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NEW DAY SATURDAY

Doctors Without Borders Hospital Bombed; New Details on Oregon Campus Massacre; President Obama Pushes Gun Control After College Attack; Hurricane Hunters Fly into Joaquin; Pew Poll Shows Trump and Clinton Still Up; Priest Fired for Coming Out Gay; Louisville Basketball at Center of Sex Scandal. Aired 7-8a ET

Aired October 3, 2015 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[07:00:04] VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: We're following breaking news this morning. The U.S. apologizing for airstrikes overnight that caused collateral damage in Afghanistan, in their words. A hospital hit killing nine staff members, Doctors Without Borders, dozens of others hurt.

CHRISTI PAUL, CNN ANCHOR: And record flooding expected in parts of the Carolinas. Evacuations are already under way, rain falling on already saturated grounds. We're talking about 10 to 15 inches forecasted here. And that that could cause conditions that have not been seen in more than 125 years.

BLACKWELL: And new polling this morning shows the GOP race for the White House tightening for some. But with Donald Trump still leading far ahead, you might be surprised that the issue that's winning over voters.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.

PAUL: We are always so grateful for your company. Thanks for waking up with us here. I'm Christi Paul.

BLACKWELL: I'm Victor Blackwell. Good to be with you.

PAUL: Yes. Let's start with this breaking news out of Afghanistan this morning. I want to show you some of the latest pictures we're getting as well. Nine staff workers of Doctors Without Borders are killed and at least 37 people are injured.

Here are the pictures we're getting in this hour after U.S. airstrikes rocked the trauma center. This is in the northern city of Kunduz. And this is the first video from the scene we should point out. You see the burned out building, you see the smoke that's still billowing even from the rooftop there.

Inside, completely destroyed. In fact, once this video gets around towards the back, you may still see the flames inside. This is from earlier before the sun came up. But it just engulfed this hospital over night when it was bombed. And we should point out bombs repeatedly we've now learned.

BLACKWELL: Yes. And now doctors are scrambling to treat the injured in another, I guess, area they're trying to treat some of these people. Some operating theater there. Doctors Without Borders released this statement, "We're deeply shocked by the attack. The killing of our staff and patients and the heavy toll it has inflicted on health care in Kunduz."

PAUL: Let's go to CNN international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson in Paris. This is the city of course where Doctors Without Borders was founded.

And, Nic, we know that the U.S. military is saying airstrikes, and I want to quote this here, may have resulted in collateral damage to a nearby medical facility. But Doctors Without Borders say the bombing continued more than 30 minutes after officials in Washington and Kabul were informed. Do you have any more insight this morning as to what may have happened here?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: We know that on Monday the Taliban took control of the town of Kunduz. Some of their first targets were the hospital there. They went ward to ward looking for injured Afghan soldiers where we are told as well that medical workers were targeted.

We know that since Monday the Afghan government and the Taliban have been fighting for control of the town. We know that overnight when these airstrikes happened that there was fighting near this -- near the Doctors Without Borders' hospital facility. It's quite a large facility over several hundred yards in the center of the city. A very significant building, a building that's known to a lot of people, indeed.

Doctors Without Borders say they gave the GPS coordinates to both Kabul and Washington as recently as five days ago. They say as well that they have treated this week about 400 patients there. But right now nine of their staff, they say, are dead. The hospital is partially destroyed, they say. Thirty-seven people in there, injured. Significantly injured. Nineteen of them met Doctors Without Borders international and local staff among those significant injured.

There were 105 patients as well as their family members inside the hospital at the time that these strikes took place. And it does certainly seem from what Doctors Without Borders are saying is that these strikes took place over a period of about 30 minutes because they say after the first strike, they called again both Kabul and Washington to inform them. And it took 30 minutes for those airstrikes to stop.

We know that the U.S. has deployed airstrikes there to back up the advisers, military advisers, NATO and U.S. military advisers that have been on the ground in Kunduz, supporting the Afghan National Army. Earlier this week when we've been given descriptions of how the airstrikes have been used, we've been told that they have been called in when troops have been directly threatened by Taliban forces. That's been the dynamic of the battle. And of course, it does seem

that battle was fighting very close to this medical facility when the strikes took place -- Christi.

