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ANDERSON COOPER 360 DEGREES
New CNN/ORC Polls: Race Tightening in Key States; Trump Wants Early Dem Voters to Switch; Do Voters Like Trump Staying on Script?; Tight Race in Florida as Trump Campaigns in Pensacola; Just the Voters and a Camera. Aired 9-10p ET
Aired November 2, 2016 - 21:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[21:01:02] ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Just past 9:00 p.m. here in Washington, D.C., do you know where your candidates are? With just six days to go, the polls tightening. Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton campaigning day and night. Trump back in Florida, Clinton in Arizona. She's no longer in what a football fan like myself would call prevent defense. I don't know what that means. It's a bit more -- I know nothing about football. I'm sorry.
CNN's Sunlen Serfaty is traveling with the Trump campaign, Brianna Keilar is with the Clinton forces. We begin the hour with Sunlen and Donald Trump.
So, Trump back in Florida. He continued to stay on message today. What did he talk about? What's his focus?
SUNLEN SERFATY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, closing message, Anderson, is really all about Hillary Clinton. He's really trying, from the podium here in his last campaign events here, to define Hillary Clinton for voters on trying to attack her credibility. He's at every turn, bringing up the FBI investigation, bringing up the hack WikiLeaks e-mails and it seems quite clear that he remains dedicated to staying on that message. He is not going off script. He is reading off the teleprompter for most of his campaign rallies.
Clearly the calculation from this Trump campaign in this final stretch is to keep the candidate focused on the message. Don't have him deviate anything say -- anything controversial like he's been known to in the past that might step on that message. And Trump opened up his rally tonight talking about this new found restraint that he's found. Here's what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We've got to be nice and cool, nice and cool. All right, stay on point, Donald, stay on point. No sidetracks. Nice and easy. Nice. Because I've been watching Hillary the last few days and she's totally unhinged.
(END VIDEO CLIP) SERFARTY: And you could almost sense Donald Trump was just remembering from up there on that stage tonight, Anderson, all the things that his campaign advisers were telling him behind the scenes. Don't rock the boat. Stay on message. Don't do anything to disrupt this in the final days. Anderson?
COOPER: He had events all over Florida again today. I mean, the -- Trump and the campaign certainly seemed to understand that is a must- win state for him.
SERFARTY: They do. He had -- he's having four events in 24 hours here in the State of Florida. He'll have one midday tomorrow. Trump has admitted that this is a must-win state for him, so critical to his path to 270. This is his second hometown, he likes to say.
And at these rallies, it seems to me that he is making an extra effort in this final stretch to really make sure that his supporters are turning into actual voters. He regularly polls people from the podium, says have you voted? Are you going to bring someone to the polls with you? So really trying to call out his supporters to actually show up.
That said, he's also dispatching his campaign surrogates. And many family members within the Trump family are out on the campaign trail. I was looking at the schedule today alone. You had Donald Jr. in Michigan, Eric Trump in Ohio, Ivanka Trump hit two states, Michigan and North Carolina. And, of course, tomorrow there will be a big speech by Melania Trump. She'll be giving what campaign advisers say is a warm speech, it's her -- one of her many -- only a few solo speeches of this campaign. We haven't heard from her much since the convention. She'll be giving that speech tomorrow in a suburb of Philadelphia. She'll be talking about her time growing up abroad and campaign advisers say she'll also hit on what she would potentially do as first lady. Anderson?
COOPER: All right, Sunlen, thanks very much.
From the must-win and ultimate toss-up state to the state that always seems just within reach for Democrats until on election day just slips away. That would be Arizona, which has been shifting demographically for quite sometime and has a number of fascinating down ticket races that could also pull the top of the ticket one way or the other. Hillary Clinton is there tonight in Tempe so is CNN's Brianna Keiler.
How confident or not confident the Clinton campaign that they could actually turn Arizona, which is a traditionally red state, blue?
BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I don't know if they're completely confident but they certainly see it as a possibility. They're seeing opportunity here and it would be a very big deal, Anderson because Arizona has not gone for a Democrat since it went for Bill Clinton back in 1996. And that's why Hillary Clinton has had some of her very big name surrogates including the First Lady Michelle Obama here in Arizona trying to convince voters.
[21:05:09] All of her big name surrogates have been just blanketing these battleground states, including the President who is in North Carolina arguing that his legacy is tied to Hillary Clinton. That he needs to pass the baton to her.
And for Hillary Clinton, she was in Las Vegas on her way right now here to the Phoenix area. Her argument has been one that's actually pretty negative. It's not that positive one that she was hoping for when she had a little more breathing room in the polls before Friday when her e-mail controversy exploded again, Anderson.
COOPER: And -- I mean from now until election day, does this blitz continue?
KEILAR: Certainly. So she will be, obviously, heading here from Las Vegas. She's going to North Carolina for a couple stops tomorrow. She'll be in Michigan. She'll be in Ohio on Friday. And you're going to see her do this through election day with three major focuses. One, women, you've seen an ad come out recently from the Clinton campaign highlighting some of the misogynistic comments of Donald Trump over the years.
She's also porting African-American voters. There's going to be a radio ad out highlighting his comments, questioning really the legitimacy of Barack Obama as the first black president by pushing the birther movement and also his characterization of basically all African-Americans living in inner cities when most of them do not.
She's also going to be targeting, as you'll see here in Arizona, Hispanic voters. She has a Spanish language ad out. And she's really counting on her running mate Tim Kaine for this as well. He's going to be here Thursday, tomorrow, he's going to be giving a speech entirely in Spanish as she tries to sway more Hispanic voters her way.
COOPER: All right, Brianna Keilar. Brianna, thanks very much.
Arizona is in flux so are plenty of other states. There's the state of the African-American vote, Democratic and Republican turnout, almost too many other things to count. That said, we do have about 25 million other things to count namely votes, 25 million or so ballots already cast, which already speaks volumes. John King is back to break it down for us.
