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Expecting New Totals in Arizona and Georgia; Protesters Gathering outside Arizona Voting Site; Georgia Planning to Count Through the Night; Expecting New Vote Totals in Arizona, Georgia Tonight. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired November 5, 2020 - 00:00   ET



CHRIS CUOMO, CNN HOST: All right. It is the stroke of midnight, here, on the East Coast. And we are just getting started. Welcome back to CNN's breaking news coverage, Election Night in America, continued. I'm Chris Cuomo, along with my man, D. Lemon.

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: Can you believe it's still continuing?

And, Chris, at this hour, we are standing by for a large batch of votes to be posted in Arizona. That's where Joe Biden has a very narrow lead over President Trump. That lead could get narrower tonight as we go on.

CUOMO: Arizona, very much in play. That's why we haven't called it. Many other organizations have not. The grand irony at play is the president was upset that somebody called Arizona, saying you got to count all the votes.

Yet, he now has, you know, a pretty flimsy strategy in place to keep votes from being counted. We will take you through all of that tonight.

We are also keeping a very close eye on the changing vote totals in Georgia. If we had to pick a state tonight, that's the state to watch.


Trump's lead keeps slimming, every time they give us a new batch.

So what are we looking at here?

We have key races to go through. We are dealing with the big five. The song reference would be one, to, two, three, four, five, senses working overtime. You got to look at each one because each one is a different story.

Arizona, OK.

Can Biden hold the flip?

Eleven electoral votes; 80 percent of the estimated vote is in. But what does that mean?

Where are the votes?

What does it mean in terms of red/blue?

It has been getting better for the president, as the last votes have come in. The margin right now, 79,000.

Will it hold?

We'll go through it, in a second. Next, Nevada. Six electoral votes. 86 percent in. Here's the problem with this race. It's stalled. We're not going to get more information, until tomorrow. But you do have to keep going in to see how it fits into these different pathways to victory. Very slim margin right now, 7,600 votes.

Nothing has changed since we were together early this morning. But its importance may have changed. We'll talk to you about that next.

Georgia, OK. This is the one we're really going to have an eye on, especially early on in the shift tonight; 16 electoral votes, 95 percent of the estimated vote is in.

So how can there be a lot of question marks left?

Because these have been big blue areas that were slow to count, especially around Atlanta. And the Democrat is bringing in huge percentages of gain every time there is a new bucket of returns.

As a result, you had over a 200-point spread. Now you are down to 30. So we will keep this very close right now. Certainly, in recount area, whoever loses.

Twenty electoral votes, 89 percent of the vote in, in Pennsylvania. Now this is a slowly emerging story. But important. Why?

Because this is like, come on, 600 votes, 600,000. It had to be over. Look now, 164,000 votes. The president's big push in Pennsylvania.

Not now, you know why?

Because you count all the votes.

Next state, North Carolina. This is the quietest tell of the night. The president is up. He has been up. The margin has contracted a little bit, 76,000 votes there; 95 percent of the estimated vote is in.

Is there some type of secret space for Biden?

Not sure. We'll take you through all the different permutations here.

Those are the five states. We'll go to the Electoral College. I always sleep on this.

You know why?

Because it never changes. We're 253-213. I should show it to you every time there is a key race alert. It's just, nothing's happening here until we get results from the states.

But this is the state of play. Now let's go figure out all the different roads to success here.

Phil, you're too young. But that song from XTC, "one, two, three, four, five senses working overtime," is exactly where we are in looking at these states because you can look at them different ways and you don't really know how they are going to break. But every piece that changes leads to a new set of potential outcomes.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN U.S. CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. And each of those pieces can come together and give you a sense of where things are going. And I think that's what we are looking for early in the night.

I want to start with the state of Arizona. First, actually, you just kind of laid out.

What are we watching for this -- this night?

Arizona, obviously, in a matter of minutes, we are going to get a new batch for Arizona and those will be crucial.

You mentioned Nevada. We don't expect new results from Nevada but it is razor thin and how it fits into the map is very important.

Georgia has been moving all night. Could move a little bit more over the course of the night. It's tightened up. We are going to want to watch that.

And Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is extremely important as that margin starts to tighten. It's red right now.

