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CNN NEWSROOM

Trump's Narrow Lead to 270 Electoral Votes; No Path to Victory for Trump without Florida; Early Mail-In Votes Show Clinton Surge in Florida; Katy Perry, Miley Cyrus Campaign for Clinton on College Campuses; Veterans Force to Repay Sign-On Bonuses after Going to War. Aired 2:30-3p ET

Aired October 24, 2016 - 14:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[14:30:00] BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: That is the frightening mystery. You would know, you know, everything you just said, you visited the largest military base in Iraq, talking to soldiers there.

Arwa Damon, we'll take in lose contact with you there near the front lines of the war there in Iraq.

Coming up next, in the battleground state of Florida, more than one million people have already cast their vote by mail. What is the impact, the psychological impact on voters who haven't yet voted? How does that affect them?

Also ahead, Katy Perry and Miley Cyrus knocking on doors in college dorms on campuses. Hillary Clinton using their celebrity to help convince young voters to say, I'm with her.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:35:02] BALDWIN: Let's talk about the path to the White House, specifically, getting to that magic number of 270. We can tell you CNN is projecting Hillary Clinton is poised to win at least 300 crucial electoral votes.

As John King shows us, Donald Trump is facing a much steeper climb to 270.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT & CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Welcome back. A little more than two weeks out, the biggest question is, does Donald Trump have a path? Can he fill in this map in a way that gets him to 270, gets him to the White House? You have to say heading into the challenge for Mr. Trump.

Look at this right there. A nine-point lead in our average of the national polls, 48 percent for Secretary Clinton, 39 percent for Donald Trump. That's a steep hill to climb in just over two weeks.

Let's go to the map that matters most, electoral map. Can he get there? She starts about an overwhelming advantage. CNN projects Hillary Clinton, if the election were today, would get 307 electoral votes, Donald Trump only at 179. What does he have to do to win? It's an overwhelming task. He's

spending three days in Florida. We lean it Democratic right now. Donald Trump cannot win without those 29 electoral votes. He must win North Carolina. Secretary Clinton is a little ahead. He must win Ohio. That is deadlocked right now. Trump has to win that state.

Plus, he has to worry about these, Arizona and Utah, two ruby red Republican states in play with two weeks until Election Day. That's a problem for Donald Trump.

Guess what, even if he's perfect, even if he does everything I said, gets his base back out west, turns Florida, wins North Carolina, and he'll still be short, even if he's perfect. Donald Trump would still need, under that scenario, more electoral votes. A big prize like Pennsylvania, a combination of Michigan and somewhere else. A very steep hill.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BALDWIN: Oh, John King, thank you.

You just heard John King say, Donald Trump cannot win without Florida's crucial 29 electoral votes. He knows it. He's on a three- day blitz of the state. And as a new national poll shows, his campaign is falling behind in Florida. Clinton leading 46 percent to Trump's 43 percent.

Joining me, Daniel Smith, professor of political science at the University of Florida.

You know all these numbers. You're watching these absentee.

Let's begin with mail-in votes. Usually, mail-in votes in state of Florida leans Republican. Numbers here, Republicans are up just a little bit over the Democrats. What's your interpretation of that and is there more than meets the eye?

DANIEL SMITH, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA: Yes, Brooke. Well, we've had absentee balloting going in through the mail for about two and a half weeks now, over a million votes have been cast, a little more by Republicans than Democrats. Democrats have certainly closed the gap from four years ago, especially from eight years ago. That's in part because the Democrats have pushed vote by mail. The strategy to get their supporters out and about before focusing on those who can start voting early, as in today and all the way through election day. We've seen that gap close between Democrats and Republicans. Where we're seeing the big surge is non- party affiliate voters who are more than double the rate at this time in 2012 voting in absentee ballot my mail.

BALDWIN: Let me stop you there. The no-party affiliation means you're not registered with any party, you can't vote in the primaries, but you vote in general elections. You say that is up twice as much since 2012. Why is that significant?

SMITH: That's correct. I think it's significant because when we look at Hispanics in Florida, they're disproportionately more Democrat than Republicans. We're not seeing a huge surge so Hispanic voting by absentee ballots but it's up and certainly up from 2012 rates. That obviously bodes well for Hillary Clinton.

The other thing we've seen so far in terms the million of votes cast, is about 55 percent have been cast by women. That's on par with 2012. I would have thought that certainly among Democrats, where that number is upwards of 60 percent, would have been higher at this rate had Hillary Clinton supporters really been out there. That should be a concern for the Clinton supporters that the women who are Democrats aren't accounting for larger vote total so far.

BALDWIN: Let me go back to your point, Daniel, on the Democratic strategy to make sure they're getting out the vote now, therefore, you have those bigger numbers than, perhaps, you would have in years past. That's not necessarily a harbinger of things to come on Election Day. What I'm getting at is there still could be a big surprise despite the numbers looking so close.

