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Shooting Stabbing Reported in Denver Coliseum; Candidates Criss Cross Iowa in Last-Ditch Effort; Candidates Host Competing Rallies in Iowa. Aired 4-5p ET

Aired January 30, 2016 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:00:05] POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Breaking news out of Colorado to tell you about at the top of the hour here. Police in Denver right now responding to reports of multiple shootings, and a stabbing near the Denver Coliseum, this the took place just a short time ago. You're looking at live aerial images from our affiliate KCNC there in Denver. We know nine people have been taken to the hospital.

Again, nine people transported to the hospital. We do not know their condition, the state of their injuries or if there are fatalities. We expect an update from Denver Police any moment. What we do know is that the Colorado Motorcycle Expo was scheduled for this afternoon, near the coliseum. Unclear if this shooting and stabbing occurred at that event or not. We will keep you posted as soon as we know more.

Now to politics. The major story this weekend, scenic Iowa transformed into a political battlefield. In just two days voters will head to carry out their first in the nation responsibility, the Iowa caucuses. That end the candidates are barnstorming the state in a last-minute push to get voters on their side.

We have two duelling rallies set to begin this hour, Hillary Clinton supporters waiting to hear her speak live after news broke that she has picked up endorsement today from "The New York Times" editorial board. On the right, you're looking at Donald Trump earlier today, getting off his plane speaking to a rally there in Dubuque, Iowa.

They are not the only candidates, we expect to hear from this hour, Senator Marco Rubio also holding a rally at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time, and tonight, we are waiting on a major poll to drop from Iowa's flags of newspaper "The Des Moines Register," historically it has been remarkably accurate in taking the temperature of the Iowa voters right before the caucuses.

Let me go straight to Des Moines, Iowa, my friend, my colleague, Brooke Baldwin, live with analysis, ahead of all of these speeches. I don't think the candidates are sleeping one moment there.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I think the candidates, the campaign staffers, this is go time as Monday night is the all important first in the nation caucuses. Poppy, thank you so much. As Hillary Clinton gears up to speak here, really all the closing argument time. Final pitch to voters against of course her biggest rival Bernie Sanders. Let's take a closer look at the former first lady's campaign, joining me to discuss Republican strategist Margaret Hoover and "Daily Beast" editor in chief, John Avlon. Hello, good to see you both.

MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Great to be here.

BALDWIN: Lovely couple on live TV with me. So we just mentioned Hillary Clinton. Let's begin with her. We know that Bill Clinton was out stumping for her in one of the towns here in Iowa. I'm wondering, the Bill Clinton presence, especially interesting recently how he and she have been talking about her faith as we talk about the all important evangelical vote. How do you think she's looking two days out?

[16:05:00]

JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: She is starting to hit her stride, she is not a natural campaigner. Bill Clinton is the natural. While he didn't win Iowa in '92, because Senator Tom Harkin was running, he has a real ability not only galvanize the crowd but there's nobody better as President Obama said, he is a secretary of explaining stuff, he can make economic arguments and policy arguments in a way that really resonate with folks out here and across the country. So he in the most overused cliche about presidential candidate spouses really is a secret weapon. And he helped galvanize the (INAUDIBLE) but she's getting to hit her stride as well.

BALDWIN: I want to pivot -

HOOVER: We're hearing though that it's very, very close. He is not at all of her he campaign events. She had a few events this morning where, of course, Gabby Giffords, was there. (INAUDIBLE) Her daughter, Chelsea, was there, Bill was nowhere to be seen. It's not by any means he is making her closing argument for her in Iowa.

AVLON: But he's been helping. He's out there.

BALDWIN: So I want to switch to the Republican side. I think what fascinates me so much the drum beat coming into Iowa was Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump. Now poof, you watch the debate and Marco Rubio. I mean just being out last night among Iowans people are talking about Marco Rubio. That's obviously a great thing for camp Rubio. We knew that Ted Cruz and his camp, in the last 24 hours, shifting all those negative campaign ads away from Donald Trump. Boom, straight to Marco Rubio. And not only that but his campaign, they are airing this half hour sort of town hall special in this state today and tomorrow, is that unheard of?

HOOVER: Guess who else did that, Brooke Baldwin?

BALDWIN: Who else, Margaret Hoover?