[07:05:01] PAUL: All right. Nic Robertson, thank you so much for bringing us the very latest there from Paris, the home of the founding of Doctors Without Borders. We appreciate it.

BLACKWELL: The U.S. military has opened an investigation into the incident. And we'll talk about what that investigation likely looks like in a moment.

But I'm joined now by CNN military analyst, retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling and retired Lt. Col. Bob McGinnis.

Good to have both of you.

General, first to you, we've heard Doctors Without Borders' side of this, that they alerted those in Kabul and in Washington as early as September 29th. From the military side, how could something like this happen?

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, there are several ways, Victor. First of all, when you're alerted about a facility in a specific area the coalition air force will put something called a no- fly area on that particular GPS coordinate. So you have a pinpoint dot on a map where you say, something is there, try not to hit it or don't hit it, rather.

But when the fluidness of the battlefield takes place, and you have engaged with troops on the ground, sometimes there are mistakes. It could be a mistake in what's called the Nine Line Report, which is what the spotter on the ground sends to the aircraft in the air, giving the target, the target location of its troops on the ground, where the spotter is. But then it also has -- it connects to this airplane traveling several hundred miles an hour with a pit site on board, which will drop a precision bomb.

So there are all sorts of things that could go wrong with a precision strike. Those are just a few of those. And these were all the kind of things that will be investigated. Did the pilot have in this no- fly area? Did the nine line report that went from the guy on the ground to the airplane, was it correct with the right data? Was there something wrong with the aircraft? Was there something wrong with the bomb or the weapons system?

All of those things will be a part of the investigation.

BLACKWELL: All right. Let's keep this video up. This is -- let's go back to the video, the first video, at sunlight of this facility. You see a smoke stain there. The glow of the flames still inside the building. We know nine aid workers there with Doctors Without Borders killed. Dozens of others injured.

And Colonel McGinnis, to you now, this investigation that's been launched, tell us what that likely looks like. LT. COL. ROBERT MCGINNIS, U.S. ARMY (RET.): You're going to have

people, obviously, sent into the area talking to all the friendlies on the ground, trying to, you know, actually look for bomb damage assessment, you know, what type of ordinates was used. They probably already know. And then find out from the people that actually called in the strike as the general indicated as to what was happening. Why would they call in that particular grid coordinate given likely the preclusion that you mentioned earlier?

So there is so much fluidity here, so much smoke in terms of, you know, how to dig true and determine what the real genesis of this particular strike is that it's tough to speculate in a meaningful way. The investigators, obviously, have a lot of experience in the area. They'll have spoken with the pilots. They will have spoken with some of the controllers in the area. Assuming they had aerial controllers as well as just ground controllers. And then they'll make their call.

They'll make a very subjective call on what the facts were, objective call on what the facts were and then let the chips fall as they will. Unfortunately in an accident, this happens, though, in the fluidity of a combat situation. We hate to see things like this happen, but at the same time they're inevitable given, you know, close in types of combat scenarios and buildup areas.

BLACKWELL: And as you mentioned the fluidity. One of the elements that is still fluid here, the numbers of those killed. Earlier the number was three, now nine and a reporter there with the "Guardian" that we spoke with this morning said that number could likely arise as we get more information throughout the day.

And back to you, General Hertling, just give us the context of Kunduz. Earlier this week the Taliban captured Kunduz, calling it their biggest victory in more than a decade. Then Afghanistan says we claimed the city a few days ago. I mean, talk about the crucial element of this city and what we're seeing here.

HERTLING: Well, first of all, Victor, the city of Kunduz, itself, I was there several years ago on a visit with some of our NATO allies when I was commanding in Europe. And that used to be the security of that city was provided by the German forces at the time. They have been out of there now for several years and have turned over the security to the Afghan forces. What's interesting about that, it was one of the more peaceful cities, one of the more secure cities in all of Afghanistan.

