Return to Transcripts main page

IDESK

IAEA Certifies Iran as Compliant; Iran Set to Add to Global Oil Glut; Final Democratic Debate before Iowa Caucuses; Tennis Authorities Reject Match-Fixing Cover-Ups; Oil Prices Near Lowest Level Since 2003; Missing Bookseller Reappears on Chinese State TV. Aired 10-11a ET

Aired January 18, 2016 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[10:00:00]

(MUSIC PLAYING)

LYNDA KINKADE, CNN HOST (voice-over): Hello and welcome to the INTERNATIONAL DESK. I'm Lynda Kinkade.

The relationship between the United States and Iran may be entering a new era. After an historic weekend U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry spoke to

CNN a short time ago and said there is still much to be done but the U.S. can build trust with the Atlantic republic over time.

His comments come after a prisoner swap, in which four Americans held in Tehran were released in exchange for seven Iranians held in the U.S.

In addition, on Saturday, the International Atomic Energy Agency certified that Iran was complying with a deal to curb its nuclear program. That led

to the lifting of some decades-old sanctions that had been crippling their economy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN KERRY, SECRETARY OF STATE: Yesterday -- or two days ago now, I guess it is -- was as complex a day as I have been through because there were so

many moving parts and so much need for simultaneity to build confidence.

But Foreign Minister Zarif acted professionally and when he gave his word, he kept his word and I think that's important in terms of our relationship

going forward.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And you trust him?

KERRY: Well, you know, we don't build these relationships based on trust at the earliest stages.

You remember what Ronald Reagan said, "Trust, but verify."

Obama, President Obama has said, "Don't trust, but verify."

So we approach these issues with a view toward building the trust over time. It doesn't happen in a -- you know, in one or two days or one or

two years.

But we can build trust if we see that this program, indeed, is adhered to thoroughly and also if Iran will begin to join with us to bring peace to

Syria, deal with Yemen, reduce its activities in other countries. There are a number of things that we need to work at.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KINKADE: And CNN's Frederik Pleitgen joins me now live from Landstuhl Medical Center, which is southwest of Frankfurt in Germany, where the

released Americans are being treated.

Fred, no doubt a lot of relief.

What can you tell us about their condition?

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, certainly a lot of relief but at the same time it still appears to be clear that, of

course, these three men went through a lot of trauma and, of course, they're receiving medical treatment here at the Landstuhl facility, both

psychologically as well as physically, also, especially in the case of Jason Rezaian.

There was a lot of concern about his state of his health while he was in detention there at Evin Prison in Tehran, which is notorious for the tough

conditions there.

He told the editors of "The Washington Post," the newspaper that he works for, that the solitary confinement that he faced there was actually the

toughest thing on him while he was in detention.

Now his brother, Ali Rezaian, is here. He's trying to meet up with Jason.

He said so far they haven't been able to meet face-to-face because the folks here at the medical center are trying to get this reintegration going

very, very slowly so as not to overwhelm these three men. But he does say that Jason has spoken to him. And here's what Ali had to say. Let's

listen in.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALI REZAIAN, BROTHER OF JASON REZAIAN: He seems in good spirits. He's together, he's really -- can't wait to get out there, see people, meet

people. But right now, he's got focus on getting himself better and getting out there. The first thing he asked for was some information.

He feels like he's been starved of information for the last 18 months; having to live off of the Iranian state TV and getting your news from there

isn't where you want to be as a reporter. And he just wants to see what's going on in the world. I think he was surprised and shocked at the amount

of attention that this was getting.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PLEITGEN: And, of course, at this point in time, the main thing for these three men, not just Jason Rezaian but of course also Amir Hekmati and Saeed

Abedini, the main thing for them is to go through these medical checks, to get better and then to meet up with their loved ones.

It's unclear at this point when they will be able to return from here, from Landstuhl, back to the U.S. But, of course, doctors are trying to make

that happen as fast as possible -- Lynda.

KINKADE: And, Fred, just looking at the Iran nuclear deal, because Iran is complying with that deal, some -- most of the sanctions have been lifted.

But some fresh sanctions have been imposed on companies and individuals.

What can you tell us about that?

