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NEW DAY

Mitt Romney to Announce Decision on 2016 Presidential Bid; Taliban Fighter Released from Guantanamo Communicating with Other Taliban Fighters; Countdown to Super Bowl XLIX; Are ISIS Hostages Still Alive?

Aired January 30, 2015 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: One of them attempting to communicate with a Taliban associate.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're confident that we would be able to mitigate any theft of reengagement by any of these members.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo, Alisyn Camerota, and Michaela Pereira.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: I'll say it again, lot to do, lot to do. Good morning and welcome to your NEW DAY. It is Friday, friends, January 30th, 8:00 in the east. The breaking news is of the presidential variety. CNN's Dana Bash has learned that Mitt Romney has made a decision about his presidential future and will tell his supporters at 11:00 a.m. Eastern on a call. We have a call of our own with Dana. Dana, what do you know?

DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Just that, that he has been feeling pressure to either fish or cut bait for lack of a better way to say it, because of the fact that the big money people, there aren't a lot of so called bundlers, really, really rich people who know other really, really rich who can help raise the tens of millions of dollars, there aren't that many people like that. And those people are impatient and in some cases, walking to other candidates. He needs them if he wants to go forward.

Talented staff, other supporters around the country in key states, he needs them if he wants to go forward. And they're also looking at others. So I am told that Romney knows that. And that's why he's been collecting data as anybody who knows Mitt Romney knows that he does because he likes to look at the numbers to see what they're telling him. And he's done that. And he's going to tell his supporters whether or not he is going to go forward or not.

Now, the numbers are obviously just part of it. When you're running for president, it's about fire in the belly. It's about support from your family. It's about actually if you've done it twice like Mitt Romney, whether or not you're really up for it again and putting everybody around you through the rigors of a presidential campaign. So that's another thing that he is weighing.

You asked me last hour if I think he's going to run. I was trying to be cautious because I don't want to have egg on my face, but I can tell you just talking to sources since you and I all spoke last, it does feel like all signs are pointing to go. Not 100 percent, but all signs appear to be pointing to go.

CUOMO: Dana, it would be foolish to hold you to that, but we appreciate the insight. And while this announcement is a little bit of surprise, you breaking the story is not. Thank you for the reporting. Let us know what else you find out.

Let's talk about it with CNN political analyst, editor in chief of "The Daily Beast" John Avlon and CNN political commentator, Republican consultant, and Sirius XM host Margaret Hoover. OK, Dana says fingers are pointing towards yes. Do you agree, Margaret Hoover? I know you've been working the phones. Don't hold out.

MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I suspect that he's going to tell this quarter that he's moving forward this morning at 11:00 a.m.

JOHN AVLON, EDITOR IN CHIEF, "THE DAILY BEAST": Look, what's interesting, this is possibly a slow-roll announcement. First of all, the nature of this is on a call. This isn't going to be a formal announcement. But it's enough to get not only the media attention laser focused on him but the donor attention. And this is part of a process, and certainly what we know about Mitt Romney, the methodical nature, the data-driven nature, realizing the importance of money, this makes sense.

HOOVER: And it's really fascinating. While the Democratic side has slowed down to glacial speed, the Republican side has sped up. Jeb Bush is getting in. What this does for Mitt Romney, it dries up -- it keeps donor support dry. He's basically saying keep your powder dry. Don't sign on with Jeb. Let's see what happens here, who is going to be a better candidate so he can make his case again.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: When you say slow-roll this announcement, it means he'll say I am going to establish an exploratory committee to decide whether in the future I will be interested -- we are even before the exploratory committee.

(CROSSTALK)

HOOVER: He is going to have a leadership, which he probably never closed down. He probably kept some vehicle alive in order to continue to support candidates that he likes.

CUOMO: Why the baby steps?

AVLON: Well, I think in part because it buys a little bit of time. It also keeps media attention.