Does it stay that way?


MATTINGLY: I want to start with Arizona. We are expecting a new batch of votes from Maricopa County. We will get them from Kyung Lah, our colleague.

Why does Maricopa County matter?

That's 60 percent of the state's population. Right now, Joe Biden, 51 percent to 46 percent. However, this is important, over the course of the night, pull it back out, over the course of the day, Joe Biden's lead has gone from about 220,000 votes to where it sits right now, 79,000 votes.

And it has narrowed. The last batch that came in from Maricopa County, Donald Trump narrowed the lead again. If Donald Trump hits between 55- 57 percent of everything that comes in the state, he can tie or take the lead in the state of Arizona.

CUOMO: Quick question.


CUOMO: For folks at home watching. Blue, obviously, usually means Biden does better there.

If the president keeps doing proportionately better, every time votes come in from Maricopa, why is it blue and not red?

MATTINGLY: He's still ahead. But here's an important point. You bring up an important contextual point.

Why this matters?

The composition of what's coming in has been crucial. Right?

If you watch what happened in Pennsylvania when it turned from red to blue. If you watch what happened in Michigan when it turned from red to blue. The outstanding vote was mail-in, absentee ballots, which have skewed heavily toward Democrats across the country.

Here is the wild card with the state of Arizona. In Maricopa, a lot of the outstanding vote, right now, is late mail-in or late drop-off ballots, Monday-Tuesday dropoff ballots or mail in. Those have leaned more Republican. It's a little bit different.

Arizona is a much heavier vote-by-mail state. They've done it for several cycles. And that is why the Trump campaign was so furious when other networks were calling the race for Joe Biden while they have maintained that they have a pathway here and they are right.

If you look at what's outstanding right now, Maricopa County, we expect about 100,000 more votes to come in here. That might be low. We expect 17,000, 18,000 more votes to come here in Pima. You expect this to go a little more Biden.

But if you are the Trump campaign right now, you have your eyes on Maricopa. Obviously, the most populous part of the entire state. And you believe you have a pathway, based on that vote, if you hit your margins.

This margin for Joe Biden, Arizona is over. Even if Donald Trump wins the outstanding vote, 51-52 percent, Joe Biden wins the state of Arizona. What Donald Trump needs to do with what we see here when Kyung Lah gives us the numbers in about 20 minutes, is he hitting 56 percent?

That's why we are watching, that's why this is narrowed. And that's why nobody over here has called this state yet. Donald Trump still very much has a pathway here.

CUOMO: Right. You're making the right point about checking in with Kyung Lah to find out what's happening. Kyung Lah is in Maricopa County. Very busy there, not just for the counting, Kyung, but you've had

drama. You've had protesters outside. It's obviously going to be something that the people have to worry about when they go home. Take it.

What do you have?

KYUNG LAH, CNN SENIOR U.S. CORRESPONDENT: OK. So we are just being told that this building is now going to close. So we are the last news organization allowed to do a live shot here. I want to start here because this is what it's about.

This is American democracy. What you are seeing here are the good people of the Maricopa County Elections Department, doing the count. This is the tedious, at times, long, hard work of counting the ballots. Making sure the information is correct.

I'm going to swing you over this way. This is my producer, Kim Berryman. She is talking about how we are going to get out of this building. There is an exit plan being formed because, what's happening beyond those doors right there, you can see that, that is closed up. That shade has been dropped.

Outside, there is a very sizeable protest. If you look at the aerial pictures from our affiliate, it's very big. This is a small parking lot. This protest has been going on for some time now. It has fluctuated in time but it is sizeable, as you can see.


CUOMO: We are showing it to people at home, Kyung, just so you know. Showing what's going on.

And that's what I want you to talk about is how do the people who are doing the job feel about what awaits them outside?

And how is it affecting what they're doing?

LAH: I mean, OK, so let's -- let's start here. These people parked in the parking lot.

How are they going to get the cars out of there, number one, when they finish this count?

Because we are expecting a count in about 20 minutes, a look at what's happening to the ballots here. What could help figure out where the 11 electoral votes are going to go. So they're here for a while. We don't know how they're going to leave.


LAH: We, frankly, as we look at some of the officers heading out that way, to try to figure out what to do as law enforcement with this large crowd.