PLEITGEN: Yes, well, that's because the sanctions against Iran are really a very complicated web, if you will. Not all of them are necessarily or

were necessarily related to Iran's nuclear program. Those certainly were the harshest sanctions against Iran, which have now been lifted. But Iran

also faces sanctions by the United Nations for supporting international terrorism, for instance, but also because of its ballistic missile program.

And one of the things that happened right after this nuclear agreement was signed between Iran and the P5+1 nations was that --

[10:05:00]

PLEITGEN: -- the Iranians tested additional ballistic missiles. And that certainly is something that so shortly after the signing of the nuclear

agreement did not go down well at all in the United States.

And so, therefore, in spite of the fact that you have gains on the front of the nuclear agreement being in place, the U.S. has also levied these

additional sanctions against Iran as well.

The interesting thing was the U.S. didn't announce these sanctions until those three Americans had left Iranian airspace; of course, they didn't

want to jeopardize their citizens being released by the fact that they were going to put these sanctions in place -- Lynda.

KINKADE: A lot of interesting angles to cover today. Fred Pleitgen in Landstuhl, Germany, thank you very much.

Now the Iran nuclear deal will put an even bigger dent in oil prices. Iran is part of OPEC and with sanctions lifted, Iran will start pumping half a

million barrels of oil per day into the global markets. And that number could eventually triple.

Here is a look at oil futures from Monday trading. It has been a volatile day. At last check, Brent crude was down just under 1 percent and U.S. oil

are both lower.

CNN's emerging markets editor, John Defterios, joins me now from Davos, Switzerland, where oil will be a major topic this week at the World

Economic Forum.

And, John, oil obviously is already at lows not seen since 2003.

How much lower could the price go once Iran starts pumping oil and exporting oil?

JOHN DEFTERIOS, CNN EMERGING MARKETS EDITOR: Well, Lynda, there's many that believe that we could test $25 and even $20 a barrel. There is a wide

range from the Wall Street analysts, who are more bearish right now.

But even the Nigerian energy minister, when he was visiting the Middle East last week, was suggesting $20 to $25 is not unheard of. And, of course,

Iran's going to change the equation, no doubt about that.

We've known that Iran is going to return to the market ever since the July agreement but now it's here. They have 35 million barrels in storage. As

you were suggesting, they're going to release a half a million barrels to the market. And they want to add 1.5 million barrels to the market over

the next year.

It will change the economics of oil, of course, but also the geopolitics, especially in the Middle East. Let's take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DEFTERIOS (voice-over): From oil-rich West Karun on the border of Iraq to Tehran's bustling bazaars and its ultra-modern malls --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is my brand, Addis (ph).

DEFTERIOS (voice-over): -- Iran looks forward to more prosperous times when its oil is sold again on world markets.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It is their one big salable commodity. And they have a large growing and young population, that they have to get some economic

growth for.

DEFTERIOS (voice-over): A decade of sanctions has badly damaged the Iranian economy, which is now on the brink of recession as regional

tensions heat up. The World Bank believes Iran's economic growth could reach 6 percent after sanctions end.

No wonder that Iran's oil minister says, maximizing output is a must.

BIJAN ZANGENAH, IRANIAN OIL MINISTER: Can we wait enough to produce after lifting the sanction?

Who can accept it in Iran?

Can we lose our share in the market?

It's not fair.

DEFTERIOS (voice-over): In recent days, Iranian officials have hinted that it may take a slower, more subtle approach towards ramping up production as

oil prices collapse.

But its official goal was to get back to pre-sanction levels by adding 1.5 million barrels a day by the end of the year. Iran says increased

investment by the major oil companies could further boost production.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We have to invest, we have to invest under any condition.

DEFTERIOS (voice-over): Arch-rival Saudi Arabia is already anticipating the added supply.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The Saudis have already started to discount their sales to Europe in order to better price their product against the coming Iranian

sales.

DEFTERIOS (voice-over): All this comes as Iranian and Saudi leaders battle for political influence in the Middle East. The rivalry has stoked bloody

proxy wars in Syria and Yemen and has hurt the effort to battle ISIS. Saudis fear the added oil revenue will further embolden Iran and allow it

to act more aggressively in the region.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You're really seeing the struggle for power in that part of the world, between Iran and Saudi Arabia, shifting over to the oil

supply area.

