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New Hampshire Up Next for Presidential Candidates; Clinton, Trump on the Campaign Trail Tonight. Aired 10-11p ET

Aired February 2, 2016 - 22:00   ET


[22:00:00] DON LEMON, CNN HOST: It is your turn, New Hampshire. And the candidates are out in force.

This is CNN Tonight. I am Don Lemon.

So, much for conventional wisdom in Iowa. Cruz win.


SEN. TED CRUZ, (R-TX) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Every pundit said there's no way Cruz can win. Can't happen. It's impossible. The race is done.


LEMON: Donald Trump, second.


DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We had a very good result yesterday. Could have been a little bit better.


LEMON: Marco Rubio surges.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO, (R-FL) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If I'm our nominee, we are going to beat Hillary Clinton and it won't be by the flip of a coin. I promise you that.



LEMON: Hillary Clinton, win.


HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I feel really great being back in New Hampshire after winning in Iowa and having a chance to come here.



LEMON: But Bernie Sanders gives her a run for her money.


SEN. BERNIE SANDERS, (I-VT) DEMOCRATIC. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The political revolution continues next Tuesday here in New Hampshire.



LEMON: So, as you can very well see from all of that, it's a very night tonight. So, let's discuss with CNN's Dana Bash live for us in New Hampshire. I mean, Dana, my goodness, you're everywhere. Iowa barely was over and now everybody's in New Hampshire. It really -- it's...


DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm glad that you told me I was in New Hampshire because I'm not sure I actually would have been able to say that to you. I'm not sure where I am.

LEMON: I know you're exhausted but you did a great job and you're doing a great job. Listen, you're not unfamiliar with New Hampshire, you've been covering this, you know, for all day and you've been covering this for a while. What's happening on the ground?

BASH: I have to tell you that what I witnessed tonight and that was in Exeter New Hampshire, it was a Marco Rubio rally, it was exactly why in this complicated process of electing nominees for president people like to do well in Iowa and not just that, do better than expected.

So much of this is a psychological game, a psychological situation where you want to kind of project the allure of a winner. And that is really what happened just of course anecdotally what I saw in Exeter.

There were a lot of people there who showed up who never would have shown up for a Marco Rubio rally, who are considering others in his sort of mainstream lane, John Kasich, Chris Christie, for example, but they wanted to come and see him because they say that they like his style and they are taking a second look after Iowa.

Now, if you're Donald Trump, who is still in a double-digit, a double- digit lead here in New Hampshire, he said, wait a minute, why is Marco Rubio getting all this buzz? Listen to him here today.


TRUMP: One poll came out that said I was leading by four or five points. So, I guess coming in second -- the headlines were "Trump comes in second," "he's humiliated." There were 17 people when we started, now you have 11. I come in second. I'm not humiliated.


BASH: Now he does have a point, Don. He didn't come from nowhere. If anybody would have told any of us that Donald Trump would have come in second in Iowa caucuses, the place that historically has tried in true conservative towards Evangelicals who we wouldn't even take a second look at somebody who would a few years ago was for abortion rights.

So, we would have told him that your -- that they were nuts. So, he does have a point there. We'll see if he can maintain that sort of aura of being a winner, especially here in New Hampshire where there's so much buzz around other candidates right now.

LEMON: Right. I mean, in second. New Hampshire is a lot different from Iowa. So, talk about the difference...

BASH: Very.

LEMON: ... and which candidate does it help?

BASH: Well, it's a very different electorate for Ted Cruz, for example. Yesterday, when he won Iowa, he did so largely with conservative voters. Again, as I was talking about before, the traditional conservative voters in Iowa but that's very different from here.

The moderate vote in Iowa, it's only about 15 percent. And he only got 9 percent of that. It's much, much bigger here in New Hampshire. And just again, anecdotally, talking to so many people who were at a Marco Rubio rally tonight, they said that they would never even consider voting for Ted Cruz because they want somebody who is going to go to Washington and make deals.

That is the opposite of the appeal that Ted Cruz has with the more conservative electorate that is maybe more in South Carolina and elsewhere but maybe not as much here in New Hampshire.

LEMON: All right, Dana Bas. By the way, you are in New Hampshire, in Manchester, so stay there. Because I want to bring, just wait for a moment, I'm going to bring in a man who might have a crystal ball, the best crystal ball in this business and that's Hugh Hewitt.

Oh, my gosh. So, it pains me to say this, Hugh Hewitt but I have to give credit -- well, I'm just kidding. I have to give credit to where the credit is due you called it. Here's your prediction on Sunday State of the Union. Listen to this.


[22:05:05] HUGH HEWITT, RADIO HUGH HEWITT SHOW HOST: Ted wins the republicans, Donald comes in second but Marco Rubio is a very close third.


LEMON: OK. So, the polls had, you know, Trump in the lead. Why didn't he win? Why were you right? HEWITT: I think I was right because of Jeb, Josh and John, those were

the three operatives, Jeff Row, Josh Perry, and John Drogin who works for Ted Cruz and who basically owned the internet and owned Iowa.

