Return to Transcripts main page

THE LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER

Israeli Election Coverage; Israeli TV Exit Poll: Election Too Close to Call; U.S. Veteran Charged With Trying to Join ISIS. Aired 4- 4:30p ET

Aired March 17, 2015 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ELISE LABOTT, CNN FOREIGN AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Really trying to energize that right-wing vote, a little bit of fear-mongering there, trying to tell that -- right-wing voters, I will not support a Palestinian state. I will protect you from the Arabs who he said were coming at in droves to unseat him.

But it seems to have worked. He seems to have energized that right- wing base. And now he is neck and neck with Isaac Herzog, even inching a little bit ahead of him. This is a stunning turn around. And even we will have to see who is able to form the coalition with the other parties, but it does look as if Prime Minister Netanyahu has fought his way back and has a very good chance of forming this government, so it's a victory for him either way, Jake.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: All right, let's go to Oren Liebermann.

He's in Herzog campaign headquarters.

Oren, I think exit polls indicated, suggested that Herzog would be doing better than this exit poll seems to suggests he is. He is down behind Netanyahu, 28 seats for Netanyahu's Likud Party, 27 for Zionist Union.

What is the mood there? What are you hearing from Herzog campaign workers?

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, there is perhaps a much more muted optimism than was hoped for. They were cautiously optimistic. They were hoping for a big showing as they saw in the polls, especially those last polls that indicated a four-vote lead or a four-vote seat for Isaac Herzog.

Of course, we just saw that didn't materialize or at least it looks from exit polling like it didn't materialize. Still, Herzog knows he needed more than just a gap. He also needed a strong showing from the left wing.

We saw some parties on the left there and some parties in the center put up some good numbers, specifically Yesh Atid, the Arab List having very big numbers there. Kulanu, a party right in the center, although we have to look at the breakdown of the numbers, Kulanu could be the king maker here.

Herzog knows all of this. Most importantly for Herzog, though, he still had a big showing. He's still in the running. He probably knew this wasn't going to be settled tonight. But looking over the numbers, he knows the deal-making possibility is there. He knows he can wheel and deal politically to try to put together a coalition government, stringing together the seats to try to string together the majority.

The question now, of course, and this will start to become part of the analysis and part of the questions, is, who does President Reuven Rivlin pick to try to create the government? These numbers from a quick glance look very, very close, Jake. Right now, we will have to wait to see for some more concrete results. The exit polls very, very interesting, as we knew they would be.

TAPPER: Oren Liebermann at Herzog headquarters in Tel Aviv.

Let's talk about this more with Wolf Blitzer.

Wolf, according to this Channel 2 exit pole, Likud, Netanyahu's party, 28 seats in the Parliament, the Knesset, Herzog's Zionist Union 27. This is of course just exit polls. There will be actual results. We're told the other two networks in Israel that have exit polls also have the races basically neck and neck. And you heard Oren Liebermann just alluded to the fact that ultimately Reuven Rivlin, the president of Israel, gets to decide who gets first crack at forming a coalition.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: And, normally, the leader of the party with the most seats in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, that leader gets first crack. First 28 days, and then they get another 28 days to negotiate with the smaller parties to come up with the magic number of 61.

There are 120 members in the Knesset. They need 61 for a workable majority. And presumably, if these hold, remember, these are exit polls, the these are not official numbers. The official numbers, they still have to count all of these ballots. Millions of people voted in Israel. So we will see what the final results are. Usually, the exit polls are close, but they are by no means certain.

The president of Israel will have to decide within the next few days whether to give Isaac Herzog, the leader of the Zionist Union, the Labor Party, in effect, the chance to form a coalition, or go with the existing prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. We don't know what the president, Reuven Rivlin, is going do.

But that's a major decision right there. Then they have to negotiate a deal to see who will come up with a majority, who will be able to do so and this process is only just beginning.

TAPPER: As our viewers may or may not know, there has never been in the history of Israel one party that wins 61 seats. This is the way they form their governments. They come together and form coalitions to get to that magic number of 61.

Wolf, I'm told in this exit poll, the party that is in third place is the Joint Arab List. That's all these different Arab parties that have coalesced and come together for one party. They could be something of a kingmaker in this. Highly unlikely that they would ever join with Netanyahu.

Usually, they sit out and don't join the government at all.

BLITZER: But what they could do this time -- and certainly they are impressive in their showing, this Joint Arab List. They could potentially, assuming some of the more centrist, smaller parties decide to align themselves with the Zionist Union, Isaac Herzog's party, they could effectively prevent -- let's say they get 14 or 15 seats -- prevent that majority from emerging for the Likud, Benjamin Netanyahu's party.