CUOMO: All right, let's unpack this, because I think this is a growing problem. Hillary Clinton, I'm going to wait until the summer, maybe July to decide. This guy, I'm going to take baby steps. Do you want it or not? Don't these people deserve people who are anxious to get into this and do it?

HOOVER: But the fact that Mitt Romney is saying at 11:00 a.m. this morning shows that he's chomping at the bit. And I think what this says is he feels he's been vindicated from the platform that he ran on in 2012. He feels that he will be a good president and could be a good president and he wants to be able to make his case to Republicans and to the American people again. That's somebody who really wants to be president, if you want to go through the presidential fight again. And by the way, that's the deterrent for most candidates. They'd be happy to president but they don't want to run.

CUOMO: That's the thing, people's ambition. To answer your question, right, part of it is the mechanics of setting up $1 billion or $100 million operation to start. You have to set up a PAC in order to raise money to start an infrastructure. What's interesting that Margaret just raised the question, how much of Mitt Romney's infrastructure was sort of in sleep mode rather than totally shut off over the last couple years.

HOOVER: And we know it's not a fait accompli for Romney. He's going to have to make his case again to Republican operatives with a key defection coming yesterday form Iowa.

CAMEROTA: And what does this do to Jeb Bush today?

CUOMO: I think it increases the competition for donors and operatives. As Margaret just alluded, a big Romney supporter in Iowa, and talk about the state where local leadership matters, the first three states really individuals can be pivotal, a Romney supporter of long standing switched to Jeb Bush. That increased the pressure. And the competition between these two folks for the center-right constituency of the Republican Party, for the operatives, for the money, for the mantel, that's where a lot of the action is. Silence from a lot of people on that side about what this means.

Rand Paul, though, has been coming out with tweets where he's like mimicking a conversation between these two sides about who should be president.

(LAUGHTER)

CAMEROTA: I like it.

CUOMO: What is his play here, because it is decidedly un-presidential what he's doing?

AVLON: Well, what's fascinating about Rand Paul, if you look at the really crowded field, everyone's got overlapped -- they've got candidates who overlap with their core constituency, except for Rand Paul. And in a really crowded feel where 15 percent, 20 percent, 19 percent could win, it's interesting he could have a libertarian and generational play all to himself while everyone else is fighting for the center-right, the evangelicals, for the Tea Party. Rand Paul has got his own real estate. That's interesting. CAMEROTA: John looks at the numbers. I like to look at the

psychology of all this. So my armchair analysis based on nothing is that Mitt Romney wants another crack at it because he doesn't think he's his authentic self the last time. Now he does want to pull down the veneer. He does want to be his true self. That's what I'm get from this.

HOOVER: That's clearly what we're seeing coming from the Romney operation, the sense that he's not going to hide from his religion this time, that he's going to not own that he is a man of wealth, but self-made wealth, but that he can also represent people who want to have a future and economic success in this country and that he can be part of the solution for that. But he is running for redemption. And ultimately will have to see how he dots the i's.

CUOMO: Is that a good motivation to run for president? I don't like that I lost, I don't like that this is on me? I've been great ay everything, I don't want this mark on my record to myself?

HOOVER: But the question, is he going to be the better president. Ultimately who is going to be the best president? That's what Republicans have to decide, who is going to best Republican candidate to beat Hillary Clinton or whoever is on the Democrats? And Romney thinks he's the guy.

CUOMO: Do you think he can beat her?

HOOVER: There is a real logic. I can understand the logic on the Romney side. When you pair up a Hillary Clinton to a Romney, he's been an effective governor. He can't even -- where does health care go in that debate? He's actually passed health care. It does do something very interesting to a Republican governing agenda in 2016, which is a little different than if it were Jeb Bush.

