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Last-Minute Scramble for Votes as Polls tighten; 30 Million Across Country Cast Early Ballots; Unemployment Dips to 4.9% Days Before Election; Ground Game Key in Final Days of Race; Pence Campaigns in Michigan; . Aired 10-10:30a ET

Aired November 4, 2016 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[10:00:16]

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Both campaigns are sending out their surrogates for a last minute push, Clinton's camp zeroing in on places like North Carolina and Colorado and Donald Trump going all-in on toss-ups like New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. We are covering all the angles with our team of political reporters. But let's begin with CNN's senior Washington correspondent Jeff Zeleny. Hi, Jeff.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol. Well, Hillary Clinton is going to be setting off for Pittsburgh in a few moments here. You can see her campaign plane warming up behind me. She's going to go to Pittsburgh to try and focus on the economy, of course, so critical in Western Pennsylvania.

Now, Pennsylvania is a state that Democrats have won in the last six presidential campaigns but Donald Trump has been campaigning hard in Pennsylvania. He believes that his message to working class voters is one that will actually resonate.

So Hillary Clinton I'm told today is going to focus on the economy, specifically women in the economy. She's going to draw a correlation between how she says she understands their fight, what they go through but she's also still trying to disqualify Donald Trump. This is how she did it yesterday in North Carolina.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If Donald Trump were to win this election, we would have a Commander-in-Chief who is completely out of his depth and whose ideas are incredibly dangerous, someone who wants more countries to have nuclear weapons and could easily insult a foreign leader. And start a real war instead of just a Twitter war.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: Now, Carol, this is not exactly how she planned to close out her campaign. She was doing a more optimistic message but about a week ago, right around now, that FBI bombshell changed everything for the Clinton campaign so she now is drawing more distinctions and contrasts with him to try and get a command of this race once again, Carol. But there's no question she is still leading narrowly nationally but in many battleground states it's much closer than they would like it to be.

COSTELLO: Yes. And you can -- I mean, she's going to make stops in Detroit and Cleveland, right? And those were pretty Democratic places.

ZELENY: I mean, Carol, you know, certainly Cleveland, she's going there three times in a week span. That is all about getting out the African-American vote, getting out the core Democratic vote. Of course, Cleveland is about a third of the voting population of Ohio, the Cleveland media market is. But the number of times she's going there is so interesting.

But Detroit as well, even more interesting. Michigan like Pennsylvania is a state for the last six presidential elections has gone Democratic. The thought that she would be going to Detroit to rally voters four days before the election, no one would have certainly predicted that inside her campaign. She was talking about expanding and reaching out to Republicans. Not today, Carol. It's all about rallying Democrats, trying to fire them up before Election Day on Tuesday.

COSTELLO: All right, Jeff Zeleny reporting live from White Plains, New York. Thank you. Donald Trump starts his day in the toss-up state of New Hampshire. That race could be anybody's game. A new CNN Poll of Polls shows Clinton with a two point advantage. Let's bring in Jason Carroll. He is live there. Good morning.

JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, so tight here in the state of New Hampshire, Carol. Clinton at 43 percent, Trump at 41 percent. Not only tight here but tight in Florida where we were yesterday, tight in Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign sees this as an encouraging sign. They feel as though they have got the momentum behind them.

So going forward, what is the strategy here? It's two-fold. It's first of all, stay on message and hit these battleground states as much as you can. For example, today Trump has his surrogates out in force, both of his sons campaigning for him today. Trump for his part, he's going to be making seven stops. Let's just take a look at the map here. So you can see what he's going to be doing.

Here in New Hampshire obviously he's also going to be in Ohio, Pennsylvania. They think they have a real shot at taking that state. Tomorrow, he's going to be back in the state of Florida, again in North Carolina. He will be in Nevada as well. Sunday, take a look. He will be in Iowa and again in North Carolina. Monday, back in New Hampshire where we are now. Second part of this, Carol, as I said is also for Trump, the candidate himself, to stay on message. For the most part he's been doing that. Yesterday in North Carolina, going after Hillary Clinton saying she's unfit to be Commander-in-Chief.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know, when I look at these great admirals and these great generals and these great Medal of Honor recipients behind me, to think of her being their boss? I don't think so. And you know they are incredible patriots. They would never say a thing. But I know what they're thinking. It's not for them, believe me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARROLL: So again, expect Trump to keep stepping up his attacks on Hillary Clinton, expect the Trump campaign to keep going after these battleground states. But Carol, at the end of the day, what the Trump camp has to do, is they have to flip a blue state in order to get to that

[10:05:16] magical number of 270, perhaps in Wisconsin, perhaps in Michigan. Somewhere that's blue. It's got to go red. Carol?

COSTELLO: All right, Jason Carroll reporting live for us this morning. Thank you.