It's still a work in progress. And anybody who is ready to say right now that they know that either Netanyahu or Herzog is going be the next president is wrong, because we simply don't have enough information yet. This is going take a while.

<16:05:13> TAPPER: Elise Labott at Netanyahu headquarters in Tel Aviv, let me go to you in Tel Aviv. If you could hold your microphone a little bit closer to your mouth, that would be great. Just it's a little loud there in Tel Aviv.

So, it is neck and neck, according to this exit poll, 28 seats for Netanyahu's Likud Party, 27 seats for Herzog's Zionist Union. What do you make of the fact that according to exit polls, the Arab List, the Joint Arab List, the coalition of Arab political parties, is in third place? What could that do to this Israeli election?

LABOTT: Well, Jake, we have been reporting for the last week or so that this is about what we thought they would get, about 13 seats, and they would be the third party in the election.

Now, ironically, this is only because Foreign Minister Liebermann tried to kick them out saying they were very small parties that united and now they are the ones that hold the balance of power.

They do not want to join either a Herzog or obviously a Netanyahu government. What they would like to be is the official opposition. This gives them a very large platform to be able to push their issues for the Israeli citizens of Arab descent and also for the Palestinians in the territories.

But they say is they would support a Herzog government. Now, that could inspire the president, Reuven Rivlin, to tap Herzog for a government. However, what they did do, the Joint List, is to try to take away some votes from both the smaller left-wing and right-wing parties.

They took away parties from other people, but they would not be supporting in a government either a Herzog or a Netanyahu coalition.

TAPPER: I want to go right now to CNN national security commentator Mike Rogers, former Republican chair of the House Intelligence Committee and a congressman from Michigan, plus former Congresswoman Jane Harman, former Democratic congresswoman from conflict.

Thanks, both of you, for being here. Really appreciate it. The White House says they will work him whomever the Israeli people choose. We still are not quite clear who that is. It could really be at this point either Herzog or Netanyahu.

But, Congresswoman Harman, I have to say that it seems rather clear who President Obama would rather not be the prime minister of Israel in the next month.

JANE HARMAN, FORMER U.S. CONGRESSWOMAN: That may be true. But what matters is that democracy works in Israel.

This is a demonstration of a much more complicated form of democratic election than we have, and that the United States government aligned closely with whatever government emerges. There should be no ounce of daylight between the United States and Israel. And I predict that notwithstanding people's personal preferences about who should win this election, the Congress will step up and strongly support the new government of Israel.

TAPPER: Congressman Rogers, even if Netanyahu wins, which he may do, we still don't know. It's 28 seats for him, 27 for Herzog, according to that initial exit poll. Other exit polls also have it neck and neck.

Is the relationship between Obama and Netanyahu so tense, so riddled with slights and perceived slights on both sides that the relationship is basically irreparable?

MIKE ROGERS, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I don't think it's irreparable. I think certainly it's been damaged over time.

I think the election can heal a lot of that. If Netanyahu comes out on the other side of this, I think you will see a better effort to try to repair those differences moving forward. This relationship is too incredibly important. Our intelligence, our defense relationships are as strong as I have ever seen them, even with that friction at the senior level, if you will.

And so I think again the election can be a healing process. Sometimes, it is here. I think you will see that same process in Israel, despite what's going to I think be a pretty bruising coalition fight here coming up.

TAPPER: One of the biggest issues of contention between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu is, of course, this deal trying to be negotiated between the P5-plus-one partners, Germany, France, et cetera, and Iran about the Iranian nuclear program.

Does that change if Herzog becomes the prime minister? Does Israel start becoming more accepting of that plan or was Israel behind Netanyahu when it came to that deal?

HARMAN: Well, I think it's not behind Netanyahu. I think there is fair unanimity in Israel that the deal has to be a very good, tough deal. And it was interesting that when Netanyahu spoke to Congress, he left

some room for some enrichment in Iran. He didn't say zero enrichment. He's actually to the left of Tom Cotton and some of those members of the Senate. And I think that once this election is behind Israel and behind us, it's been rivetingly interesting to the United States too, that there will be a coming together.

<16:10:05> I agree with Mike Rogers, as I usually do.

(CROSSTALK)

HARMAN: That the U.S.-Israeli relationship is that important.

TAPPER: Obama said there should be a two-state solution. Netanyahu a few years ago said he believed in a two-state solution.

But coming into the homestretch, trying to appeal, as Israeli political observers say, to his party's right wing, to the Israeli public right wing, he said no Palestinian state while he is prime minister. This creates another issue where he and President Obama would be at odds.

ROGERS: Yes. I looked at this as a last-hour appeal to try to put the coalitions right of center, including the far-right coalitions in Israel, behind him in the election.