HOOVER: Then Senator Barack Obama. BALDWIN: And how did he do?

HOOVER: And he won Iowa historically. So look, it is a bold move, he is going to blanket the airwaves for 30 minutes. What it does is it gives many Iowans who haven't had the chance to see him, and to be fair, Marco hasn't been here as much as some of the other candidates. So they will have an opportunity to see him for 30 minutes, it is, by the way, a video of him at a town hall in Sioux City, Iowa.

BALDWIN: My (INAUDIBLE) Sanders. Forgive me, I'm balancing, I'm juggling today. I'm talking Marco Rubio but we wanted to make sure we see Senator Sanders. Let me be perfectly transparent to the viewer.

Listen, we're going to show you as much as we possibly can here of all of these different candidates on both sides of the aisle chris crossing the state. And I even don't know where he is but you can see that it's an intimate crowd. This is where Bernie is best, pressing the flesh. We heard him a moment ago asking people please come out Monday night and caucus for me. Continue please.

HOOVER: Look, there's Bernie pounding the pavement. We talked about this a little bit. You almost have a new paradigm and an old paradigm between the democratic caucuses this year and the Republican caucuses this year. What you see Bernie Sanders doing right there on the television is exactly what the Iowa caucuses have been about since 1972 and what they were for the Republicans until just this last year.

Donald Trump has done absolutely none of what you saw Bernie Sanders there doing and what every other candidate campaigning here has done. Instead he has his flybys in Trump Force One.

BALDWIN: If we can pull up a flyby picture. Because I can't get over just this shot. This is the theatrics of Trump. This is what people come out and see.

AVLON: Yes.

HOOVER: People have come out to see it and the eternal question here for Iowans is, are they going to, do they turn out to see him at his events.

BALDWIN: Here you go. Flyby. Wait for it. This is how Trump rolls.

AVLON: I mean, it is just so Hollywood scripted surreal. And the crowd goes wild.

BALDWIN: Iowa. How does that sit with Iowans?

HOOVER: Apparently not badly. Look, he's not spending time in people's living rooms. A lot of candidates thought they could camp out here and win alone on that. The whole secret of Trump and the challenge I think for the conservative movement is that the power of his celebrity plus old fashioned nativist appeal that often go to the ugliest things in Americans politics have really resonated.

HOOVER: Hold on. Let me interrupt here. It's not just nativism that's (INAUDIBLE).

There is also economic - there is an economic populism. So that is a real part of this as well. All of this to say -- you're right, the tables have been turned. There is a new paradigm, there is maybe a new formula for winning even conservative voters for the Republican nomination potentially. We'll know at 5:00 when we see the "Des Moines Register" poll -

BALDWIN: Yes, we will.

HOOVER: Whether the trend line is in favor of Donald Trump. Ann Coulter has been historically correct on this. If she says the trend line is for Trump, that number looks very good for him. Then the question is who gets second and third by how much. We were talking about Marco Rubio. If he can close it to two, three, four points with Cruz where he has been dragging by almost 15, that means Marco Rubio is the surprise win out of Iowa, not Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, particularly.

BALDWIN: Your wife gets the last word here.

AVLON: OK. That's fair. As well she should.

BALDWIN: But we'll be back. We will be right back. Margaret Hoover and John Avlon, thank you so much. Make sure you just keep it right here after all of the campaigning, the debates, decision time on Monday, all comes down to this. The Iowa caucuses are here, we're all over it all day long, all day coverage of the Iowa caucuses only here on CNN.

Again, we are here right in front of the beautiful statehouse that is here in Des Moines, Iowa. Coming up next, we're going to continue talking to Margaret and John.

We have Poppy Harlow, of course, standing by in New York. A quick break. We're back after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:13:18]

HARLOW: All right. More now on our breaking news out of California. That is where all three inmates who escaped from an Orange County jail last week are now back behind bars, two of them were arrested this morning in San Francisco, more than 400 miles from the jail they broke out of in Orange County. The sheriff says the entire state can now breathe a sigh of relief.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SHERIFF SANDRA HUTHENS, ORANGE COUNTY SHERIFF DEPT.: A female citizen approached the officers and pointed out a white van, officers approached the van as Hossein Nayeri fled the area on foot. A short foot pursuit ensued before Nayeri was taken into custody by officers. Officers immediately returned to the white van, and discovered the other escapee, Jonathan Tieu, hiding in the van. (END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: Those escaped men were found this morning as you heard her say, in that van. The third one who fled turned himself in to police yesterday.

