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FIRST MOVE WITH JULIA CHATTERLEY
Europe Is Reopening, But There Is Confusion In The U.K. Of Exactly What That Means And How It's Going To Work Out; In Washington, The Outbreak Has Reached The White House As Donald Trump Is Trying To Reopen The U.S. Economy; And The Mouse Is Back In The House In Shanghai. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired May 11, 2020 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:01]
RICHARD QUEST, CNN BUSINESS ANCHOR: Hello, a very good morning to you. A good Monday morning to you. Live from New York, I'm Richard Quest in for
Julia Chatterley who is having a well-earned break today, this is what you need to know as we start a new week together.
Europe is reopening, but there is confusion in the U.K. of exactly what that means and how it's going to work out.
In Washington, the outbreak has reached the White House as Donald Trump is trying to reopen the U.S. economy. We'll talk about that and see exactly
who is affected and what extra steps and extra measures maybe taken.
And the mouse is back in the house in Shanghai. We will be live at Shanghai Disney in China, where the reopening is taking place. The music is there,
and so is our David Culver.
It is Monday and this is FIRST MOVE.
As we start a new day and a new week here in New York, this is how the markets are looking at in terms of the U.S. futures. They are pointing to a
lower open. The market opens in half an hour from now.
Investors are closely monitoring the business reopening. It's taking place around the world. It looks like it'll be a sharpish -- well, let's not
overstate it, but a sharpish open down just over one percent.
In Asia, the Nikkei, the Hang Seng, they all gained as the markets there got into business. Shanghai and KOSPI dropped. There are new virus cases on
the rise in South Korea and that took its toll on the market there which is what you can see.
Oil prices are lower as well. This is even after Saudi Arabia announced a further cut, but the market is not looking for any support because it does
see that the reopening will be longer and slower and perhaps not as effective as people thought.
And by the way, earlier, oil was down some three percent. It has now rallied up a bit.
And to Europe when the markets are open doing business, European stocks are lower. The countries are reopening their economies. But it's slow and it is
painful and that you're seeing now in the reflection, particularly in the DAX, and the Paris CAC 40.
Businesses are reopening across Europe, but it is spotty. It is sketchy, and it is by no means as efficient. Let's get you to the drivers today.
Some shops, some services and primary schools are allowed to reopen in France, but stricter rules remain in Paris, as is often you'll hear, we
talk about in many capital cities, you'll find that is the case.
For example, in Spain, there's limited reopening of restaurants, small shops, and the like, but there's no easing in Madrid and Barcelona.
And to the U.K. after the Prime Minister Boris Johnson laid open -- it laid out the beginnings of the U.K.'s opening plan and a longer and more
detailed 50-page plan will be presented today.
Clarissa Ward is there. The one thing, Clarissa, that seems to have come, let's deal with the U.K. first. The one thing that seems to have come from
the U.K. plan is there seems to be confusion. Exactly what has been opened and what has not?
CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you're exactly right, Richard, confusion reigns here in the U.K. because there seems to be
an abundance of what you might call mixed messages in the Prime Minister's speech last night particular Lee with regards to which workers can now
return to work, who should return to work and how they should return there.
We heard the Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying that if you cannot work from home, but you can safely work at your, at your office or whatever
structure it is wherever you work. And he spoke specifically about people in construction and manufacturing, you should now return to work.
But there seemed to be confusion about whether this should happen on Monday, as the Prime Minister indicated, or whether it should happen on
Wednesday, as his Deputy Dominic Raab seemed to indicate in an interview with BBC Radio earlier on today.
There was also even more confusion, Richard, because the Prime Minister said that if you are one of those people who can go back to work, and
again, we haven't said exactly who they are, you should try to take -- try to avoid taking public transport.
So, if you're in construction and you're working on a construction site in Central London, how exactly are you supposed to get to your place of work?
He suggested potentially walking or taking a bicycle, which of course, for the vast majority of construction workers is probably not a feasible or
likely way that they're going to get to work.
So everybody is very much looking forward to this report. It should be issued any moment now, 50 pages, allegedly going through in sort of
forensic detail and outlining what this return should look like, what days it should be happening on, what businesses are affected, and when they will
be affected.
[09:05:17]
WARD: For everybody else in the country, Richard though, who was waiting, hopefully to find out that they were going to get some more restrictions
lifted, some more freedom returned.