So we know early voting is more and more popular. Where does it matter the most and who has the edge heading to the final days?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Let's start, Anderson, with that more popular part. About 30 percent of the electorate voted early ballot or absentee ballot four years ago. People have been studying these numbers, the political professors think we might get close to 40 percent, maybe even hit 40 percent this year. So there's a bigger part and more comfortable part of the American political culture and that puts a premium on organizing, in organization by the campaign. So, it will also cost a lot of money to turn people out.
Let's just look at the numbers you mentioned. Oops, let me bring this back over here, bring this up. 24 million -- almost 25 million votes cast so far because this data's from early this morning. 12.4 million votes in the battleground states, in the states we think are going to decide who is the next president of the United States.
Where does it matter most? Well, if you look at this number, this is what -- we had a little debate in the last hour, I'm sure we'll get back into it. This is what concerns Democrats at the moment. I want to emphasize at the moment because they say there are reasons for this. African-American turnout down, 5.3 percent in North Carolina from 2012, down about the same amount in Georgia from 2012, down a little bit smaller amount from Florida. This is a comparison to 2008 data. Also, down a little bit we know in the Cleveland area, in Ohio where it is critical. Now Democrats say there are reasons either later dates for early voting or fewer sites. And they say by the end of the week, look at the numbers. That's important.
We should look at those numbers by the end of the week. But if you're the Clinton campaign, this is a huge part of your early vote turnout. Remember, President Obama lost both elections in ballots cast on election day. The reason he won two big Electoral College landslides, early voting, especially among African-Americans. So this we need to keep an eye on this in the next few days.
COOPER: So can Democrats make up of that deficit? I mean, you said we got to look at the end of the week.
KING: They say they can. You've had a lot of events in churches, you've had a lot of events in other places over the weekend. And as you heard the President in the last hour in North Carolina for example, there are more open sites now, there are more registration sites. So the Democrats think, will they match it exactly? The Clinton campaign doesn't think it can get there exactly because she is not the first African-American president. You don't -- even Barack Obama didn't match in 2012 when he had that first election in 2008. Do they think they can get close enough? Yeah, so then they think they have this. They think -- and we talked about this a bit earlier, they also think they can do better among Latinos. A, because in most states the population is growing and B, because they believe with Trump as the motivating factor and with her history in the community they can get these numbers to go up.
Now, that's pretty modest so far in North Carolina among Latinos, pretty modest up in Georgia, but in a state where this could be the difference, a very, very close race right now. Watch Florida, it's up 4.5 percent in 2008. And we're -- Brianna is in Arizona, it's not just the presidential race, Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County on the ballot running for re-election in Arizona, Democrats and Republicans tell you they see a lot more intensity among Latinos because of that race.
COOPER: As we -- we talked about last hour, a new poll shows Colorado tied. Talk about the significance of that.
KING: Well, let's just go to the map and take a look. Let me switch maps here and come over and go to the electoral map. Colorado has been a trending blue state. It used to be a toss-up state. George W. Bush won Colorado back in his election. It has been trending blue because of the Denver suburbs.
If you look at the map here, let me come back where I was playing with the scenario last time.
[21:09:59] Here is where we are right now in the race. If you take Colorado, which is a tie, if you take it away -- I've got to take this off. I think I'm doing something wrong here. What have I got? There we go. I know what I'm doing. Bring this back here. If you take that down, number one, if Colorado is a tie, that takes Hillary Clinton under 270. That's significant right there. Number two, it just gives Donald Trump more paths when you get there.
We've been talking about the blue states that Donald Trump has to turn. You know, if you turn in New Hampshire, you're getting four. It's great. It's four in the right direction. But it's only four. You want to go to the bigger prizes. So Colorado, it gets you more. If you come this way -- that Colorado is in play. Number one, it tells you something's happening out in the west because our new polls shows him leading in Nevada, shows him leading in Arizona. We'll see what the third party candidate does in Utah. But it tells you something is happening in the west, number one, it also just gives Donald Trump more options.
Now, he's running out of time. Let's be honest. The hill was this way last week for Donald Trump to get to 270. It's more like this. Still a steep hill for Donald Trump, but he has more options and you can make plausible paths. Adding Colorado to that mix, gives you more plausible paths.
COOPER: All right, John, thanks very much. He's going to join the panel coming up.
Kayleigh, Corey, I mean, where do you want to see Donald Trump focusing resources, focusing, you know, his own presence in these coming days?
KAYLEIGH MCENANY, TRUMP SUPPORTER: I want to see him focus where he is now, these blue states that need to be turned red. Because as I mentioned, he needs to be perfect, he's got to win Florida, has to win Ohio, has to keep North Carolina and I think he will.
And I think in many polls, he's leading in those states. But he has to flip a leaning blue state red. That means Pennsylvania, that means Michigan, that means Wisconsin, that means New Hampshire. Just one of those he needs to flip. So what he is doing now, pulling resources into Michigan, going to these states, that's very good. I think he's taking right path.
COREY LEWANDOWSKI, FORMER TRUMP CAMPAIGN MANAGER: And I think if you look at the Clinton campaign and where they're spending their resources, right, if all of these surrogates going to Pennsylvania, they're now concerned about that where they weren't a week ago.
You know, a week ago at this time where you're talking about the Clinton campaign winning in Texas ...
LEWANDOWSKI: ... winning in Arizona, this is going to be a blowout of epic proportion. We're not seeing that now. What we see is Donald Trump at his campaign. Ivanka Trump is in New Hampshire tomorrow. Donald Trump is in New Hampshire on Friday. Donald Trump is back in New Hampshire on Monday. Barack Obama is in New Hampshire on Monday. It's going to be a battleground state because this could literally come down to one or two electoral vote. And if you factor in the second congressional district in Maine, which Donald Trump is going to win, comes down to one state and that could be Colorado, it could be Michigan, it could be Wisconsin, it could be New Hampshire.