Also updating you on the breaking news out of Colorado, a Denver police spokesman telling the "Denver Post" that at least two people were shot and one was stabbed shortly after 1:00 p.m. local time there in Denver, after a reported shooting near the Denver Coliseum, a short time ago.

We are expecting update from police at any moment. We do know that the Colorado Motorcycle Expo is taking place this afternoon near the coliseum, it is unclear, though, if those shootings and the apparent stabbing happened at that event or just in close proximity. We'll bring you the latest when we have it. Again, waiting to hear live from the Denver police.

[16:15:07]

To politics now, Hillary Clinton is in Carroll, Iowa this hour for the second of three campaign appearances that she will make today. Just two days to go before Monday's caucuses, Clinton just a few hours ago picking up the endorsement of "The New York Times'" editorial board, her campaign also revealed a large war chest some $38 million in cash on hand as of the end of 2015.

It's not exactly smooth sailing for Clinton or any of these candidates, that's for sure in the final days before the caucuses. For Clinton, her private e-mail as secretary of state continue to shadow her, the State Department yesterday releasing more than 900 additional Clinton e-mails, however, this is what is getting all of the attention, they withheld 22 of the e-mails because they had retroactively classified as top secret, Clinton said she knew her Republican opponents would use this to attack her but maintains she did nothing wrong.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There is some kind of motivation, it's not going to affect the fundamental facts because they remain the same. There have been as others have pointed out, some constant leak gate but my view on this is, I didn't send or receive any e-mails marked classified.

I take classified information really seriously. And I just think that if the Republicans want to use this for political purposes, that's their decision. But I'm going to keep talking about what the voters in Iowa talked to me about.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: That is Clinton speaking with our Dan Merica (ph) just a few hours ago there in Des Moines. Also we mentioned that "The New York Times" editorial board has thrown its weight today behind Hillary Clinton and John Kasich two days before the Iowa caucuses, the "Times" writing saying that she gives the middle class a quote "real shot at prosperity while keeping the country safe through enhanced international alliances." About Kasich, they wrote, "the only plausible choice for Republicans, Republicans who are tired of extremism and inexperience is John Kasich."

Brooke Baldwin, my friend, my colleague live in Des Moines, Iowa, for us, with the analysis on all of it. The final march.

BALDWIN: The final march is on two days to go. Poppy Harlow, thank you very much.

Hillary Clinton trying to convince Iowans to side with her, not her rival Bernie Sanders and not to be bogged down by this e-mail situation that continues to follow her.

Let me bring back my panel, Republican strategist Margaret Hoover and her husband and "Daily Beast" editor, John Avlon. On Hillary Clinton, listen, the news dropped from the State Department withholding these e-mails yesterday, the timing is not in her favor although this is not something that Bernie Sanders is going to bring up. We're told this is something that Republicans are going to bring up. So in terms of Iowa Monday night, does this shake her at all or is this more about her long game and how she moves past it?

AVLON: This is more about the long game, this is not an issue that is preoccupying democrats. Republicans do see an opening here. And for folks who want to miss it and say there is no there there, the fact this is not a completely settled. Not only with the contents of the 22 e-mails but about ongoing investigations.

The Clintons have a great history of benefiting from opponents who overreach. And that's what happened in the 11-hour Benghazi hearing and there is a danger of that here. This is not simply partisan distraction, this is still ongoing investigation.

BALDWIN: You're shaking your head.

HOOVER: The e-mails have not been subject to overreach by Republicans. In fact, it seems from the polling data that the continued appearance of e-mail scandal has been the thing that has effectively hit her trustworthy numbers among independents, Democrats, and Republicans. So this will continue to be as long as it's an issue before Jim Comey, the head of the FBI decides what to do about this, an issue and a liability for Hillary Clinton as a general election candidate for the presidential nomination.

BALDWIN: Let me move off the e-mails just in terms of Hillary Clinton specifically, and we mentioned the long game, talk about lessons learned from 2008. Then Senator Barack Obama, here you have Senator Bernie Sanders and all of this sort of Sanders surge or whatever you want to call it a slow steady climb. It's tight.