DEFTERIOS (voice-over): In other words, an already brutal price war could get even worse.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's a pure business competition. And I think this business competition will continue, regardless of any OPEC meeting could

take place in the near future.

DEFTERIOS (voice-over): Oil revenues will help Iran. But lifting sanctions could not come at a worse time for all the other producers.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

DEFTERIOS: And it certainly complicates the politics within OPEC. Iran is trying to come back into get its market share, Lynda. But, Saudi Arabia,

while Iran had the sanctions, added another 1.5 million barrels and they don't want to give that up against its archrival.

It's also worth noting, here in Davos, everybody is looking at this as the last major frontier market. We saw --

[10:10:00]

DEFTERIOS: -- Airbus order about 114 planes; Daimler, the big German automaker's going to go into Iran as well. That is the real prize for the

CEOs coming to Davos and it's something we're watching very carefully but also the dynamics of Iran pushing prices lower as it fights to get back

into the world market against its archrival, Saudi Arabia, no doubt a big issue here.

KINKADE: Certainly a lot to discuss at the World Economic Forum this week. John Defterios in Davos, Switzerland, thank you very much.

Burkina Faso is in the second day of a three-day mourning period after a weekend terror attack on a hotel in the capital; 29 people from at least

seven countries were killed and dozens more were wounded. CNN's David McKenzie is following this story and joins us now from Johannesburg.

David, survivors are now talking about the horrific experience they had.

What are you learning?

DAVID MCKENZIE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: What we're learning is that this was a well coordinated complex attack by Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb,

allegedly and that they went for several hours into that hotel.

It appears, according to eyewitnesses, they weren't really trying to get hostages but to kill as many people as they could. And eventually it was

Burkina Faso forces, helped by French special forces flown in from Mali, who ended that siege many hours after it began.

And they have revised their death toll, as you say, to 29 from several different countries, including Canada, Switzerland and the U.S. -- Lynda.

KINKADE: And what can you tell us about Mali and Burkina Faso and their forces uniting to fight terrorism?

What's being done in regard there?

MCKENZIE: Well, they haven't said exactly how they will be combining their forces but they have announced that they want to cooperate, particularly

Mali giving Burkina Faso assistance in fighting terror in that overall region.

Of course, the same group, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, coordinated that attack in Mali in Bamako in late November last year, where more than

20 people were killed. The prime minister of Burkina Faso, though, said, despite any attempts to try and prevent this kind of attack, it's extremely

difficult to do so.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): You can never despite provisions you can take as head of state predict when there will be an attack. We do

what we can and that is to take and apply certain security measures.

But as everyone knows, we are dealing with a type of unconventional warfare, it is the kind of war that is asymmetrical. We must prepare

ourselves to face it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MCKENZIE: And, Lynda, this is the first time the capital have dealt with this kind of attack but many of the countries in that region have dealt

with kidnappings and attacks on the margins, on the border regions of their countries -- Lynda.

KINKADE: OK. We will stay in touch with you. David McKenzie in Johannesburg, thank you.

Intense searches are underway in a neighborhood Baghdad after three Americans were reported missing. Two of them are dual Iraqi citizens. All

three were working as contractors when an Iraqi security official says they were abducted by a group of gunmen on Friday.

There is much more ahead on the INTERNATIONAL DESK. British lawmakers will soon debate barring U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump

from entering the U.K. We'll have a live report from London, including a response from Trump's side.

Plus as fans get ready for the Australian Open, tennis is now under a cloud of alleged wrongdoing.

(MUSIC PLAYING)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:10:00]

(MUSIC PLAYING)

KINKADE: Welcome back to the INTERNATIONAL DESK.

Some migrants who can't speak enough English may be forced to leave the U.K. That's part of a plan laid out by British prime minister David

Cameron. Mr. Cameron says it's part of an effort to better integrate Muslim women into the U.K.

Any spouses who enter the nation on the five-year program will have to take language tests up to 2.5 years and if they don't meet requirements, they

risk deportation, even if they have British-born children.

Well, next hour, British lawmakers will debate whether Donald Trump should be barred from the U.K. after his call to ban Muslims from entering the

U.S. More than half a million people have signed a petition to keep out the Republican presidential front-runner.

For more on this story, Max Foster joins us from outside Parliament in London.