And look, we see the last time there was a close election like this. If Al Gore would have won his home state of Tennessee, he'd be the president of the United States. If he won New Hampshire, he would have been the president of the United States.
COOPER: Paul, let me ask you, though. If -- you know, so much -- Democrats made so much about the heavy hitters and surrogates that Hillary Clinton had. Given all the arguably heavy hitters that she has, why is this race still so close? I mean, the Democrats seem to be saying early on, we got President Obama, Joe Biden, and you got Elizabeth Warren, you got Michelle Obama, they're all wildly popular and yet -- I mean, is she that bad a candidate that even with all these surrogates it's still ...
PAUL BEGALA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Hillary is now actually in a stronger position on this day of the election than Barack Obama was in the last election.
COOPER: Really? You believe that?
BAGALA: Yes. I know it. I mean, I can do that.
BAKARI SELLERS, CLINTON SUPPORTER: It bears out in fact.
BEGALA: I'm not going with my feelings. I'm going with data. And the data are clear. Hillary Clinton is in a strong position to win. Trump has to pull an inside straight in order to win. But neither side is just sitting pat, right? They're acting on this.
The president of the United States is wildly popular with the folks that Hillary needs. He's going to turn them out.
She does have a greater arsenal. Some of this is called leadership. Bernie Sanders is out there campaigning for Hillary Clinton. None of Trump's opponents are campaigning for him except Chris Christie who's, I think, trying to avoid testifying in court. None of them are because he hasn't been able to unify his party.
MCENANY: Yes, he has.
COOPER: Well, he has Scott Walker.
SELLERS: Can I mention something? BEGALA: Scott Walker. OK. That's two ...
LEWANDOWSKI: Ben Carson is now in the campaign trail.
SELLERS: Can I mention something?
SELLERS: I mean one of these things that we talked about, and John brought it up earlier and we were talking about how the African- American vote is somehow solved. But then you show the increase in Hispanic turnout. In Florida, up until this point, they've had 139 percent increased in Hispanic turnout. 365,000 Hispanic voters have voted more this year than they did in 2012. So when you add those dynamics in, when you're talking about the way that this coalition now looks, you have to begin to talk about these variables.
And when you're talking about Hillary Clinton spending money in Wisconsin, I mean, there's a Senate race there, or Michigan or Pennsylvania, or New Mexico, or Colorado, I mean, what do you want her to do? Take money home with her? She has more money than she knows what to do with. She ...
GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: But you also -- you have to admit it's not just -- a week ago we were talking about her just running up the score and that's not the case anymore. Well, it's not the case anymore. She's playing defense a little bit more.
BEGALA: You and I talked about this.
BEGALA: She was 10 points up and I said no way, this is a dead heat ...
LEWANDOWSKI: The super PAC pulled out of Colorado, the super PAC pulled out of Virginia, right, they said these races had done, all the sudden, you always see ...
COOPER: One at a time.
LEWANDOWSKI: Do you know what's the amazing part is? Is that only in a campaign when you're taking donors' money should you say, well, we shouldn't take it home. How about this? How about you give it back to the people? How about -- you know what Donald Trump does? He uses his own money so he's much more judicious with this. You know what the Democrats do?
[21:15:01] COOPER: Paul, you're the super PAC ... LEWANDOWSKI: They say, hey, guess what, we'll take all the money and we'll spend it even if we don't need to. What you're now saying, I think that's disgusting, to be honest with you. I want to give the people their money back.
KING: Donald Trump did triple the rent on his own campaign and his own building.
KING: Kirsten is happy with this because she does -- she's smarter just tonight.
But look, we do -- yes, we were -- you're -- I'm sorry. Gloria's right. A week ago the Democrats thought that, you know, she could get 358, 360. Even some Republicans were saying that because Trump was having such a problem post to "Access Hollywood". You're right in the sense that once that filters out and Republicans come out. So, we essentially have the Romney-Obama race ...
KING: ... with a couple of states and a little bit different.
COOPER: But do you agree that she's doing better than Obama ...
KING: Yes. On this day, yes, she is.
COOPER: On this day.
KING: Now, we love to talk about "Access Hollywood" tapes, we love to talk about FBI investigations. The truth is in most campaigns states go back to their DNA.
KING: And so, she has a six-point lead now in Wisconsin, now a 12- point lead. President Obama won Wisconsin by six or seven points. She has a six-point lead in Pennsylvania, now at 10-point lead. President Obama won it by six points.
States tend to go back to their DNA at this point in the campaign and that's what we're seeing. Now, there are a couple surprises. Nevada is a surprise. Arizona was a surprise when she was ahead. Now it seems to be going back to normal. Colorado is a surprise if that one poll is right, it's only one poll and that's a tie.
So there are a few surprises out there. But mostly, she's up six in Virginia. That's where she is supposed to be. That's where the Democrat is supposed to be right now. She's up six or seven in Pennsylvania. That's where she is supposed to be. North Carolina and Florida are going to be two by fours to the final day, that's where they're supposed to be.
COOPER: John, you're way too rational and complicated.
LEWANDOWSKI: Iowa is now clearly a Donald Trump place and that's a place where Barack Obama ...
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And Ohio.
LEWANDOWSKI: And you look at Ohio, a state where Donald -- where Barack Obama won twice. I think most polls, the poll of polls say Donald Trump is going to win Ohio. Donald Trump is going to win Iowa. So, if you take the 206 electoral votes that Mitt Romney got and you add Iowa in and you add Ohio in, now you obviously at the battlegrounds of North Carolina and Florida and others.
BORGER: And Utah.
KING: But North Carolina is counted in the 206.