AVLON: It is.

BALDWIN: And I'm just wondering with these additional four debates that she apparently has agreed to, does that help her?

AVLON: Look, I think she's got the substance to be able to handle the debates. What's been fascinating is to see the negotiation around the debates flip entirely. Candidates who have healthy leads feel that more debates offer them more opportunities to make mistakes, they don't want to.

BALDWIN: They don't want them.

AVLON: But then all of a sudden the Hillary camp was asking for more debates and Bernie was the one playing coy. Look, in this context with Iowa, so tight, that's what we know from the polls. It is tight. And it's tight against not a candidate like Barack Obama but like Bernie Sanders, reflects deeper democratic divisions. But if those couple of thousand votes go against Hillary Clinton she is in for a long slog and those debates get crucial. But more debates always generally better for people in the democracy if not the candidates themselves.

[16:20:10]

HOOVER: And it seems as though both camps have wanted more debates. They were just negotiating trying to hammer out where the debates are going to be, how they are going to be. Both sides feel - both sides feel that they would benefit from more debates in the process now. Which is unusual.

Look, anecdotally here in Iowa, I hear democrats saying that are undecided my head is in one place, my heart is in the other place. Frankly, a lot of that hankering out won't happen until caucus night when they are in the room with their friends and neighbors trying to convince which side of the room are you going to go to.

BALDWIN: OK.

AVLON: Do they want to send a message or do they want to send a president. That's going to one of the interesting debates in those very intimate caucuses in Iowa.

BALDWIN: John and Margaret, stay with me. Again as we watch and wait, of course, we mentioned Hillary Clinton a moment ago, coming up, we're also watching and waiting for Donald Trump popping up at another event in Clinton, Iowa. Of course, CNN is there live. Listen, we have crews all across the state, voters trying to decide who they will caucus for come Monday. Stay right here.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:25:00]

HARLOW: I want to update you on that breaking news we've been telling you about out of Colorado. Denver police saying on twitter just now one person has been killed, several others have been wounded in a shooting and a stabbing incident that took place near the Denver Coliseum this afternoon. It's important to note that Denver Police saying they are not considering this a mass casualty event. We know that the Colorado Motorcycle Expo is taking place near the coliseum. Unclear if this happened there or close by. We'll keep you posted as we learn more.

To politics now.

Republican front-runner Donald Trump about to speak shortly in Clinton, Iowa. Today he is courting the critical evangelical voters who can make or break a candidate in the state of Iowa. He released this video on Facebook today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My mother gave me this bible, this very bible. Many years ago. In fact, it's her writing right here. She wrote the name and my address, and it's just very special to me. And again, I want to thank the evangelicals. I will never let you down.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: Donald Trump courting that evangelical vote hard in the final sprint. CNN national political reporter Maeve Reston in Iowa waiting for Trump. How is he resonating with evangelicals? I mean we know Cruz polls better with the evangelicals but he is certainly stepping up his game on that front now.

MAEVE RESTON, CNN NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: Well, he is, and the most fascinating thing about this race, Poppy, has been that Donald Trump actuallu has see-sawed back and forth among evangelicals with Ted Cruz. A lot of people didn't expect that from someone who has been married three times, who had positions on abortion in the past that bothered a lot of evangelical voters but talking to them over the last couple days here in Iowa, a lot of them say they are making a decision between their head and their heart.

They feel that Cruz is a committed conservative, but that Donald Trump may be the stronger nominee for the Republicans this year, and the stronger commander in chief. And so it's been really fascinating to watch Donald Trump try to talk more about his faith, obviously he has mixed results if you think about the 2 Corinthians slipup a couple of weeks ago.

He is trying to reach out to those voters. They are incredibly important, they are a reliable block on Monday night. We'll have to see if Ted Cruz' organization can pull off a win. They are out there door knocking, making phone calls. They had Glenn Beck at Ted Cruz's headquarters this morning in Urbandale. Those people say they are really pumped and they are out there talking about Cruz's positions and Donald Trump's inconsistency on abortion over the last decade or so.