Well, this headline from Britain's beloved tabloid, "The Sun" really says it best, "Ready, Steady, Slow." In other words, much ado about nothing
other than being able to go out multiple times a day to exercise in parks, and even sit on a park bench, as of Wednesday, very little likely to change
in terms of meaningful, substantive change as a result of any of the measures that the Prime Minister outlined last night -- Richard.
QUEST: Clarissa Ward in London, thank you.
To Washington now where the President, of course now faces two members of the administration at the highest levels, a Press Secretary to Mike Pence,
and his own valet, both of which have tested positive for coronavirus.
And now, of course, what does that mean? Well, obviously the President and the Vice President have both tested negative. John Harwood is in
Washington. So, what does it mean that the President's valet tested positive, the Vice President's press spokesman tested positive? How does
that change -- oh and as a result, of course, the major leadership of the C.D.C., the N.I.H. and all the various bodies, they are also going into
some version of their own self self-isolation.
JOHN HARWOOD, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, first of all, Richard, there's concern for the wellbeing of the President, the Vice President and
other members of the White House staff.
Kevin Hassett, who is a White House economic adviser was on television yesterday saying it's scary to go to work and you can tell why when you
look at the nature of the West Wing. It is a very closely packed den of offices -- small offices closely packed to one another, small spaces,
narrow hallways. So, there's some risk associated simply with moving around.
On a larger level, nationally, what it does is, it damages confidence that it's safe to reopen. What does a business reopening and economic reopening
require?
It requires consumers, businesses, investors to feel that it's going to be safe, that economic activity is going to be safe. And when people can see
that people very close to the President and the Vice President working in the White House, where the finest medical facilities are available, where
you've got Secret Service protection, we've got daily testing, if it's in there, how do people elsewhere feel confident in whatever the governors say
who are trying to reopen their economies or whatever President Trump says, if that confidence isn't there, it's not going to work and this is a blow
to that conference.
QUEST: John, I mean, the difficulty we all know in terms of such close quarters, but what extra measures can or should or perhaps will they take
to protect the President and/or the Vice President.
I mean, this person -- these various people have been close to them at the highest levels. Is there more that they can do?
HARWOOD: Well, over the weekend, White House aides were doing contact tracing on Katie Miller, who is the Vice President's Press Secretary. I
think they've done the same with the White House valet.
Some of the White House valets who were not previously wearing masks in the West Wing are wearing masks. Some Secret Service agents are wearing masks.
The President and the Vice President themselves, have not indicated that they are going to wear masks in part because the President wants to keep up
appearances that things are getting back to normal even though you've got this virus still coursing through the country.
There are good things happening. Testing is expanding in the United States. The positivity rate is going down. But there's still virus out there.
There's still risk out there and that will be dramatized for the American people again tomorrow on Capitol Hill where you've got the United States
Senate Committee leading a hearing.
And all of the principal members, the chairman of the committee, and the three top public health officials testifying are all going to be testifying
from quarantine because of their exposure to people who have the coronavirus.
QUEST: John Harwood in Washington. Thank you. Thank you, sir, for putting it out.
Now in China, the Disney Shanghai has reopened. Capacity levels will be sharply lower, only 30 percent and those who are there will have to
obviously follow social distancing. There will be temperature checks and masks will be required.
David Culver, our correspondent is also there. After all the miserable stories that you've had to cover went from Wuhan and beyond in terms of
China, this is a breath of fresh air. What is the mood in the Magic Kingdom of China?
[09:10:14]
DAVID CULVER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You are so right about that, Richard. This is, after four months of covering obviously in what has been a very
difficult story, at the same time, when you're here, I think a lot of the folks share this as well -- there is this cautious optimism. You know, you
don't want to breathe too easy that things are in the past and grow too complacent. And that's the reality for management here as well.
They're trying to make sure that they've put in the proper measures so as to keep the attendance limited. Make sure that social distancing is
maintained as well.
Now, CNN got rare access as they were preparing for this day, which has just wrapped up, the first day in which they are back open and give you a
look as to how this all came together.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CULVER: Welcome in to Shanghai Disneyland, where we are getting a sneak peak of what the new operations are going to look like for this park and
reopening three and a half months after they had to shut down because of the novel coronavirus outbreak here in China.
Now, normally, when you're in the park, as they reopen, you're going to have to wear a mask. We are able to take ours off because the crowd isn't
in just yet.
But as you can see, the preparations are underway. They've used this time to rethink how they're going to have people coming in safely, keeping that
social distance, and avoiding any sort of contact, not only with each other, but also with cast members.