And I should add that this is a crowd that is armed. There are a number of people out there who have been seen with long guns, with automatic -- semiautomatic rifles because this is an open-carry state. So there are a lot of security concerns.

CUOMO: Kyung, are they leaving -- Kyung, are they leaving, now, because of the risk?

Or is it closing time?

And what does it mean about beginning the count again, tomorrow, from that location?

LAH: From what I can sort of piece together because this was happening in the very few moments right before I joined you here, this -- this work is going to continue. You know, again, 20 minutes from now, we are expecting the numbers to be released on time via press release.

And everything is running smoothly on that end. But the work here isn't stopping. There are no problems inside. The problems are happening outside and just trying to keep things under control so that this work can continue.

CUOMO: What's the beef for the people outside?

What is their message?

LAH: You know, it's a lot of chanting, a lot of slogans that we have heard before, the talking about count the vote, stop the vote, that, you know, they want Trump. A lot of flags being waved, Trump flags.

You know, it's -- we heard people singing "YMCA" for a little while. So it's just a number of different songs and slogans as this keeps continuing.

CUOMO: All right. Last thing. And then, you got to find your way out of there and I'll talk to you from some other location or you just call in and give the information.

But how do we get the information from Arizona officials tonight if it's not going to come from you in that building?

LAH: We are told that they will get it to us, somehow, via press release.


LAH: And so, that will probably happen electronically. As soon as we get it, we're going to bring it to you.

CUOMO: All right. Good. Safety first. I hate that that's an issue, right now, to be honest. It's not like you are in a situation that's supposed to be high tension. This is supposed to be democracy in action. Kyung, thank you very much.

I got to tell you. You know, Mr. President, I can't believe that you'd be happy with that, on your behalf, literally, chilling a democracy that you know is fundamental to how we pick our next president.

Is that the atmosphere you want for what make America great again?

What a question for you to answer. Be great to hear it. So let's go back to the wall.

That's going to be a problem, right?

Because, now, you got people doing their job, under stress. Now they are leaving. Now they come back. Maybe it's going to be delayed. And we really have to know because how Arizona goes will make a difference.

MATTINGLY: Well, and I think the president would like Arizona to continue to count their ballots.


CUOMO: His chance to win, when it's trending the right way, is being compromised by his own people chilling and scaring the people who are doing the counting that might make a difference for the president himself.

I mean, that is why, very often, anger is irrational. It's not even productive for your own aims here. And just to circle back before we move on, every time we have gotten a dump from Maricopa today, it has been good for President Trump in terms of the ratio of balloting. And we have to keep going and watch.

Other than Maricopa, how many other areas to watch?

MATTINGLY: Pima is the other outstanding one, 17,000 votes we expect to come in. We expect it to come in Democrat.

So Joe Biden, if you are looking at what's outstanding right now, the vast majority's coming from Maricopa but Pima is a Democratic stronghold. I think, the bottom line here, in Arizona, is we just don't know.

CUOMO: Right.

MATTINGLY: We don't know what's coming in. We don't know the total composition of it, when it was dropped off, how it was actually cast, entirely. We know the majority of it's coming from Maricopa. We know Maricopa, right now, is leaning Biden.

But we also know, just go back to 2016, used to be a Republican stronghold. It shifted demographically. It shifted on the education side of things. And Democrats have taken advantage of that.

But there is a Republican vote in the county of Maricopa and as you noted, over the last couple batches, it has leaned toward President Trump.

CUOMO: So how do you want to game it going forward?

Do we want to look at the big board in terms of what happens in terms of who wins --

MATTINGLY: I want to go to a couple states that are still outstanding and then we can start showing pathways.

First one I want to go to is Georgia because, when we were talking last night into this morning, Georgia was a significant lead for President Trump. somewhere between 250,000 and 300,000 votes.

Look where it is right now. It is at 31,748 votes. There is 95 percent reporting and what we have seen, over the course of this day, as this lead has narrowed and narrowed and narrowed, is the vast majority of the vote is coming from Democratic strongholds. The vast majority of the vote is coming from Fulton County. The vast majority of the vote is coming from Dekalb County.


