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AT THIS HOUR WITH BERMAN AND MICHAELA

Republicans Prep for Wednesday Night CNN Debate; New Poll Shows Trump on Top, Fascinating Movement; Latino Activists Plan Protest of Trump Rally; Another Migrant Boat Capsizes with Children, Infants OnboardAired 11:30a-12p ET

Aired September 14, 2015 - 11:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[11:30:00] JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: With so many negatives, you would think these other candidates would be able to capitalize on that, yet every time they try and all the candidates who try, they seem to melt away.

ANA NAVARRO, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: That part is true, but it's also true that, I think, you know, Donald Trump has managed -- Donald Trump and Ben Carson now have managed to consolidate the anti- establishment outsider vote. The rest of the field, 15 -- well, now 14 others are splitting that pizza pie amongst 14 other candidates.

So, those slices look pretty, pretty small. You know, as the field goes whittling down, that is subject to change. And like I say, you know, I also think Donald Trump is held to a different scrutiny. They don't see him as a politician. They don't judge him as a politician. Any one of the multiple kind of outrageous, controversial things he has said, would have sunk any other campaign. It's actually helped his.

BERMAN: In economic terms the marginal rate of outrageousness is getting smaller and smaller for Donald Trump.

(LAUGHTER)

Ana Navarro, Ron Brownstein, great to have you with us. Thank you so much.

Up next for us, the strategy, the risks for each candidate as they prepare for this showdown. What do they each need to do? What do they each need to avoid? We're just getting some big news involving Ben Carson.

Plus, overwhelmed and desperate for a solution, leaders try to figure out what to do with thousands of refugees as another raft capsizes with children, infants on board.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:35:04] BERMAN: John Berman, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. Look at that. The stage literally being set for round two of the Republican presidential debate Wednesday night right here on CNN. What a stage it is. With Ronald Reagan, the plane he used as Air Force One, directly behind a beautiful location for what will be a pivotal debate.

We just got some breaking news in the poll category. A new poll from Monmouth University out of New Hampshire, and it shows some fascinating movement. Out in front, Donald Trump with 28 percent. But look at Ben Carson in New Hampshire at 17 percent, solidifying that number-two spot now across the country. John Kasich in third at 11 percent. Ted Cruz at 8 percent. Jeb Bush melting away at 7 percent. Carly Fiorina tied with him, too.

Want to talk about what these candidates all need to do as they head here to Simi Valley. For that, I'm joined by CNN political commentators, Donna Brazile and Margaret Hoover.

Guys, what I want to do is name some candidates and I want you to tell me what their biggest goal and biggest risk is for them Wednesday night.

Donna, I want to start to you.

Let's talk the frontrunner, Donald Trump, biggest goal, biggest risk.

DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: There's no question, he's at the top of the polls. I think his job on Wednesday night is to add a little substance to the sound bites that he's been giving. I believe that's the only way Donald Trump will be able to remain at the top of the polls.

BERMAN: What about the risks?

BRAZILE: His risk, of course, is taking cheap shots and trying to column punch. The other risk, of course, is this is being held at Ronald Reagan Library and someone should remind him not to talk too loudly.

BERMAN: Everything's a little different when there's a big Air Force One behind you and there is this vector, the aura of Ronald Reagan surrounding you.

All right, Margaret Hoover, Ben Carson, number two nationally, number two in Iowa, number two in New Hampshire, now center stage, standing next to Donald Trump. Biggest goals, biggest risks for him?

MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Biggest goal for Ben Carson is to solidify his status as the anti-Trump. You saw he's number two in the polls nationally, New Hampshire and Iowa. He's taken a decidedly different tone than any other candidates with Donald Trump. He actually apologized to Donald Trump about his comments about religion that infer Donald Trump wasn't a religious person. He's not taking this guy on the nose.

He's actually trying to be the opposite. If he can solidify himself as a sound alternative to the Iowa voters, the New Hampshire voters, who are actually sensitive and care and don't like the brashness, he actually may be able to go into the primaries a lot longer than some of these other candidates. His biggest risk is adding meat to the bones of his policy, some substance. He doesn't have the sort of policy experience and a lot -- he's obviously an advanced neurosurgeon, knows health policy. But when it comes to foreign policy, drones, all these pitfalls he hit in the past, he has to make sure he hits those key notes.

BERMAN: Donna Brazile, what about Jeb Bush? Now not just behind in the polls, but pretty far behind, in Iowa, New Hampshire, and nationally.