So, it's going to have things looking a little bit differently.
I'm going to take you outside the park to show you how we got in, with Senior Vice President of Operations, Andrew Bolstein.
ANDREW BOLSTEIN, SENIOR VP OF OPERATIONS, SHANGHAI DISNEY RESORT: We ask our guests to do a few things now differently than before. One is we ask
every one of our guests to have temperature screening as they arrive here at the resort.
We also ask them to show their QR code, which is a Shanghai specific health code.
We put a little more structure, decaling and markers in place. So these are very clear. Don't stand here.
CULVER: Yes.
BOLSTEIN: And then you stand in the blank space in between.
As always, we require government I.D. to redeem your tickets at the entrance, but we're also going to be capturing government I.D. information
for every guest that comes into the park, not just one per party, as part of the traceability measures that we have in place now per the government
guidelines.
CULVER: Give us an idea, I mean, as we're walking through, what folks will notice that's different. I mean, one thing that stands out to me is
constant sanitation.
BOLSTEIN: Yes. So, we have a very dedicated team of custodial cleaners that we've even increased the numbers of those throughout the park that are
constantly wiping down all the surfaces.
CULVER: And noticing that parade goes by. Obviously a distance, but you can still see the characters.
BOLSTEIN: Yes. Yes.
CULVER: Not the big hug and high fives, right?
BOLSTEIN: Exactly. More a -- more of a selfie moment and take the photos.
CULVER: Yes.
BOLSTEIN: But, again, it gives the guests that ability to have an emotional moment and that connection.
CULVER: As you're walking along the line here, you'll notice places you can stop and the places you need to keep a distance. And then, eventually,
you make it to the attraction.
Notice this. I want to point this out. As I go into number one, normally you have number two to go into. They've got it roped off.
Stepping off the ride, the new normal. And they've got several more along the way out.
BOLSTEIN: As for the guests understanding, for your health and safety, the table is unavailable. So, basically we're asking the guests not to sit
here, sit there. And, again, it creates kind of that separation between all the different parties.
CULVER: Safe spacing, even for the performances. This is one of the stages. Look here in the crowd. Pick a box. That's where you and your
family unit will stand, keeping that distance.
BOLSTEIN: We'll be able to strike that right balance between that safety and health and confidence side and then the magic that we're able to
deliver every day.
CULVER: Do you feel, in many ways, that not only other parts of the company are look here and other parks hopefully, you know, going to be
reopening. But maybe even other companies saying, well, we see how they're doing it, maybe this could help us reopen too?
BOLSTEIN: Sure. Every where's a little bit different, though. There's different regulations. There's different environments. People are at
different phases of the epidemic. But I think what we have can be a model, hopefully some inspiration for them, and they'll adapt it for what their
local conditions are.
The same thing with the other operators around the world. We communicate and we share. In this type of environment, where we want to focus on safety
and health, that's -- that's an area we all share together.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
QUEST: David, fascinating stuff. The question that comes to my mind is firstly, in those -- in that scenario, I mean, can you still have fun if
you're all sort of being socially distanced apart?
And does anybody want to I -- mean, over the medium term, will it just not all fall a pieces in the sense that you'll get more and more people going
and social distancing will be impossible?
[09:15:03]
CULVER: I will say, the way they have done the ticketing and doing it online, you have to book a spot in advance and a timetable. So, that's
keeping crowds from gathering all at once.
As far as the fun factor, Richard. I mean, the reality is with less people, you can go on more rides. You can go through them more often. So, people
are seeming to experience it with a bit more quality, if you will, at times, and under the facemask, I can tell you for sure you can still see
smiles.
QUEST: David Culver, who I suspect has been on most of the rides, and probably several times with the advantage of social distancing. David, good
to see you. Thank you, sir.
CULVER: No comment.
QUEST: In South Korea has been -- there has been the single biggest a jump in cases since April and the reason is believed to be because of Seoul's
nightclubs. Not much social distancing going on there as Paula Hancocks reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: A cluster of new cases here in Seoul is raising fears of a second wave here in South Korea. Now we
know that a 29-year-old man visited a nightclub district in Seoul called Itaewon on May 2nd.
He since tested positive, and now officials are scrambling to try and find exactly who he could have been in contact with. So far, 86 cases have been
confirmed just linked to that one individual.
Now, we know that officials are trying to track down 5,500 people that they believe were in that area over a two-week period trying to make sure they
can contain this outbreak.