For Clinton or Trump to make it to 270, -- they are going to need a win in the swing states. CNN politics executive editor Mark Preston has a look at two key battleground states, North Carolina and Florida. Here's Mark.

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Four days until Election Day, Carol. But we have already seen nearly 31 million people across 38 states have cast their ballots. But two states I want to highlight today, is Florida and North Carolina. They are key to the presidency and winning the presidency.

Let's start with Florida. Right now in Florida, more than 4.2 million people have cast their ballots. And when we look at who is in the lead right now, Republicans have about a 16,000 ballot returned edge which isn't very large but if you compare it to 2008, Democrats were in the lead and they were in the lead by 73,000 ballots returned, so not good news for Democrats. Good news for Republicans.

Let's look at the racial demographics of who is participating right now. As you see, white participation about 71 percent, African- American participation 12.3 percent, Hispanic participation 14.1 percent. Let's compare that to 2008. And look at how much that has increased just in the raw vote totals, about a million. With white voters but the African-American number right here is troubling for Democrats. Even though we have seen an increase in the raw number, we have seen a decrease in the actual participation when it comes to the percentage of the vote by about 3 percent. Not good news for Democrats. Though the bright spot is the Hispanic participation really has blossomed right now. And in fact, just the raw numbers alone, we are seeing Hispanic participation at more than 336,000 ballots returned in 2016 than it was in 2008.

Let's go to North Carolina right now. Two million people have participated in there. Who is in the lead right now when it comes to ballots returned? Well, Democrats have a 243,000 ballot returned advantage. However, when you look at what happened in 2012, their lead was at 307,000 so not great numbers right there when you do the comparative for Democrats.

Let's go into the racial breakdown, Carol. Look at the participation rate right now. Specifically, also get African-Americans at 22.7 percent participating in the early vote, Hispanics at 1.8 percent. If we go back to 2012, look at that number right there, 22.7 percent to 28 percent, the drop-off more than five percentage points.

So, if you're wondering why Barack Obama was there earlier this week in North Carolina, and why he's going to be there in a couple of hours again, it's because of this column right here, North Carolina and Florida, Carol, two key battleground states. The early vote continues across the country.

COSTELLO: All right. Mark Preston thanks. With me now to talk about this and more, Rebecca Berg, national political reporter for "Real Clear Politics," and Lynn Sweet, Washington bureau chief of the "Chicago Sun-Times." Welcome to both of you.

LYNN SWEET, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF "CHICAGO SUN-TIMES": Good morning.

REBECCA BERG, NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER "REAL CLEAR POLITICS": Thank you Carol.

COSTELLO: So the big jobs report came out this morning around 8:30. It's the last jobs report before the election. It's said that 161,000 jobs were created. - The unemployment rate edged lower while wages ticked higher. Our chief business correspondent Christine Romans says we are seeing solid jobs growth even as many Americans say the country is on the wrong track. And Donald Trump just put out a press release about this jobs report and he calls it disastrous. Well, it's really not disastrous, Lynn. But maybe --

SWEET: It is not.

COSTELLO: It is not disastrous. The economy continues to grow, right?

SWEET: It does, and one of the big benchmarks of the 2012 campaign was on the first Friday of every month in the mitt Romney/Barack Obama campaign, Carol. As you remember, was this jobs report. And it was a big deal to get below 8 percent. OK? Today, we are at 4.9 percent. That is all happening under President Barack Obama's watch.

You can't say that a decrease is -- I know what you can say, but the facts are that using this same benchmark, the numbers are better. Now, whether or not, though, this is something that will turn the tide into these battleground states that we are talking about, it's not clear because as we are also talking about so many of these votes are being banked early.

COSTELLO: Yes. That's true. But still, Rebecca, usually it's all about the economy, right? So if the economy is getting better, you would think it would benefit the candidate who supports the policies of the president making that happen but that may not hold true this year. BERG: That's right. And it's really interesting, because even since Donald Trump has announced his candidacy, Carol, millions of jobs have been created in this country. And as you mentioned,

[10:10:16] wages have gone up. The general economic outlook looks much better, even just during the course of this campaign. But the fact of the matter is that many people also still feel that they are hurting in this economy.

Donald Trump has appealed to a segment of America, working class white voters, many of whom their jobs have moved overseas. The economies in their towns in rural areas are changing. We are seeing a great deal of urbanization across the country. And so rural areas are not doing as well as they once did in many places. And so these are the people who are still hurting in this economy. And these are the people who Donald Trump has successfully appealed to in this election. And so, you kind of have this problem of two Americas at this point. One America -- and this is something that Democrats talk about as well, one America that still feels that they are being left behind, that they are not seeing this growth personally themselves, and another America that is experiencing this growth.