[07:10:06] They are close to the Tajikistan and Uzbekistan border. There's a lot of flow of goods and material between the borders. And it is a vibrant, cosmopolitan city that was very secure. The Taliban saw that as a primary target. And in fact, there is a lot of Taliban forces in the mountains and hills around the city of Kunduz. And they coordinated an attack primarily for the psychological and the propaganda rational.

If they can take Kunduz or if they can disrupt Kunduz it shows that the Afghan government in Kabul doesn't have control. Again this is a city that's just a few miles from Mazari Sharif to the west, which has NATO forces, some aircrafts, some special operating forces. So there is a continuing training and equipping of Iraq -- excuse me, Afghan Security Forces in this area. But it has been declined recently because they have taken up the fight. But there are some tribal influences in this area as well. Very many tribal influences. And the Taliban took this as an opportunity.

BLACKWELL: Well, we are still waiting to get more numbers and some clarity from both the U.S. government and Doctors Without Borders as there are still some who are unaccounted for.

General Hertling, Colonel McGinnis, good to have you both.

MCGINNIS: Thank you, Victor.

PAUL: This horrific shooting on an Oregon college campus has the president fired up this morning. His new verbiage on the issue of gun control. Plus new details for you as well on the shooter who is behind the massacre.

Also, I know a lot of you in the East Coast are just getting ready for what they're saying could be historic flooding here. We'll give you an update on what's happening in that regard.

Plus the University of Louisville now investigating explosive allegations that a basketball staff member paid escorts to have relations with recruits. That's ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:15:11] PAUL: Fourteen minutes past the hour right now and have some new details we want to share with you this morning about that gunman who killed nine people in a mass shooting at an Oregon community college. People who knew him described him as odd, as skittish and this morning school officials confirmed that he was indeed a student who was enrolled in that very class that he fired on.

Dan Simon is live in Roseburg with more of what's being discovered this morning.

Good morning, Dan.

DAN SIMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Christi. Well, at this point authorities are not publicly discussing a motive. But they are saying that this is a shooter who was prepared for battle. He had assembled an incredible amount of fire power, six weapons were found at the school, seven more were found at his home, and all the guns were purchased legally.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED CALLER: Dispatch as many ambulances as possible. We have upwards of 20 victims.

SIMON (voice-over): Chilling new details this morning in the Oregon college massacre. The gunman came heavily armed, prepared to kill as many as possible. UNIDENTIFIED OFFICER: Exchanging shots with him. He's in a

classroom.

SIMON: Investigators say the gunman brought a steel plated flak jacket, multiple pistols and a rifle.

CELINEZ NUNEZ, ATF SEATTLE DIVISION: Six were recovered at the school. Seven were recovered at the shooter's residence along with five magazines.

SIMON: Nine people were killed and nine others wounded when the 26- year-old who attended the college walked into its own English classroom and opened fire. In the middle of the rampage, the gunman handed his writings to a survivor to give to police, according to sources. In those pages the shooter rambled about his hatred toward black men and how he was frustrated about being a virgin, unable find a girlfriend.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Somebody is outside one of the doors. Shooting through the door.

SIMON: Why the shooter targeted Umpqua Community College is still unclear. He lived nearby in this apartment complex with his mother, who was reportedly fiercely protective of him. His family has been interviewed by investigators and CNN has learned the shooter suffered mental health issues and had sought relief.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Shocked, shocked is all I can say.

SIMON: Meanwhile, we're learning more about the victims of the shooting, who range in age from 18 to 67. Among the dead, Lawrence Levine, an assistant professor of English, Quinn Glenn Cooper, who loved dancing and voice acting, and Lucera Alcarez, she apparently wanted to become a pediatric nurse.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: One person's deranged act may have indeed broken all of our hearts, but he cannot prevent our hearts from growing back bigger and stronger.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SIMON: Well, I can tell you that this is still very much a community in shock. Just 22,000 people live here. If people don't know any of the victims personally it's the kind of town where they certainly know someone who does. Originally, it was thought that the school might reopen as early as Monday. But school officials apparently thought better of it and we now know the classes will be cancelled for all of next week -- Christi.

PAUL: Yes, it's going to take a long time for this community. You're absolutely right.