[14:39:51] SMITH: Yes, I think so. What you could have happening right now, Brooke, is what I call a substitution effect, where people who in 2012 who voted on election day or through the early in person, which starts today across 50 of the 67 counties, could actually be pushed into an absentee ballot camp and be voting absentee ballot, but just replacing them as opposed to new voters who are voting absentee and those who voted earlier on election day.

BALDWIN: Right. It's important. Context matters. November 8th it matters the most.

Daniel Smith, thank you so much, University of Florida. Appreciate your time.

Coming up next, Miley Cyrus goes to college, sort of. Two of the world's biggest pop stars, Katy Perry and Miley Cyrus, and the unusual way these two young ladies are helping Clinton campaign against Trump.

We're watching Trump right now, as we were talking about Florida, we're waiting to watch him in St. Augustine. We'll take you live to Florida. So important.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[14:45:44] (SINGING)

(SINGING)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Katy Perry and Miley Cyrus, two of the biggest pop stars in the world, they're on the campaign trail for Hillary Clinton, not exactly in the traditional sense. Would you believe, they are there knocking on dorm room doors, getting out the younger voters. Katy Perry at University of Las Vegas, Miley Cyrus at George Mason University in Virginia.

Two of the George Mason gals who met Miley Cyrus are with me now. We chatted in the commercial break. They're all giggles. Zim Ocala, a peer mentor who helped organize Miley Cyrus's campaign stop; and Katherine Quigley, a student who found out just an hour before that Miley was on her way.

Girls, nice to meet you. Love this.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: You're welcome.

Katherine, to you first.

Let me just play the moment when Miley Cyrus was in your dorm room suggesting who you might want to vote for. Here you are.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KATHERINE QUIGLEY, GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY COLLEGE STUDENT: I'm voting here.

MILEY CYRUS, SINGER: Cool. I'll be voting. Otherwise, I would just love to show up and be like --

(CROSSTALK)

(LAUGHTER)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: A piece of me wants to ask you what she was wearing, because I'm not totally sure but let's get to the most important part, which is the politics of all of this. Give me the scoop. Tell me about your conversation with her.

QUIGLEY: Honestly, I was just embarrassed I had dirty dishes and pizza boxes. I had no idea she was coming. It was truly kind of an incredible experience because Miley was so down to earth. She wasn't, like, vote for Hillary, vote for Hillary. She was like, what's your passion? What do you love about life? It was just so -- you can attest. It was so natural. I feel like Miley is my best friend now. Every girl's dream. It meant a lot. We talked about how important it is to be a young woman voting. This is my first presidential election ever, at 19 years old. For me it was incredible to have her talk to me, and pointing out my vote matters and so does Miley Cyrus's.

BALDWIN: This is both of your first elections, the both of you -- I'm seeing nods.

Zim, I understand you were headed out of town that Miley Cyrus was coming so you double doubled and headed back to George Mason. Tell me the back story of how this happened and to think she was knocking on dorm room doors, like, why? ZIM OCALA, GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY COLLEGE STUDENT: It was -- we had

seen it on social media for the whole week. It was one of those things I was liked what are the chances I'm going to meet her? I mean, I'm not going to get to see her. Then I get a call from our R.A. and he was -- worked all weekend and he was so funny, he was like, you might want to come back. I was like, why? He told me, and I turned myself around.

(LAUGHTER)

So, I came back. Even then I was like, she may not knock on my door. But she did. It's something you never think will happen to you and then it does.

(LAUGHTER)

BALDWIN: You young ladies are adorable. And I love the enthusiasm. I can think of some women who I would freak out over myself.

Let me ask you a serious question which is, yes, it was Miley Cyrus but obviously she's stumping for Hillary Clinton. What is it about -- as young women here in this election, what is the issue that's matters the most to you? What is it about Hillary Clinton that makes you want to vote for her?

QUIGLEY: Definitely, I have a special education major, particularly students with disabilities. For me, I wanted a candidate who I knew would advocate and fight for my students because right now they're being born. The kids I will have in my class are being brought into the world now. For me just wanted to be with someone who would do that. As the race has gone on, I realize who is best for my students.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Zim, let me jump in and ask you this, if Donald Trump were to have had some sort of celebrity of the Miley or Katy Perry like giggly and excited, would you -- would that have been effective? Would you have heard that person out and considered voting Trump?

OCALA: I highly doubt that being that. I'm a child of an immigrant. I'm the first of our family to be born in the United States, so being that Miley was here to support Hillary and support her platform and that includes, like, immigration and what she's going to do for people that are trying to stabilize their lives here and make something of themselves in this country. And so far, it's been proven that Trump has not supported that in any sense of the word. If someone were to talk to me about supporting something that affects my very existence in this country, it would be very difficult for me.