BRAZILE: Well, as you know, he's using an exclamation point to, I guess, say that he has a lot of energy. I think he has to show energy, he has to show that he's enthusiastic. He has to show that he's ready to take on, not just Donald Trump, but some of the big issues facing this country. That's his problem right now, is that people don't -- people believe he's melting. That he's not the candidate of the future. He's a candidate of the past. His last name hasn't helped him.

BERMAN: What about a risk for him right now? I mean, he has that exclamation point behind his name on his campaign posters. Will it stick?

BRAZILE: No, I don't think so. I think he needs to remind people that as a governor he did a lot of great things. He has a vision for the future. That's the only way to get past his last name. Otherwise, I would not get involved in what a call a tit for tat against Donald Trump. That helps Donald Trump. Jeb Bush probably needs to pick on Scott Walker or one of the other former governors and see if he can get a little bit of -- a little bit more energy going on the stage.

BERMAN: All right, Margaret. What about Carly Fiorina, one of the most captivating candidates to emerge from round one. She's on the main stage. She's getting a lot more publicity but the poll numbers, at least nationally, haven't seemed to move that much.

HOOVER: Carly's biggest challenge, biggest goal, is to solidify her status as a top-tier candidate. Look, she has all the advantages she needs. She's an outsider from Washington. The electorate is craving someone who is not a professional politician. And it's easy to break away from the kid's table like she did last time. She's got to keep that going forward so she can really solidify herself as a credible, top-tier candidate. Her biggest risk, look, she's got to answer to some of the hits against her that Donald Trump, frankly because he's Donald Trump, has picked up steam. She has to answer credibly about her business record and I think she should avoid getting into the tit- for-tat with Donald Trump. Nobody has survived it yet. I don't think she'll be the first.

[11:10:13] BERMAN: All the other guys, we didn't talk about, their goal. To be talked about the next time.

BRAZILE: To be talked about, right.

(LAUGHTER)

BERMAN: Donna Brazile, that's a big goal. Guys, thank you so much for being with us. Really appreciate it.

HOOVER: Thanks, John.

BERMAN: One person not on this stage Wednesday night, Rick Perry. He's not coming. He dropped out. The first Republican casualty in this race. Big question now, who will be second?

Show of defiance and refusal to back down. The Kentucky clerk stands her ground and says she will not issue same-sex marriage licenses. This is breaking news out of that county. The marriage licenses are being issued from that office, so what will she do about it?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:44:45] BERMAN: Before Donald Trump arrives here in Simi Valley for the Wednesday's presidential debate, he has a date in Dallas. Tonight, he'll speak at a rally at American Airlines Center, where the Dallas Mavericks play basketball and where Motley Crue will play sweet music next month. All 20,000 free tickets for the Trump event are gone. Scalpers are reportedly selling them now for $200.

Latino activists plan to greet Donald Trump with a rally to protest his views on immigration. A new poll finds seven out of 10 Latinos have a negative view of Donald Trump.

I want to talk more about this big event with Jonathan Tjarks, the chief political writer for "Austin American Statesmen."

Jonathan, Texas does not have -- is not an early voting state, but one thing it does have is a lot of Republican voters, and a lot of those people are going to fill that arena to see Donald Trump tonight.

JONATHAN TJARKS, CHIEF POLITICAL WRITER, AUSTIN AMERICAN STATESMAN: Yeah, and, in fact, Texas is fairly early. It's March 1st, which is right after South Carolina. And it's with about, I think, seven other southern states and a few others. So, it's a big deal. And it's got the most delegates outside of California, so this is Trump's first big appearance in Texas. He was at the border in Laredo for a brief fact- finding mission of sorts. But this syndicates the fact that, you know, people are scalping tickets for a free event indicates, you know, his draw. I'm heading up there right after this interview. And the -- it's at 6:00 and the doors open for media at 10:00 a.m., so I suppose that gives you about eight hours of anticipation.

BERMAN: Oh, wow.

TJARKS: Yeah.

BERMAN: So, a lot of anticipation.

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: Now, the complexion just changed in Texas, right? The long- time governor, Rick Perry, former governor, he just dropped out of the race. I imagine he had at least some support in Texas. Have you a sitting Senator, Ted Cruz, running. Rand Paul with some Texas connections in the race as well. Any sense on where the Texas vote is going? And I should say where the Texas money is going, because that's almost just as important in some cases.