I think if the deal were right, he would take a two-state solution. I believe in his heart, he believes that. I have had personal meetings with Netanyahu in Israel on the Iranian deal, on the ISIS problem in the north. I think in his heart he could get there. But what it means is they will have to have a higher standard of acceptability on a deal for a two-state solution.

TAPPER: OK. Stay right there.

We're going to continue covering the Israeli election results as they come in. Mike Rogers, Jane Harman, Congressman, Congresswoman, thank you so much to both of you.

It could be a long, long night for Benjamin Netanyahu. In fact, the full results of the election really could take weeks. But even if his party loses in total votes, he could remain prime minister. How is that possible? We will explain on our magic wall next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

<16:15:46> ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

TAPPER: Welcome back to the lead. I'm Jake Tapper.

Continuing now with our world lead, a critical election in Israel. The polls have them neck and neck. Exit polls closed just minutes ago, but exit polls have Netanyahu and Herzog locked in a dead heat.

Let's bring in CNN chief national correspondent John King, who has been combing through the Israeli TV exit poll, joins us now live from the magic wall.

John, take us through the numbers. This race is very close on its face.

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It is as close as it gets, Jake. And let's start with the caution. Number one, we're going to use the Channel 2 exit poll. And as I do, I want to tap this, because the Channel 2 exit poll has the Likud Party lead by the incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu winning 28 seats in the Knesset, the parliament, and the Zionist Union Party with 27.

I'm going to stop right now and just say this exit poll could be updated. Number one, it's only an exit poll. Like we have here in the United States, exit polls are updated throughout the day, as you look more of the data that comes in, it's the computer systems weigh the advice.

So, this is where we are in the first wave of the Channel 2 estimate. Two others actually have a tie between these two leaders. Channel 2 has been reliable in the past, which is why we choose them.

If you look at this, what do you have? You have a very close election. You have a glaring example here of Israel's vibrant fractured democracy, with center left party is getting votes, center right party is getting votes, far right party is down here getting votes.

So, here's what we have here. Number one, we have to see what the next wave of exit polls says. Number two, then, we count the votes.

If it turns out this way, if the incumbent prime minister and his party come out with a lead of even just one seat, one would except that the Israel president would give the prime minister a chance to organize the president first. But, again, that if this holds up.

If this holds up, remember, Benjamin Netanyahu is the ultimate survivor of Israeli politics. If he ended up with one-seat lead coming out of the election, could he organize a government? Could he get to 61 seats from 28 seats? Yes, he's done it in the past.

I will give you one example and again, this is a hypothetical, if this holds up. We have a lot of vote counting to do in the hours ahead.

These are Netanyahu allies. These are Netanyahu allies. This party, Netanyahu allies. If he picked up just those three, he'd be getting right out here.

And then, this is when the chess comes in to play, and the horse trading comes in. You want to commit to my government, or you want me to join your government, what cabinet agencies do I get? What other power do we get? How do we horse trade about whether it's negotiated with the Palestinians or expanding the settlements?

That's what would happen from there on out. Two parties who look like they could be king makers for either, both founded by former allies who are now critics but they do come out of the conservative wing of Israeli politics. So, if he could get this far and convince of his former critics to come back in, let's say it was here. That gets him pretty close. The United Torah Party, ultra nationalists, they had said they would negotiate with either winner in the election.

But again, as we wait now, this is the key point. The exit polls show a very, very tight race. So, we'll watch for the next wave throughout the night, and then we'll count the votes.

It does tell us this: whoever gets the first chance to form a coalition is going to have a lot of bargaining to do with the smaller parties. The big question is, does somebody come out on top or do they come out tied and then the Israeli president, largely of ceremonial position, has a huge task -- picking somebody to get the first chance to form a coalition.

TAPPER: That's going to take days if not weeks. John King, thank you so much for your analysis.

Let's bring in CNN's chief international correspondent Christiane Amanpour, who's live for us in London.

Christiane, in the United States, we woke up this morning to the news that Netanyahu had put out a YouTube video imploring his supporters to show up at the polls today, claiming that Palestinians or Arabs as we called them were being bussed to the voting booths by left leaning organizations. He was very criticized by people in the Israeli media for what they described as a racist. But it looks as though this appeal, whether or not one likes it, might have helped galvanized his base to get to the polls.

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you're absolutely right. And it wasn't just the press. It was also the Arab Israeli parliamentarians, those who made the joint list, who were also incredibly upset by that YouTube appeal.

<16:10:05> And I just spoke to one of them who's part of they joint list who said, look, we have made an unprecedented coalition. We want to work unprecedentedly in the system for our rights and for, you know, Jewish rights. And by the way, who are these Arabs they're scare-mongering us? We are citizens of this country.