AVLON: I think the argument and the data suggests that he might be a better matchup against Hillary than Jeb would, that Clinton-Bush retread. But as you know, so much in politics is personal, it's personalities, it's psychological. And there is a certain degree of stick-to-itiveness where you can see Mitt Romney say, you know what, I want a do-over because I think I can work harder. I know the field better, and a real belief in faith and family that he's called to this. You can debate whether that's a positive or a negative in the grand scheme, but there is certainly the sense of I'm going to work this problem until I solve it. And whether the nation should be subjected to that is a second question.

CAMEROTA: Sometimes you need a dress rehearsal beforehand.

(CROSSTALK)

CAMEROTA: Didn't Romney run twice?

HOOVER: He didn't win the nomination twice. And so by the way, we've got a little fact-checking, Tom Dewey, Richard Nixon, only two Republicans who have gotten the nomination twice.

CUOMO: Strong company.

HOOVER: Well, Tom Dewey never won.

AVLON: But Nixon 68 cast a long shadow, especially on George Romney. And that's part of the longer GOP civil war battle here is the Romney family looking for a degree of redemption not just for himself but for his dad.

CUOMO: That early theme you're going to have that will be interesting is Romney is someone that you know who has got gotten it done versus someone, if it's Hillary, right, our empty presumption, would be a first. That's going to be a very strong thing. You know this, you've done this. I would be the first. How strong is that?

HOOVER: Of course, Clinton, not the first Clinton the White House.

CUOMO: Do you think she gets judged as a Clinton or a woman?

HOOVER: I think she gets judged as both. And I also think it depends who she is matched up against. I agree with you, if we're two weeks out form the election and you have the third Bush versus the first woman then being a woman helps. But if it's a Clinton versus Romney, that's a real argument for the Romney. It's not a retread.

AVLON: Republicans are going to see her as a Clinton. Democrats are going to see her as a woman. The key for whoever is running here is your campaign has to be a crusade about something bigger than yourself ultimately.

CAMEROTA: John, Margaret, stay tuned for 11:00 a.m. eastern. Thanks so much.

MICHAELA PEREIRA, CNN ANCHOR: All right, let's turn to a high stakes chess match with ISIS. The fate of a Jordanian pilot and a Japanese journalist unknown at this hour. Officials in Jordan are still demanding proof that their pilot is alive before they free a female jihadist in a prisoner swap. Will Ripley is live on the ground in Tokyo. What's the latest we know, Will?

WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: What makes this seem difficult for the Jordanian government is the fact that they know that ISIS appears to be playing a game here, setting a deadline and then unwilling to provide a basic rule when you're doing a prisoner exchange and you're trying to save the life of somebody. You provide proof of life. ISIS is refusing to do that. And so it's raising questions.

One question, are both of these hostages alive? Is one of them not alive? Is that why ISIS is refusing to provide proof of life for the Jordanian pilot. And what of Kenji Goto, the Japanese hostage that has not been used. He's been used repeatedly as a pawn to deliver propaganda message. They've been e-mailing Kenji Goto's wife, telling her to do everything in her power to expose their message to the world and threatening her husband's life if she doesn't comply.

So it's an impossible situation right now for these two governments. They know they're dealing with a brutal terror group that, frankly, isn't worthy of being in any sort of discussions with two U.S. allies such as Jordan and Japan. And yet, because they care so much about trying to secure the safe return of their citizens they continue to be forced to sit and wait for ISIS' next move. And this is a group we know is unpredictable. We know it's only a matter of time before they come out with another message. Two lives are on the line and nobody knows what's going to happen next, Chris.

CUOMO: All right, Will, we'll check in with you if there are any developments.

The United States on the sidelines of this current situation, but all too aware of the risks in negotiations and swaps with terrorists. For example, Bowe Bergdahl when he was swapped for Taliban prisoners, five of them, critics said it was a violation of U.S. policy not to negotiate with terrorists, and it was a bad deal that would put militants back on the battlefield. The question now, are those fears coming true? CNN Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr has more on this. What do we know?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Chris, good morning. Several U.S. officials have now confirmed there is intelligence that one of those five detainees returned to the Persian Gulf nation of Qatar has engaged in communications that the U.S. believes equates with reaching out to militants. What officials are telling us is one of the detainees was caught, essentially, via a classified intercept program the U.S. runs on them on their communications, caught making phone calls back to Taliban associates in Afghanistan.