Dan Simon, appreciate seeing you this morning. Thank you, sir.

BLACKWELL: Yes. And as that community is mourning in Oregon, the president is fired up in Washington. Once again asking politicians to put aside rhetoric and focus on passing stricter gun laws.

Investigative correspondent Chris Frates is live from Washington, the bureau there.

Chris, the president's appeal extended beyond just officials and those elected to the American people.

CHRIS FRATES, CNN INVESTIGATIONS UNIT CORRESPONDENT: Well, that's exactly right, Victor. You know, the president continued to vent his frustration on Friday about his inability to pass what he called commonsense gun safety laws, telling reporters, there is nothing he can do to stop would-be killers. Mostly, he said, all he can do is talk.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Until the politics changes and the behavior of elected officials changes and so the main thing I'm going to do is I'm going to talk about this on a regular basis and I will politicize it because our inaction is a political decision that we are making.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FRATES: So taking a swipe at Republicans campaigning through to replace him, the president criticized their argument that mental illness, not guns, is to blame for mass shootings. Obama continued to make the argument that a majority of Americans support what he calls modest gun laws, like background checks. The problem he said is that the gun lobby has put money into politician's pockets and fear into public's heart. To people who are troubled by the mass shootings, he said this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: The people who are troubled by this have to be as intense and as organized and as adamant about this issue as folks on the other side who are absolutists and think that any gun safety measures are somehow an assault on freedom or communistic, or a plot by me to take over and stay in power forever or something.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[07:20:30] FRATES: So the answer Obama said is to rip a page from the Republican-NRA playbook. He said people who want to see more gun safety laws need to become single-issue voters and defeat politicians who oppose gun control, and in Congress on Friday, House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi and House Speaker John Boehner will create a select committee on gun violence. That committee would be aimed at proposing legislation to curb gun violence and mass killings -- Victor.

BLACKWELL: All right. Chris Frates for us in Washington. Thank you so much.

We'll be right back. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAUL: A gunman shot and killed a civilian police staff member outside police headquarters. This was near Sydney, Australia. And according to reports, the unidentified gunman tried shooting others as well. He, however, was shot dead at the scene. Now investigators haven't identified a motive. But they do say that terrorism has not been ruled out here.

BLACKWELL: The death toll from a massive landslide in Guatemala is rising. Reuters reports that at least 26 people are dead. But dozens more feared dead because as many as 600 people are still missing.

The president of FIFA is refusing to step down despite calls from big advertisers. Coca-Cola. McDonald's, Visa, Anheuser-Busch. Sepp Blatter, who's the subject of a Swiss criminal investigation involving alleged bribes, says leaving office would not be in the best interest of the game.

[07:25:16] PAUL: Robin Williams' widow and his three children from previous marriage has reached a settlement in the legal fight over the late actor's estates. The terms weren't disclosed but both sides expressed satisfaction over the settlement which remains subject to court approval. We should point that the attorney who's representing Susan Williams said she will remain in a San Francisco bay area home she shared with Williams and received living expenses to maintain the home for the rest of her life.

The East Coast could get hit with the worst flooding seen in decades. We're feeling for you, folks, up there. I know a lot of people already we've shown have been rescued from flooded roads and from homes. And they all want to know when the rain is going to stop.

BLACKWELL: And there is a mystery off the coast of the Bahamas. A ship and its crew have disappeared after sailing into the fury of Hurricane Joaquin.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAUL: Well, mortgage rates were mixed this week. Here's your look.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAUL: Twenty-nine minutes past the hour right now and we've got some breaking news out of Afghanistan this morning.

[07:30:00]

PAUL: Nine staff workers of Doctors without Borders are dead now and 37 people are injured, this after U.S. airstrikes rocked the trauma center here that you're looking at. This is in the northern city of Kunduz.

The U.S. military says the strikes, and I want to quote it here, they say, "may have resulted in collateral damage to a nearby medical facility, unquote." That is the facility they're referring to, you see with the smoke- stained windows. We do know the military says they are investigating the incident. But this is the damage; that was video just taken after the airstrikes initially; that roof actually is still smoldering.

