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Democrats Take The House, GOP Holds The Senate; CNN Reality Check: Voters Weigh In On Key Ballot Initiatives; Late-Night Laughs: Laughing All The Way To The Voting Booth. Aired 5:30-6a ET

Aired November 7, 2018 - 05:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[05:30:00] DAVID GREGORY, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST, AUTHOR, "HOW'S YOUR FAITH?": I think a lot of Republicans want it off the table, too. I'm not holding my breath on that.

But I always think there's an opportunity because there's -- they both have reasons to want this issue off the table before 2020.

ALICE STEWART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, FORMER COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR FOR TED CRUZ, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: But the question is did Democrats want DACA more or does the president want the wall more? So it's whether they come together and --

GREGORY: Yes.

STEWART: -- decide who wants what.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Who is going to run the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives, Jeff?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: At this point, you have to give an edge to Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker and potentially, current speaker or future speaker. There's no one who holds sway over as much of the House Democrats as she does.

She raised money. She's largely responsible for this. She's also responsible for some of the Democrats losing out there.

But until there's a center of gravity around someone else, either from the California delegation or the CBC -- if she loses support from there she's in trouble. But as of now, you have to say, I think, that she is the most likely next speaker. She's been there before, she knows how this works, and she has a big edge.

BERMAN: She can count votes. I mean, she's really one of the few people left in Washington who can count votes.

ZELENY: Without a doubt.

GREGORY: It's not a rush to a new tomorrow --

BERMAN: No.

GREGORY: -- in either the Senate of the House. But 100 women in the House next -- in the next Congress, which has never happened before. ZELENY: It depends if there's a center of gravity --

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: That's very notable.

ZELENY: -- around anyone.

CAMEROTA: All right, panel, thank you very much.

BERMAN: So, the candidates, they were not the only thing on the ballot. Initiatives on marijuana, redistricting, even voting rights for felons.

A CNN "Reality Check," next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:35:48] BERMAN: Ballot initiatives were made for marijuana and there were big decisions overnight on that front.

John Avlon here with a "Reality Check" on all the ballot issues.

JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: That's the only one you care about, isn't it?

BERMAN: I feel like it's the only one you hear about. Every two years marijuana is on the ballot again.

AVLON: And the wisdom of the people overrides their state legislatures again and again on this.

BERMAN: I'm not taking a position, I'm just saying it's there.

AVLON: Well, it's an interesting result we had this year.

So, yes, marijuana legalization but also, felon voting rights, redistricting reform -- those are just some of the ballot initiatives that passed last night in election 2018. And if you look at the whole spectrum of 158 statewide ballots you get the sense that America is far more interesting and evolving than the old red state-blue state stereotype would suggest.

So let's start here. The swing state of Michigan just legalized recreational marijuana while conservative Utah and Missouri voted to allow medical marijuana. But while those states are singing Peter Tosh's "Legalize It" -- Ali, that was for you --

CAMEROTA: Thank you.

AVLON: -- voters in North Dakota echoed Merle Haggard in "Okie From Muskogee." They don't smoke marijuana in Dakota. They just turned down a legalization measure by almost 20 points.

Now, if you're concerned about the polarization of American politics, voters in Michigan, Colorado, and Missouri approved nonpartisan, independent redistricting commissions which will effectively end the rigged system of redistricting and lead to more competitive general elections for Congress and more representative results.

Now, the fight for voting rights was a big theme this year and voters in Florida decided to restore voting rights to felons who've served their time, going forward.

Nevada backed automatic voter registration. Maryland approved same- day voter registration.

Now, on the flipside, in the south, Arkansas and North Carolina backed requirements to show voter I.D. at the polls.

Now we all know polls said health care was issue number one for voters this year and citizens of Idaho, Nebraska, and Utah require -- are now requiring their conservative states to accept Obamacare's Medicaid expansion. It's a big deal.

Massachusetts voters refused to roll back transgender rights after passage of a 2016 bill that was backed by the state's now-reelected Republican Gov. Charlie Baker.

And, Alabama backed a symbolic proposal to allow the Ten Commandments to be posted in public spaces, which will almost certainly face legal challenges while also -- and asserting the rights of anti-abortion principles and quote "the rights of unborn children in the state constitution."

Now, a crime victims' rights proposal known as Marcy's Law -- controversial because it adds costs complexity to legal proceedings, passed in six states throughout the south and west.

So, that's your "Reality Check."

CAMEROTA: All right. I mean, I really like Sublime's song, "I Smoke Two Joints in the Morning."

AVLON: Really? You want Sublime on that one?

CAMEROTA: Yes, yes, yes.

BERMAN: The song.

CAMEROTA: The song, please.

AVLON: Just -- it's, you know --

CAMEROTA: Just the song.