Now, inside the intelligence community, a big debate going on. Some will tell you, not that serious, they caught him at it. But I will tell you that multiple sources tell me inside the intelligence community a good deal of concern about all of this. This is not the first time a returned detainee has called returned to the battlefield, engaged in militant activity after being transferred out of Guantanamo Bay, but this case getting a lot of political attention in Washington because it does involve that five for one transfer for Bowe Bergdahl. Michaela?

PEREIRA: So the very concerns many voiced early one. All right, Barbara Starr, thank you so much.

I want to turn to breaking news now to Saudi Arabia. Raif Badawi's sister confirming to us here at CNN that the blogger has once again been spared another set of 50 lashes. Now, unlike previous pardons, no official comments was made or released to Raif's groups. The 31- year-old blogger was spared last time because of medical reasons. He was not said to be fit to withstand the beating. Badawi was arrested in 2012 on the charge of insulting Islam.

CUOMO: All right, the Taliban is now claiming responsibility for shooting and killing three U.S. military contractors on a base at Kabul's international airport in Afghanistan. The terror group says a suicide attacker who opened fire was a Taliban agent who penetrated the security forces and was just waiting to strike. That attacker killed at the scene. CAMEROTA: And take a look at this car, it was cut in half after the

spectacular crash in Cleveland. It is hard to believe that four people inside survived. Police tell us two of them, though, ran from the scene after crashing into a utility pole. Two others are hospitalized, one in critical condition. Police are not releasing any other details about that crash.

CUOMO: I can't believe anybody got out of that.

CAMEROTA: And no less ran from the scene.

PEREIRA: All right, weather, big deal over the weekend, two more winter storms ready to batter the northeast just days after the region was slammed huge by a big blizzard. Let's get to our meteorologist Jennifer Gray in taking a look at these models and what we can expect. Is it going to be as bad as last time?

JENNIFER GRAY, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Well, it's not going to be as bad, Michaela, but we are going to see additional snowfall. To add insult to injury, a lot of snow already on the ground as we've been seeing for the past couple of days.

A messy morning, though, for parts of New York, even including Boston, up to Portland, Bangor, Maine, also getting snow this morning. Even the Cleveland picking up a messy morning.

We are looking at a closer look, you can see rain just offshore, Boston getting that rain, that rain/snow line. They're right on that light. But we are going to see this clipper continue to push to the east. It is going to bring a couple of fresh inches of snow across New England and also windy conditions in its wake.

We're going to see is winds anywhere from 30 to 40 miles per hour. That's what we could expect as far as wind gusts, so we could see the potential of power outages.

Here are your snowfall totals. The biggest totals will be up in northern Maine. We are about 10 to 12 inches in Bangor, Maine. Portland could see 4 to 6 inches, also 2 to 4 inches for portions of Massachusetts. Boston could actually pick up 4 to 6 inches.

Here is the next system -- it's going to continue to push through the east. Midwest picking up decent snowfall. We could see up to 12 inches of snow across portions of the Midwest. Chicago we'll pick up portions as well. And that does include New England.

Here's a fresh look at the snowfall total Sunday into Monday. And, guys, we could pick up an additional 6 to 8 inches around the Boston area. Right outside of Cleveland could pick up 8 inches as well.

CUOMO: Jen, boo to you and your forecast. Hope it doesn't come true. Thanks.

(CROSSTALK)

CUOMO: All right, so the Super Bowl. Two days away. My signature slow of had cooked chili con carne is already in progress.

CAMEROTA: Oh la la la.

PEREIRA: (INAUDIBLE) Monday.