HARLOW: Well, it's interesting you bring that up because we heard Brianna Keilar asking Trump in her interview with him this week about did you duck out of the Fox debate because you didn't want to talk about your position on late-term abortions. He said no, it's not that. Then he got the endorsement this week of Jerry Falwell Jr., right, the head of Liberty University, a huge evangelical. How much does that endorsement for Trump hurt Cruz?

RESTON: That was a big blow to Cruz. And I think that at first we didn't realize the magnitude of it. In the eyes of a lot of evangelicals here that did give him some credibility. Of course he had pro choice positions on abortion, back in the 90s, he talked about it on camera with Tim Russert on "Meet the Press." But that endorsement really helped put a lot of fears to rest. Donald Trump has said he is pro life now, that he is not going to let down evangelicals as you heard on that video. So, it's really a matter of trust in these final days for these voters whether they feel that they can trust him at this point or if they can go with someone like Cruz who can - who has been consistent all the way along.

HARLOW: All right. If this election so far has been anything it's been anything but predictable. We'll see. Maeve Reston, thank you so much. We're going to take a quick break. Back live in Iowa, much more ahead. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:32:09] BALDWIN: All right. We're back here in Des Moines in Iowa. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

Live pictures here. Listen, these candidates are not wasting any time. It is crucial final days ahead of Monday's caucuses.

You have on the left side of the screen. Donald Trump will be appearing there in Clinton, Iowa. Crowds amassing there as they are as well in Carroll, Iowa, we're watching and waiting to see Hillary Clinton.

Also Marco Rubio set to begin a rally here in the Hawkeye. The Florida senator may be gathering momentum after his debate performance Thursday. Rival Ted Cruz is targeting recent negative ads at Rubio now, not Donald Trump.

Let's begin discussing with my political panel who've been gracious enough to stick around and hang with me here in Des Moines, Margaret Hoover and John Avlon.

Beginning with that, the fact that Ted Cruz who has been so back and forth with Donald Trump is now his campaign has said in the last 24 hours, hang on a second, we want to take all of these ads, and focus them on Marco Rubio, which obviously is a compliment to Rubio, they see him as a true formidable foe, especially given what we saw on that debate stage Thursday night.

AVLON: That's a tell. That's a tell that the underlying dynamics changed and Cruz is trying to keep Rubio's numbers down of it they no longer see themselves necessarily as being able to leap frog into the first place against Donald Trump. So, that's not a sign of confidence from the Cruz campaign. All their efforts are going to ground game but if the money is moving, you know where they're attaching this. BALDWIN: We mow that Marco Rubio is hosting this 30-minute event. I

believe there is a hashtag, #heymarco. I mean, people can interact with him which is another way I know the Rubio camp, Margaret, has said, you know, listen, you turn on the TV and the airwaves are saturated with ads. This is sort of a unique way for Rubio to hopefully communicate to caucus-goers. Live pictures at the Rubio event, by the way.

HOOVER: And he is able to make his closing argument on his own terms rather than fighting for airtime during the debate and after the debate, which everybody did give their closing argument except Donald Trump who is doing it his own way as he has this entire campaign. But this is Marco's way of doing it unadulterated, 30 minutes speaking to Iowans.

So, you know, look, it remains to be seen if it will be successful. But it was successful for Barack Obama in 2008.

BALDWIN: But it wasn't successful for Senator Santorum and Governor Huckabee. I mean, they won Iowa and that was that. So, why is this relevant on the Republican side? I'm just asking because a lot of people are asking.

HOOVER: Why Iowa is relevant? Iowa is relevant --

BALDWIN: To Republicans.

HOOVER: Well, it is going to be incredibly important, Trump looks like is going to win but there is a media narrative that comes out of Iowa that comes out of Iowa that is almost more important than who wins and the proof point of that is 2012 because Mitt Romney was deemed the winner, and he had the media narrative going in to New Hampshire and he won New Hampshire.

But it turned out seven days later, they found out that actually by 7 points, 9 votes, Rick Santorum had won.

[16:35:02] It didn't matter at that point because the media narrative had gotten away from it. It was as though Mitt Romney had won the first two and he was the inevitable candidate.

BALDWIN: Jump in, John.

AVLON: Look, I say that you know, whatever the conventional wisdom, even the crucial poll we're seeing tonight which is usually accurate.

BALDWIN: From "The Des Moines Register."

AVLON: "The Des Moines Register". It doesn't matter until people actually vote. And that's why the ground game matters so much.