MATTINGLY: Look at the margin in Dekalb. Lot of it's coming from vote by mail. That is skewed heavy Democratic in a very, very Democratic County.

So for example, right now, there is about 95,000 votes that we believe are outstanding in the state of Georgia. So you look at this. You look at all the red.

You say, OK, well, how does Joe Biden end up getting 65-66 percent of that?

I will give you an example. Fulton County just dropped a batch of votes, about 25,000 votes just a short while ago. It went 80-20 Biden, 80-20 Biden. If those types of margins hold, it isn't out of the question. So what that means right now, let's take this down, 95 percent left.

You have a couple suburbs around Atlanta, Dekalb. Go down here as well, Rockdale, pretty heavily Democratic. Go here, Clayton County.

So the bulk of the vote, we have been talking about this over the course of the last 15 to 16 hours. The bulk of the outstanding vote is coming from Democratic strongholds and it is leaning heavily towards Joe Biden right now.

So what we don't know, we don't know, is if what's remaining will break 65-66 percent to Biden. What we do know is, based on the batches we have seen over the last several hours, that is not out of the realm of possibility at all.

CUOMO: Right. And question that keeps coming up is, if there is 95 percent in, why are there so many -- because there are a lot of counties in Georgia.

How many?

There's like 160 counties in Georgia. If you hit one of the counties, we will know exactly how many there are, 159 counties. So you have a lot of places that haven't fully reported. But they're very small groups of population. So we have to watch them. But that's why there is so many.

MATTINGLY: And this is a good point. What this shows, Dodge County, not a huge vote here. They're still 71 percent in right here. This vote would likely go to President Trump. Depends on composition, of course. Vote by mail could lean a little more heavily.

However, even if this goes for President Trump for the remainder that's outstanding, it's 1,000-2,000 votes. It's not a huge margin. But the majority of it is coming from Democrats' strongholds. Majority of it is vote by mail.

And that's why if you are the Biden campaign, not like President Trump in Arizona, you have a pathway in Georgia right now. You may actually feel good about your pathway in Georgia right now. But we're going to have to wait and see.

And that brings me to Pennsylvania.

CUOMO: Hold on a second. Let's get some context from Georgia the way we did with Kyung Lah in Arizona. For context, the states are this close, it can't be right.

Well, be very clear, the president won in Wisconsin in 2016. He had, like, it was by like 20-something-thousand votes. In Michigan, he won by 10,000 votes. So it was tight then also. You have more states that are tight.


Because we are entrenched in our divisions. This country is divided. There is a lot of energy on opposite sides of the political spectrum.

What does that mean for us?

We're going to have to pick the man first. And then we will figure out what message best resonates and gets people moving back to common cause again.

So if Atlanta is going to be bringing in votes tonight, how many?

What's the pace?

What's the timeline?

Nick Valencia, great to see you, my friend.

What do we know about what kind of information we may get and when?

NICK VALENCIA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Real sense of urgency here. We are on the razor's edge in Atlanta. Not many votes left to count. I spoke to Regina Waller, saying though they had expected to stop here at 3:00 am Eastern this morning, they have now decided to go until the job is done here tonight.

They also gave an update on how many absentee ballots remained to be counted. Just about an hour ago, they told us 20,000 remained in Fulton. Now all of those votes, we are not sure.

But the big question is, are there enough Democratic votes to push this in -- into favor of Joe Biden?

That remains the outstanding question. We know, throughout the night, throughout the last 24 hours, these mail-in ballots that have been counted have tended to favor Joe Biden. It is not clear, though, how that's going to break down as they come in.

But an update, just a little while ago, Chris, Fulton County going to do it until the job is done. That margin, 24 hours ago, for President Trump, was about 102,000 votes. Right now, it is around 30,000.

So you can tell just how important this district, this county, is for contender Joe Biden. We are hoping to get some updates tonight. The secretary of state says they're not going to release any more information or make any other statements.

But there's -- that counting will continue to go on. I'm going to step out of the way so you can see a little bit of the action behind me here, Chris.

We want to be clear. The counting is not happening right here. This is a group of people. This is the first stage of counting. They process the ballots, making sure that they are coming in clean. And then, they're taken to an offsite location, where, then, they're processed. But these are individuals who have been working all night.