I told Donald Trump two weeks ago, I thought Ted Cruz was going to win Iowa and Trump will win New Hampshire and not even close. He has Corey, his campaign manager who runs Americans for Prosperity up there. But here's the other thing and not many people are talking about this. I think I head Dana mentioned this last night.

A 180,000 republicans showed up, which broke every turnout model, it's a 50 percent increase over 2012.

BASH: That's right.

HEWITT: And 250,000 republicans voted in New Hampshire in 2012, but they have a 50 percent increase so that they get up to 325, that's got to help Donald. So, I think all the pollsters, I'm giving them a pass. I got lucky because I kind of study the metrics on the social media side and knew about the trio of J's.

But in this case the 180,000 people is extraordinary. I'm sure Dana will confirm, no one had that on their marker and I didn't predict that.

LEMON: Does that -- does it hurt him at all in New Hampshire that he didn't do so well in Iowa?

HEWITT: I don't think so. I don't think Trump voted for moving. Ted Cruz got more people out. He did not convert Trump people. He got his people out. He identified them over the course of a year and a half, it's an extraordinary team of specialists who work the internet like nobody else.

He delivered them, me messaged them. There was the Carson controversy for which Ted Cruz apologized but I don't think it was decisive in any significant way. Marco Rubio did a more traditional air war and that might help him in New Hampshire.

But I also say, I'll be interested what you two think. I think there's a fourth seat at this table going forward. One of those governors, whether it's Kasich or Christie or Bush is going to play themselves into the round of March 15th.

The three who did well in Iowa last night and Donald Trump is right. He did very well. Ted Cruz won but Trump and Rubio did well. They're going to go all the way to March 15th to the winner takes all. And I think there will be one more and I'm still the only open convention man out there. I don't think we're going to have a nominee by Cleveland.

LEMON: Oh, my gosh. Dana, do you agree with that, do you think there's room at the table for a fourth?

BASH: Can we get a good night's sleep before Cleveland? If you say yes, then I'm all for it. Yes. Sure. There is of course room for it. I'm not so sure, Hugh, if there -- if you're going to see all of the governors that you're talking about, Kasich, Christie, and Jeb go on to March 15th. It is possible.

But if you're just talking about Kasich and Christie, they're basically residents of New Hampshire right now. All of their eggs are in this basket. They don't have much of an operation beyond this. Their hope is if they do really well here, then the money will -- sort of if you build it, it will come.

But Jeb Bush is different. He has historically had more money. It is hard to see him not going in -- it's hard to see him leaving before South Carolina at least, which is in February, not March. But, you know, this is going to be a real, real test.

Again, back to the beginning, of whether or not Marco Rubio's momentum coming out of Iowa is going to propel him. Because another phenomenon that I have been just feeling here on the ground in the last, you know, what, 24 hours is -- or 12 hours I should say, is that people want to have a winner and they want to pick a winner. And voters tonight said that to me point black over and over again. They like Christie...


LEMON: And they think Rubio is the one -- they think Rubio is the one who can win?

BASH: Well, they like Christie, they like Kasich but they just -- they just don't think he can win, so Rubio is their -- is their sort of backup.

LEMON: Can I ask you about this because I think -- I think Hugh Hewitt has said this. And he didn't -- he said, you know, I think you said at this point a couple months ago you said, Hugh, don't trust the polling, the polling isn't quite accurate.

So, Dana, I want to ask you. Trump said he has a huge -- he has a huge lead in New Hampshire. That's according to CNN polls, 31 percent, Cruz is 13, Rubio is 11 percent, Bush 8, and Christie 7. I mean, could that polling be wrong the way that the Iowa polling was wrong?

BASH: Sure. It could be. And it also could change dramatically after the results in Iowa for two reasons. Not just because Rubio seems to be ascendant but because the whole charm of Donald Trump are one of the things that really draws people to him is the fact that he says over and over again that he's a winner.

Well, he came in second place and again, as we said, that is not an easy feat for someone like Donald Trump in a state like Iowa, but he's not the winner and wasn't the winner. So, that a little bit of the bloom is off the rose there. He still appeals very much as somebody who is self-funded, who has never been a politician, who can do things differently.

[22:10:07] But I think that, you know, when we're looking at polling, we have to always remember all of the outside factors that might not be felt and captured in these polls.

LEMON: OK. Hugh, what do you think? Do you think the polling could be wrong in New Hampshire?

HEWITT: Completely. The turnout model is if we continue to maintain a 50 percent surge in turnout, then every polling model that has been used to date is wrong. And this isn't a new phenomenon.

Matt Bevin was supposed to lose in Kentucky by 4, he won by 9 in November. The Israeli conservatives, the (Inaudible) was supposed to lose, they won. The British conservatives supposed to lose, they won. In 2014, Tom Cotton was allegedly tied with Mark Pryor, beating by 17 points, Mitch McConnell was allegedly tied, he won by 17 points.

It's not that they're trying to get it wrong, it's just that the science, it's an art. No one answers the phones anymore. And I will go back to this idea that people do not shift very easily once they've made up their mind but in New Hampshire there is a tradition of not making up your mind. And so...