CNN is working this story. We do have a live reporter there and we will have more for you at the top of the hour. But you can see even there, the flames were still burning inside that building even after the sun came up.

We also have new video for you of airstrikes from the Russian defense ministry. Take a look at this. The ministry says the air force has carried out 20 airstrikes in Syria just in the last 24 hours, destroying ISIS terrorist facilities, command centers and ammunition and POL depots.

BLACKWELL: Another developing story that we're following, Hurricane Joaquin could cause some of the worst flooding the East Coast has seen in decades. Police and firefighters -- you see them here in the Carolinas -- had to rescue dozens of drivers from high water, even had to evacuate people from their flooded homes.

Now let's go to New Jersey, where Joaquin has whipped up powerful waves along the coast there. The state could also be slammed by heavy rains and damaging winds in the next few days. Millions of people from Georgia to New York being drenched and it could be days before this rain stops falling.

CNN meteorologist Allison Chinchar with us now.

Fifteen inches of rain for some people?

ALLISON CHINCHAR, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Yes, that's right. And for some of these cities, this will be the most rain they've had since records have been kept. So again, we are trying to keep a close eye on exactly where the heaviest rain falls.

But it's not just the rain that's falling that also plays and factors. So let's take a look at Charleston in particular. Now what we have is the Charleston harbor. So as the rain begins to fall, you've got all of that moisture that's going to be funneled into the Charleston harbor.

Now the key thing to realize with Charleston is downtown Charleston only sits about 20 feet above sea level. It's not very high. The elevation is rather low. So when you get all of that water that funnels in, it can go backwards up towards the rivers. And then eventually it has nowhere to go. It starts coming down into the city itself. And we start seeing street flooding, things of that nature.

So again, we do have to keep in mind, it's not just the water that's coming down from the sky. It's also going to be the water that's coming in from the ocean.

So here's a look at some of those tides because that will also play a huge factor. High tide today, 1 o'clock this afternoon. Then we do see a little bit of a dip this evening. And then back up again overnight tonight.

But again, even though we expect a dip tonight, we still expect to have more rain and more rain on top of it so that dip really may not provide that much relief.

Here's a look at the rainfall estimates. This is the last 48 hours. Notice again from Charleston to Wilmington up to the Outer Banks, already, 5 to 7 inches in a lot of spots. And the worst is yet to come.

Here is a look at the flood threat. All of your green areas show the flood watch, the reds indicate flash flood warnings. Here are the estimates. Now this purple area right here, that's where we are talking 10-plus inches.

And again, it's a pretty big swath that goes from Wilmington all the way to Charleston and then some pockets in between about that. We're talking 15-plus inches of rain, again, in downtown Charleston. They haven't had 15 inches since they've been keeping records since the 1930s.

So again, in spots like that, it will be a very big deal. Again, the rest of Joaquin, as it continues to shift off to the north, well, that may in theory sound like a good idea. The rain just goes with it. So as we go up along the coast, that's when we start to see more of the flooding begin for parts of D.C. and eventually up towards New York -- Victor.

BLACKWELL: All right, rough weekend there, Allison Chinchar, thank you.

PAUL: This meanwhile sounds like the plot from the movie, "A Perfect Storm." There's a ship with 33 people on board missing this morning after getting caught in the middle of Hurricane Joaquin there.

This is El Faro, the picture here. This is a ship that was disabled after it was slammed by 30-foot waves and 150 mile an hour winds near the Bahamas two days ago.

And nobody has heard from this crew in the last 36 hours. Now the U.S. Coast Guard couldn't get close to its last known location near Crooked Island because of that storm, it was just too severe. It is resuming that search today, though. And we will have a live report from the Coast Guard on what's happening in the next hour. So do stay close for that.