But it is about Iowans taking this responsibility. We're talking about a relatively small number of people in a relatively small state where independents actually outnumber the two parties. But the folks who show up and do their duty, which they take seriously -- BALDWIN: On that, on that, the question being for example Donald

Trump, and the question being, have all of these fans, will that translate a into caucus-goers. The same, we see the millennials with Bernie Sanders.

AVLON: This is the fascinating important point. The parties have spent a year here campaigning putting in money. They have gotten nothing, in terms of new voter registration.

BALDWIN: That's incredible. Say that again.

AVLON: The two parties voter registration have flat lined essentially over the last year despite all of the money, all the attention. And there are more independents than Democrats or Republicans. So, that speaks to enthusiasm, are the parties alienating more than they attract. If the Trump and Bernie are betting on huge numbers of people who never have shown up before, there is not evidence of new registration to back that claim up.

BALDWIN: That is what we'll be watching for Monday night to see if those people get out especially if they get out amid a potential snowstorm. We talk about October surprises, this is like the caucus surprise.

We're back with more from the candidates in Iowa as we count down the start of the caucuses live. Special coverage back after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:40:22] HARLOW: All right. Updating you on our breaking news out of Colorado, where that multiple shooting event occurred this afternoon. Denver police say they have no suspect in custody. This is after multiple people were shot. There was also a stabbing incident.

This all took place near the Denver coliseum. One person killed, several wounded. Nine transported to the hospital, we're told police said they are not considering this a mass casualty event -- again, not considering this a mass casualty incident. We'll keep you posted as we learn more.

I want to get straight to my friend Brooke Baldwin live in Iowa, more on politics. And before I do, you are looking at eager, eager voters awaiting -- you see Jeb Bush coming in at one of the events on the top of the screen. Also event for Marco Rubio, on the bottom there, you see Hillary Clinton event, all four of these dueling rallies taking place as we speak in Iowa -- Brooke.

BALDWIN: Keep the four-box up so you can see. I mean, listen, this is what is happening across the state of Iowa. These are the closing arguments from these different candidates, getting folks out to caucus here in Iowa Monday night.

As Margaret was just talking about, so much of this is about the momentum, the media narrative, depending who hits that one, number two and number three spot Monday night on the Republican side and, of course, much different on the Democratic side as well. So keeping an eye on these candidates.

I have John Avlon and Margaret Hoover sitting next to me here as we've been talking so much about we chatted about Marco Rubio. I want to move on to Donald Trump.

And you say, your wife, I watched you recoil kindly as your wife said obviously sort of Trump's winning for the number two spot presumably between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. You recoiled, I thought, the viewers didn't, I wanted to follow up with you because you're saying what, it's not a fait accompli?

AVLON: It's not a done deal. Voting doesn't start until tomorrow. Polling is enormously predictive and Margaret may well be right. Until the voters get their say to announce that it's a done deal based on polling and momentum I think does the real work of democracy a disservice. The people of Iowa take that seriously.

But, you know, Trump's success defies every bit of logic the conservative moment has held so close.

BALDWIN: Talk about that.

AVLON: And what they need to confront out of this is maybe it wasn't about ideas at all, for the vast majority of voters at the base, that Trump's celebrity plus the resonance of a successful businessman, that reputation.

BALDWIN: His strength, the bravado.

(CROSSTALK)

AVLON: Maybe talking about someone who is going to take control, knows about the economy and that crucial bit of celebrity as an added which creates high name ID because this is not a candidate who is campaigning on the ideas of the conservative movement, and yet he is succeeding with conservatives across the board. That is an existential crisis they have to examine now, because their coalition is cracking up.

BALDWIN: How do you feel about the existential crisis?

HOOVER: You know, for some of us think that the conservative movement needed to sort of rethink itself and modernize itself. It's disappointing it takes a disrupter like Donald Trump who frankly doesn't stand for the things Republicans have stood for traditionally.

If Donald Trump is in a pipe dream, not before the voters voted, but the Republican nominee, he will for -- against everything that Paul Ryan who is the third in line to the presidency, again, Paul Ryan is pro-free trade, Donald Trump is anti-trade. Paul Ryan is in favor of some sort of immigration solution, Donald Trump is for throwing everybody here unauthorized out.