LEWANDOWSKI: It is, but ...
KING: And you have to take those back. That's the problem.
LEWANDOWSKI: ... if you look at that, right, winning Ohio has always been critical for the Republican nominee. It has never been done without that. And what it looks like now with six days to go, Donald Trump is going to win Ohio, and he's going to win Iowa.
KIRSTEN POWERS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: But we already -- Ohio and Iowa, everyone's already knew ...
POWERS: But the point is -- but -- even talking about Hillary campaigning in these places she does need to make sure that her people turn out and that's normal.
And so I don't think we have to say because she's in a state, that that therefore means she's losing it. She's covering all of her bases. And so, I also think that if you look at the averages, as you're always saying, look at the averages. She's up. And she just needs to be up before -- when we go into, you know, game day and -- because she has an operation and he doesn't.
MCENANY: But more important ...
POWERS: Kayleigh, hold on. He hasn't -- and that's going to give you one or two points. And so, if we look at Barack Obama was up one point the day before the election, I mean, so she is still up. So I just think that -- I said give ...
KING: Nationally, he was up one. I think he was down in Ohio.
POWERS: Yeah, give Donald Trump his due. What I mean is, he's been able to close the gap and I agree with Paul that I don't think people who knew what they're talking about ever thought this was going to be a blowout. This is -- everyone's coming home right now.
COOPER: We got to take a quick break. Much more with the panel ahead. We're also looking into whether early voters can change their ballots if they have a change of heart. Donald Trump is certainly encouraging Democrats to do it. Is it even possible or likely? That's next.
Also, busy night in the campaign trail, we'll keep an eye on events going on right now. We'll be right back.
[21:21:57] COOPER: Donald Trump has been encouraging Democrats who cast their ballots early to change their votes. Here's what he said yesterday in Wisconsin.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: This is a message for any Democratic voter who have already cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton and who are having a bad case of buyers remorse, in other words, you want to change your vote. Wisconsin is one of several states where you can change your early ballot if you think you've made a mistake.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: Well, that is true. In a handful of states, early vote are allowed to change their minds, whether it actually ever happens or happens often that's a different matter. Tom Foreman joins me now with the low down. Tom?
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Anderson, let's bring in the map because by our count there are at least seven states where you can get a do over. You can vote again if you wish. Only one vote but you can change it. That is Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Mississippi, down here, and Minnesota as well, although, their deadline passed earlier this week. Generally, pretty simple process. You have to show up in person to do this. You have to nullify your previous vote, which means you have to tell an election official that you officially do not want this counted when election day comes. And then you have to cast a new ballot. In many cases, you have to do that on election day. However, every state has its own little quirks and rules. And I have to tell you, Anderson, it's not really easy to find these rules, especially for a lot of normal voters out there.
COOPER: I -- which brings up the next obvious question. Is this something that actually happens much?
FOREMAN: It sure doesn't seem to be that way. For example, in Wisconsin, we spoke to one of the clerks there in Oshkosh who said that in -- even though their state allows you to change your vote three different times, three times, you can decide how you want to vote and finally come to a conclusion that has never happened in that clerk's experience in that state, ever, that they know of in their particular area. If you go over to Connecticut, same thing, the Secretary of State's Office got curious about this. They started calling around the out of town clerk and said what about your experience? Have you ever seen this? She said that in eight years of covering elections there, she's seen one voter change the vote.
So it is legal, it can be done. But if Donald Trump is counting on some kind of a landslide of votes of people changing over to his side, history says, Anderson, not likely.
COOPER: All right, Tom Foreman. Tom, thanks very much. Back now with the panel. It is interesting -- I mean, first of all, I didn't know that was an option in a number of states but the fact is, why would Donald Trump spend time talking about it if it rarely ever happens?
BORGER: Well, because he can.
POWERS: Because news came out that he thinks he might change people's votes.
POWERS: But the fact of the matter is mort people who show up to vote early know who they're going to vote for. They're not people who are probably going to change their vote.
And the other problem is people don't -- it's hard to get people to the polls one time, let alone getting them twice. And I think that's another think that he faces a problem with, with all his secret Trump voters, right, have to be turned out. And people don't generally -- who typically who don't vote don't typically show up.
[21:25:11] KING: And Donald Trump was talking about Democrats want to change their vote. The worry in the Trump campaign is that a fair amount of Republicans already voted for Clinton. You know, soft Republicans, moderate Republicans, suburban women who were turned off by the "Access Hollywood" tape or the women coming out and making the accusations against Donald Trump to switch over. The Clinton campaign got them to turn out early.
So, are you going to get Democrat to change your vote? I think not. Did Donald Trump -- how many? Who knows? But they lose some Republic votes in early voting who might now say, oh, Obamacare premiums to the FBI investigations. What's the number? I don't know.
COOPER: Although, gosh, I mean there were so many Republicans who, after the "Access Hollywood" tape, seem to be, you know, Chaffetz was saying, oh, look, I just can't do it anymore, I'm out. And now they ...
COOPER: ... changed their mind again.
COOPER: I think Hugh Hewitt also, I think I just recently saying he'd now ...
BORGER: He's voting for him.
COOPER: ... is likely is going to vote for me.
BORGER: He's voting for him.
DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Can I just say -- can we just take a step back to that point and talk about where we are? That the pendulum, whether it's actually in the polls or more importantly in the narrative can swing so aggressively ...
BASH: ... to one side or another depending on where the news is? Because the fundamentals of these candidates are so poor with regard to how people -- what people think of them. It's really remarkable that, you know, that Donald Trump has a horrible few weeks with the "Access Hollywood" tape and then, you know, the issues about women. And the Clinton campaign, people are leaking that there are -- they're going to give some of their money to the Senate races and everybody thinks it's over.