CUOMO: Of course, but there's a lot, it depends on how much you eat with me on Sunday, right? That'll be the measure.

Now, there's a lot more cooking than that, though, when it comes to this game.

Andy Scholes, in Phoenix, smiling wide. Detail the intrigue.

ANDY SCHOLES, CNN SPORTS: Good morning, guys.

You know, it's been a very interesting Super Bowl week. Of course, it started with the deflate-gate talk. And Marshawn Lynch with the "I'm just here so I won't get fined", you know, that ran through the whole week.

But, you know, the players are done talking now guys. The focus is shifting to the actual game on Sunday. And a win on Sunday, it would be historic for both teams. The Seahawks, of course, looking for back-to-back Super Bowl, they're just the second team to do that, in the last decade. Of course, the last team do that was, of course, your New England Patriots, Tom Brady, he's raised three Lombardis trophies in his career.

And a win on Sunday, that would put him in exclusive territory with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana. The only three quarterbacks to win three Super Bowls.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TOM BRADY, PATRIOTS QUARTERBACK: I'm proud of what we've been able to accomplish. I hope the best is yet to come. But we've got to earn it, I think that's the great thing about football is, you know, no one gives you anything. You got to go out there, especially against a team like this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCHOLES: All right. So, the Super Bowl is the most bet sporting event each year. According to pregame.com, an estimated $10 billion is expected to be wagered on the game. The Patriots are slight favorites. You can bet more than just the game, guys. You can bet, will Belichick smile on the sidelines at one point during the game. You can bet on Katy Perry is going to wear at halftime.

If you can't wait that long, of course, you can bet on the coin toss. Is it going to be head or tail. At least you got a 50/50 shot at that one, right?

BERMAN: Mick wants to know, what do you got, Andy?

PEREIRA: Who you got? SCHOLES: OK. So, I picked the Patriots before the season even started. I'm sticking with them. I'm with Berman.

CAMEROTA: Yes, but she meant, how many outfits of Katy Perry's.

PEREIRA: I didn't mean that. I didn't mean that.

SCHOLES: She said multiple. I'm picking six.

CAMEROTA: I like it.

CUOMO: Picked six strong. Like a lot of them.

All right. How about commercials? That's what we really care about. Which ones do you want to see? Tweet us @newday. Go to Facebook.com/NewDay. And we'll discuss.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell holding a state of the NFL news conference at 1:30 p.m. eastern, you'll be able to see it right here on CNN live.

Also tomorrow, you can go inside football's big game with CNN's big talent, Rachel Nichols, and Hall of Famer Dan Marino, he's no slouch. CNN's "Kickoff in Arizona", 4:30 p.m. Eastern.

CAMEROTA: All right. Meanwhile, the fate of two hostages held by ISIS is unknown at this hour. Have the negotiations collapsed? Is ISIS on its heels? We'll get a status report of the power of ISIS.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAMEROTA: The deadline for a prisoner swap between ISIS and Jordan has passed. The Jordanian government waiting for proof that their captured pilot is still alive. But is all of this focus on ISIS having the unintended consequence of elevating the terror group?

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Lieutenant Colonel James Reese. Daveed is a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Colonel Reese is a CNN affairs analyst, who's a retired U.S. delta force commander. He's now the founder and chairman of Tiger Swan.

It's great to see both of you.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Good morning.

CAMEROTA: Daveed, let me start with you, we need a reality check. We have talked about ISIS so much in the past week because of this potential prisoner swap. It's hard to know, really, what perspective to put them in. How powerful is ISIS today?

DAVEED GARTENSTEIN-ROSS, SENIOR FELLOW, FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES: That's an excellent question. And, you know, ISIS is a very theatrical cinematic organization. They know how to scare people. They know how to get media attention.

If you look at their overall status, it depends which region you're talking about. In Iraq, they're in quite a bit of trouble. I think the odds are very low that they'll still hold Mosul by the end of the year.