All right. Thank you very much.

What were the biggest surprises last night and how about those polls? Did they reflect reality? All of that coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:42:39] CAMEROTA: All right, everyone. If you are just waking up, here are the numbers at the moment. Democrats take control of the House -- 222 that they have.

Republicans have expanded their hold on the Senate. They are, what, at 51 right now?

BERMAN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: OK.

There were some unexpected results that could tell us what's in store for 2020.

Let's bring in CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein, and "CNN POLITICS" senior writer and analyst Harry Enten.

Before we get to what surprises there were --

BERMAN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: -- and what's in store for 2020, we have to talk about the polls.

Harry, every morning we listened to your forecast. Were -- was your forecast accurate? Has it played out accurately?

HARRY ENTEN, SENIOR WRITER AND ANALYST, CNN POLITICS: It seems to me that it did. Our final forecast had Democrats winning either 227 seats on a median or 229 seats on the average. And right now, I believe that they'll probably pick up about 229 seats in the House of Representatives.

And let me tell you, I don't -- I'm not a soothsayer, I don't go to Miss Cleo. I based my forecast on the polls, and so the polls were pretty good if my forecast was pretty good.

BERMAN: You stuck it -- stuck the landing on the polls completely. There are going to be people who say oh my God, the polls were wrong, the polls were wrong. Harry, you told us what was going to happen -- it happened.

CAMEROTA: Maybe you are Miss Cleo.

ENTEN: Maybe I am.

BERMAN: Ron Brownstein, I want to go to you, though --

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes.

BERMAN: -- because I want to know why --

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: -- this happened the way -- explain to me this divergence where --

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

BERMAN: -- Democrats can --

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

BERMAN: -- sweep into the House with -- they've got a -- you know, something like a blue wave.

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

BERMAN: And the Republicans can pick up the --

BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely, and people kind of look at this and say how could these things both happen at the same time. And the answer is that we have two divergent Americas that rendered utterly antithetical verdicts on the first few years of the Trump presidency.

And the key to it -- the key to the divergent result last night is this gap that we've been talking about. The widening gap between the voting preferences of whites with a college education and whites without a college education.

In the exit poll yesterday -- the national exit poll -- Democrats won 53 percent of college-educated, white voters, and that was the key to their victory in suburban districts, literally from coast to coast. I mean, we're talking New Jersey, Philadelphia, Detroit, Chicago, Minneapolis --

BERMAN: Oklahoma.

BROWNSTEIN: -- Des Moines, Oklahoma, Charleston -- you know, Denver, Tucson.

But not only those -- places like Atlanta, where they apparently won a seat. And not to mention Houston and Dallas. The entire urban -- kind of the diverse urban metros moved significantly against the Republicans last night.

On the other hand -- on the other hand, if you look at the exit poll -- the national exit poll -- Republicans won 61 percent, again, of whites without a college education. They also ran even higher than that among evangelical whites, and they ran very well among rural whites.

[05:45:08] And so when you look at the Senate map, particularly those interior states of Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana, that -- there -- that's where those voters are.

So you now have, I think, these two Americas that have utterly different verdicts on what Donald Trump means for the country.

Utterly different verdicts about what they -- where they want to see the country going. How they feel about the big demographic cultural and economic changes that we're living through. And they are now, I think, more separated and more starkly aligned than ever.

CAMEROTA: And to give you your due, this is what you predicted --

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: -- as well. You have been telling us every time you come on NEW DAY to look for that, in terms of the college education versus non-college white voters.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: So you got that right as well.

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

CAMEROTA: So let's talk about what surprised you both. Since you got a lot right, what surprised you last night?

ENTEN: Well, I think the fact was that even though the polls were pretty good, where we saw the errors -- they tended to overwhelmingly be in those states that had a lot of white voters without a college degree.

So look at states like Missouri, look at states like Indiana, look at states like West Virginia and Montana. Although we got the forecast right in West Virginia and Montana, it ended up being a lot more Republican-leaning than we thought. And then in Missouri and Indiana, it flipped the races the other way.

BERMAN: Well, that's the thing. It's not a shock that the Democrats lost in Missouri and Indiana --

ENTEN: Right, right.

BERMAN: -- but the margins seem to be much bigger.

BROWNSTEIN: Well look, it is a modern world. I mean, you're talking about in all of those states the Republicans ran about 60 percent among whites without a college degree.

That is what Trump has done. The trade Trump is imposing on the party, we see it very clearly. Strong with rural, white, blue-collar, and evangelical whites, but the cost in the suburbs became much more real yesterday than it has been before.

BERMAN: Is there a 2020 implication in that last statement you made?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. So it's kind of interesting for 2020.