Max, is this a serious proposition and has it ever been done before?

MAX FOSTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, I can't remember a time when a whole debate was dedicated to banning one person. There's certainly been

questions raised in Parliament about banning people and people have been banned in the past, people that are seen to be creating hatred in a

country, for example. So radical preachers or people who may be promoting terrorism of some sort of.

But they were specific questions laid out in the Commons. This is a debate entirely about one person. But it doesn't actually have any teeth. They

don't need a debate in Parliament to ban people. The home secretary can do that on her own, based on whether or not she thinks it's going to damage

the public in some way.

Having said that, a huge amount of attention on this debate. And anyone speaking, they are protected by parliamentary privilege, so they can say

what they like. And there's lots of people involved in the debate, who are vociferously against Donald Trump and his views. I really don't think

they're going to hold back.

Having said that, a spokesperson for Donald Trump has also said today that this whole thing is absurd. Sarah Malone, she's executive vice president

of Trump International Golf Links in Scotland, so a British executive, working for him, she says, "It is absurd that valuable parliamentary time

is being wasted debating a matter raised as part of the American presidential election."

And going as far as saying that Donald Trump was planning on investing another billion dollars in Scotland and he won't do it that if he's banned.

KINKADE: Certainly going to make for an interesting debate there. Now one politician, the opposition leader, actually wants to welcome Donald Trump

to the U.K.

FOSTER: Well, that's exactly right. And also the home secretary, she hasn't ruled out a ban but she hasn't said a ban is necessary at this

point. You have to think carefully about these things, she says.

David Cameron, the prime minister, also said he's against a ban. He said that Donald Trump did come over, that actually unite everyone against him.

So bringing politics, which is pretty divided here right now, together.

Jeremy Corbyn actually said, the leader of the opposition said he would like him to come over so Jeremy Corbyn could take him to a mosque in North

London in his consistency.

And the person leading the debate, Paul Flynn (ph) here today, also said it could be counterproductive, banning Donald Trump, because he said it may

give him a status of victimhood which may help him in the U.S. election. And that's what they don't want.

Anyway, it's going to be interesting to see what they have to say here today. It's going to be an illustration, I think, an expression of

discontent with Donald Trump and what he says.

KINKADE: Yes. And given they can say whatever they want, without fear of defamation, that should be interesting.

Max Foster, we will check in with you later. Thanks so much.

Well, in the U.S., a very different political debate and the last one before the Iowa caucuses, which is now just two weeks away. Democrats

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton sparred over everything from gun control to health care and even President Obama's record. Phil Matlington (ph) has

the highlights.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PHIL MATLINGTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The gloves --

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I), VT., PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think Secretary Clinton knows that what she says is very disingenuous.

MATLINGTON (voice-over): -- are off.

HILLARY CLINTON, FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm not sure whether we're talking about the plan you just introduced tonight

or we're talking about the plan you introduced nine times in the Congress.

MATLINGTON (voice-over): Just weeks before the first votes are cast, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders putting an exclamation point on a week

of sharp sparring on Sunday night.

Clinton at one point in the --

[10:20:00]

MATLINGTON (voice-over): -- campaign unwilling to even mention Sanders' name, now targeting the Vermont senator's record on guns and how he will

pay for his health care plan.

CLINTON: I have made it clear, based on Senator Sanders' own record, that he has voted with the NRA, with the gun lobby numerous times.

MATLINGTON (voice-over): Sanders moving to blunt both criticisms.

SANDERS: What her campaign was saying of Bernie Sanders, who has fought for universal health care for my entire life, he wants to end Medicare, end

Medicaid, end the Children's Health Insurance Program. That is nonsense.

MATLINGTON (voice-over): Shifting on guns a day before the debate.

SANDERS: What I said is I would relook at it. We are going to relook at it and I will support stronger provisions.

MATLINGTON (voice-over): And releasing his single payor health care plan just hours before taking the stage. Clinton criticizing Sanders for the

taxes required to pay for the proposal and its shift away from President Obama's signature achievement.

CLINTON: There are things we can do to improve it. But to tear it up and start over again, pushing our country back into that kind of a contentious

debate, I think is the wrong direction.

SANDERS: We're not going to tear up the Affordable Care Act. I helped write it. But we are going to move on top of that to a Medicare-for-all

system.