BASH: That's so true.

HEWITT: .. in South Carolina is going to be a lot easier to predict. I just think that we're going to get there with four, maybe five people -- and I have one other thing, the three guys who won last night all have money. Ted Cruz has deep pocketed money, Marco Rubio has deep pocketed money, Donald Trump has his own money.

Chris Christie has at least a couple of people who will fund him through March 15th.


HEWITT: Jeb Bush has got at least 30 to $50 million left in his super PAC. It's John Kasich, who really my governor, I'm an Ohioan, he really needs New Hampshire more than the other guys. He needs to come in fourth or better...

LEMON: All right.

HEWITT: ... and I think it's got to go.

LEMON: All right. That's got to be the final thought. Thank you. I appreciate it, Dana and High.

When we come right back, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on the campaign trail tonight. Why she won in Iowa, why he didn't and what it all means in New Hampshire.

Plus, we're counting down to the democratic town hall tomorrow night, 9 Eastern, right here on CNN.

[22:15:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK) LEMON: Lots of I guess we can call them surprises in Iowa. But what it all mean as a battleground moves to New Hampshire now. One thing we've all learned about this campaign is expect the unexpected.

So, joining me now to discuss that is the New York Times Frank Bruni. Good to see you, sir.


LEMON: So, there were a ton of polls that were going on, you know, into Iowa. What happened? What went wrong?

BRUNI: Well, I mean, polls are often wrong. And we've seen them being wrong more often lately for other reason. Your last -- your last segment gets to talk about. You know, we knew from the beginning that we didn't know in particular how accurate polls would be when it came to Donald Trump.

I mean, that was a big question mark that hung over all of this. Would the people who said they were in favor of him, were they the kind of voters that were going to show up. And it turned out some of them weren't, it turned out some of them changed their minds at the last minute and went with Marco Rubio instead. So, all of that made the reality different from what the polls are...


LEMON: So, it may not -- they're not real battle tested people who were in this polling. I have to give that...


BRUNI: Not only that but you do need to get your voters out.

LEMON: Right.

BRUNI: People do a poll and the respondents say I want to vote for this person. They need nudges, they need reminders. Ted Cruz's operation had a phenomenal ground game.

LEMON: Ground game, right.

BRUNI: Marco Rubio's operation had a very serious one. Donald Trump had no ground game.

LEMON: Yes. So, I gave Hugh Hewitt his credit, I have to give you credit. Because we talked about these three weeks ago when you wrote this column, it's January 16th. You discussed the polling in Iowa and you said this. You said "Neither his image -- and you're talking about Donald trump -- nor his ego leaves any room for a setback, any allowance for second place. And as Iowa draws near and several polls suggest that strong possibility that Ted Cruz will finish ahead of him there. It's time to talk about what that would mean for a self- enamored emperor who pretty much insists on his own perfection and has built his brand on it." So, now? BRUNI: So, the last 24 hours had been very interesting. We saw Donald Trump flee Twitter for what was it, 12 or 16 hours. He obviously didn't know how to react for precisely this reason.

If Donald Trump had won Iowa, think about how he would be talking about the people who finished second and third. He would not be standing up there as he is now saying second place is really good.

Dana mentioned this. He's right. In certain ways it's phenomenal that he finish in Iowa. But it contradicts his entire brand, it undercuts his entire argument.

LEMON: But some people -- Bob Beckel said, "there is no second place in Iowa, Don." "There is no second place in New Hampshire. Either you wn or you don't." No, you don't believe that?

BRUNI: That's not true. I mean, I think Marco Rubio won last night by coming in third.

LEMON: Right.

BRUNI: Because it was such a close third. It was third in a state that is much more tailor-made, that it was much tailor-made for Ted Cruz, and it finally gave him some numbers to support the long-held contention that he might be the one to watch.

LEMON: So, speaking of Marco Rubio because it's been sort of an unconventional campaign, I would say especially for Donald Trump, and maybe Ted Cruz. But I think the conventional wisdom is that Marco Rubio run a pretty conventional sort of campaign and that showed. So, that tells you something about Iowa, correct?

BRUNI: Yes. I mean, a lot of things weren't as unusual as we thought they would be.

LEMON: Right.

BRUNI: And I think we need to also mention that on the democratic side -- I think, you know, it's funny that everyone is talking about the republican side more because there are so many more candidates and some of personalities are so large. But I think in some ways, the biggest surprise with the night was on the democratic side.

LEMON: Let's talk about your column today, you said "while Trump may have fallen short, Bernie Sanders far exceeded expectations." This is what you write in your latest column. You said this about Hillary Clinton, you said, "she should have trounced Sanders, yes, he communicates authentically, authenticity I should say, to an electorate ravenous for if and has given potent voice to Americans' economic angst. But little in his Senate careers suggest that he'd be able to turn that that oratory into remedy."

So, he certainly gave Clinton the run for money. But how far do you think Bernie Sanders can actually go?

BRUNI: You know, I think at the end of the day she still wins the nomination. I think there are states coming up, South Carolina and Nevada, you know, pretty soon and they're very good examples for the electorate is much different than it was in Iowa or will be in New Hampshire and it's much more favorable to her.