First of all, the three states that made Trump president -- the three that he dislodged from the blue wall -- that I coined in 2009 -- were Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Democrats, yesterday, won the governor and a Senate race in each of them. And though they didn't blow off the doors among these working- class whites, they got back into the 40s which is really all they have to do to win them.

And on the other hand, I would kind of offer a slightly dissenting view. The Sun Belt path, while not fully realized and you see the obstacles, was also open.

I mean, when was -- Democrats got to 48 or 49 percent, at least, in Georgia, Texas, and Arizona. They probably -- Harry, when was the last time -- the last Democrat who got to 48 percent in any of those states, I'm betting was Janet Napolitano in 2006.

And just to underscore the point Alisyn, Beto O'Rourke got more votes yesterday than Hillary Clinton did in the 2016 presidential race, which is --

CAMEROTA: That's really notable.

BROWNSTEIN: -- a pretty remarkable statement in an off year.

So, I mean, they're still uphill but I don't think you can look at the results in those states and say Republicans can entirely put them in the bank.

So clearly, the first option is the Rust Belt where Democrats have shown they've kind of crawled off the map. But I think there's a Sun Belt path that is at least open to discussion with the right nominee.

BERMAN: Always going to be out there. It is --

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, the mirage.

BERMAN: There's a future and always will be --

BROWNSTEIN: It's the mirage.

BERMAN: -- as Ron Brownstein says.

CAMEROTA: Harry Enten, Ron Brownstein, thank you both very much.

BERMAN: And you nailed it. Don't sell yourself short.

ENTEN: I try not to but it's my Jewish way --

BERMAN: All right.

ENTEN: -- you know -- my Jewish mother. I'm just always trying to please.

BERMAN: All right, excellent. Thank you, guys, very, very much.

Most of the late-night comics -- they were live for the midterm elections. Their take on the big vote -- that's next.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JIMMY KIMMEL, ABC HOST, "JIMMY KIMMEL LIVE!": We've even got a Steffi Graf, and I'm warning you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [05:52:32] CAMEROTA: All right.

So many of the late-night hosts stayed up late to do live shows last night. Here are your "Late-Night Laughs."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

STEPHEN COLBERT, CBS HOST, "THE LATE SHOW WITH STEPHEN COLBERT": The Democrats have taken control of half of one of the three branches of government. All the GOP has is the other half of Congress, the Supreme Court, and a president who does whatever he wants.

So, so far, tonight's feeling is uh, uh, uh, yes. All, all yes.

KIMMEL: And no matter what the outcome, whether you're a Republican or Democrat, I think we can all agree that the big loser this year is all of our Thanksgiving dinners. Thanksgiving, this year, is ruined.

TREVOR NOAH, COMEDY CENTRAL HOST, "THE DAILY SHOW WITH TREVOR NOAH": The results just wouldn't come in, right -- the whole day. Like for the last few hours it has been too close to call, too early to call. It's like we texted America, "you up?" and then all we could see is that little typing bubble.

KIMMEL: Most of us use a highly-advanced smart phone to learn about the candidates, to locate our polling places. We use an app to call an Uber, to navigate through traffic and drive us right to the door in the most efficient way possible.

And then, we fill out a scantron in an old lady's garage and they give you a sticker. People do love those stickers. Oh, everyone's very proud of their stickers.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: People do -- people love the stickers.

CAMEROTA: Well, yes, and he makes a point about how antiquated it is. But the other point is that I don't know that we all trust technology at this point --

BERMAN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: -- and online things. So that's where we're --

BERMAN: They were so freaking proud they stayed up and did live shows. I don't think I've slept since, you know, 2003 at this point. I can't remember the last time I slept.

CAMEROTA: You're delirious, basically.

BERMAN: There's a little bit of that.

CAMEROTA: We should toss.

BERMAN: Democrats take the House. That is a major change in the power structure of Washington. Republicans expanded their majority in the Senate. And you know what? There are still votes being counted as we speak.

We will tell you what is happening at this moment, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:58:56] ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

CAMEROTA: We want to welcome our viewers in the United States and around the world. This is NEW DAY. It is Wednesday, November seventh, 6:00 here in Washington.

The midterm elections have delivered a split Congress. That's the big headline.

Democrats seizing back control of the House by a decisive margin. Votes are still being counted as we speak. Democrats are already vowing to have more robust investigations of President Trump.

But, Democrats hit a red wall in the Senate. Republicans not only maintained control, but they increased their majority there.

BERMAN: President Trump spoke with the once and possibly future House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, to congratulate her after the Democratic win.

Pelosi celebrated the retaking of the House by saying Americans have had enough of division, and then she hit Republicans.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), HOUSE MINORITY LEADER: Today is more than about Democrats and Republicans. It's about restoring the Constitution's checks and balances to the Trump administration.