And then boom, now you have another frankly flawed candidate who has her own issues and the focus is on her and things are looking bad for her. It's remarkable how volatile things are. And it's volatile because these two candidates are frankly just not well liked.
COOPER: It's also ...
COOPER: ... that window focuses on one of the candidates. It's not good for them.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They do badly.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Exactly.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They do badly.
COOPER: And that doesn't speak well to either of them.
BORGER: It's the most schizophrenic race I've ever seen because, precisely, because of Dana's point which is that these candidates are so disliked, both of them. So that people flip back and forth because they're -- which one do I like more today, or can I deal with more today, or can I think of as president more today?
And so what Donald Trump is doing is trying, and who can blame him for trying, I'm not so sure, it's really going to work in reality. But reminding people, some of those guys who voted early they may have made mistakes. And so, don't you do that. It's just sort of a way to remind people. KING: And because of all these bouncing balls and flashing lights.
KING: And they're really exciting, bouncing balls and flashing lights. A lot to talk about this dramatic.
KING: I mean, it's dramatic. And it is important some of the character questions have been about the candidates more than about policy. This is not a tax and spending election. This is not even a, you know, military defense strong America election. It's two characters of the candidates which is why I would say you go back to the fundamentals.
If the candidates are bouncing around, you look at the climate, the mood is analytical. Analysis that came out the other day are very reliable predictor, looks at the unemployment rate, looks at the President's approval rating. And they say that based on their model Hillary Clinton will get essentially what Obama got in 2012.
MCENANY: I couldn't agree more about how extraordinary the volatility as in the election. I think you're absolutely correct about that. And I think that's what magnifies what happened Friday. I think the momentum started trending in Donald Trump's direction. Friday we find out about this reopened investigation, whatever you want to call it, it's Hillary Clinton's e-mails. Monday we find out about this white collar department investigation in the FBI into the Clinton foundation that has a lot of tentacles.
And on top of that we see now for the first time in this race more Republicans supporting Trump than Democrats supporting Clinton. That's not before happened in this race. That's in the latest national poll ...
SELLERS: Where are you seeing that?
MCENANY: This is the ABC poll. 87 percent ...
SELLERS: Oh, the ABC poll that had a ...
MCENANY: The ABC poll you were touting last week for Clinton ...
SELLERS: The same one ...
MCENANY: ... 12 points ahead for Donald Trump.
SELLERS: ... I already know that. MCENANY: So, not only that but the enthusiasm is in Donald Trump's direction. That's in ABC poll this morning. I found it incredible Democrats touting in last week when Clinton was 12 points. And now that Donald Trump is favored it's no longer a viable poll.
SELLERS: You can look at all them together. But let me just you a really simple question here. When the FBI information came out and we already -- we got the "Access Hollywood" tapes who were coming at the 13 or 11 women who were accusing Donald Trump of sexual assault, we had the taxes, all of that stuff was baked in. We had the e-mails with Hillary Clinton. I'm really saying baked in and that is -- that we have to bury that phrase, Gloria Borger, after this election, baked into the cake. But how many new voters out there? I mean, we're at a point now where as a candidate, and I just know this from running a few times before, once they what, as a candidate when you're this close to the election date you're not going to get new voters, you're not convincing people to vote for you.
BORGER: It's enthusiasm.
SELLERS: You're getting new voters.
BORGER: You're going to -- fresh voters. You're going to ...
SELLERS: No, you're going to get your voters to the polls.
SELLERS: But that is the goal at this point. We're at 11 days out. The goal is not to convince people to like you or to convince new voters.
COOPER: Corey, do you buy that?
SELLERS: It is to get your voters to the poll.
LEWANDOWSKI: Look, I think you've got to make a closing argument to the American people of why you need to be next president of the United States. And what we saw in this clip earlier with Hillary Clinton is not going high where she says Donald Trump goes low, we go high. What we see is that she's going after Donald Trump and particularly in her paid advertising campaigns because she wants to attack him because she knows this race is very different than what they thought was it was going to be a week ago.
[21:30:15] And what we see Donald Trump doing is talking about Hillary Clinton as well. FBI investigation, WikiLeaks, Clinton Inc., all those things that they don't want to be talking Obamacare premiums. This race is now about ...
KING: They're both going low.
LEWANDOWSKI: That's right. Who is this like the most at the end of the day, right? At end of the day, they're going to go and say, who is this like more than the other? And if you think that honest and trustworthy is the number one fact, Hillary Clinton is in trouble. If you think that you want, you know, the experience issue then Hillary Clinton is going to do well.
COOPER: Paul, you like a low -- you like a ...
SELLERS: I like low too. They go low, we go lower.
BEGALA: Beware of false equivalency. Hillary is the least popular least trusted major party nominee except for Donald Trump. And she's 10 points better than Trump on the negative. It's still awful objectively but the greatest political strategist ever with any young men, every time someone asked him, how do you like your wife? He said, compared to what? How is Hillary? He said, compared to what? She's 10 points better than Trump ...
COOPER: We're going to have more of the panel ahead, we also have more from Henny Youngman, and also we're going to hear from voters in Florida who tried to deal about what they like when Trump is pretty much staying on teleprompt. We'll be right back.
COOPER: Well Donald Trump just wrapped up an event in Pensacola, Florida, where he reminded himself to stay on point. Trump has pretty much stuck to the script in recent days. The question is whether his supporter is in the all important Sunshine State appreciate that. Gary Tuchman spoke with Trump fans in Orlando. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
[21:35:03] UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I got lock her up. We support jail time for Hillary.
GARY TUCHMAN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The items for sale and the items some people here in Orlando are wearing are an active reminder of some of the things Donald Trump has said or alluded to during this campaign.
UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKERS (in unison): Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up.
TRUMP: And as you know ...
TUCHMAN: But as Election Day approaches, Trump appears to be sticking to the script more often.