Let's not forget, it's not like a bunch of Arabs from neighboring next door are being bussed to the election. Israeli Arabs, citizens of the country, 1.7 million of them, as this parliamentarian told me, have been incredibly motivated in this election, and they want to get out and try to better their lives, where they are very conscious, as one of them, as this one told me, that they feel that the Likud Party and the right wing do have a racist policy towards them, and it's very scary for them.

TAPPER: That's right. We should underline the fact that these Arabs, these Palestinian voters, these are citizens with full voting rights.

But, Christiane, let's move on. I want to ask about the hypothetical if Netanyahu is not able to hold on to power, because it's too close to call now. We don't know. How do you think that would impact Israel's stance, the official

government stance, on these talks going on with Iran to at least contain the Iranian nuclear program?

AMANPOUR: Well, obviously, we know Prime Minister Netanyahu's position on it, that it's better not to have a deal. He doesn't like this deal. Many people disagree with him.

But the leaders in Israel have not taken a huge stance on what they might do differently. It's obviously not an election winner to suddenly look like you're going to be soft on Iran or on the nuclear program. So, there's not a huge amount of that in the public forum regarding what Isaac Herzog must do, except that he has said he will do what the respect with the United States is one that is not just strong but good tempered, better and very, very close.

TAPPER: That's right. Obviously, as in many countries, the biggest issue in Israel was the economy and affordable housing, a very big issue in Israel, not so much the Iranian nuclear deal, as much as affordable housing.

Netanyahu telling supporters Sunday, though, that he would not allow a Palestinian state if he were to become prime minister again. If he does not win, again, he's ahead in the Channel 2 poll, so we don't know what's going to happen, would Herzog move towards trying to restart peace talks for a two-state solution?

AMANPOUR: Well, he certainly talked about peace talks. And again, they have been quite -- again, this whole issue has not been their main issue. Herzog talked mostly about the economy, the things that most of the people were concerned about. But, it is all tied in with the whole Arab situation as well.

I spoke today to a key partner in the region of the United States, Saudi Arabia, and it's a Saudi peace plan that is on the table, that Netanyahu pretty much has dumped, and it's going to be a Houdini act to get back to it. But what it means, according to the Saudi former intelligence minister, is that if there is no two-state solution, there is a one state solution. What does that mean? You know, potentially 6 million Palestinians being given, presumably, full democratic rights alongside 6 million Jews.

What is going to happen to Israel as a democratic state for the Jewish people? That is a huge issue.

Plus, many people have said in the last, they said, oh, well, you know, if Netanyahu wins, he'll come back to the peace table. Some Arab leaders think he could be Nixon goes to China.

But I put it to the former Saudi intelligence minister. It's been nine years, no movement on the peace process under Netanyahu. Is the world deluded? Here's what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PRINCE TURKI AL-FAISAL, FORMER SAUDI INTELLIGENCE CHIEF/FORMER AMBASSADOR TO U.S.: I was never one of those who believed that Mr. Netanyahu was going to deliver on the two-state solution, because of his actions and his words. And he's living up to that expectation for me. So, if there are those who are deluded, I hope that they will have awoken by now.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: And that's it. That's it, Jake.

So, we've got the peace process. You've got, you know, the deal with Iran and you've got the Arab citizens of Israel demanding their rights, in a very polarized, last ditch attempt to win, he pretty much ditched all of that.

TAPPER: And we still have no idea how it's going to end.

Christiane Amanpour, live for us in London, thank you so much.

When we come back, an Air Force veteran arrested for trying to join ISIS. What this American citizen is accused of doing and how he was caught, coming up next.

Plus, a terrifying moment for passengers aboard a United Airlines flight late last night after a man rushed to the cockpit screaming, "jihad, jihad!" What are U.S. government officials saying about his background and any potential links to terrorist organizations?

<16:25:04> That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Welcome back to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper.

Topping our national lead today, a former American service member has been charged with trying to join ISIS. Federal prosecutors are accusing Tairod Nathan Webster Pugh, an Air Force veteran, with providing material support to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

CNN justice correspondent Pamela Brown is here with the late-breaking details about this shocking report.

Pam, how are prosecutors alleging that Mr. Pugh became radicalized?

PAMELA BROWN, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Well, this case is really interesting, Jake, on that note, because we have seen in so many other material support cases young people being radicalized by ISIS propaganda overnight. In this case, it appears that the suspect became radicalized over the course of the last decade. In fact, he was put on the FBI's radar back in 2001 when one of the colleagues at American Airlines alert authorities, saying he was sympathizing with Osama bin Laden. This is the first case we know of, of a U.S. military veteran allegedly trying to link up with ISIS.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): A U.S. Air Force veteran stopped in Turkey this January for allegedly trying to join ISIS, according to just unsealed court document. Tairod Nathan Webster Pugh, a 47-year-old former avionics instrument specialist.