I don't think the story of Iowa is that Hillary's nomination is in danger. I think the story of Iowa is that Hillary has serious flaws as a candidate and she's going to go into the general election with a big question mark over her.

If the republicans nominate someone strong, we've seen that Hillary Clinton is somewhat weak and it could be a real contest.

[22:20:00] LEMON: Yes. But people remember her, you know, in New Hampshire and in Iowa and she has friends there, right, she has as they call battle tested or poll tested people. So, elections are about the future. But somewhat about the past when it comes to Hillary Clinton because voters are remembering her from the past.

BRUNI: Yes. And she has a great argument, which is who in this field of candidates on either side of the aisle has the kind of depth and breadth of experience that he has, as we wrote in editorial last weekend.


LEMON: All that is true though, right?

I mean, she has that first lady, Secretary and State -- yes, and all of that counts for a lot. You know, it means that she knows what she's talking about, it means she knows the trend she wouldn't have. But she has yet to articulate a message that is hopeful and inspiring and forward looking enough to voters for them to have a sort of emotion about her candidacy that matches the rationale for it.

LEMON: How did you put in your -- I think you said something about her being eared or rooted, do you like, she wears it -- she hasn't learned to where that it rooted you like...


BRUNI: Well, she, you know, I've talked to her and her knowledge of policy is phenomenal. But as she kind of goes through it...


LEMON: She gets through east.

BRUNI: ... you travel an arc from being impressed to being exhausted. She, to her credit, she's phenomenal well-informed but she's never learned as I wrote to where that eerie you just likely, which is how voters like it be worn.

LEMON: She, but when her back is against the wall, I mean, she comes out swinging usually. I mean, that...

(CROSSTALK) BRUNI: She's a formidable person.


BRUNI: And that may help in New Hampshire. New Hampshire though, is so favorable to Sanders. And what voters need to remember is if Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire even by a lot after kind of tying Clinton in Iowa, it doesn't mean the nomination is his because all the states to come are much more hospitable to her than the state than those first two states.

LEMON: It's interesting to try to get people understand when people ask me as I'm, you know, going around. Iowa, why do people put so much stock in Iowa, it doesn't even reflect the population of the country and it's only what, one, you know, 1 percent of the electoral votes.

BRUNI: yes. And they are absolutely correct. But it is the first crucible of the candidate center.

LEMON: Right.

BRUNI: It's the first testing ground and regardless of the state's peculiarities there are -- there is the phenomenon and politics of momentum.


BRUNI: Momentum always matters. And to that extent, Iowa does matter.

LEMON: As we saw the people who put their candidacies on hold, because they didn't do well in Iowa. So sure..


BRUNI: Exactly.

LEMON: Thank you, Frank Bruni. I appreciate it.

When we come right back, anybody who has been on the campaign trail can tell you New Hampshire is not Iowa. So, next I'm going to talk to a couple of old hands to know the state better than most and you may be surprised to hear what they have to say.


LEMON: Next week's New Hampshire primary could make or break some republicans. I want you to listen to the advice that Ted Cruz has for New Hampshire voters.


CRUZ: You understand there are millions of Americans who are counting on each and every one of you to vet the candidates, not to listen to the empty talk, not to listen to the campaign promises but instead to look us in the eye and determine who's telling the truth and who's blowing smoke. (END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: All right. Let's discuss now with Jennifer Horn, she is the chairwoman of the New Hampshire Republican Party. Good evening. How are you?

JENNIFER HORN, NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUBLICAN PARTY CHAIRWOMAN: I'm doing great. It's an exciting time to be in New Hampshire, that's for sure.

LEMON:I know. I'm sure you're ready for all of this. So, you know, we know what happened in Iowa last night. So, what do you think the impact of those results will be on your primary one week from today?

HORN: Well, you know, there's no question that everybody in New Hampshire was watching what was unfolding in Iowa last night. Those folks who did well, certainly Senator Cruz earned that win yesterday and he comes in here with the win that is back.

Senator Rubio outperformed everyone's expectations, everyone is going to be giving him a second look as he comes in. But the truth is, Don, here in New Hampshire folks make some pretty independent decisions. And a week can be lifetime in politics and there is nothing that says that, you know, just because those were the two hat did well yesterday that they are the two that are going to come out of New Hampshire.

You know, we've got seven days is a long time and our citizens are going to be looking very closely at all of these candidates.

LEMON: You guys like to say that you thrive and celebrate that you're unpredictable. But you also said that New Hampshire does a service for the whole nation by vetting the candidates. Explain what you mean by that, Jennifer.

HORN: Well, you know, New Hampshire is a very accessible state for these candidates. You don't have to have $150 million in the bank, you don't have to be rich, you don't have to have, you know, 100 percent name I.D. You can you come to New Hampshire have up close access to all of our voters and really make the case for yourself and do well.

I say all the time the first in the nation primary isn't about choosing the nominee, it's about preserving that dream that anyone in America can work hard and become president. We're very accessible, folks like Carly Fiorina and Governor Kasich and Governor Christie, and you know, a whole long list to people before them.