Do you feel it's a good thing that Donald Trump over the last few days has gotten more diplomatic, more disciplined?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I do. Short answer.
TUCHMAN: And a longer answer?
CAMERON GOODYEAR, TRUMP SUPPORTER: He's getting more refined now.
TUCHMAN: Do you want to see him refined?
GOODYEAR: I like seeing him more refined like he is now. I like being -- without teleprompters, he was kind of a little bit too much.
TUCHMAN: So you think it's good that he is mellower?
GOODYEAR: Yes. I think it's helping him and I think it's bringing in voters that were, I don't know.
TUCHMAN: But meet Brian Manning who wore this t-shirt in honor of Trump.
Would it make you happy if Donald Trump said that during this rally today?
BRIAN MANNING, TRUMP SUPPORTER: It doesn't -- what Donald Trump says is the truth. Not a lot of people like that.
TUCHMAN: Would you think you'd be happy if he said that or do you think that would hurt him (inaudible) went away?
MANNING: That would hurt him. Yeah.
TUCHMAN: You would like to see that?
MANNING: I would like to see that.
TUCHMAN: Indeed, a major reason many people are spending all this time in the hot Florida sun is they like the fact that Donald Trump says what's on his mind. Critics be damned.
TAMBRA NORTH: TRUMP SUPPORTER: I think he should take whatever he build. I like the aggressive part of him and I think he's comes back down to that freedom of speech. Everybody has it, even him as a person.
TUCHMAN: Many Trump supporters say his free wheeling style has emboldened them. These two women say they would cheer if Trump would lead their t-shirts during his rally. We're not reading the front of the shirts because they're too graphic.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: In the back says, Trump that bitch.
TUCHMAN: OK. Now, are you proud to be wearing shirts like that?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Absolutely.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Very.
TUCHMAN: How come?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I support the man. She's corrupt.
TUCHMAN: But that's could be conceived as obscene by a lot of people.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It could be.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It could be.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: But not one person in this line has had one issue with it. Can we hear anything?
UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKERS (in unison): No.
TUCHMAN: And then there are some people here who say Trump has always been disciplined in that message and it is Hillary Clinton who hasn't been.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: All she does is criticize everybody. I mean, she's just nasty. She's not nice. She hates people. We're deplorable. We're in a bad stand.
TUCHMAN: However, almost all the Trump supporters we talked to here do acknowledge he's had stretches where he's been off message. But there is a prevalent belief here that a president Trump within his way would be presidential.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He will be diplomatic, he will be assertive and he will make America great again.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: Gary joins me now. Among of the people you talk to want Trump to stay, you know, off the cuff now on the teleprompter. Do they think he would be off the cuff in the White House if he won the presidency?
TUCHMAN: Not only are they thinking it Anderson, they're counting on it. Many of people at this rally and other rally believe that a Donald Trump became button down if he made it to the Oval Office, he would be very similar to the other men and women who he's battled for the nomination and the presidency over the last 17 months. Anderson?
COOPER: Gary Tuchman. Gary, thanks very much.
Back to the panel. Dana, you have some reporting on this?
BASH: Well, I'm working on a story on this for tomorrow morning for cnn.com. And to that exact point, I was talking to a source -- I talked to several of them but one of the sources close to Donald Trump who I spoke with about this today recalled a conversation that they had. They have with Donald Trump about this, one of the many that he had with Donald Trump, begging him to stay on message over the past many, many months. And the response was, I hear you, I get it but you're wrong because Trump told the source that what his people want to hear from him and what people in general want to hear from him is being real. And that the way he talks makes him different. He said even if that means I'm off the mark sometimes.
COOPER: But it's also interesting, Kirsten, because -- I mean, he has said I think in interviews to people, people have recounted that he has said to them, that he reads a crowd. And he has a very finely tuned antenna of when he is losing a crowd ...
BASH: He's a performer.
COOPER: ... and -- right, that he -- I mean, he wants to entertain the crowd. I'm not using that in a, you know, in ...
POWERS: Well, yeah, and also that I think that he, in his mind, has a strategy. And so, you know, like when I had interviewed him when he first said he would going to make his pivot, you know, to being presidential and I said, well, why haven't you been doing it in the primary? And he said, well, that was intentional because I had all these people that had to beat and I was one of 17 and there's no way to break through.
So I think that, you know, and Corey can certainly speak to what's in his mind more than I can but I think that he has seem to have sort of a strategy that he feels that he understands what people want and how to get from A to B in a way that other people don't.
COOPER: And Corey -- I mean, it always struck me as, particularly early on, when you were there that he -- I mean, it is a strategy that -- is it a strategy that he came up with? That he just instinctively knows what -- how he wants to be? I mean, because I don't think anybody writing a political play book would have said, you know, do this, do this. It seems like a lot of it was just instinct.
[21:40:03] LEWANDOWSKI: Yeah, I think that's right. And I think what you've seen for the last almost two years of this campaign is Donald Trump has had his finger on the pulse of many people in the electorate who have been disenfranchised with the broken Washington D.C. And if you think about the issues that he has talked about from the beginning of this campaign whether it's immigration or bad trade deals or rising debt, right, he has done more as a candidate than most selected officials have done throughout their tenure. He'd done more to raise the issue and say, hey, let's go and re-negotiate our bad trade deals. Let's talk about TPP which Hillary Clinton originally said it is the gold standard. Now has changed her position and said, hey, I don't like that anymore.
Let's talking about the problem we have with illegal immigration. It's not the forefront of the American electorate which it wasn't prior to Donald Trump coming on to the scene.
SELLER: I just think -- it reminds me of the skit that Dave Chappelle used to have on the "Chappelle's Show". It's when keeping it real, goes wrong. And what we've done is we begun to normalize the behavior that Donald Trump has displayed on the campaign thrill. And although it rouse up his audiences, I think that his audiences were a very small percentage of the electorate. I mean, we come up 15 million, 16 million voters during the Republican primary. Now the goal is to get to 60 to 65 million next week.