VALENCIA: So you have to wonder if human error is taking a factor at all or playing a factor. These are people who have been working well throughout the night. Not many breaks here, either. Again, a real sense of urgency here in Fulton County, as they are continuing to count the ballots that are still outstanding.

CUOMO: Hey, Nick, give me that take one more time in terms of how the procedure works. So the people behind you seem to be taking things out, unfolding them and putting them into stacks.

What is the process here?

What are they doing?

So she's not counting the vote, she is basically correlating them?

VALENCIA: That's right.

Collating them?

MATTINGLY: Essentially, they are adjudicated in an offsite location. If there is a question whether one of these ballots has a discrepancy, you have one Republican monitor, one Democratic monitor. If they can't decide, they bring in a third party, who decides to make the decision on whether that ballot is accepted or not. So to be clear, Chris, they are not counting the ballots here. This is

just the first stage in the process to get the ballot counted; it is adjudicated, then, at an offsite location.

CUOMO: All right. So that ballot is seen as OK. She takes the stack of them. Just looking at the one woman behind you.

And then, they go somewhere else and somebody else actually counts the vote?

That's right. It goes to a third-party site, an offsite location, where they are counted. And they're going through a lot. I mentioned, about an hour ago, they said there were about 20,000 ballots remaining; at this point, 17,000. Not many left to count here.

According to the secretary of state an hour ago, they said 90,000 absentee votes across the state.

CUOMO: Nick, thank you. If you hear anything or change in the timeline or volume, let us know. I appreciate you.

I have to tell you -- so what's the headline?

In Georgia, in this main county that matters in terms of population density for Democrats, Fulton County, which the seat obviously has Atlanta in it, they're going to work throughout the night. They have 17,000 votes to go there just there. Obviously, if it was only 17,000 votes left, the race would be over.

But that's tedious work, what they're doing there, you know?

Just because it's simple doesn't mean that it doesn't get tedious and exhausting. We have to balance how fast we want to get the result with how accurate that result is.

And when you have a lot of human beings putting their hands on things and having to put them in piles for someone else for another human being, we get human error pretty quickly. We have seen recounts, you and I have been through them, the numbers change almost every time they recount because of human error.

MATTINGLY: Human error occurs but I also think it's important to note that, one, these are people that are volunteering. They are volunteering out of the goodness of their heart.

CUOMO: Civic duty.

MATTINGLY: But also, the campaigns are on the ground. Right?

They have a sense of what's going on. They're not blind to what's happening, to some degree. Both sides have opportunities to see what's going on here.

And I think that underscores that, look, you want people to take the time. You want people to go through the process. And that was just the process of taking everything out and moving the process forward. You know, there's been a lot of loose talk from certain sectors about

how this vote count goes, what should be counted, how it should be counted, everything like that.

The consistent message, we have talked to a number of secretaries of state over the last couple days, has been the process has been smooth. The results have been coming in. It might not be as fast as people would want. Right?

We would all like it by 11:00 pm on Election Night. But they're coming in, it's consistent, it's smooth. Up to this point, we haven't seen any major mishaps, haven't seen any major problems. No big reports of fraud. It underscores that the system, to this point, as we have seen, despite the fact that it's just real humans, everyday people, going through this process, the system is working.

And it might take some time, particularly with the amount of vote by mail, but the system is working.

CUOMO: Right. And I got to tell you I'm just bothered what we saw in Maricopa County. If you don't like what is happening under this process because you are laboring under a misunderstanding of how our democracy works, why mess with the people who are just like you, volunteering to do a nice job for the rest of us?

Go find the secretary of state, the lieutenant governor or governor, go after them if you are unhappy about what's going on in the state. Don't bother these people. Somebody else should be giving you that message. But you should know it, yourselves.

All right. So if there is 17,000 in that one county, what does that tell us about -- we'll get that number in. You are going to have to know more from Georgia. They're working until 3 o'clock in the morning. We probably won't know, tonight.

MATTINGLY: It depends on how the other counties report. Fulton's obviously going to work through. Nick just said it.

CUOMO: Arizona, we probably won't know tonight but we will get a lot more information.

Georgia, we might not know tonight but we will get more information.

