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CNN NEWSROOM

New Hampshire Voters Now Very Different from 2008; Clinton and Sanders Turn to New Hampshire; Bush Presses Reset Button; Young Voters, Late Decisions Impact Iowa; Quarterbacks Face off at Super Bowl Media Day. Aired 10:30-11a ET

Aired February 2, 2016 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


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[10:29:38] CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me.

All eyes now focused on New Hampshire where voters cast their ballots one week from today. And the campaign crush is well underway with nearly 20 events across the Granite State today alone.

And it's not the same New Hampshire as it was eight years ago. No, it's a completely different state population-wise. Nearly one out of every three people in New Hampshire did not cast a ballot last time. Either because they were too young or they lived in another state or someplace else.

Let's talk about this study with University of New Hampshire sociology professor, Ken Johnson. Good morning -- Ken.

KEN JOHNSON, UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE: Good morning -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Thank you for being with me.

So tell us more about this study and how the population of New Hampshire has changed since the last election.

JOHNSON: Yes. One thing we wanted to make clear in this study was that New Hampshire is not the sort of state of people who have been here for ten generations that it's often portrayed as.

So what happened in the last eight years is that about 200,000 voting age people moved to New Hampshire, and about 129,000 young voters became old enough to vote. At the same time roughly 200,000 voters who had been here in 2008 left and about 70,000 New Hampshire age voters died.

And so in the state with just over a million eligible voters, that's a change of almost 30 percent in the population who will actually be here to vote.

COSTELLO: Wow. So will it be hard for campaigns to adjust?

JOHNSON: Well, if they think they're talking to the same people they were eight years ago, yes. The young voters in particular tend to be more liberal, a little less likely to vote Republican, a little more likely to vote Democrat than the existing population.

And the people that died mostly older adults, were much more likely to be Republican and more likely to be conservative. So that -- those cohorts left the scene and a younger more liberal cohort came onto the scene.

COSTELLO: So that probably bodes well for candidates like Bernie Sanders. And I'm looking at the entrance polls here, and he won very young voters by a landslide in Iowa.

JOHNSON: Yes. Some of the analysis that was done by the UNH survey center recently found that among people who had not voted in 2008 and were going to be favoring Democrats, that that group was very strong for Bernie Sanders.

COSTELLO: And -- I'm sorry you blanked out there in my IC and I couldn't hear the last part of your answer but I got the gist.

Let's talk about who may vote for which Republican candidate because I'm looking at these entrance polls again, and the candidates who did well among young people were Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. How do you think each man will fair in New Hampshire?

JOHNSON: Carol, I have to say I'm a demographer, not a political scientist. So it's hard for me to speculate about that. Let me tell you a little bit more about the voters that are coming to New Hampshire, though.

New Hampshire tends to get people in their 30s and 40s along with their children. They tend to be well educated and they tend to have higher incomes than the people who are leaving New Hampshire. So that -- the types of candidates who would appeal to family-age voters and especially those with children who are well educated and have reasonably high incomes are likely to do better in New Hampshire because of that change in the demographic structure of the state.

COSTELLO: That's interesting -- very interesting because among 30 to 39-year-olds, Cruz and Rubio do well but so does Donald Trump. So it will be interesting on the Republican side -- maybe. We'll just have to see.

Ken Jones (SIC), thanks for being with me this morning.

We'll have much more when we come back.

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[10:38:01] COSTELLO: After the nail biter in Iowa you will see a lot of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire. With just days until the first-in-the-nation primary -- a recent CNN/WMUR poll shows Sanders with a double-digit lead over Clinton.

Joining me now to talk about this is Brian Fallon -- he's press secretary for Hillary for America. Welcome -- Brian.

BRIAN FALLON, HILLARY FOR AMERICA: Hi, Carol. COSTELLO: Thank you for being here. Mrs. Clinton has declared

victory. The Iowa Democratic Party though is waiting for one final county. In the meantime, the Sanders camp says it's going to request vote count sheets in several precincts.

Listen to what Bernie Sanders told CNN's Jeff Zeleny.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Any concerns about the voter irregularities?

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, we're studying that right now. We'll see what happens. But I'm just very proud of the campaign that we ran and the thousands of volunteers that worked so hard.

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COSTELLO: Well, you know what I'm talking about. How would you respond to the Sanders' camp?

FALLON: Well, in the last two weeks leading up to last night's caucus in Iowa, you saw a lot of unfounded allegations being thrown about by the Sanders campaign. I think it reflected the fact that weren't so confident and what to expect in Iowa last night.

And so I think that the process was conducted with complete and utter integrity. We're confident in the results even with the outstanding precincts that the Iowa Democratic Party is still counting. There's no way for Senator Sanders to catch up.

And what I think last night's showing was a testament to is that there's a high amount of energy and enthusiasm among Hillary Clinton supporters. It's a quiet level of determination -- go ahead, Carol.

COSTELLO: But if Iowa hasn't declared a winner, didn't Secretary Clinton claim victory too soon?

FALLON: Oh, no, the Iowa Democratic Party has affirmed that Hillary Clinton has won, and that Bernie Sanders can't catch up. There's 44 delegates up for grabs. And we have won 23 of them to Sanders 21.