A little bit more on taxes, do away with private health insurance premiums. It's a pretty good deal.

MATLINGTON (voice-over): Sanders going on offense against Clinton's corporate ties.

SANDERS: You've received over $600,000 in speaking fees from Goldman Sachs in one year.

MATLINGTON (voice-over): Clinton defending not just her stance on Wall Street reform but President Obama's, as well.

CLINTON: But he's criticized President Obama for taking donations from Wall Street and President Obama has led our country out of the Great

Recession.

President Obama's work to push through the Dodd-Frank -- the Dodd-Frank bill and then to sign it was one of the most important regulatory schemes

we've had since the 1930s. So I'm going to defend Dodd-Frank and I'm going to defend President Obama.

MATLINGTON (voice-over): Sanders definitely turning a question on Bill Clinton's personal life into one of his best moments of the night.

SANDERS: We've been through this.

Yes, his behavior was deplorable. Have I ever once said a word about that issue?

No, I have not. I'm going to leave a debate Secretary Clinton and Governor O'Malley on the issues facing the American people, not Bill Clinton's

personal behavior.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KINKADE: And you can turn to cnnpolitics.com, where our countdown to the Iowa caucuses is underway. And there's plenty to see there, including a

recap of the debate. That's all at cnn.com/politics.

Well, football, cricket, track and field; now another sport, tennis, is under scrutiny for alleged wrongdoing. We'll have that story just ahead.

Stay with us.

(MUSIC PLAYING)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(MUSIC PLAYING)

KINKADE: Welcome back. World tennis authorities have denied covering up match fixing at the top of the sport, including at Wimbledon. Documents

reportedly handed over to the BBC and BuzzFeed by a whistleblower allege 10 years of players throwing games for money. Alex Thomas is following this

story and joins us now from London.

Alex, these allegations were raised in 2007.

Why have they surfaced again, what's new?

[10:25:00]

ALEX THOMAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think it's clear the media organizations involved with this report are releasing them to get maximum

exposure. And when better than on the opening day of the year's opening grand slam tournament?

There are four big major events that tennis players try and win each year. The Australian Open is the first; then Wimbledon, -- sorry; then the French

Open, Wimbledon and finally the U.S. Open.

So plenty of publicity, global headlines for the BBC and for BuzzFeed. (INAUDIBLE) capitalizing on a 12 months that have seen many sports hit by

scandal, particularly in football at FIFA and in track and field athletics at the IAAF -- Lynda.

KINKADE: And, Alex, this is certainly it does cast a dark cloud over the Australian Open. We know that 16 players -- there are allegations against

16 players of the top 50.

Any word on who these are or if they're playing in this grand slam?

THOMAS: I mean, that's the key detail that was missing from these new allegations, any names at all. All the claims would say is that an

investigation commissioned by the sport's own governing bodies in 2007 allegedly said that 28 players should be investigated for possible match

fixing.

And this report claims that the authorities didn't follow that up. Of course, a year later, all four governing bodies, the men's, women's

professional tours, the International Tennis Federation and the Grand Slam Boards, did set up the Tennis Integrity Unit to look into this very

problem.

And the authorities all spoke in one voice today at a news conference earlier and pointed to many statistics, showing the people they have

prosecuted and gone after for this form of corruption, including several players and a match official that have been banned for life.

But, nonetheless, it hasn't stopped top players speaking out about this and if they thought this was nothing, they probably would reject any sort of

comment at all, Lynda.

Even Serena Williams, the women's World number one and defending Australian Open champion, spoke about it, saying she had not come across the problem.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SERENA WILLIAMS, WORLD NUMBER ONE: Not that I'm aware of. When I'm playing, I can only answer for me. I play very hard and every player that

I play seems to play hard. And I think that, you know, we go as an athlete, I do everything I can to be not only great but historic.

And if that is going on, I don't know about it. I'm kind of sometimes in a little bit of a bubble.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

THOMAS: In contrast, the most successful men's player in tennis history, Roger Federer, said it is time to start naming names before we take this

debate further.

And Novak Djokovic, the current men's World number one and defending Australian Open champion, revealed that, back in 2007, his support staff

were approached with an offer for Novak to throw a match in return for $20,000, I think it was.