Where does that take us?

MATTINGLY: I just want to contextualize the 17,000 that's left over that's obviously dropped a little bit and what does this mean with the overall margin.

Fulton County, Democratic stronghold, look at the margin, 72-26. The last batch from Fulton went 80-20.


MATTINGLY: And if 80-20 sits, this 17,000 and what's in Dekalb and what else is outstanding right now, Joe Biden's got a path. So that's one important thing to look at here. There's still some red

counties as well.


MATTINGLY: This is the Fulton vote that just came in. The batch that just came in, 3,000 votes less on the lead because it dropped 80-20.

CUOMO: Right here, on our watch, the spread dropped from 30-something thousand to 28,000. We know they are counting 17,000 ballots in Fulton County right now, which is where Atlanta is. If it breaks 80-20, the way we have been seeing, as Phil suggests, that would be about 13,000 votes.

Harry, that's your job, by the way, to count that number.

Harry Enten's supposed to be doing calculations. But it'd be another 13,000 or so votes for Biden. And this number would go down. We got to keep watching.

MATTINGLY: Just keep watching. But that brings me to Pennsylvania. It's the other state we are watching right now.

And why are we watching this state?

What did we do throughout the course of this morning?

We looked at Wisconsin. We looked at Michigan. We watched Donald Trump have very large leads. We watched those leads start to whittle away because the vote by mail that was counted after the Election Day vote, which went heavily Democratic, ate at those leads over the course of the night.

As that count came in, Wisconsin has been called for Vice President Biden. Michigan has been called for Vice President Biden. This morning, when we were last here, this lead was at 650,000 votes for Donald Trump. Right now, it is at 164,000 votes, 50.7 percent to 48.1 percent.

There are roughly -- there are roughly between 700,000 and 800,000 ballots outstanding right now.

So where are those ballots?

What did we see in Wisconsin and Michigan?

You went to the biggest counties, biggest counties, Wayne County in Michigan, Milwaukee County in Wisconsin. And you watch them eat away at that margin almost single-handedly.

That means 30 percent of this vote is outstanding. This is 79-19, 79- 20, if you want to round up a little bit, margin. This is significant vote outstanding in Philadelphia County. This is a significant amount of vote that's heavily Democratic, vote by mail.

The reality right now, not unlike what we saw in Michigan and what we saw in Wisconsin, when you go through these kind of stronger counties for Democrats, Montgomery County, most of it's in. Move over here to Chester County, Democratic county. About 5 percent left over here. Pittsburgh, Allegheny County, right now, about 11 percent, tighter margin.

CUOMO: Any big pot of Republican votes?

MATTINGLY: So here is the issue here. And we saw this last night in both Michigan and Wisconsin. I will take this down. You will see red counties. And these are red counties of strength for President Trump. Not a huge state. Say, all right, we got 28 percent left here. If it stays at this margin, that's going to be a couple thousand votes perhaps the president picks up.

Here is the difference and we saw this repeatedly. Remember, we were doing Kenosha, Brown County --

CUOMO: The president strings them together.

MATTINGLY: Well, no, but on the vote by mail, when it came in --

CUOMO: It was disproportionately Democrat.

MATTINGLY: We don't know that, the composition is up in the air right now but what I am saying is you have got strongholds in southeastern Pennsylvania for Democrats. In the Pittsburgh area, over here as well, even where you see red, if it's coming vote by mail, it is still leaning largely Democratic.

We don't know, given how much is left outstanding, how much is Democratic but the reality in Pennsylvania, as they continue to report votes as they come in, is this lead has shrunk by about 500,000 votes.

And right now, Joe Biden is looking at a similar pathway that he saw in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Now can he close the deal like he did in Wisconsin and Michigan?

We will have to wait and see. But when you talk to Democrats in the state, they feel they have a real pathway here. But they're Democrats in the state. The Trump campaign will tell you we're winning every state here as well.


CUOMO: And, remember, there is an X factor here. There is litigation here. It's went to the Supreme Court, twice. But Pennsylvania put in a rule to allow three more days for mail-in ballots to arrive after the election date, as long as they were postmarked by Election Day.

The president's legal team is saying it should have never happened. That's the decision that he's been talking about. They want to challenge it, again. So there is an X factor.

