on the fiscal conservative side or whether it is on the social issues side, the other candidates can be and are being picked apart a little bit by the Republican faithful out there.
So Newt has been always and will continue to be the individual who from a fiscal conservative standpoint, the person who balances budgets, when you really get down to what is it that is facing America, that most Americans are greatly concerned about, it is that they don't have a job, that they have family members that are either underemployed or unemployed and so getting this country back on track from an economic standpoint and Newt's done it before, he balanced the budget. I think that's the real driving force for people out there.
KING: Some people say he hurt himself where he tried to stay above it all and tried to be big and the other candidates sort of out maneuvered him. Does he need to pick a few direct fights with the other candidates? What is your advice?
PERRY: I think he can be both Churchill and point out the differences he's got in the candidates. I think he's got that great trait and ability to do it. But listen, when you take as much water on as he did with the negative ads that came out of Florida, it is going to beat you down. He didn't have the ability or the money, just say he didn't have the money, certainly has the ability to fight back, but when you have that much money spent against you, it is going to make a difference and I think that's what happened post South Carolina.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAREY: Newt Gingrich has struggled in the polls since his victory in South Carolina. He is still struggling. According to an American Research Group Poll of likely GOP primary voters in Michigan, Newt Gingrich comes in third, following Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney.
The same goes for Arizona. Gingrich is polling in third place at 11 percent. The difference here, Mitt Romney is leading with 39 percent. Both Arizona and Michigan hold their primaries again this Tuesday. Make sure to watch CNN for the live results. Our special coverage begins at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.
As we focus on Tuesday's all important primaries in Michigan and Arizona, our CNN debate last week seems to be a game changer. Wolf Blitzer weighs in next.
But, first, some political trivia. Who won the very first Michigan presidential -- Republican presidential primary? The answer right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CAREY: Welcome back to the special hour of CNN politics. We focus on the presidential candidates every Sunday, 4:00 p.m. Eastern.
Before the break, I asked you who won the very first presidential Michigan Republican presidential primary. Someone here in the studio knew the answer. I thought they cheated by reading the script. But they didn't. The answer is Henry Ford. The first primary was held in 1916, Supreme Court Justice Charles Hughes ended up with the nomination, though. Here is a look back at the CNN GOP debate. It is the last one before Super Tuesday. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Congressman Paul, you questioned the conservative, fiscal conservative credentials of all these gentlemen, but particularly this week Senator Santorum. You have a new television ad that labels him a fake. Why?
REP. RON PAUL, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Because he's a fake.
RICK SANTORUM, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm real. I'm real.
PAUL: Congratulations.
SANTORUM: I'm real.
PAUL: Thank you.
I find it really fascinating that -- when people are running for office, they're really fiscally conservative. When they're in office, they do something different, and then when they explain themselves, they say, oh I want to repeal that.
SANTORUM: When abuse happened, I said we should stop the earmarking process. But I did say there were good earmarks and bad earmarks. I have to admit I voted for that, it was against the principles I believed in, but, you know, when you're part of the team, sometimes you take one for the team, for the leader and I made a mistake.
NEWT GINGRICH, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I developed a program for American energy so no future president will ever bow to a Saudi king again and so every American will look forward to $2.50 a gallon gasoline.
MITT ROMNEY, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The right course for America is to drop the lawsuits against Arizona. I'll also complete the fence. I'll make sure we have enough border patrol agents to secure the fence and I will make sure we have an e-verify system and require employers to check the documents of workers.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAREY: If this week's CNN debate is an indicator, this race could still be a toss up. I spoke with CNN's Wolf Blitzer on our sister network HLN and asked him how the candidates fared.
WOLF BLITZER: So Romney, on the other hand, he didn't hurt himself. I thought he didn't make any major mistakes or anything like that. Looked a little tough. He was going after Rick Santorum. Newt Gingrich --
CAREY: Cheerful. He called himself cheerful.