Now, they say they have tested more than 3,000 of them. At this point, they are still waiting for the results of around a thousand of them. But there
are some they are still trying to track down and the way they're doing that is they're using police cooperation.
They are also getting mobile phone records of those who are believed to have been in the area and credit card usage records as well to try and make
sure that they can contain this.
Now, this has had a knock-on effect already. The Education Ministry saying that they're going to push back the opening of schools in South Korea. It
was supposed to be as early as Wednesday. So, two days away. It was going to be year three of high school was going to go back to school and then it
would be a phased reintroduction of students over a number of weeks. That has all now been pushed back by one week and will be reviewed once again.
Now, it just shows that complacency is a very serious issue when it comes to this coronavirus.
We heard from the South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Sunday and he said it's not over until it is over. He said that there were warnings of a
second wave by experts and that nobody can let their guard down.
Paula Hancocks, CNN, Seoul.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
QUEST: Paula there. Now, these are the stories making news around the world as we look to a Wall Street opening just about 15 minutes away.
Iranian state media says 19 Navy personnel died in an accident at sea. It said it happened in the Straits of Hormuz and it involves a support vessel
taking part in naval exercises. No further details have been provided.
And the State of Georgia's Attorney General is asking the U.S. Department of Justice to investigate what happened after the shooting of Ahmaud
Arbery. The 25-year-old was out running in February when he was shot dead that sparked widespread outrage.
It took a further two months for the suspects who are white to be arrested.
Coming up on FIRST MOVE, the CEO of bookings.com and Bookings Holdings is with me to tell us exactly how in reality this is all going to work out as
the openings and planes start flying.
And the former Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou tells me if Europe's reopening plans are on the right track, in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. The U.S. stock market opens in about 15 minutes from now, and all the futures are suggesting not a particularly
dramatic, but a sharper lower open as we start the week. We are now down one percent, 250 odd points expected on the futures and the NASDAQ is just
off three quarters of a percent.
And it is because investors are now weighing up the outlook of the nation reopening, how strong that will be? Where the growth will be and minding
most crucially, which companies are going to be able to open in a meaningful way.
Take for example, the shares of Marriott which are lower. It's a reported 92 percent drop in first quarter profit. For 2020, the stock is down more
than 40 percent.
You can see that and even though there's been a little tinge of a recovery, the gist of it is that people are saying that people won't be traveling for
some time to come, which is why Avianca which only last just celebrated being a hundred years old.
It is the second oldest airline in the world, depending on how you define these things. But Avianca has now -- it is the second largest airline in
South America -- it has now filed for bankruptcy protection.
The Colombia-based operations submitted a voluntary petition because of the unforeseeable impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in their words. The airlines
has 88 percent of countries where Avianca operates are still under total or partial travel restrictions.
Airlines have warned of layoffs ahead. Joining me now is Glenn Fogel, CEO of Booking Holdings. The brand include Priceline and Kayak.
Glenn, good to have you with us, sir, and --
GLENN FOGEL, CEO, BOOKING HOLDINGS (via Skype): Thank you for having me.
QUEST: We know because the companies have told us, IAG says he hopes to start flying meaningfully in June. Lufthansa says it will have 160 planes
back in the air. Qatar Airways is going to move to go back flying again. Airbnb says in those countries that are reopening, the numbers are up. Now,
what are you seeing?
FOGEL: Well, I think that there certainly are some green shoots in certain parts of the world, but they're very, very early. I think we have to
recognize from some of the numbers you just quoted and we are seeing Avianca going into bankruptcy, a lot of other airlines that are teetering.
The fact is, this is going to be a marathon, not a sprint, and we're not going to instantly get back to great volumes for travel. Travel is going to
take a long time.
We were the first industry that came into problems because of this virus, and we're going to be the last guys probably out of it. We just have to
recognize it's going to take a long time before we're going to be back to numbers that we saw in say, 2019.
QUEST: And so as you forecast that ahead, just for your -- we will come back to the market in a moment, let's just talk about your own company.
Can you now have any reliability and foresight as to as to what your level of job losses will be? What restructuring you need to do, or is it still
very much dependent on how robust it is if there is a recovery?
FOGEL: So, we're looking at different scenarios and we're very fortunate that we've gotten assistance from some governments that you pay with a
furlough program. We applied to the Dutch government to get some assistance there. So we are able to maintain employment longer than many, many other
people in the industry. That's great.