BALDWIN: Why haven't those other Republicans coalesced behind one candidate? HOOVER: Because there are 16, 14, 13 people in the field now. And it

looks like that winnowing process may be happening right in front of us right here in Iowa between Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio. It seems as though Marco Rubio, if he is in the third place, could be the candidate that can thread the needle, and might become that person going to New Hampshire, depending on his performance here -- which is why Iowa is so critical.

AVLON: This is such a media narrative about backing Marco. He had a good last couple of days that he seems to have doubled down. But Christie has been surging in New Hampshire, got "The Union Leader" endorsement. John Kasich got "the New York Times" endorsement. Not persuasive --

HOOVER: Neither of them is above 5 percent, John. That is not representing it.

AVLON: The fight to center right is really key to the future of the party. The point Margaret made, there is such a gap between the governing constituency in the Republican Party and those who are simply content to grand-stand.

Let's be real about it, Ted Cruz is part of the grandstanding coalition just as much as Donald Trump.

(CROSSTALK)

HOOVER: Not to -- John, as a Republican who has been labeled establishment that pejorative establishment, right?

[16:45:01] I like John Kasich, I like Chris Christie, I like Jeb Bush, they would all be imminently responsible presidents. I want to be able to vote for them.

But they are -- none of them are above 3 percent, 4 percent, 5 percent in these primary states. The only one who has emerged that fits that category is Marco Rubio.

BALDWIN: We're watching. I know people say polls don't matter. But I know people are watching very carefully for this final sort of "Des Moines Register" poll which will be out in a little while.

We see in this final closing stretch how these candidates are stacking up against one another. You see them, they are out and about. They're crisscrossing the state, they get it. This is go time.

More from Iowa after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: We're back here live in Des Moines, Iowa. Fresh off a strong performance at this week's Trump-free debate. Jeb Bush is among the candidates making a swing through Iowa today.

In fact, let's show you live pictures. This is Jeb Bush rally to begin at the top of the hour. Cedar Falls, Iowa. Recent polls you can see on the left side not kind all the way down at the bottom, you have Jeb Bush sitting at 4 percent here in the Hawkeye State.

Monday's caucuses could set the tone for the rest of the season as we move forward.

[16:50:00] On the Democratic side, a loss could be a lot more damaging to Hillary Clinton, than Bernie Sanders. On the Republican side, a win in Iowa for any one other than Donald Trump could potentially reshuffle the deck.

I have with me, Republican strategist Margaret Hoover, and "Daily Beast" editor in chief, John Avlon.

So, let's start with Jeb Bush. This is a name I feel hasn't come out of my mouth in a minute. We're focused on Trump, Cruz, Rubio. But it's important to talk about Jeb Bush.

This is the candidate that so many of the establishment Republicans really were hoping would resonate. You saw his poll numbers. He did well Thursday night.

He's in a little momentum today.

AVLON: Yes. Look, I mean, he did have a strong debate. He's had a strong couple of debates. He's tried to run a civil substantive campaign, although they've definitely degenerated and they're throwing a lot of money at his one-time mentee Marco Rubio.

But there's just that failure to convert, whether it's Bush fatigue, whether it's about the candidates. And the one x-factor is the cash they still got in the bank, and does that sustain a campaign to Super Tuesday even if he doesn't --

BALDWIN: That's the question.

HOOVER: Well, let's be clear what cash that is. It's not clear, you have hard dollars and soft dollars. There's the super PAC and the PAC money. The candidate himself may not have that many resources on hand.

It looks like the Jeb campaign used most of their resources getting to this point. But the super PAC has enormous resources, maybe as much as $40 million. Does that justify Jeb staying in the race and continuing --

BALDWIN: What is the threshold if he gets through Iowa, stays in it through New Hampshire, does he stay through South Carolina and then say --

HOOVER: If he is continuing to poll, 3 percent, 4 percent, 5 percent, coming in fourth, fifth and sixth, there is a hard justification to stay in the race. But it seems as though through what we can tell is that Jeb has been quite frazzled by the fact that Marco has done so well. They have spent so much of that soft dollar money focused on diminishing Marco Rubio.

AVLON: But we have spent 12 months focusing on the field. They've been making their case. Now, the first caucuses are about to begin and it is lightning bolt for weeks until the first March 1st Super Tuesday. So candidates who have the money can stay in.