[14:50:19] BALDWIN: Fair point. You have your own opinions. It's not reply place to tell you who to vote for but I'm happy you young women are voting.

Katherine and Zim, there at George Mason. What an experience.

Thank you, ladies. QUIGLEY: Thank you.

OCALA: Thank you.

BALDWIN: Thank you.

Moments from now, speaking of, Donald Trump will be speaking in Florida. His pal and surrogate there, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani on the stump. By the way, on the flipside, Hillary Clinton out and about today in New Hampshire. Minutes -- this is minutes after Elizabeth Warren was with her there on stage. And let me tell you, neither of them held back. Will Donald Trump respond to that? We'll watch for it.

Also ahead, the military uses a cash bonus to recruit Americans to risk their lives to fight wars. What about these men and women who have gone and done that and now the military is saying to them, hang on a second, we want your bonuses back? Why is this happening? We're outraged by this. We'll discuss it, coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[14:55:31] BALDWIN: The Pentagon is responding to a troubling report that thousands of soldiers are being forced to repay their enlistment bonuses, the money paid to California soldiers to go to war a decade ago. According to the "L.A. Times," nearly 10,000 soldiers are being asked to return at least $15,000 each. The Pentagon says the bonuses were mistakenly paid to these thousands of California guardsmen. Faced with shortage of troop, the military was faced with pressure to increase recruitment.

Iraq War veteran and Purple Heart recipient, Christopher Van Meter, says he felt betrayed when he was ordered to pay the money back.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRISTOPHER VAN METER, IRAQ WAR VETERAN & PURPLE HEART RECIPIENT: It's gut-wrenching because you have to decide what you're going to do and how you're survived. I had a young family. I was ordered to pay $46,000 back. I called the California Army National Guard and said, hey, wait, I have all these contracts that say I should have had that money. They said, in the fall of 2012, well, until we actually start charging you, there's nothing you can do, wait to fight it out with the lawyers.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: So, reaction to this report has been swift. Lawmakers demanding the Pentagon waive the debt. Now the Pentagon is responding.

And let's get to Drew Griffin, our senior investigative correspondent, who has been looking into this.

Drew, first things first, what are the facts, what are you learning? DREW GRIFFIN, CNN SENIOR INVESTIGATIVE CORRESPONDENT: I mean, I think

the takeaway here, Brooke, is that these soldiers were given these bonuses at the time the army needed soldiers to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan. They thought they were getting a great deal. It had nothing to do with them. There was actual crimes going on in the state of California, in particular. The person in charge of signing off and handing out these bonuses to keep these soldiers in uniform actually has gone to prison, serving 30 months, responsible for $15.2 million of these bonuses. So, it wasn't the soldiers' fault. That's what is key here.

Now, the reaction, as you say, has been swift. But I got to tell you, somewhat ingenuous by some of these members of Congress. This problem has been around, they've known about it for years, no one has fixed the problem. The Department of Defense says, we have an individual waiver kind of service that you can apply to, to get a waiver, but we can't -- we can only do individual waivers. We can't do a blanket waiver.

The California National Guard says, look, we're just following the rules outlined by Congress. So, where is Congress on this to change the law? Congressman Adam Schiff told us, a couple hours ago, he's trying to get a halt to all this repayment, trying to get some legislation through Congress where they can either waive or do something about this bonus money, because, I mean, obviously, these soldiers aren't rich guys. They spent the money. They bought their education. They don't have it.

BALDWIN: That's the issue. Maybe they can waive it. What is the Pentagon saying?

GRIFFIN: The Pentagon says exactly that they are also following the rules. They have a process by which individual soldiers can claim hardship or claim some kind of reason for not paying back these bonuses that they were given, but it's on an individual basis. And as that soldier said, have you to hire a lawyer, go through this bureaucratic process. Many say they went through this process and it didn't work for them. Sometimes they had to pay it back, even with a repayment fee on top of all of this -- Brooke?

BALDWIN: Stay on it. I would love to talk to one of these veterans myself. Bring them on the show.

Drew Griffin, thanks very much.

GRIFFIN: Thank you.

BALDWIN: We continue on. Top of the hour. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thank you being with me.

Quick scene in Florida. Donald Trump is set to speak there any moment, St. Augustine, Florida. Mayor Giuliani setting him up. Early voting started today in that critical battleground state of Florida. And as Trump tries to get out the vote there, Hillary Clinton is doing much of the same. Not just for herself, for other Democrats, with polls showing her lead getting larger. Her campaign is looking down- ballot and beyond Election Day.

Behind the scenes, here's what we've learned. We know that Hillary Clinton is reaching out to folks on Capitol Hill, including Republicans, some of whom she worked with as a Senator, thinking through a transition team. Earlier, she and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren appearing on the trail in Manchester, New Hampshire. Senator Warren used Trump's own words against him, specifically when he called Clinton a nasty women in that last presidential debate.