He said, of course, that was immediately rejected. So an example that even the top players have been approached, even if these claims aren't proof

themselves of match fixing at the highest level -- Lynda.

KINKADE: Right. Certainly an intriguing story. Alex Thomas, and you'll be back with "WORLD SPORT" in about 15 minutes from now where we'll all

tune in to that. Thank you very much.

The latest attempt by SpaceX to safely land a rocket in the ocean has failed. The landing pad is actually a barge floating in the Pacific Ocean.

The rocket almost made it but SpaceX says one of the legs failed to latch onto the platform and the rocket toppled over and exploded.

SpaceX is working on reusing rockets, which could save millions of dollars and cut the cost of space travel. The rocket accomplished its main

mission, which was putting its satellite into lower orbit.

Still ahead, Iran announces a major boost in oil production after the lifting of sanctions under the nuclear deal. What it means for global oil

prices in a live report just ahead.

(MUSIC PLAYING)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:30:00]

(MUSIC PLAYING)

KINKADE: Welcome to the INTERNATIONAL DESK. I'm Lynda Kinkade. And here are the headlines.

(HEADLINES)

KINKADE: Oil prices are expected to drop now that Iran will once again be contributing to the world supply. CNN's Richard Quest joins me now from

Davos, Switzerland, for more on this story, where the annual World Economic Forum is just days away from starting.

Richard, oil prices have already hit their lowest point since 2003, once Iran starts increasing its daily export, how much lower could the price go?

RICHARD QUEST, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: And that's the unknown question, how low can it go?

And how much of the Iranian increased production is already priced into the market?

Now at around $30-$31 a barrel, everybody said, well, we know sanctions are going to be lifted and Iran's going to be producing oil.

But what happened, of course, is there is such a glut of oil in the international market at the moment, maybe up to 1.5 million barrels a day,

it's believed, nearly 2 percent is in glut supply. But it's pushing prices down.

And even if the prices aren't going much further, there is no pressure for prices to go back up again. And that's the problem at the moment. We're

certainly not seeing any reason, Lynda, why prices should rise from their current levels; certainly if this level of supply stays high and demand --

it's -- demand hasn't fallen off completely but demand is weak.

KINKADE: And even without pushing prices back up, what's going to help stabilize the prices, given that Iran and Saudi Arabia's relationship is on

shaky ground?

They have severed diplomatic ties.

What do you think the chances are that they will work along with OPEC to get an agreement to stabilize the price?

QUEST: Well, OPEC was not -- I mean, is there going to be an emergency meeting, will they manage to -- ?

The Saudis have made it clear, they're in this for the long haul. We've already seen huge budget cutbacks from the last budget from the Riyadh

government And all their numbers were predicated on $50 a barrel. Now they're having to be redone on $30 -- $30, $35 a barrel. Saudi is not

going to suddenly roll over, having gone so far.

However, stability is what everybody is now seeking. And that's why I don't think you're going to suddenly see Iran taking any foolish or risky

steps because the downside is so great. Those who forecast $15, $17 a barrel -- and they may be at the extreme at the moment but they're starting

to move pretty close to the center.

[10:35:00]

KINKADE: And looking at Iran and the lifting of sanctions, it means Iran will now be able to reconnect with the global banking system and re-

establish trade ties.

What do you think it will mean for Iran's economy over the coming year?

QUEST: I don't think you're going to see a huge rush. I mean, you're going to see obviously them getting access to the assets that have been

frozen, some in the U.S., mainly in Europe, some in Asia. You're going to see them getting access to that.

They will be able to use that possibly more than $100 billion to start buying new spare parts to reinvigorate and regenerate and resupplying an

industry that has been absolutely starved not only of foreign investment but of any investment because of the sanctions.

But it's going to be gradual and, again, I come back to this idea that the Iranians aren't stupid. They ain't going to suddenly go on a bonanza.

They know this has to be a carefully controlled measured move back into the global economy.

But, Lynda, one thing they do have to show and they have to show sooner rather than later is real benefits to the Iranian people. That will be a

priority and that's where you're going to see it, in consumer products. You will see it obviously in the sort of companies that are invited into

the country.

KINKADE: OK. Excellent analysis, there, Richard Quest in beautiful Switzerland. Thank you very much.