Meteorologist Derek Van Dam, though, knows just how powerful Joaquin is. He flew into the eye of the storm with some hurricane hunters.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DEREK VAN DAM, AMS METEOROLOGIST (voice-over): Tonight's flight will take 12 hours, a long and turbulent flight. These Air Force reservists --

[07:35:00] VAN DAM (voice-over): -- are trained to fly in these dangerous conditions, bringing along a team of scientists who collect information from the storm using these data checkers, which helps predict where the storm will go and saving millions of dollars in storm preparation and, more importantly, saving lives.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It comes down to evacuate or not evacuate. Emergency management, they have the tough job. Forecasters, they have the tough job. We go in a storm. We get a rough ride. We collect the data. They take that information to help those guys do the tough job of making the hard decisions on who has to evacuate.

VAN DAM (voice-over): Lightning fills the darkness of sky. A few hours into our journey, sunlight reveals clouds and thunderstorms on the horizon. We are heading directly towards Joaquin.

VAN DAM: We are just about to punch through the eyewall, meaning we are actually going into the strongest part of the hurricane, feeling winds in excess of 150 miles per hour with a category 4 just like this. We have experienced severe turbulence. There is more to come.

VAN DAM (voice-over): As we get tossed around inside the cockpit, our seasoned pilot assures us we are in good hands.

VAN DAM: Being on this plane, is it structurally sound?

Is it safe?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, no, you are very safe in the 130.

VAN DAM: We are 7,000 feet above the Northern Bahamas in the center of major Hurricane Joaquin. This storm has been notoriously difficult to predict. But the weather data retrieved from the hurricane hunters will help improve the forecast greatly.

VAN DAM (voice-over): Multiple drop sounds are released into the sky, sending back information like wind speed and storm pressure in real time, right back to computers on board. Joaquin is now pushing north.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's a fox (ph) coming up.

VAN DAM (voice-over): As we make several passes over the storm, a missing ship is stranded in rough swells. We drop to 600 feet to help search, but thick clouds and bad visibility prevent us from finding the vessel. The hurricane hunters return to their mission, seeking more data from the storm before heading back to Biloxi -- Derek Van Dam, CNN, Biloxi.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLACKWELL: All right. We've got new poll numbers out in the race for president. Donald Trump still in the lead. Hmm.

How about Hillary Clinton? Is she holding her own? Or is she slipping here?

And who is gaining ground on either side? We've got all the answers there next.

Plus we're learning Pope Francis met with a same-sex couple while he was in the U.S..

What did they talk about? We've got exclusive details.

PAUL: And something exclusively on Facebook for you this morning, a remarkable act of kindness that a plane full of people were undoubtedly happy about. I spoke with the mom of this inconsolable child -- and they're on a plane. You know what that's like.

Well, the woman on the left came to her rescue in a very unique way.

Could you be a flight angel in a situation like this? Go to facebook/newday and check out the story and share your thoughts. We'd love to hear from you.

(MUSIC PLAYING)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:40:00]

(MUSIC PLAYING)

BLACKWELL: New polls out this morning from the Pew Research Center, Donald Trump maintains his lead with 25 percent of possible primary GOP voters in this race for president, that's their primary choice.

Meanwhile, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina gaining momentum, coming in 2nd and 3rd there, Rubio there as well, tied at 8 percent and then Senator Ted Cruz at 6 percent.

Democratic voters, let's turn to those polls. Hillary Clinton's poll numbers seems to be up and she has a double-digit lead over Senator Bernie Sanders.

Let's talk about the numbers and polls in general. We've got Geoffrey Skelley with us, a political analyst from the University of Virginia Center for Politics; also back with his professor of political science, Jason Johnson.

And Jason, I want to start with you. Let's put the GOP numbers back up because the man everybody expected would be the front-runner -- or at least the anti-Trump -- Jeb Bush didn't even make the top five here. He's in 6th place at 4 percent.

What is going on?

JASON JOHNSON, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE: Well, I will say right up front, I was one of those people who thought Scott Walker was going to do well. So clearly none of us are sure how these polls will work out.

Look, the fact of the matter is, Jeb has always had some difficulties, there are many conservative Republican primary voters who don't trust him on Common Core, who think he's a bit of a RINO. And his drop has been substantial. And I don't know that that's something he's really going to be able to recover from, seeing as how Trump has made him his whipping boy in most of the debates.