But we start to recognize that we can only have the size of the company that matches up with the size of demand. And we're working on the
scenarios, trying to figure out how fast do we think this is going to come back?
But it's very clear last week on my earnings call, I said, this is not many quarters. This is going to be years before we have a full recovery.
[09:25:27]
QUEST: If you are an airline or a hotel trying to entice people back -- look, I saw your comments about how everybody said after 9/11, they
wouldn't fly, but pretty soon they were back again.
And we know that tourism by and large, after natural or manmade disasters does recover to something approaching normal levels quite quickly. Do you
think that this is going to be the case here?
FOGEL: Well, I think yes, but it's dependent on people feeling safe. That's the critical issue. You've got to have either a vaccine that's
effective or treatments that are effective, so people feel comfortable with that when they get onto a plane, that they're not going to get a life-
threatening disease.
In our company, we are somewhat fortunate that we are almost all accommodations, not air, and people can get in their car and they can go
somewhere in the car and that's what we're seeing right now.
We're seeing in looking at our booking window, a lot of the very close-in stuff is going hyper local, not traveling far, very local, getting to a
hotel.
Some of the stuff far out, we are seeing, who are hoping for something that will be opened up and will be safe and they're getting some great prices,
months and months and months from now hoping they'll be okay and they're willing to book now for that and because so much of our stuff is totally
refundable or cancellable, they're going to you know, why not lock up that price now and if they have to cancel later, they cancel later.
QUEST: Right. The number of people myself included, that still have reservations, particularly airlines and things that have not been refunded.
Hotels have been pretty good about refunding and this is turning into a major industry-wide problem.
FOGEL: No, it's really a very difficult, difficult situation for so many people. I mean, we're right in the middle of this, and I see it. And we've
been -- our people, our customer service people have been just -- the numbers of calls of people wanting cancellations or changes in their travel
class, it's been unbelievable.
Multiples of what we've ever seen, and we're doing everything we can. But here's the fact. You have a customer, they say they want to cancel, and we
say absolutely.
And we talk to the hotels, if we can get in touch with the hotel. Many hotels have closed down throughout the world. There's no one to contact
with them to get that money to the customer.
We're working through it as best we can and we just ask everyone for patience. We get it. It's hard right now. We know that this is a problem.
QUEST: I mean, currently, you have the same problem that people like myself do, which is getting through to the various hotels or airlines
simply to say thank you or say can we have our money back? Thank you, Glenn. Good to see you. I appreciate it. Thank you.
In a moment, the opening bell, well, such as it is at the New York Stock Exchange.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:31:15]
QUEST: They have let me loose on FIRST MOVE. Julia is having the day off, and welcome back to FIRST MOVE. I'm Richard Quest.
The opening bell has rung and the U.S. markets have opened and they are off to business, a sort of down day. Start of a new week and what's
interesting, and I think it's going to rally. Don't ask me why, except that an hour ago, or half an hour ago when we started, we were off more than
that.
We are down one percent on it, but there seems to be general, now 24,097 is being held for the moment.
There are concerns about a second wave because everybody is talking about it as the reopening happens. The number of people who have died from
coronavirus or really coronavirus-related and can be attributed is now fast approaching 80,000 in the United States.
We're going to get in the United Kingdom a report on Q1 GDP numbers. This as the U.K. has a somewhat confused opening policy, which you heard about
talking earlier from Clarissa Ward.
And the U.S. and China auto report, the U.S. retail sales numbers, they'll be bad, but at least in the case of China, we might get an indication on
exactly how the pickup is taking place now that the company is pretty much reopened.
Now joining me now is Ed Lazear, the Professor of Economics at Stanford University, the former economic adviser under President Bush. He joins me
now.
ED LAZEAR, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, STANFORD UNIVERSITY: Nice to be with you.
QUEST: We know the numbers are pretty awful and that the job numbers was horrible. But how much worse do you expect it to get, bearing in mind that
the payroll numbers were taken earlier on in the month?
LAZEAR: Right. Well, that's the point I was going to make. That's a good point. So, the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics which compiles numbers
does the analysis, they go out and survey around the 12th of the month, few days, one side or the other.
But we're talking about data that is now almost a month old and the other thing we know, of course, is that the new claims -- initial unemployment
insurance claims -- have been just astronomical in terms of their numbers.
So, if you add those two together, and you put those on top of the number that we had unemployed back in February before we started this, we are now
up above 40 million people unemployed.
So, that would actually translate unfortunately, into depression level unemployment rate somewhere in the mid-20s, and that's probably where we
are right now.