Well, we want to tell you about a remarkable story you can catch later today on "AMANPOUR" about the effort to rid one girl of the ideology that

nearly led her to join ISIS. Our Atika Shubert got exclusive access to this teenage convert to Islam, who told Atika about how she was struggling

to understand her new faith when recruiters for ISIS in Syria made contact with her.

Now she's one of the youngest participants in a French program working to deradicalize youth.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LAURA BOUZAR, COUNSELOR (through translator): They are paranoid. ISIS is good. We are bad. Those who are right, those who are wrong. We are here

to make them doubt. We are here to make them think by themselves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KINKADE: You can hear from her own words in Atika's exclusive report. That premieres Monday on "AMANPOUR" at 7:00 pm in London, that's 8:00 pm in

Paris, only on CNN.

People living in Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman's Mexican hometown have learned to keep quiet and to keep to themselves. But that practice began long

before Guzman became an alleged drug lord.

(MUSIC PLAYING)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(MUSIC PLAYING)

KINKADE: Welcome back.

A missing Hong Kong bookseller has suddenly reemerged on Chinese state TV with a confession. Gui Minhai, who holds a Swedish passport, said he was

guilty in a fatal hit-and-run --

[10:40:00]

KINKADE: -- that happened back in 2003. State news agency reports that the 51-year old was convicted of drunk driving in 2004 and has allegedly

been on the run from Chinese police ever since.

On state TV Gui claimed that he returned to China voluntarily to see his mother and he said he turned himself in to Chinese authorities.

Discretion is normally considered a good quality to have in Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman's Mexican hometown, discretion is a means of survival. CNN's

Latin American affairs editor, Rafael Romo, tells us that particular behavior began long before El Chapo.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RAFAEL ROMO, CNN SR. LATIN AFFAIRS EDITOR (voice-over): It's the kind of place where everybody abides by a code of silence.

Badiraguato, in the rugged mountains of Northern Mexico, is the birthplace of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, the leader of the Sinaloa drug cartel. The

town of less than 4,000 people has learned to look the other way; it's a survival instinct learned over several generations.

Among the handful of people willing to speak to CNN in Badiraguato was Father Jesus Rafael Limon. He arrived six months ago to lead St. John the

Baptist Church.

JESUS RAFAEL LIMON, ST. JOHN BAPTIST CHURCH LEADER (through translator): One comes here with the purpose of bringing peace, bringing God. And God's

presence is always pleasant, especially for families who are crying and suffering, families who feel discouraged for whatever reason.

ROMO (voice-over): Not far from this church, you can see the town's name spelled out in white letters on a hill; a modest attempt to re-create that

much more famous sign in Hollywood.

Badiraguato is the gateway to the so-called Golden Triangle, an area where the states of Sinaloa, Chihuahua and Durango meet and, more importantly for

law enforcement officials, a region with high production of marijuana and poppy.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): You see humble people always trying to get ahead people who work hard and that sometimes migrate to

Culiacan, the state capital, so that they can become attorneys or doctors who return to work here and live a normal life.

ROMO (voice-over): But Badiraguato and the state of Sinaloa are also the cradle of some of the most powerful drug traffickers known to law

enforcement, men like Amado Carrillo Fuentes, the deceased Juarez cartel boss, and Rafael Caro Quintero, who was at one point the leader of the

Guadalajara cartel.

JOSE REVELS, MEXICAN AUTHOR (through translator): It's a state that has produced the most important and relevant drug trafficking bosses.

ROMO (voice-over): Residents who did not want to be identified said the mountains around Badiraguato are where things happen, things that nobody

wants to talk about, things that prudence and a survival instinct have kept hidden from law enforcement and the rest of the world for generations --

Rafael Romo, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KINKADE: And this news is just in to CNN. Morocco's state news agency reports arrest of a Belgian citizen directly connected to at least one of

the terrorists in the Paris attacks. Now the arrest happened last Friday in a city northeast of Casablanca.

The report says the suspect traveled from Belgium to Syria with one of the attackers and later joined ISIS. Now he traveled through Europe before

entering Morocco. The suspect remains under investigation.

That does it for us here at the INTERNATIONAL DESK. I'm Lynda Kinkade. "WORLD SPORT" with Alex Thomas is up next. Stay with us.

END