They can come to New Hampshire, make their case to the people and could very well end up being the surprise story next Tuesday.

LEMON: I know as a chairperson you cannot, you know, you can't pick favorites, but I would really like to know which campaigns you've been really engaging in, that have been engaged in the kind of campaigning that works for the voters here.

HORN: Well, I think folks know that if you want to succeed in New Hampshire, you have to be on the ground here as much as possible talking to our voters face to face. And the majority of our candidates have done that successfully.

I was at an event last night for Governor Christie, the place was packed. He connects really well with people in the audience. You know, he's able to get right up there, look them eye to eye, and answers every question.

Governor Kasich has got a strong game here. We see that he's creeping up in the polls a little bit. He does very well with our voters. You know, I hate to even start naming names because the truth is the majority of our candidates has spent a lot of time here. They built strong ground games and almost any one of them, you know, has a viable path to come out of New Hampshire in a good spot.

LEMON: Jennifer, I read an article in the Union Leader that you refer to yourself as undecided voter. Do you really not have a candidate in mind and when do you think you're going to defy?

HORN: I am genuinely, I am genuinely undecided and I'll tell you, Don, that's unusual for me. Because unlike many of the folks here in New Hampshire, I'm usually an early decider.

[22:30:05] But this year around I'm in that 50 to 60 percent who are still undecided today, and in large part I think for the same reason that so many others.

The republicans have such a broad, diverse field of qualified candidates, we look across the aisle and we see a party who is barely able to get two people on stage and it's a socialist who is trying to make a liar look, you know, less liberal than he is and she's trying to somehow get to his left.

So, I'm very proud of our party, I'm proud of our candidates. And when this is all over, it's going to be about a republican nominee offering the American people a better path, a better tomorrow. And I think we put that person up against Hillary Clinton and her record of failure and he dishonesty with the American people, it's going to be a good 2016 for the Republican Party.

LEMON: I guess you've decided you're not voting for Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. At least that much you know. Thank you, Jennifer Horn.

HORN: I have my general election -- I have my general election vote figured out.

LEMON: Thank you. I really appreciate it. I'm going to bring you two gentlemen now who I think you're very familiar with. They have seen it all in New Hampshire, but they've never seen a race like this I'm sure.

So, joining me now is former Senator John Sununu, who was supporting Governor John Kasich, and P.J. O'Rouke, the columnist for The Daily Beast.

Gentlemen, good evening to you. P.J., I'm going to start with you.


LEMON: In 2008, -- good evening. Mike Huckabee won Iowa, 2012, Rick Santorum, neither one went on to win in New Hampshire and neither one of them became the republican nominee for president. New Hampshire has a way of really bucking a trend. So, what are you expecting?

P.J. O'ROUKE, THE DAILY BEAST COLUMNIST: Well, you know, I'm just looking for same republican. I like Kasich a lot myself. I could support Rubio. I wish he were old enough to drive. You know, we are moving now from random...


LEMON: Rubio and Cruz aren't that far in age. But, go ahead.

O'ROUKE: We're moving from random stupidity to focused stupidity now. We now have a choice between a sort of general idiocy of Trump and the very specific of Cruz. And I think that helps clarify the situation. I weren't -- I wish there weren't 7 or 8 or 11 semi sane republicans to make my choice a little easier.

LEMON: Here, Senator, I want to ask you this, a lot of people have been telling, you know, people privately, including me, that they support Trump but do you think that that's because New Hampshire voters cast their ballots unanimously rather than the caucus where, you know, publicly in front of their neighbors and their friends? Do you see that working in Donald Trump's favor?

SUNUNU: No, not at all. In fact, in the Iowa caucus republicans cast their vote by secret ballot also. They attend the caucus, there are speeches but it's a secret ballot.

But you point out something that's very interesting. Donald Trump dramatically underperformed the polls. I think that will be repeated in New Hampshire. In addition to that, look, he lost. You know, all the bluster, all the hype, all the smoke and he lost in Iowa. And I think that takes a lot of wind out of the sails and voters in New Hampshire are going to look for a more serious candidate anyway.

So, I think he comes into the state wounded, he comes in a loser and I think he'll go out a loser.

LEMON: If it had been different you think if he ha had -- had he won.


O'ROUKE: Well, I hope you're...

LEMON: I'll let you get in, P.J. But let me ask you, Mr. Sununu...

O'ROUKE: Oh, I'm sorry.

LEMON: ... do you think it would have different that voters would have seen him differently had he won in New Hampshire?

SUNUNU: Had he won in Iowa? LEMON: Yes.

SUNUNU: Maybe. But P.J. points out, look, we don't -- New Hampshire doesn't follow the lead of Iowa.


SUNUNU: We have a much more diverse electorate. Iowa was 60 percent Evangelicals, which obviously explains why Ted Cruz did well. That kind of demographic doesn't exist anywhere else in the country and certainly not in New Hampshire.


SUNUNU: Jennifer Horn talked about the kind of campaign that makes a different. It's town to town, person to person.

LEMON: Go ahead, P.J.