COSTELLO: So the polls are continuing to tighten, Lynn. So what do you attribute that? Is it the FBI and its investigation of these e- mails or is it just these vicious attacks that are being lobbed against both candidates? What is it?

SWEET: Well, I think the announcement of the FBI, Carol, is the reason that Hillary Clinton's momentum was just -- came to a screeching halt last week. Most of the polls in the battleground states have Clinton and Trump in a statistical tie. So it might make you feel good, I suppose, to look at it and say I'm a point or two ahead. But political professionals know that a tie is a tie on these polls.

And I think you could attribute everything that's happening in this last week in the Clinton campaign from the decisions where the candidate herself goes, to where the surrogates go to the news of the FBI report. And the only thing that could be worse, I suppose for her, is if there's another revelation coming at the last minute over the weekend. There's just not a lot of time left to seize on anything that isn't very big. A good jobs report as we have been talking about is hard to translate quickly in the way a big negative such as the FBI report can be translated in the closing days.

COSTELLO: Because it does seem, Rebecca, like the Democrats are freaking out, right? Surrogates all over the place, right, high- powered surrogates all in one place. And you would think that they would be the best cheerleaders ever. Are they, though?

BERG: I mean, they are absolutely panicking and certainly, Hillary Clinton still has the broader path to 270 electoral votes. She has an advantage, still. And that's worth remembering even as this race tightens. But with Democrats are seeing is that their margin for error in this race is getting much smaller. I was speaking with a Republican operative up in New Hampshire who has access to the internal polling up there. That's a state where Jason Carroll was noting, the polls are tightening there. And this is now a battleground whereas just a few days ago, few weeks ago, leaning for Democrats. And what they are saying up there is that Republicans are coming home to the Trump campaign. Three weeks ago, less than 70 percent of Republicans in New Hampshire based on this internal polling were behind Donald Trump. Now it is more than 80 percent of Republicans who are supporting him up there and that's exactly why it's tightening.

The FBI and Comey's letter, within the past week, that is absolutely what's driving this. It reminded Republicans of why they dislike Hillary Clinton, how wary they are of her and suddenly Donald Trump is the lesser of two evils for them.

COSTELLO: All right. I have to leave it there. Rebecca Berg, Lynn Sweet, thanks to both of you.

Still to come in the "Newsroom," candidates focusing on turnout but does it all come down to these two words, ground game?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:17:44] COSTELLO: Early voting is winding down across the country and in Miami, Florida, President Obama wasn't giving the crowd any excuses not to get it done.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Vote early. If you are registered, you can vote right now, at any early voting location. In fact, there's one just ten minutes away at the International Mall Branch Library.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Rallies with the president and star-studded concerts can certainly help but the candidates know campaigns can be won and lost by the use of a good ground game. So let's talk about that. I'm joined by former Ted Cruz communications director and CNN political commentator, Alice Stewart, along with Jonathan Wilson-Hartgrove, an organizer with Moral March to the Polls. And Jonathan, by the way, is not endorsing a particular candidate. Welcome to both of you.

ALICE STEWART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR AND FORMER COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR FOR TED CRUZ: Thanks for having us.

COSTELLO: I can't wait to have this conversation, Alice, because I think when we say ground game, a lot of people don't know exactly what that means. I mean, I think of football, right, with a good running back and running game but that's not exactly what that is. So can you explain what a ground game is?

STEWART: Well, just like football, presidential campaign can be won or lost based on a good ground game. And the key to this is getting out there early and identifying voters through good data and good voter contact early on and establishing good door-to-door operations, good phone operations and also as well, identifying voters and getting out good mail pieces to them.

And what we're seeing in key states, Iowa particularly for the Republican side, seeing good tremendous numbers. They have knocked on tens of thousands of doors in the past few days and will continue to do so, hundreds of thousands as we get through Election Day and that's critical.

Now, at the same time, I will say that the Clinton campaign has been working hard. They do have a great ground game and worked on it for many, many months but at this stage of the game, it's about motivating numbers, it's not about persuading, it's not about getting the right message to the voters at this time. It's about persuading them, motiving them to get out and vote. And that's what we are seeing with Donald Trump as well as other key surrogates from the Republican side. And we are seeing good numbers with early voting and absentee voting on the Republican side.

COSTELLO: So Jonathan, what is your part of the ground game? What specifically do you do?

JONATHAN WILSON-HARTGROVE, ORGANIZER MORAL MARCH TO THE POLLS: Well, for the ground game here in North Carolina, the ground has certainly been shaped by legislation

[10:20:16] over the last few years. The NAACP here in North Carolina has been fighting voter suppression since a bill was passed in 2013. And so we celebrated a victory this summer, a victory that expanded early voting and made it possible for people to vote without a photo I.D. and so we have been educating people about that and mobilizing them, making a voting plan and getting folks to the polls.