How many ballots like that come in? They're going to be separated but counted. So we won't know Pennsylvania, for sure, tonight, to be sure. Phil, thank you very much for setting the table, as always.

Let's take a quick break. The numbers have been changing again. We are looking for new information in Arizona and in Georgia. Those states, very well, could make the difference.


CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: All right. You see the state of play there, 253 to 213. We're looking at pathways to victory. We're just checking in with Georgia.


There is some votes that have come in there. We're trying to get the reporting straight on it to figure it out. But the margin is shrinking. The president is still ahead in Georgia.

Paths to victory. Where are we in terms of how many and how various?

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Look, we can dig into the weeds of counties. We can dig into the weeds of vote by mail, what's outstanding. This -- this is what matters. This and who can get above 270 electoral votes is what matters.

As it currently stands, as you noted, 253 for Joe Biden, 2014 for Donald Trump. This is what we've called. Everything that's filled in is what has been called.

And I will go ahead, for the sake of gaming this out, go ahead and say Alaska is pretty much likely going to go to President Trump.


MATTINGLY: So here's where things stand. We can actually -- I'm going to go ahead and give North Carolina. You noted earlier, it's pretty static. The lead has not changed.

CUOMO: Right.

MATTINGLY: It's been sizable. Give North Carolina to President Trump, too. That puts it 253, 232.

Here's the question. If you are the Trump campaign, what is your pathway? The Trump campaign says, We believe we have a shot in Arizona. The Trump campaign says, We're trailing in Nevada by 7,000 votes. We closed that up over the course of yesterday. When the results come in tomorrow, I think 9 a.m. West Coast time is when we're going to start seeing things, we think we're going to close the gap in Nevada. Close the gap in Nevada.


What are you doing right now if you're the Trump campaign? You are not happy with what you're seeing in the state of Pennsylvania. And here's why. If you put this map, as it is right now, you give President Trump North Carolina, you give President Trump Nevada, you give President Trump Arizona, these two are not certainties at all. Joe Biden still leads in both of these places. Joe Biden can still win in both of these places.

And yet, Joe Biden wins the state of Pennsylvania, Joe Biden has 273 electoral votes. The point being, if Joe Biden matches what he did in Wisconsin, and matches what he did in Michigan, and makes up all of that outstanding vote in the state of Pennsylvania, that's all he needs. That's all he needs.

Now if President Trump holds him off in the state of Pennsylvania, President Trump holds him off in the state of Pennsylvania, than he would have to win Nevada. He would have to win Arizona, and he would have to hold off Joe Biden in the state of Georgia.

So let's be very clear. President Trump still has a pathway. President Trump still has a pathway to 270 electoral votes. There's been a lot of this -- of the talk throughout the day --

CUOMO: He has to win one or both of these.

MATTINGLY: He has to win pretty much the entire map from here on out.

CUOMO: I'm saying why we're -- why we are watching Arizona. If the president were to lose Arizona, does he still have a pathway?

MATTINGLY: It's very, very borderline no. So if the president loses Arizona --

CUOMO: Right.

MATTINGLY: -- he has a pathway. Right? This is the pathway. He has to win Pennsylvania.

CUOMO: Pennsylvania.

MATTINGLY: He has to win Georgia.

CUOMO: And North Carolina and Nevada.

MATTINGLY: He has to win North Carolina and Nevada. So Arizona is not -- if he loses Arizona, there's still a pathway.

The problem when you look at the map, if you're at the Trump campaign, is you're trailing in Arizona. You're trailing in Nevada.

CUOMO: Only 7,000.

MATTINGLY: Only 7,000 votes. That's the point.

This is the other combination for the Biden campaign. The two states you are leading in right now, Arizona and Nevada. If you win them --

CUOMO: So you win those two. MATTINGLY: Look.

CUOMO: And then you win.

MATTINGLY: You're at 270.

CUOMO: Even if --

MATTINGLY: Even if you lose Georgia, which is tightening. Even if you lose Pennsylvania, which is tightening. The point being if you are Biden campaign you have multiple pathways. If you're the Trump campaign, you are on a high-wire act right now, and you can not afford to take one false step off.