At that point, you know, if you've gotten no wins on the board you should get out. You want to follow the truth in politics. After all of this is done, you follow the money and the reality is whatever positive or negative damage is done to the Republican process campaign, the consultants always cash out. They are going to be the winners no matter what happens. That's the story of a lot of these big campaigns.

BALDWIN: What about also, I'm thinking of Chris Christie, I was reading that the governor here, Governor Branstad, will actually be introducing him at an event here in Iowa tomorrow night.

AVLON: A big help.

BALDWIN: Which is a big deal. He hasn't spent as much time in Iowa, his priority of course given geography and where he is from, his people, he spent a lot of time in New Hampshire. The fact that the governor is introducing him tomorrow night, what's the best case scenario for a Chris Christie moving into Monday?

HOOVER: I think Chris Christie, if he has -- look, my sense is if he thinks he has a strong fourth and can go into New Hampshire with some wind at his sails --

BALDWIN: Marco Rubio, forgive, looking out of the corner of my eye. Marco Rubio here in Ames, Iowa, waving to the crowd.

HOOVER: I heard from folks in Iowa City at an event with Chris Christie that he was on fire, talking about the e-mails, that he was really sprinting to the finish, having a very strong finish. If he can take some kind of momentum with him into New Hampshire, then there's an argument for Chris Christie.

AVLON: Look, the fight for the center right is where a lot of the action is. Question is what's left of the center right and Terri Branstad, the nation's longest serving governor in history in Iowa, which is extraordinary, does represent the center right here.

While they have not endorsed notably attacked Ted Cruz, but that fight for the center right is where a lot of the action is. And some extent, the future of the Republican Party may depend on who wins that fight.

BALDWIN: Looking at Marco Rubio I'm reminded of the evangelical vote. We know that, and I think this is something that doesn't get a lot of pickup with media but, you know, faith. This is something he does bring up quite a lot. This is something he was asked about at the debate Thursday night, you know, as far as being on the cover of "Time" and the savior line and Jesus Christ is my savior, how he pivoted, he brought up his faith multiple times there.

It seemed to me that he was trying to steal those voters on that stage, the evangelical voters from Ted Cruz. HOOVER: And Donald Trump who apparently as we know has an

advertisement out now holding the bible his mother gave him saying, "I will not let you do you know evangelicals".

AVLON: The least likely evangelical however, but he has gotten some important bona fides from that community, and it does speak to how monolithic that community is right now. You know, there is large evangelical community in Iowa, but if you look at social issues, they are not at the top tier of concerns. So, how will it translate?

But, you know, Republican candidates, you know, talking about their faith publicly in the hope that will convert to votes, this is a very old play.

HOOVER: Which is to say it's not a monolithic -- you said it's monolithic. It is not monolithic at all.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Husband and wife.

AVLON: Disagree.

BALDWIN: This is why we love you.

[16:55:00] Margaret Hoover and John Avlon, thank you for being with me this entire hour here on CNN. So much fun.

Coming up next here, we have many more live events. We're just rolling through. We're juggling all of this for you. It's so important to hear from all of the candidates on the right and the left.

We also have, of course, Poppy Harlow, her interview with the Michigan governor this week, Rick Snyder. It was excellent on the Flint water crisis. She traveled to Michigan, she sat with him. We have that.

Stay with me. You're watching CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HARLOW: Top of the hour. I'm Poppy Harlow in New York.

We are following two breaking stories this afternoon. Multiple shootings in Colorado and the arrest of the three California prison escapees.

First to Colorado, where Denver police say one person is dead after shots were fired at a motorcycle expo right near the Denver coliseum.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAQUEL LOPEZ, DENVER POLICE SPOKESMAN: During the event, there were shots fired and at least one stabbing. We do have one deceased party and multiple other victims. At this time, we do not have anyone in custody. (END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: Several people we do know have been taken to the hospital. The police spokesperson did not know the extent of injuries or whether they had been shot or stabbed. The local hospital reported taking in nine victims, and officials saying despite the shootings, the motorcycle expo is still under way. Again, the suspect not apprehended at this hour.

To California now, where all three inmates who escaped from an Orange County jail last week are now back behind bars, two of them were arrested this morning in San Francisco.