O'ROUKE: I think John is absolutely right. I mean, one of the reasons Trump has a big poll lead in the United States -- in United States, in New Hampshire, is that we like to mess with you, you pollster folks, you know.

And I mean, you call us at dinnertime, you're lucky if Trump is the worst word you hear from us. I'm not too convinced that Trump is going to be as strong in New Hampshire as people think he will be.

LEMON: P.J. O'Rourke, you need to get a sense of humor. But, go ahead, John.


O'ROUKE: You think so? This year, I think this would be the wrong year.

LEMON: Go ahead, John.

SUNUNU: P.J., it sounds like Don didn't know who he was interviewing.

LEMON: That was sarcasm, but go ahead.

SUNUNU: In all seriousness the -- in the last week, at least half of the New Hampshire voters really make their choice. And the real question is where will those late deciders go, those late choosers? And they're not going to Donald Trump or someone like Jeb Bush who are very well known.

[22:35:01] And there's no question someone like John Kasich or P.J. mentioned Marco Rubio, they're going to get the lion's share of the late deciders. And they've probably both been polling around 12 percent.

John Kasich has been on the RCP average polling in second place, if we get a lion's share of those late breakers, we're going to run a strong second or win the primary. And that's the approach. And that's not new this year. That's the way the primary in New Hampshire has historically gone.


SUNUNU: If you have win those late deciders, you have a lot of momentum and a surprise on the election.

LEMON: I've got to get this on, because P.J. with Marco Rubio strong performance in Iowa, the fight is now on the establishment. And I want you to take a look at what Chris Christie is saying about Senator Rubio.


GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE, (R-NJ) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know me, unlike some of these other campaigns; I'm not the boy in the bubble, OK. We know who the boy in the bubble is up here, who never answers your questions, who is constantly scripted and controlled because he can't answer your questions. So, when Senator Rubio gets here, when the boy in the bubble gets here, I hope you guys ask him some questions. Because it's time for him to start answering questions.


LEMON: So, we know that John is, you know, likes Senator Kasich. But, P.J., I have to ask you, who is the biggest target on their back heading into New Hampshire? Is it Marco Rubio, is it Donald Trump, is it Ted Cruz? I don't know, maybe it's John Kasich.

O'ROUKE: Well, I think it's actually Ted Cruz. But, I mean, I do wish that these kids would all stop squabbling, you know. The other day, you know, the other day I was thinking to myself when are the grownups in the Republican Party going to step in and pose some order and then I looked in the mirror and I said, oh, gosh, I'm a grown up in the Republican Party.


O'ROUKE: Yes. Ouch.

LEMON: All right, gentlemen.

SUNUNU: It's a great country.


SUNUNU: It's a great country. Thank you, Don.

LEMON: Thank you. And you guys are great guests. I hope to have you back soon. Thank you very much.

O'ROUKE: Thank you.

LEMON: All right.

O'ROUKE: Bye, John.

SUNUNU: Take care, P.J.

LEMON: That's an expensive phone call. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders take the stage in our democratic presidential town hall, that's in New Hampshire tomorrow night, 9 Eastern right here on CNN. Make sure you tune in.

But up next, Donald Trump explains why he didn't win the Iowa caucuses and why he says being number two is not such a bad thing.


LEMON: And we're back. Tonight, Donald Trump is down playing his second place finish in Iowa and saying he is not worried about Marco Rubio cutting into his lead in New Hampshire.

Let's discuss now with Matt Lewis, he is the author of "Too Dumb to Fail," and senior contributor to Daily Caller, also Bakari Sellers is a CNN contributor, Katrina Pierson, national spokesperson for the Trump campaign, and Van Jones, a former Obama administration official.

So, who's awake on this panel, anybody? Am I the only one.



LEMON: You guys work really hard as I watch from vacation. Good job. So, Katrina, I want to play a little bit from Donald Trump earlier explaining why he lost in Iowa.


TRUMP: I was expected to come in like anywhere maybe 10, 11, 12, 13. I ended up coming in second. I didn't devote tremendous time to it, didn't devote tremendous money to it.

In fact, I guess in terms of money per vote I'm about at the bottom, meaning the most efficient. I came in second, I came in a strong second, third was quite a bit away, I think 2,500 or something, close to 3,000 votes away. That was a big -- that was a big difference between second and third. I think that we did really well. I mean, you know, as far as that's concerned.


LEMON: All right, Katrina, you're going to be honest with me here, right?


LEMON: So, Donald Trump, he didn't expect to win Iowa, right?


LEMON: Because this is -- he is putting the best face on this loss. PIERSON: Well, I mean, he did expect to win. And he says that. He

says he would like to win. And, you know, he admits he didn't spend as much money and maybe as much time as the other candidates, which may have contributed to it.

Whether it was the debate that may have contributed to it. But, Don, he still did really well as a first-time candidate running for president, he had 50 percent more of the votes than Reagan or Romney, three times as many as McCain or Gingrich. So, safe to say he did really well.

LEMON: All three of them broke a record, Rubio, Trump, and Cruz. And, Matt, you know, this is -- this is what Donald Trump and his team were saying leading into the caucuses. Listen.