[10:40:05] And that's just the bottom line fact. And this is despite the fact that turnout was quite remarkably high, the second most ever in a Democratic caucus, second only to 2008.

171,000 Democrats showed up. The Sanders campaign had said in the last couple of weeks that if they hit 170,000 they were confident they'd win. They thought that a high turnout election would favor Senator Sanders. It turned out that there was a lot of quiet determination out there and support of Clinton.

And it's also a tribute to our great ground organization that turned out our supporters and that is now going to be exported to all these other states. So we're quite confident that --

COSTELLO: Well, let me ask you about New Hampshire because it's still a tight race in Iowa. I'm sure that Hillary Clinton would have wanted the numbers for her to be bigger.

But in New Hampshire, the polls are saying that Sanders wins easily there. What do you say?

FALLON: Well, there's no doubt that we go into this final week before New Hampshire slightly down. But a lot can happen in a week. And if you look at the last CNN poll that surveyed Iowa caucus-goers about a week ago, it showed us down eight, and yet, here we are this morning with a very impressive victory.

And so I think that a lot can happen in a week. We're going to work our hearts out this coming week. Hillary Clinton is going to be here all week. She's going to be here for two events today. We have a debate later this week.

And I think if you look inside the numbers last night and the coalition that Hillary Clinton put together to help catapult her to victory, you saw a sizable advantage with women caucus-goers. You saw a sizable advantage with African Americans. You saw a sizable advantage plus nine with union households.

You know, Bernie Sanders likes to talk about his agenda for working class Americans. Hillary Clinton has got some pretty powerful ideas and they resonated to the tune of a plus nine advantage with the union --

COSTELLO: No, I get where you're going. I'm just looking --

FALLON: -- that is the makings of a winning coalition --

COSTELLO: I'm just looking at the entrance polls and I get what you're saying. But I'm looking at the entrance polls and Mrs. Clinton did not do so well among young voters -- 17 to 29, or even 17 to 39. Those under 40 voted mostly for Bernie Sanders.

She also didn't do well among Independents. Sanders took that vote by 69 percent. There are a lot of independents in New Hampshire. So don't you have to overcome these numbers to win in New Hampshire?

FALLON: Well, it's an open question as to exactly which way Independents will go because the novelty of the system here is that they have the ability to cast a ballot in either the Republican or the Democratic primary.

There's no doubt we have room to grow in some of those demographics you mentioned including with young people. But as I just listed out some of the other support groups where we saw high levels of enthusiasm for Secretary Clinton -- that is the makings of a winning coalition throughout the March states when once you get past Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, the first four early states, you have Super Tuesday, and then the mid March states all coming all at once. And a lot of those populations where Hillary Clinton did the best in Iowa last night are overly represented in those March states.

So we have multiple paths to victory coming out of Iowa tonight, or last night, and so we're confident that while this nomination process may take several weeks and months to play out that Hillary Clinton will emerge as the nominee.

And that's important, because we saw last night, a victory by Cruz, second place finish by Donald Trump. If the Republicans nominate the likes of one of those two guys, the Democrats need to put forward somebody that can make sure that we protect the gains that we've made under President Obama and go further to improve the lives of everyday Americans.

COSTELLO: I have to leave it there. Brian Fallon -- thanks for stopping by.

Hillary Clinton, by the way, will be live on CNN this afternoon. Her interview with Wolf Blitzer airs at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time.

With Iowa behind him Jeb Bush is looking to reset his campaign in New Hampshire. At the first of four events in the state Bush has made critical in his bid for the White House.

CNN's Athena Jones is in New Hampshire this morning with more. Good morning.

ATHENA JONES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning -- Carol. You can see this event getting underway. As far as the Bush campaign is concerned, this is a new race in a new state -- a state that looks very different from Iowa. The voters here have a different profile. For instance e1vangelical voters in New Hampshire won't be nearly as important as they were in Iowa.

So we expect Governor Bush to continue to make the case that he is going to be the best person to nominate for the Republican nomination because he has a proven record. He argues that those two senators who emerged near the top last night -- at the top and near the top -- Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, they're good talkers but they don't match his record.

Take a listen to what he had to say about Cruz and Rubio last night.

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JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: In the candidates that are likely to emerge in Iowa are two people that are back benchers that have never done anything of consequence in their lives. They're gifted beyond believe. They can give a great speech, but I think it's time for us to recognize that maybe what we need is someone who can lead -- someone who has a proven record.

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[10:45:08] JONES: Now, Bush folks acknowledge that Rubio has a momentum coming into New Hampshire, but they also believe he's going to be under a lot of scrutiny in the next several days heading into next week's primary. They believe that Bush can surprise folks here in New Hampshire.

He -- Governor Bush described this race at this state as a place that can reset the race. And so what does that mean -- surprise folks? I talked to Senator Graham, you can see here talking behind me just the other day. He said that he believes Bush, a good showing for Bush here in New Hampshire would mean finishing in third or fourth. Another Bush campaign official I spoke to this morning said fourth or maybe even fifth place would be good for Bush.