So the 14.7 that we saw on Friday is a pretty significant understatement of the current unemployment rate.
QUEST: I don't in any way wish to minimize the awfulness of the crisis facing those people who are affected. But as an economist, where you can
see the reason why and you can see that many of those people classify themselves as temporary unemployed. What do you think we look like after
the reopening, say, for example, by Christmas?
LAZEAR: Yes. Well, again, the question is, how long do we stay closed? If it is temporary, you know, every day, it's longer and longer, although we
are starting to reopen right now.
If it is temporary, we can bounce back pretty quickly and when I say pretty quickly, one of the things that we know and this is standard in every
recession, it's not unique to this one -- it is that the first thing that picks up is output.
So, you'll see sales pick up. You'll see production pick up. That happens before employment picks up and the reason for that, of course, is that you
have a lot of slack labor in the firms and particularly right now with a PPP program that it exacerbates that effect.
[09:35:13]
LAZEAR: Then after that, you'll see employment pick up and then finally at the end, when we're really hitting on all cylinders, then you'll start to
see wages pick up.
So, we are significantly away from that. I would guess -- Christmas, I think he's optimistic. We will start to pick up, but Christmas would be
optimistic in terms of getting back to where we are now. I don't think anybody thinks we will be there by then.
QUEST: No, but can I just challenge, if I may say, sir that's a scenario you set out, it would have been for a normal garden variety type of
recession or even a severe one.
But in this case, companies, manufacturing especially furloughed that workers to get them onto the government's unemployment books. But they
can't start that process of remanufacturing until they take them back on again.
I guess what we're all looking for is what is the structural number of people who will not come back?
LAZEAR: Right. Yes, no, I agree with you. Although I think the point I made we already see in the numbers. So, if you look, at average weekly
hours from the Jobs Report, what you saw is average hours actually went up. That's highly unusual when you're going into a recession when things are
declining.
And the reason that ours went up is what they're doing is they laid people off, and then they're using the people that they have at a higher pace.
So, it is certainly the case that this is a different kind of recession. That's kind of the good news, because it is a supply recession, rather than
a demand recession. It has the ability to come back much more quickly and I'm much more optimistic than I would be in a normal recession.
That said, the longer it goes, the longer we start seeing things like bankruptcies and credit market constraints and so forth.
So, we need to get going quickly before this does come back and become a very long term financial crisis kind of recession on top of what we have
right now.
QUEST: Professor, thank you. I'm always so impressed from the West Coast when people get up so early and keep almost East Coast time. I just sort of
realized this as we came to the end there that it's 6:30 in the morning for you, sir.
And you're bright, breezy in talking economics, which is an achievement in itself at this time for you, sir. Have a good breakfast after we talk. Good
to see you, sir.
LAZEAR: All right. Thank you.
QUEST: The big issue, of course, is want of a vaccine. Johnson & Johnson is making a big push for coronavirus vaccines. It's not alone. The Oxford
University team is supposedly in the lead and you have gotten numerous different groups tying up, academics with those who create the biochemistry
and those companies who actually manage to have large scale production, usually the large pharma.
CNN's Anna Stewart reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER (voice over): At least, 100 COVID-19 vaccines are in development around the world. From small biotech firms and
university research groups to the big pharmaceutical companies. Eight groups have broken through to the next phase, human trials.
If one succeeds and gets regulatory approval from individual countries, the next challenge begins, producing enough vaccine for the world.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
THOMAS CUENI, DIRECTOR GENERAL, INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF PHARMACEUTICAL MANUFACTURERS: When you look at the biggest vaccine manufacturers, there
may be five in the industrialized world able and with skillset know how to manufacture at large scales. And even if you combine their capacity and
they don't have excess capacity, they might struggle to come up with the volumes you need right now
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEWART (voice over): Pharmaceutical companies are forming partnerships. Even united, they could face major manufacturing challenges.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CUENI: At the end of the day, you may have a vaccine, but then you find out you don't have enough vials. The bottleneck might be at the end of the
supply chain.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEWART (voice over: The entire world needs this vaccine, but who gets it first?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KATHERINE O'BRIEN, DIRECTOR, IMMUNIZATION, VACCINES, AND BIOLOGICALS DEPARTMENT, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: In any product that is -- has
inadequate supply to meet all of the demand, there will always be interests at heart to serve, you know, the primary interests of those who are in
control of the product.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEWART (voice over): There are concerns countries could put national interests first.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: Everybody wants to get a vaccine for their country, for the
safety of their country, and if possible, make it available to the world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEWART (voice over): How a vaccine is shared is a question for politicians, and it needs to be answered soon.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: If everything went perfectly well, we might be able to see early licensure of those products near the end of 2020. I've never seen a product
where everything goes as planned. Maybe we'll get lucky.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[09:40:14]
STEWART (voice over): And if we do, there are further challenges ahead to vaccinate the world.