But I think right now probably the most dangerous person, for lack of a better word, to Donald Trump might be Marco Rubio. I've said before that Iowa voters tend to sort of swing late and people who are in 4th to 6th place might have a move. I think Marco Rubio has really been moving up in the polls in a way that won't be harmed as much by Trump's attacks.

BLACKWELL: All right. Geoffrey, let me come to you because you are one of the growing number of analysts who believe that surveys and these polls are becoming less trustworthy.

You wrote this, you wrote, "The science of public surveying in something -- is something, rather, in now of a crisis right now. Explain for us.

GEOFFREY SKELLEY, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Well, pollsters face a lot of problems. Probably the two foremost problems are that a lot of the people are using cellphones. Nearly half the population now uses only a cellphone.

And the other major problem is that a lot of people don't want to respond to pollsters. Response rates have fallen from, I mean, goodness, 80 percent or so in like the 1980s to even less than 10 percent now, which means it's really hard to get a sample. It's a lot more expensive to get a sample, a good sample. And, yes, these are just major challenges that pollsters face.

BLACKWELL: Yes, and Jason, I saw you on the monitor here nodding along during that explanation. I wonder if someone like Trump -- this has been the summer of Trump, although we have now moved into the fall -- can capitalize on not just name recognition but, just if, as needed in the Pew polls, they give us who you would support without listing the candidates, they give the name they know.

JOHNSON: Well, yes, it always helps when you are a well-known name. He's had a TV show that's very popular, he's had a brand that's been popular for decades and decades. But this is what I've always said about Donald Trump and his relationship with the polls.

You know, at the end of the day, Iowa is a caucus. It's not a primary. You got to have people willing to argue for you, you've got to have people willing to go into an empty church basement and argue on your behalf for six or seven hours.

And for all of Trump's speeches and all of his television appearances, he needs to be spending more time on the ground in Iowa. He could be doing great in national polls, but if he doesn't have that kind of effort on the ground in Iowa, he could still be --

[07:45:00]

JOHNSON: -- beat by somebody who has a better ground game. BLACKWELL: So, Geoffrey, how can these polls be fixed?

Is there a way to do that?

SKELLEY: They are searching for a solution. A lot of pollsters seem to be turning to the Internet. But there are questions about that methodology. There is really no obvious, you know, silver bullet out there.

With Internet panels, you run into the problem that it's not really a true probability sample because brand of sampling is all about everyone has the same chance of being called or asked the question.

With Internet panels, about nine out of 10 people use the Internet in the United States but that still leaves a decent percentage out there who don't and young people are more inclined to use the Internet, which is actually the reverse of how voter turnout usually works because young people seem to have a lower propensity to vote.

BLACKWELL: And there have been --

(CROSSTALK)

SKELLEY: -- major problems.

BLACKWELL: -- there have been surprises before, I know a lot of people were surprised in 2012 after the results in many of the battleground states, but for now it's the best we have.

Geoffrey Skelley, Jason Johnson, thank you both.

JOHNSON: Thanks, Victor.

SKELLEY: Thank you.

PAUL: Well, a Catholic priest fired for coming out. Why he says the church has to change in order to survive.

Plus, the University of Louisville basketball team at the center of a sex scandal now involving escorts and recruits. What Coach Rick Pitino is saying -- coming up.

[07:50:00]

PAUL: Edging to the 8 o'clock hour and we've been talking a lot recently about the record-breaking drought in California. In much of India, though, water scarcity is just a way of life. In the country's driest regions, families rely on water brought in by tankers. And even then, people use just 10 percent of what average Americans use.

This week's CNN hero found a solution for his homeland by looking to the skies.

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(MUSIC PLAYING) BHAGWATI AGRAWAL, SUSTAINABLE INNOVATIONS: Rajasthan is arid, dry, it is the driest region in India. In many villages, the groundwater is disappearing. Wells have dried up. Women will have to walk miles to fetch water for their family. They will do their dishes with sand or ash so they don't use water.

The water is so salty, you can hardly drink it. The only time that people get relief is during the monsoon season.