TRUMP: We are going to win so much. We're going to have win after win after win.

We can win here. If we can win in Iowa -- everything was talking about it, we an run the table for the first time ever. Because if I come in number two, I could say that's a victory. It's not a victory. It's not a victory. Not for me it's not.

Well, you have to be a little bit nervous. And, you know, I like to win, and I want to win for the country, I don't want to win for myself. And this is actually my first election night.


LEMON: So, if you look in the dictionary under swagger, and I think, you know, Donald Trump's picture could be there. Can he recapture that signature swagger, Matt?

MATT LEWIS, "TOO DUMB TO FAIL" AUTHOR: Yes. And he can get passes. But, look, politics is really a lot of this is about expectations. And you set the expectations and then you either meet them or exceed them or fail to do so.

And so, compare that to Marco Rubio, who, you know, finished the third place but exceeded expectations. Trump elevated the expectations and did not meet them. That's OK. He goes on to New Hampshire.

Now, if he falls apart in New Hampshire, New Hampshire is a much better state for Donald Trump. He's up significantly there, if Trump falls apart in New Hampshire, then I think its crisis move for Trump, but until then he's OK.


LEMON: Go ahead, Van.

JONES: One thing that is so interesting here is that Americans actually like braggers. When they win -- Muhammad Ali, he was bragging, bragging, and brag, and they he went knocked ball out in the round he call. People like that. Steve Jobs, he would say I'm going to change the world; I'm going to transform everything. And then he could go and do it.

People hate braggers who would actually brag and brag and then slip on their own banana meal. Here's the thing, you either have to spend the time or you have to spend the dime.

[22:39:59] You either have to put those face time in and be there and shake the hands or you would at least how to put together a world class operation. What you have is a cheap skate billionaire that did not spend the time or the dime, slipped on his own banana peel and now wants people to think that he said he did something great. He did not.


LEMON: Katrina, are you going to let him get away with that?

PIERSON: No. Well, of course.

JONES: He did not.

PIERSON: But let's also recall that Donald Trump wasn't even supposed to be in the top 10 in Iowa.

JONES: Not according to him. Not according to him.

PIERSON: He was told by everyone. But he was told by everyone that Iowa isn't his state but he competed anyway. And I think that's the point we're making here.

JONES: He should have said that.

PIERSON: He competed anyway even though he was told he would not do well at all.

SELLERS: But, Don.

LEMON: Go ahead, Bakari. You sat there quietly and patiently. Go ahead.

SELLERS: Yes. I do -- I do have to and I would never find myself defending Trump but I do some late nights with you. If anyone, Van or myself who actually studied politics...


LEMON: But you only do it late at night with me? I've seen you on State of the Union. You've actually tweeted him on the State of the Union.

SELLERS: So, if anyone would have said a year ago that Donald Trump would have come in second in Iowa, been leading in New Hampshire and leading in South Carolina, they would have all called us crazy.

JONES: Sure. SELLERS: I mean, practically speaking, when I walked back past the screen last night and saw Marco Rubio give that speech without knowing the results, I thought Marco Rubio had won.

LEMON: Right.

SELLERS: I didn't know he was claiming his participation trophy for coming in third place. But Donald Trump literally -- Donald Trump literally came in second place last night in Iowa, a place known for Evangelical, Christian voters.

He's going into New Hampshire with a hell of a lead. We're not sure if anybody can catch him. So, I actually think that Donald Trump although he didn't win last night, which I thought was a great block of history here, he still has an opportunity to do very, very, very well in New Hampshire.


LEMON: You are going everywhere tonight.

SELLERS: This race -- this race is flipped on its head.

LEMON: yes. I had to say, I do have to say that's a very astute observation. Because had I not seen my e-mails when I woke up this morning, I would have thought that Ted Cruz had won. If you look at the television screen in the airport...


JONES: You mean Rubio.

LEMON: ... Rubio rather. I saw so much Rubio. I'm like Rubio win? When I knew that Ted Cruz won because I've checked my e-mail.

JONES: But that is politics, Don.

LEMON: yes.

JONES: But you have to - it's about the expectations game. You know, everybody remembers a Bill Clinton being the quote, unquote, "comeback kid" in New Hampshire. Bill Clinton...

LEWIS: He came in second.

JONES: He came in second.

SELLERS: Right. Exactly.

LEWIS: And Rubio's team set this up the whole time, though. That's the other thing. Rubio deserves to get credit for declaring victory out of a third place finish because they set it up the whole time. They prepared us for those expectations. In fact, he exceeded the 18 percent or whatever what we felt would have good night for Rubio.

LEMON: OK. Stand by, everyone. I can't believe I'm going to say this, but, Katrina, you actually will get more another chance to talk. You didn't get a lot of -- this time. I'm saying to Katrina...


PIERSON: What do you mean you can't believe you're going to say that?

LEMON: I'm just joking, Katrina, calm down.

Everyone, stay with me. Up next, Clinton versus Sanders in New Hampshire. He may have the home field advantage but will that be enough. We'll be right back.