COSTELLO: So how specifically do you do that, Jonathan? Do you go door-to-door and then people invite you in and say hey, let's talk about this divisive election?

WILSON-HARTGROVE: Well, we are a justice organization so we have been building a moral fusion coalition in North Carolina of people, both Republican, Democrat and independent, who really want to see issues that affect not only African-Americans but all marginalized people and poor people in our state.

And so that coalition has many partners that have committed to educating people on the minister in our congregations. We are educating people about the voting laws. We have a, souls to the polls program where on the two Sundays of early voting, people literally come together to worship and then go together to march to the polls.

This has been All Saints Day in the church. And on All Saints Day, we remember the martyrs, those who died and certainly in the 20th century, people died for the right to vote, Jimmie Lee Jackson and Viola Liuzzo, black and white folks willing to lay down their lives so the people could vote. We really believe that the attempts to suppress the vote are an offense to those people's sacrifice. And so we are doing all that we can to make people aware of their right to vote and to get them out to do it.

COSTELLO: Alice, how important are people like Jonathan to the Democratic process?

STEWART: I think it' critical to encourage voters of all, Republican or Democrat, to get out and vote. It's such an important right. And to his idea about specific issues, that's one thing that the Trump campaign has done very well with and both sides. But specifically, being able to identify voters based on the issues they are concerned with, whether it is second amendment rights, whether it's life, whether it's marriage, whatever the key issue. They are able to identify that while they are going door-to-door and being able to message exactly what these voters want to hear and how Donald Trump will be able to run as president and be president based on the issues they are concerned with.

A lot of people aren't familiar with the issues. And so the more you can educate them on the issues and where the candidates stand, you are going to be able to persuade them to get to the polls and that's the key issue. It's not a secret that both of these candidates don't have high favorability. They are not very well liked. And to be honest, neither one of them are very trustworthy. So it's a matter of persuading them on the issues that are important to them and motivating them to get out and vote. And that's the key these last few days.

COSTELLO: Jonathan, we have heard that voters aren't so enthusiastic especially in early voting in North Carolina. What are you seeing?

WILSON-HARTGROVE: Well, I think there's a great deal of enthusiasm. Part of the challenge here in North Carolina is that, though we did win back days of early voting, there has been continued attempt to suppress the vote. And so our Board of Elections here have certainly, for the first seven days, reduced the number of sites and moved sites away from HBCU campuses, move sites away from African-American communities where people have traditionally voted in a very intentional way to suppress certain votes.

This was thoroughly litigated in the courts over the last three years and the court was absolutely clear that African-Americans have been targeted with as they said, almost surgical precision as well as being clear that to use party as a proxy for race is itself discriminatory. We have a lot of things that are being debated. Some things have been decided. What we are trying to say is that voting rights are a moral issue, not a left or right issue but a right or wrong issue. And we want to see people of all parties stand against this voter suppression that's happening here in North Carolina and in other places.

COSTELLO: So Alice, I have to ask this question of you, what's wrong with making voting as easy as possible for all Americans?

STEWART: I think the key with this is to make sure that it is easy but it's also free and fair. Fair is the key. I don't believe the election process is rigged. I don't believe it's crooked. I don't believe there are efforts to suppress the votes but I do think that -- I was Deputy Secretary of State in Arkansas. And I know how seriously each and every Secretary of State in this country takes their responsibility to run free and fair elections and that's the key, is to make sure that they are free and easy to vote but also that they are fair. And I think that's the key. That's what our right to vote is so critical and so important but at the same time, it has to be done in a fair way.

[10:25:16] And that's what these efforts to make sure whether we are talking about specific hours of the polls or whether we are talking about checking voter I.D., it's all-in an effort to make free and fair elections which are so critical. Especially this election because we always say every election is the most important one but I think so much is on the line during this election this year. And I think the importance of making sure that everything goes above reproach, that's the goal of Secretary of States around the country, certainly the campaigns and the candidates and every voter wants the same thing.

COSTELLO: All right. I have to leave it there. Alice Stewart, Jonathan Wilson-Hartgrove, thanks for your efforts. I appreciate you both being here.

STEWART: Thank you.

COSTELLO: All right. I want to take you out live to Lancing, Michigan, right now. You see Mike Pence, Mr. Trump's running mate, campaigning there, right now. Mr. Trump has to flip at least one blue state, concentrating efforts in Michigan. Perhaps he will do that. He needs to do that in order to win the election. We will keep you posted.

A reminder for you, Election Day 2016, we will have all day coverage Tuesday, right here on CNN.

Coming up in the "Newsroom," she's a Democrat, he's a Republican, and a very divisive election. So how the heck does that work?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)