I was born in Rajasthan and came to the U.S. working with the corporate world. In 2003, after my company went bankrupt, I decided, I'm going to find a solution for the drinking water.

Aakash Ganga is a rainwater harvesting system. The rainwater is collected from the rooftops through gutters and pipes.

Then water is divided in two parts, one part for the homeowner, another part for the community. The main pipe, which is buried under the street, leads to the community reservoir, which is located about 500 meters away.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (from captions): We all used to be very worried about water. Now that we have the reservoir right here, we save a lot of time doing our daily chores.

AGRAWAL: The rainwater is pure, clean, safe. Today, we are helping 10,000 people live healthier lives. That's what keeps me going.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PAUL: What a smile there. To learn more about Bhagwati and his work, go to cnnheroes.com. Anderson Cooper, by the way, will reveal this year's top 10 heroes this Thursday on NEW DAY. Stay close.

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PAUL: Well, a priest who just came out as gay was fired by the Vatican. CNN correspondent Delia Gallagher is live in Rome with the very latest.

I'm sure a lot of people are wondering about this one, Delia, what do you know?

DELIA GALLAGHER, CNN VATICAN CORRESPONDENT: Well this is just news from this morning, Christi, that this Polish priest who worked in congregation for the doctrines of faith -- that's the Vatican's main office for doctrine, for the teachings of the church, came out last night in a video message, saying he was gay and that he has a boyfriend. The Vatican responded this morning, saying that he would no longer be

able to continue this duties because he has come out that he is in a gay relationship but also because the Vatican said, given that the synod, this important international meeting of bishops and cardinals is beginning tomorrow, they took his message to be a kind of pressure on the synod for gay rights issues.

So the Vatican clearly unhappy with what this Polish priest has done and has essentially has fired him this morning.

PAUL: A lot of people are looking at the pope's recent to the U.S., though, and wondering if there's a contradiction here because the pope just met with a gay couple, showing his openness to them.

What does it say about that and now this sudden firing?

GALLAGHER: Well, the pope spokesman said, with regard to the meeting with the pope's old friend, Mr. Grassi (ph), who is gay, who is not Catholic. He's an old student of Pope Francis, that that meeting had been set up by the pope personally, that he wanted to meet his friend. He had met him several times in the past.

And that the pope, in this pastoral context meets with many people and that's a sign of his kindness and his outreach to many people.

The clear difference here with this morning's is about the Vatican priest, is that Mr. Grassi (ph), the pope's friend, is not a priest and that for the Vatican for priests, they are expected to not be in relationships, gay or otherwise. So that's kind of the central difference between these two men -- Christi.

PAUL: OK. Good to know. Delia Gallagher, we appreciate it very much, thank you.

BLACKWELL: All right. So we've talked a lot about the rain coming this weekend. But it's not just rain, we're talking historic floods, maybe even dangerous. We've seen dangerous, so not a maybe here.

But will that impact college football games scheduled for today?

Let's go to CNN's Coy Wire, out in the rain gear.

Coy, what does this mean for the games?

Are they going to go on or, considering the danger, will some of them be postponed?

COY WIRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A lot of rain has occurred but it's still football weather, Victor. I'm here for the big Clemson-Notre Dame matchup between two undefeated teams. But the end of today, 4 to 6 more inches of rain they're calling for. That'll be two months' worth of rain in the past three days.

But, Victor, it's basketball that's making sports headlines on a college football Saturday. Louisville and the NCAA are investigating allegations that a former staff member paid an escort service to provide sex for recruits.

The book authored by the madam at the center of the alleged arrangement claims that former director of basketball operations, Andre McGee, paid over $10,000 to provide strippers and prostitutes during recruits' campus visits.

Louisville head coach Rick Pitino said that he's spoken to McGee just once since learning about the book's content. Pitino said McGee did not admit to any wrongdoing, listen.

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RICK PITINO, HEAD COACH, MEN'S BASKETBALL, LOUISVILLE: When this first broke a month ago, I questioned everybody, if anybody has even a little knowledge or hearsay or seen anybody. And everybody, to the person, over 15 people said they had no knowledge of anything, never seen anything.

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