Anna Stewart, CNN, London.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
QUEST: As we continue, we'll be going to Greece and talking to the former Prime Minister. Now, the country has been widely praised for the way it's
held the coronavirus and the lockdown.
Now, we need to consider the reopening. It's underway. Will they be as successful at containing the virus now the country is open for business?
We'll get to that. It is FIRST MOVE. It is the start of a week. I'm Richard Quest, Julia is off today.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: As Europe opens up, there will be particular interest and concern watching what's happening in Greece. Athens has done a very good job at
containing the virus at the height of the pandemic. And now everybody wants to know whether it'll be able to continue that as the country reopens.
There have been people on the streets and shops are starting to reopen. George Papandreou is the former Prime Minister of Greece. He joins me via
Skype from Athens. It is now mid-May. The weather has turned. It is beautiful. Probably the best time of the year to be in Greece and in
Athens. But --
GEORGE PAPANDREOU, FORMER PRIME MINISTER OF GREECE: Absolutely, Richard.
QUEST: But there is great concern -- the great concern at the way in which a reopening could destroy the good work that's been done so far.
PAPANDREOU: Well, first of all, Richard, it is great to hear from you. And I know you've gone through this COVID adventure and glad you're up and well
and it must have been a harrowing experience.
And I think we all have a sense of the difficulties around the world, maybe it's the first time in the world that everybody has similar feelings
experience, anguish, fear, hope, empathy, solidarity, tears in our eyes, seeing the heroes -- frontline heroes. Maybe this shows that really we
should be able to work together.
[09:45:19]
PAPANDREOU: And in Greece, we're proud that we were able to deal with this quickly compared with the crisis we went through, you remember, we used to
talk about this 10 years ago, the financial crisis. Greece came together, there was a consensus, opposition parties and government.
I think a mature, self-discipline of the citizens of Greece shows that a democracy can do this. It doesn't have to be an authoritarian regime. We
can do it with self-discipline and working together. And we learned from the -- in a humble way from others and then from the experts.
We got away from the fake news and the conspiracy theories which we had a lot of in 2010. But you're right, now is going to be the test. We have, of
course, really flattened the curve. Most of our islands -- not all our islands are completely corona free.
We do hope then that we are going to get guidelines, hopefully soon from the European Union, on the Schengen Area, very strict guidelines as to how
hotels, transportation will work, so that we can open up, obviously, to a much smaller number, but still open up and keep the tourism industry alive.
But of course, the other issue that every country is facing, how you open up shops, opening up taverns and so on.
QUEST: So with that in mind, does Greece, I suppose, of course, having suffered the awfulness of the austerity during the financial crisis, what
do you see as being Greece's needs going forward?
The E.U. has already apologized to Italy for the way it was treated. I'm sure some people in Greece feel they'd like an apology too for the way they
were treated. But what are you going to need, do you think from the Europeans?
PAPANDREOU: We need to work together, and this is not just a European issue. You can see it in the United States where there's quite disparate
differences between the states, different states and then the Federal government.
Europe, of course, are different countries, but working in unison is very important. First of all, dealing with issues like supplies, procurement, a
common approach, but now there will be a question of an economic financial help and stimulus.
We would -- I think, a country particularly like Greece from my experience, we would need Euro bonds on the one hand, but I would say also fiscal
transfers.
There is going to be a huge shock for many countries. I don't want to go back to what the initial response in 2008 was in Europe where they said,
okay, we simply soften the rules, the Maastricht rules of budget and state aid, because that will actually help certain countries that are in a better
position or richer economies.
The poor economies will suffer because they will have higher costs for debt. They won't be able to support their industries. We need to have a
common fiscal policy and dealing with this issue.
QUEST: I mean, you had me nearly leaping out of the chair when you talked about fiscal transfers, and if you like, coronavirus bonds, which the
northern countries have pretty much written off as not happening. Is that a debate that's still worth opening?
PAPANDREOU: I think it is because, you know, we're talking about the survival of Europe. We're not talking about one country versus another.