LEMON: Hillary Clinton gets a win in Iowa beating Bernie Sanders in the closest race in caucus history. So, what will that mean in New Hampshire?

Back with me now, Matt Lewis, Bakari Sellers, Katrina Pierson, and Van Jones. So, Van, first, Bernie Sanders has the home field advantage in New Hampshire, he's from the neighboring State of Vermont. Here's what he had to say today.


SANDERS: Secretary Clinton ran here in 2008. Secretary Clinton won here in 2008. Secretary Clinton has a very formidable political organization and as you know has virtually the entire political establishment on her side.

So, you know, we are taking nothing for granted. Trust me, we are not. We are going to work as hard as we can. We just did this wonderful meeting here in Keene; we'll be in Claremont later in the afternoon. We're going to be all over this state.

So, we are going to work with our volunteers to bring out as many people as possible. And we look forward to winning here but we take nothing, nothing for granted.


LEMON: So, lowering expectations. Is this a strategy, Van, to downplaying his strength in New Hampshire?

JONES: Look, that's the way the game is played. This guy has done 20 elections, won 14. So, he knows that it's important for him to say exactly what he said. Of course, what he says has the benefit of being true.

One thing I think and we haven't talked about enough, he owes a great deal, Bernie Sanders, to Fox News. Fox News made this guy electable by calling Barack Obama a socialist every day for eight years. So, you have a whole generations of young Americans who think socialism is not that bad a deal because they say the president is a socialist every day.

So, literally, Bernie Sanders should send a thank you letter to Fox News. They've overused the socialism thing so much, it's like an anti- biotic, it doesn't work anymore. The red paint it doesn't work. It opened an opportunity for him.

And frankly, I think his supporters sent a very important message to Secretary of State Clinton, you do have some pent-up pain and frustration, especially among young voters who have worked harder with young voters to make stronger going forward, but I'm proud of Bernie Sanders.

LEMON: OK. Do you think that they have sort of, I don't anesthetized the word in making a socialist electable, Katrina?

PIERSON: Well, I'm not quite sure, Don, how many of those young Bernie Sanders supporters actually watch Fox News, but I will say that a lot of the hype around Bernie has been strongly driven by the media. But the fact that Hillary Clinton has gotten herself into so many scandals really isn't helping either.

So, I think what's happening on both of the aisle is the volatility of the electorate is sick and tired of business as usual and politicians. Because politicians will say anything they can to get elected. And we're seeing that play out on both sides.

LEMON: Matt Lewis, I mean, Donald Trump and the, you know, the media has also, you know, played a lot into Donald Trump as well. He's always doing interviews. He's always on television.

LEWIS: Yes. Look, there is, you know, Katrina is right. There is similarities here I think. You know, you got these two guys who were straight shooters. Bernie's been in the Senate a long time. He doesn't feel like a politician, though, just stylistically. And they're tapping into something very real out there.

And it's really on the left and on the right. I mean, there was a -- there was a moment during one debate where, you know, Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz where it sounded almost identical. You know, they were both talking about, you know, whether it's interventionism...


JONES: That's not going to help her

[22:55:01] LEWIS: ... or, you know, trade. So, yes, there is something, too. And look, and there is somebody to blame. You know, if you're in left to the right you can blame globalization, automation, immigration, or whatever. Somebody is to blame for all the problems that we're having right now.


SELLERS: But, Don.

LEMON: Go ahead, Bakari. I'm going to give the last word..

SELLERS: Don, if I may, we just have to look at the demographics of this electorate. I mean, the participation of non-white voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, they are so small, they are so tiny. The only State in the Union that has a smaller participation of non-white voters is Vermont.

So, the demographic is going to change. And the fact of the matter is, Iowa is a state where Bernie Sanders should have done well and he lost. Now after New Hampshire he has to go to Nevada and he has to go to South Carolina. The demographics changed and he's going to have to test that message out. And we keep having this myth about young voters. Well, let me tell you this, Don, how many HBCUs voted yesterday in these Iowa caucus? None. How many HBCUs are going to vote in this New Hampshire primary? None.

JONES: What's an HBCU, what's an HBCU by the way?

LEMON: Historically black college and universities. But here's the thing, but that is -- that doesn't -- that's not good for Bernie Sanders, nor is it good for Ted Cruz if what you're saying is right, Bakari.


SELLERS: Well, all I'm saying is that...

LEMON: But either one of those gentlemen.

SELLERS: All I'm saying is that, you know, this whole myth about all these young voters who are coming out and millennials being all behind Bernie Sanders, OK. Well, we're going to have to shift and talk about the demographic. I mean, where are African-American millennials, where are Hispanic millennials? And there is a key point that came out of that racial...


LEMON: Quickly, Bakari, I've got to get to the top of the hour. Go ahead.

SELLERS: Bernie Sanders lost nine white voters by 24 percent and that is a devastating factor in this election.

LEMON: All right. Thank you, every one. I appreciate it. Coming up, did Donald Trump miscalculate in Iowa? And how vulnerable is he going into New Hampshire? We have a lot to talk about when we come right back.