TJARKS: Yeah. You know, at this point, I mean, part of the reason sort of fitting with Perry's withdrawal, he was not much of a factor here anymore. You know, it was sort of a campaign of personal redemption in a crowded field with a lot of other candidates. People weren't that interested in giving him a second look. Cruz is formidable and, you know, would have much more of an on the ground organization, having, you know, on the Senate seat not that long ago. So, I think it's more Cruz/Trump.

It's interesting there because Cruz has, you know, sort of portrayed himself as an ally of Trump's. He's been the one not to criticize him to say he's onto something. You know, at some point he'll need to separate himself if Trump is still in and they obviously are very different on social issues. But, you know, I think that they are the two prime contenders. It's proportional here, so it's not winner take all. Both can compete with come out with a lot of delegates but for Cruz it's important because it is his home turf.

BERMAN: Perry's out. Who's the next to go?

TJARKS: I would nominate Scott Walker or Chris Christie. Walker, you know, six or seven months ago was the front-runner. He was right there with Ted Cruz even here in Texas at the top. He's fallen like a rock since Trump's got in. He doesn't project -- it doesn't seem at the last debate didn't project very well. He's now using the theme he's going to wreck havoc in Washington, which seems a little bit over the top to make up for maybe his low-key persona. It sounds like something that -- the battle cry of the British in 1812 or maybe Robert E. Lee in 1861, but it seems like he's trying too hard. And he's now focusing his campaign exclusively on Iowa and South Carolina. He's skipping a big event in Michigan.

BERMAN: He's got a big night ahead of him.

TJARKS: Yeah. And the problem is --

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: -- Wednesday night.

TJARKS: Yeah. And Christie has, you know, has the Bridgegate scandal.

(CROSSTALK)

TJARKS: Yeah. Thank you.

BERMAN: Jonathan Tjarks, thank you for being with us. Really appreciate it. Enjoy the Trump event in Dallas tonight.

TJARKS: Thanks very much. BERMAN: Coming up for us, searching for new homes. Thousands of

refugees crossing through Europe. They're desperate for help. Up next, new information on how countries are changing their security policies at the border.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:23:04] BERMAN: Breaking today, children, infants among the 34 family members dead after a boat capsized in a desperate attempt to escape to Europe. So many people are lining up leaving everything behind for a chance to ride a train or a boat, all to get to a better life.

Our Ivan Watson joins us right now, and he is at the border between Greece and Macedonia where so many of the immigrants are waiting to cross -- Ivan?

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: John, at this border, it is an informal crossing on the border, and pretty much barbed wire here, but the Greek authors into that side have been allowing through migrants and refugees here to Macedonia, and it is a regulated and constant stream of people, and in one 24-hour period more than 8,600 people crossing through, and so there are people waiting for their chance to be ushered through.

And now, among the people among the refugees and migrants are working up the Turkish coast through these unseaworthy dinghies, and that is where these boats capsized and 34 of those people on board died, and some of them children can and infants. It is a dangerous journey and all of it is strange, because that coastline is beautiful, and the tourists normally flock to those islands and beaches, and instead, people are dying there.

This crowd, the wave of humanity that we have seen move through here are not going to be staying in Macedonia, John, they are likely to move immediately onwards toward the next border Serbia, and they want to move onwards to countries like Germany, Finland and Sweden -- John?

[11:55:00] BERMAN: Ivan, quickly, any problems? Are these refugees having trouble being processed moving border to border?

WATSON: It is pretty smooth here. They have a document here to say they can stay 72 hour, and then the Macedonians usher them to trains to take them to the next country or on to buses. We have seen some problems. There was an Iraqi guy who came up to me and said, I threw my passport in the ocean, in the Aegean Sea, and what do I do next? But for the most part, they say they can go through.

And some European countries say they will restrict, impose restrictions on the borders, and that is where we will have bottlenecks, the people on the move start to build up on the borders. And the situation will be far more desperate in the days and weeks ahead, and that something we will watch -- John?

BERMAN: Remarkable image here, Ivan, as the line winds its way from one European country to another as these people walk to safety. Ivan, thank you for being with us.

And thank you all for joining us AT THIS HOUR. Our special coverage from the Reagan Presidential Library, the CNN debate is Wednesday night, it will continue.

"Legal View" with Ashleigh Banfield starts right after this.

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