And so, one of the things that we have to be very, very careful about is we don't need someone who keeps it real in the White House. This is about temperament. This is about the person who was going to lead the country and that's what draws fear from a lot of people not just Democrats but from Republicans as well.
(CROSSTALK) COOPER: But to that argument, a lot of Republicans are coming back to Donald Trump. So ...
SELLERS: Well -- I mean, I think that a lot of Republicans are coming back to Donald Trump and the reason being is it has a lot to do with what happened last Friday. And they were reminded about why they dislike Hillary Clinton so much.
MCENANY: But Bakari, we need -- we don't also want a mannequin candidate. And today, something that was so just interesting to me in the WikiLeaks today is there was a fervent debate back and forth between John Podesta and the Clinton team about whether Hillary Clinton should use the phrase "Yo Mama" to try to get the black vote back. This is a poll tested candidate who focus test (ph), who vigorously debates whether she should use two words. Donald Trump is just himself. He's authentic.
BEGALA: He was himself when he attacked John McCain as a POW. He was himself when he attacked ...
SELLERS: Thank you.
BEGALA: ... the Khan family who sacrificed their son for America's freedom. He was himself when he attacked that very that very lovely Miss Universe. He was himself when he called women all kinds of horrible names. That is the real Donald Trump.
We don't see what's in the Trump e-mails though because somehow ...
MCENANY: He doesn't have e-mail.
BEGALA: ... this cyberterrorism -- his campaign does, Kayleigh, the cyberterrorism has been exclusively targeting the Democrats.
LEWANDOWSKI: The American public continue to believe Donald Trump is more honest and trustworthy than Hillary Clinton. So for all the things that you've said, the American public and every poll indicate is, that Hillary Clinton is not as honest and not as trustworthy and at the end of the day ...
COOPER: It would be interesting though ...
LEWANDOWSKI: ... in the White House ....
COOPER: Yeah, but it would be interesting if Republican e-mails were leaked as well to see ...
LEWANDOWSKI: ... to the Russian government is when Hillary Clinton gave a path (ph) our Uranium to the Russians. That's a fact and she approved that as the secretary of state. COOPER: Well, Donald Trump said ...
SELLERS: Can I just say one point ...
SELLERS: I mean, what we've done is we've weaponized the media. WikiLeaks, there are stolen e-mails. We know that the Russian government is interfering in our elections and for some reason, the Trump campaign wants us to believe that they were hacking in alphabetical order and just stopped after Clinton because somehow they ran out of money. But, no -- I mean, it is tilted. I mean, that is what it is. And it is despicable that we don't have more of a sense of urgency. All of us up here, everyone in the media that a foreign entity is trying to disrupt our election.
LEWANDOWSKI: You know we've learned about the WkiLeaks -- what we have learned is that they have never denied the authenticity of these e-mails, because if they did, they would put up the e-mails. And what we know -- and what we know is that there's a number of people who've been in the media that had been doing something that they shouldn't have been doing that is now been exposed. We see the media bias from multiple reporters who are favoring the Clinton campaign on numerous occasions as a bias to Donald Trump and has exposed what is the cabal of the media and that's what the American people are fired up.
SELLERS: Donald Trump has never, ever, ever spoken out against the fact that a foreign entity is trying to disrupt. He's running for president of the United States.
BEGALA: He not only did not speak out.
COOPER: Paul, and then we going to go.
BEGALA: He not only did not speak out. On July 22nd, he called a press conference asking of a hostile foreign power to commit cyberterrorism against Americans. That's what Donald Trump is.
BASH: That was before the teleprompter.
MCENANY: Democrat strategy, attack Russia when you're caught.
BEGALA: No, I'm attacking Donald Trump.
BEGALA: There's a hostile foreign power to commit crimes against the Americans who have been benefiting from that crime.
COOPER: Just ahead, what Clinton and Trump supporters say about the issues when they are alone with two questions, one camera and no reporter. Let's see that ahead. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COOPER: Hillary Clinton will be speaking shortly now in Tempe, Arizona. The fact that Arizona is even a focus in this final stretch is one of the many surprises in this election.
Tonight a new CNN/ORC poll shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by five points in Arizona, 49 to 44 percent, Garry Johnson at 5 percent and Jill Stein at one. Arizona has voted for a Democratic presidential nominee just once in the last 64 years, Bill Clinton '96, which is to say it is dependably red. But this year, there are signs that it maybe possibly could turn blue. Votes are pouring in. Kyung Lah tonight has more.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KYUNG LAH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Early votes in Arizona now being counted in this glassed off secured room in Maricopa County have removed web cast on multiple cameras to the public. The votes, boxed. Then sealed
On official early vote totals from the Arizona Secretary of State shows as of today, registered Republicans are outpacing Democrats by 6 percentage points. But in 2012 with one week to go, Republicans had an even bigger lead, outpacing Democrats by 10 percent. Mitt Romney won the state by nine points. This reliably red state, now a battleground because of voters like Luz Gamez, a new U.S. citizen, a new Democrat in Arizona.
LUZ GAMEZ, EARLY VOTER: With Trump, I don't trust him. You know, I think he is more doing this for fun or just to be on T.V.
LAH: Millennials like Nicole Crook also voting blue.
Do you feel the state changing?
NICOLE CROOK, EARLY VOTER: I do. I do. I feel a lot of the older people are being a little more liberal and the younger people are having more of a presence.
LAH: Across Arizona, early voting isn't just up, it's way up.
CAROLYN JAGGER, SCOTTSIDE CITY CLERK: Scott Brenner, Christina.
LAH: More than half of all projected ballots have already been cast.