And that's what they're pushing for to beat the expectations and surprise folks here in New Hampshire -- Carol.

COSTELLO: All right. Athena Jones reporting live -- thanks.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, how young voters and late deciders changed the course of the Iowa caucuses.

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[10:50:09] COSTELLO: Ted Cruz took Iowa for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton declared victory for the Democrats. But winning isn't everything.

Who voted for a candidate and why also plays a critical role in the race ahead. CNN's Tom Foreman, live in Coralville, Iowa with more on that. Good morning -- Tom.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning -- Carol.

You know what it's like here. The whole thing is about beating expectations. That's what really matters. And if you look at the Democratic side, the way that Bernie Sanders beat expectations, at least the expectations of a couple of months ago when he was well behind Hillary Clinton is that he got out a lot of first-time caucus goers. And that meant he got a lot of young voters.

If you look at the break down of who voted yesterday, essentially if you were under the age of 40, you were more likely to vote for Bernie Sanders. And the younger you went in that scale down to the age of 18, the more likely you were to vote for Bernie Sanders.

Once you got over the age of 40, you get more tried and tested Democrats, in as sense, people that have been around a long time they went with Hillary Clinton. And same pattern the older they got, the more they went with Hillary Clinton.

The other thing that really mattered in here was income -- same sort of breakdown. Basically if you made $50,000 or less as a Democrat and you went to the polls yesterday, or the caucuses, you were more likely to lean toward Bernie Sanders. So below $50,000 a year in income, they lean toward Bernie Sanders.

I talked to a lot of those voters who said look, I need someone like me and I think he understands me not making this money. You make over $50,000, and you went more toward Hillary Clinton -- Carol.

COSTELLO: All right. What about the Republican side?

FOREMAN: On the Republican side the person who defied all the numbers here was Marco Rubio. Yes, Cruz and Trump duked it out at the top. Trump had some setbacks here obviously.

But Marco Rubio was the one who was way down who managed to sort of rise up. One of the things that helped him were the late deciders -- the people who waited until the end to say who am I going to go with.

Trump had a big surge before, but as it got into that final stage there, Rubio got a good share of those. He didn't dominate that but he did well enough with that to really get something to keep him in the race there.

Education also made a difference in all of this. Basically if you got to people who had a college degree or above, Rubio won that group. Below that it went to Donald Trump and to Ted Cruz at a slightly higher level of education than Donald Trump, generally in terms of voters. Not everybody but some.

And the one really big telling thing in all of this, it speaks to the desire among Republicans to really win back the White House. The one thing where Rubio really just beat everybody else handily was who can win the White House? Many Democrats here believe he can win the big race and no doubt that informed some of their voting in this caucus -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Oh, yes. It always comes down to electability -- interesting.

FOREMAN: Absolutely.

COSTELLO: Tom Foreman -- thanks so much.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, less than a week from Super Bowl 50, the first face off between quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Cam Newton. I can't wait.

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[10:57:33] COSTELLO: Before the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers can face off in Super Bowl, they have to survive the spectacle that is Super Bowl media day. Coy Wire was there for all the fun and as far as I can tell you survived. Tell us more.

COY WIRE, CNN SPORTS: good morning -- Carol. It's a great rainy morning here in the Bay Area. Last night, for the first time ever media day was moved to the evening. There were thousands of media members there from all over the world. So reporters were using all kinds of tactics, as usual, to get the attention of the players.

You had clowns. There were there were puppets. There was an alpine skier. We had super heroes, even Miss Universe asking, and for some reason, Carol the players were giving her all kinds of attention and interviews.

Now much of the talk heading into this game has been about the quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Cam Newton -- and they talked about facing off against each other in Super Bowl 50.

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PEYTON MANNING, DENVER BRONCOS: He's been a great passer. He's been a great runner. He's been a great leader. You don't go 17 and 1 as a starting quarterback without being awesome. And that's what he's been this year, without a doubt.

CAM NEWTON, CAROLINA PANTHERS: It's just a tremendous honor to be even mentioned and affiliated with the face of the league, but yet, I think I have bigger fish to fry on Sunday. And we'll worry about the rest of the eight to ten years after that.

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WIRE: Now, another big talker here early during Super Bowl week has been Cam Newton's questionable fashion choices on his trip here to the Bay Area on Sunday. The pants -- the black and white zebra print, adorned with gold, the Versace skinny jeans. Now, Cam actually had a great explanation for why he chose to wear them.

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NEWTON: It's Super Bowl 50 -- the mantra of the colors are black and gold. The black and gold attire that I had in my closet was extremely limited. So when I looked at my pants and I said these are black and gold, these shoes are black and gold to tie along with the whole Super Bowl 50 black and gold.

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WIRE: I don't know how limited your choices are if those are in your closet, Cam. We asked players whether he rocked it or dumb- jocked it. Check it out on CNN.com -- Carol. Some pretty good responses.

COSTELLO: That is a man who is very sure of his masculinity. No fear there.

WIRE: That's right.

COSTELLO: Coy Wire -- thanks. You made my morning.

Thanks for joining me today. I'm Carol Costello.

"AT THIS HOUR" with Berman and Bolduan starts now.