BLITZER: He's trying to revive his campaign; he is hoping in Georgia he'll have an opportunity on Super Tuesday, a week from Tuesday to get his campaign back in gear if possible. Not necessarily ruling out. This has been a crazy election cycle as you know, Richelle. Anything is really possible. And Ron Paul is Ron Paul. He says he's consistent.
CAREY: That's exactly what he said.
BLITZER: He's consistent.
CAREY: He was very consistent. Rick Santorum's poll numbers have been sliding since Wednesday's debate. So I asked Wolf about that too.
BLITZER: They really went after Rick Santorum in the other debates, he was usually on the sidelines, he wasn't necessarily the target because it was either Romney versus Rick Perry earlier or Herman Cain, remember, or Newt Gingrich when he was up, Michele Bachmann when she was up. And all of a sudden Rick Santorum is the front-runner.
CAREY: How did he handle it?
BLITZER: He did not do that great. I'm sure he and his advisers acknowledged that. He spoke in Washington, you know, sort of talk, and he made it sound like he's -- even though he denies he's a Washington insider, he sounded like a Washington insider.
CAREY: It did sound like that, like he would use you.
BLITZER: He talked about the earmarks and he did or didn't support and he was a team player, wasn't a team player, when it came to supporting President Bush on No Child Left Behind, the education program. He did not help himself.
CAREY: The latest Gallup Poll puts Romney and Santorum in a dead heat. So Tuesday's primaries, must-see TV. Our special coverage begins at 6:00 p.m. Eastern with the special edition of "John King USA." We'll report the primary results as they happen.
Also, if you want to hear more from Wolf Blitzer and, you do, just comment on the candidates, check out his blog on "Situation Room."
He's very funny and informative on twitter too.
In honor of the Academy Awards, our Candy Crowley is handing out some awards of her own to the GOP presidential candidates. We open the envelopes next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CAREY: So here is a look at where the 2012 contenders, presidential contenders will this be week. Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum will be stumping in Michigan on Monday. On Tuesday, Ron Paul will hold a rally in the Super Tuesday state of Virginia. He and Romney are the only two candidates competing there. The others didn't get the required number of signatures to be on the ballot. And Newt Gingrich will spend Tuesday in his home state of Georgia, a loss there would be a pretty big blow to his campaign. Politics is serious business. Sometimes you have to have a little fun. And that's how CNN's Candy Crowley approaches today's "Trail Mix."
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN HOST "STATE OF THE UNION:" Hey, Richelle. With a nod to tonight's Academy Awards, we pulled political gold from the past year for this week's "Trail Mix." The envelope, please. Best impression of a stand-up comedian, Mitt Romney.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MITT ROMNEY, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The gap between his promises and his performance is the largest I've seen, well, since the Kardashian wedding and the promise of until death do we part. My son had a motorcycle which I would ride on occasion, rarely.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CROWLEY: Most overused campaign catch phrase, say it with me.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HERMAN CAIN, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: 9-9. 9-9.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The plan is so fine; they named it 9-9. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I thought it was the price of a pizza when I first heard it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CROWLEY: Best single moment to bring down a campaign belonged to Rick Perry.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RICK PERRY, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I would do away with education, the commerce -- the commerce, and let's see -- I can't. The third one I can't, sorry. Oops.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CROWLEY: Best unintentionally funny campaign ad, Herman Cain and his chief of staff.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFED FEMALE: I am America --one voice united -- we stand -- I am America -
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CROWLEY: And best parody of an unintentionally funny campaign ad goes to Cain's number one fan, Stephen Colbert.
Congratulations to all our winners. Richelle, as you know, we're fresh out of gold here at CNN. We melted down most of it to pay for this prolonged campaign season. But to our winners, we're going to send something even better, these bookmarks from "State of the Union." Each recipient will get one. If you play your cards right, we'll send one to you too.
CAREY: I'm going to hold her to that. I want one. Be sure to watch Candy Crowley on "State of the Union" every Sunday morning at 9:00 Eastern. Thank you for tuning in for this special hour of politics. Remember, every Sunday, 4:00 p.m. Eastern. More CNN NEWSROOM continues right now.