JAGGER: Julie Norwood, Chris, Sam Tober (ph).
LAH: In primary Republican Scottsdale, Arizona, early voters are waiting more than an hour.
JAGGER: This is the busiest. We've never seen early voting like we've seen this time.
[21:50:03] LAH: Never?
LAH: Waiting to vote, Laura White, a lifelong Republican, the face of a changing Arizona.
May I ask, who did you vote for, for president?
LAURA WHITE, EARLY VOTER: I pretty much I'm a registered Republican and I pretty much voted Democratic all the way across. I do. I think Donald Trump is corrupt, and I don't know any other word I had to say. He's part of the problem.
LAH: And we've heard that about Hillary Clinton, as well.
LAH: Yes, we have. Even with the latest Clinton e-mail controversy, it's not enough to flip her back to the GOP. The e-mails did affect Republican Karl Owens who wrote in independent Evan McMullin for president. He is frankly disgusted with 2016.
KARL OWENS, EARLY VOTER: Trust factor with Hillary and Trump. Where do I begin?
LAH: When you hear that Arizona is in play, that Arizona could go blue, what's your reaction?
ROBERT GRAHAM, CHAIR, ARIZONA REPUBLICAN PARTY: My first reaction is it makes you nervous.
LAH: It should. Robert Graham is Arizona's Republican Party chairman. He is watching the early-voting numbers and the smaller GOP spread.
Are you concern about the spread?
GRAHAM: I was a week and a half ago and now, I'm not. We had to turn up the volume a little bit to make sure that we really executed on this great operational structure that we have statewide.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Please vote for Donald J. Trump.
LAH: The state GOP now pulling out all the stops to get out their vote and seeing day-by-day growth in the number of registered Republicans early voting like Blaine Erskine.
BLAINE ERSKINE, EARLY VOTER: I think it's going to be closer than it ever has been but I do think that it will stay red.
LAH: As far as Hillary Clinton being in Arizona ...
GRAHAM: And when they're not spending in other states it gives us opportunities to pick up those other states.
LAH: So, you're saying she's wasting time and money here?
GRAHAM: Absolutely. I wouldn't -- you know, I'm -- I would be happy to take her out to lunch and share with her all the reasons why she should probably go somewhere else.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
LAH: And here's what Arizona's GOP chairman cannot tell us. They know the early vote tally. They know registered Republicans that they're ahead. They don't know how they voted. Did they cross party lines just like the Democrats don't know if registered Democrats are indeed voting for Hillary Clinton. What we can tell you Anderson is that everyone we spoke with, they do feel like for the first time ever, Arizona Democrats are in the game. Anderson?
COOPER: Kyung Lah. Kyung, thanks.
As you've probably seen in the campaign coverage especially at Trump events when we are active sending reporter, producer to interview people can cause a stir. Donald Trump routinely calls the press names some of his animosity rubs off and supporters, it all makes getting unvarnished thoughts from voters that much harder, which is why we tried following kind of eye opening experiment at Trump and Clinton campaigns stops North Carolina recently.
Set up a camera, hand people some questions then leave them alone. Here's how it played out.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: The format was simple, a microphone and two questions. Why are you supporting Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? And why is it important that he or she win? We handed them a sheet of paper with the questions and got out of the way.
Our first stop, outside at Donald Trump rally in Charlotte, North Carolina.
CHRIS O'SHEA, TRUMP SUPPORTER: It's important for him to win because not only was he going to make the country great again, but the other alternative, Hillary Clinton, she's corrupt and she really shouldn't be running for president. She should probably be in jail.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why is it important for him to win? We're killing far too many babies and he certainly is against killing babies. That's one reason I support him.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's important for him to win because if he loses this election, our country's done. It's -- we'll never get it back.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I support Donald Trump for president because America needs a boss. President Trump is going to fire people who don't do their jobs.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If Hillary Clinton is elected, she will continue the same path we've been on for the past eight years. We're already circling the drain and I believe she will take us all the way down.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Donald Trump is going to change America, not like Obama said he would. He's going to actually change it and change it good. Obama changed it all right and he's changed it for the worst.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We just got to get Donald Trump in there to make sure that we have a good Supreme Court, that we defend the Second Amendment, and that we make sure we don't have terrorists coming in the United States.
COOPER: Our next stop, a Hillary Clinton rally at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. And the same two questions, why are you supporting Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, and why is it important that he or she win?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm supporting Hillary Clinton for the president of the United States because I think it's important that we have a president that's going to support all of our families, all of our children and every citizen of the United States and not make the country more divided than it is.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Truly, she is the only and the best choice, not only do we have a lot of stuff on the line right now, jobs on the line, voting rights on the line, criminal justice reform is on the line, and Hillary Clinton is the only person that is going to make sure that we have a future.
[21:55:02] UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We need someone in the White House who knows what they're doing. Hillary is the best person between the two candidates to do that. She qualified with all of her 30 years of experience and will be good for the country.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I am a feminist and I believe she is, too, and it would be such an honor to see a female in the White House.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: People in my generation and younger deserve a female role model that proves that anyone can be president.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's important that Hillary win for the integrity of our country, for our citizens, and to continue the progress of the Obama administration and for our reputation throughout the world.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We also think that there's just no comparison between Hillary and the Republican nominee. He's a megalomaniac and has proved to be a complete nightmare.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: Pretty interesting insight into what both Trump and Clinton supporters are thinking without any reporters present. We heard from dozens more voters. If you want to watch all of them, those clips will be online tomorrow at cnn.com/ac360. We'll be right back.
COOPER: Before we go, a quick programming note about Tuesday. We'll be on basically wall to wall, bringing late election coverage. Tuesday Election Day, all day right here on CNN.
[22:00:01] That does it for us tonight. Thanks for watching. "CNN TONIGHT" with Don Lemon starts right now.