We don't have much of a strategy for dealing with them in Syria. So they're pretty well set in Syria at this point in time, and will remain a regional power for sometime.

If you look at their international hold, those are often exaggerated. My bottom line, is that the media, in addition to showing what ISIS does well, they're a master at social media, their ability to scare people, their brutality, they should be focusing on their holdings which are substantial. They lost Kobani. They've lost some other significant holdings in Iraq and their supply lines have been threatened. I think it's important to emphasize their weakness because by blowing them up to be more than what they are, that helps to encourage more people to flock to their ranks, which I think is very problematic.

CAMEROTA: We appreciate that perspective, Daveed, and we are trying to do that. We do want to give the viewers an accurate depiction of where ISIS is now.

Colonel Reese, one the issues with ISIS, and the reason that they may seem more powerful is because they were able to marauder over a large swath of land and grab that land more quickly than people expected. How much do they control in Iraq?

LT. COLONEL JAMES REESE (RET), CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, as we've been talking now for months, you know, they grabbed great swaths of land. They grabbed the city of Mosul. They have a great hold on al Anbar providence.

But since early January now, late December, the Iraqi forces, along with Shia militia, along with the U.S. forces, the coalition and some of the Iranian support, going north from Baghdad up the Tigris River Valley, they have ticked off, ticked off, ticked off cities along the way. Diyala province, was a huge problem for us, has been pretty much under control by the Iraqis.

So, right now, north of Baghdad, what you really have is the only strong point is Mosul. Right now, the Kurds are in the north. The Iraqi security forces are in the South, they've cut the supply lines from Syria to the West. So, that is just waiting to, for the Iraqis to decide when they're going to assault on Mosul.

So I think the Iraqis are doing the right thing. They're concentrating their combat power at one given time. They'll take the north down and then worry about the west in Al Anbar province.

CAMEROTA: That is such good news and important for us to hear.

Daveed, do we know how many people strong ISIS is today?

GARTENSTEIN-ROSS: Now, you have these estimates that differ widely, and I think part of the reason is because when we talk about ISIS, what are we talking about the core forces, are we talking about the territory that they control, are we talking about their conscripts? Because they have taken under conscription.

They have a lot of members of their forces who are conscripts. Conscripts are not going to fight as well as their normal forces, you know, people who are very ideologically committed to their cause.

The upper end estimate which includes not only conscripts and core forces but also people that they're training up, basically people who they've drafted from areas they control is about 200,000. But the number of core forces are much less than that. However, caveat all of that, I think there's a lot of estimations going on here, with all the estimates that are there. There is nothing that is scientifically accurate.

CAMEROTA: Colonel Reese, one of the things that's been able to elevate ISIS, at least their reputation, is the amount of money they've been able to get. Why they so successful at this fund- raising?

REESE: Well, one, you know, we've seen it, there's a lot of past aspects where they're able to raise money from other extremist jihadists throughout the region. And they're able to gain money there. We know they have some oil production on the Syrian border that they're able to sell on the black market and do that. But again, with the oil prices dropping that's even affecting that.

So, right now, ISIS is having -- I will call it they have lost the momentum is the best thing I think ISIS has done. They will work very hard. They've got some there are leaders that are very savvy and very charismatic that will try to gain the momentum back. But, right now, I think things are looking pretty good.

But just like dice said here, what we have to now figure out is, what's our next policy in Syria, or we're going to allow ISIS to stay there and keep that a safe haven?

CAMEROTA: Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Colonel Reese, thanks for all the perspective. We'll continue to have this conversation with you. Thanks so much for coming on NEW DAY.

Let's go over to Michaela.

PEREIRA: All right. The big question, Alisyn, this morning: will he or won't he? We're going to find out this morning, we assume if Mitt Romney is going to launch another White House campaign. Could he win if he does run? We'll explore that.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)