I think we have to get away from the blaming and shaming, saying, you know, some countries have, you know, worse off debts. I mean, we, of course went
through this whole crisis. And I also think we need to do this quickly.
But the experience that I had and we had in 2010 was we took too little measures too late and the crisis, just deepened, deepened, and deepened.
There was a contagion then that was in the markets. The fear of the markets towards the different countries, and the cost on human unemployment, the
economy, suffering of our citizens, created huge populism, euro skepticism, and now it could get worse.
I fear that if we don't work together, this is not a question. It's not a question of simply solidarity. It's a question of the European project. Is
the European project, really working to help us all get out of this?
And, you know, if one country falls, everyone will fall. If Italy falls, this is going to be a major problem for the rest of Europe.
QUEST: Good to see you, George. Thank you. I appreciate it.
PAPANDREOU: Glad to see you, Richard.
QUEST: Beautiful scenery. Beautiful country. Looking forward to my next visit. Thank you, sir.
[09:50:12]
PAPANDREOU: And I think also, when we move -- oh, thank you very much. Thank you, Richard.
QUEST: Thank you. Now, in just a moment, Elon Musk says he is going to move. He is going to move out of California and to Texas. We will explain
why after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: Elon Musk is suing one of the counties in California where his factory is based after. The county refuse to allow him to reopen the
factory or at his plan to start the reopening. Now, he says he'll move to plans on the company's headquarters to Texas. Clare Sebastian is with me.
How real is this threat?
CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: It would be sort of a big step for Elon Musk, Richard, to do that, but he is certainly serious. He
threatened a lawsuit. It has now been filed in California against Alameda County, which is where the Fremont factory, Tesla's biggest factory making
the Model 3 is based. That, by the way has been shut down since the end of March.
And the background of this, the reason why Musk is now so upset is that California as a state has started to allow manufacturing sites to reopen,
but Alameda County where the Fremont factory is located has gone its own way. It has essentially said that their stay-at-home shelter-in-place order
will stay in place until the end of May, which means that Tesla's hope for reopening in the middle of May isn't going to happen.
This is why Elon Musk went on a full-on Twitter rant on Saturday, Richard, tweeting, "Frankly, this is the final straw. Tesla will now move its HQ and
future programs to Texas/Nevada immediately. If we even retain Fremont manufacturing activity at all. It will be dependent on how Tesla is treated
in the future. Tesla is the last car maker left in California."
And to an extent you can understand his frustration. Even in Michigan where we know that the outbreak has been pretty severe, they are going to start
to reopen manufacturing facilities.
The United Auto Workers Union has said that their workers will start to return on May 18th, and Tesla as we know Elon Musk, Richard is a man in a
hurry.
QUEST: All right, but the reality and the practicality, let's just say he is allowed to reopen in, say two or three weeks or another month's time. He
is not going to move an entire car plant, is he?
SEBASTIAN: I mean, look, Dan Ives said in a note, he's from Wedbush that this would be a high stakes poker game. A, it would take 12 to 18 months to
shift his entire car plant, that would potentially reveal kinks in the manufacturing, he might have delays. He doesn't want that.
He has been targeting half a million cars produced this year. He just made a surprise profit. He doesn't want to upend that. So look, I think he has
been talking about Texas before, maybe he's thinking of opening a separate new plant in Texas, perhaps to produce the Cyber Truck, but I think the
idea of shifting the entire Fremont operation which really is the beating heart of Tesla's manufacturing to a different state would be a huge deal
for the company and would lead to sort of interruptions as they went along.
[09:55:06]
QUEST: Clare Sebastian, keep watching. Keep listing and see who is saying what. Thank you, Clare Sebastian.
Now, before I leave you tonight -- this morning I should say, well with all these time differences.
Let's have a look at the markets, a final look at the markets. We started off lower half an hour ago and now we need to get an indication of the way
they're moving.
And they are coming back just a tad, not much. Down 212 points. They were down more a short while ago. But they are coming back and we have a long
way to go between now and four o'clock this afternoon.
But between three and four this afternoon in New York, that's when I'll be with you for "Quest Means Business." I shall return to move amongst you
during that hour.
Julia is back tomorrow. Sanity returns. They've let me loose at the helm and now we will survey what wreckage remains. Julia is back tomorrow. I'll
see you with "Quest Means Business" a few hours from now. Whatever you're up to between now and then, I hope it is profitable.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[10:00:00]
END
END