CUOMO: Now, let me ask you something. When we're looking at these other states, you know, something happens when we do this every time, where you start to get locked into different biases. Not meaning who you want but how you see things.

We keep focusing on Pennsylvania as a place that Biden may win. And I think a lot of people are confused. Why, when it is the biggest spread that he has been facing, even though it's contracting, why isn't Georgia the best bet? You know, why is Pennsylvania a better bet for Biden than Georgia?

MATTINGLY: So to be clear, I'm not -- I'm not ranking what I think --

CUOMO: Right.

MATTINGLY: -- what I think here. I'm going off of what numbers are right now, and I'm going off the experience that we had this morning.

CUOMO: Right.

MATTINGLY: It was quite an acute experience when you watched how Wisconsin shifted and how Michigan shifted. Pennsylvania, very similar in how they count votes, very similar in what's outstanding. They count vote by mail after they counted. The vote by mail went heavily Democratic. And the vote by mail was largely from Democratic strongholds.

Same type of DNA in terms of the outstanding vote, the composition of the vote and when it came in, as Michigan and Wisconsin, both of which went blue. Same type of kind of progression that we've seen over the course of this day as we saw in Michigan and Wisconsin, where hundreds of thousands of votes that made up a lead for President Trump were slowly, throughout the course of time, as votes got counted, whittled away, as those properly-mailed-in votes were counted, properly. Started to go Democratic and eventually flipped for both.

So that's why you look at Pennsylvania like that. That doesn't mean Pennsylvania is more likely to go blue than Georgia or George is more likely to go blue than Pennsylvania. It doesn't mean that President Trump is not going to win Pennsylvania or Georgia right now.

President Trump has pathways in both. He has leads in both, not unlike how Biden has leads in Arizona and Nevada.

What it does means, though, is when you look at the outstanding vote in Georgia and where it comes from, and when you look at the outstanding vote in Pennsylvania and where it comes from, there are pathways for the Biden campaign. They might be fairly clear pathways right now, and we'll have to see how the vote comes in.

I think the bigger question right now, there's -- there's a series -- there's a series of questions of which we don't have answers to right now. Obviously, Pennsylvania, obviously Georgia. We're about to find out right now in Arizona not who's going to win the state but how this breaks down and whether or not Joe Biden can hold onto his lead. And in Nevada, we'll find out tomorrow.

CUOMO: So let's bootstrap your already cogent case, counselor, about Pennsylvania and the DNA of how things work there, and why it portends a potential change in the state of play there from the president, maybe to Joe Biden.

Kristen Powers is at our voting desk and looking at it. Kristen Holmes, sorry. Kristen Holmes is looking at it from the desk. Sorry about that. I'm all tired. We're all tired, Kristen. I apologize.

So you're looking at it at the voting desk. Take us deeper into Pennsylvania, please, with an analysis of what's outstanding and how the state of play there may play to Biden's favor.

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right. And I do want to start with this. I've been talking to Pennsylvania officials all day long, and they are feeling very good about the numbers in that state.


So when it comes to mail-in ballots, there are still 765,000 outstanding mail-in ballots that need to be counted. Remember this: 2.6 absentee mail-in ballots were sent into the state of Pennsylvania. They were not able to start processing, to start counting until 7 a.m. yesterday, and we knew they were going to be huge delays in the state because of that.

Now, in particular, we're looking at Philadelphia. This margin right here: 120,000 mail-in ballot left to be counted. As we know, Philadelphia here is a Democratic stronghold. We expect these numbers to come in for Biden.

And we do want to go over why we expect that in particular. Does every single mail-in ballot end up going Democratic? No. But in the state of Pennsylvania, it's interesting to see the statistics here.

Seventy percent of registered Democrats -- excuse me, the mail-in ballots were from 70 percent of registered Democrats, whereas only 20 percent were registered Republicans. And as we've been watching these returns come in, as you and Phil have been talking about this, we saw a 700,000-vote margin last night. It is getting infinitely smaller as we are seeing more and more of these votes come in. And it's really starting to align with that 70 percent number that we saw.

Again, is every mail-in ballot mean that it is a Democratic vote? Absolutely not. But they are skewing Democratic particularly in the state of Pennsylvania. So that's what we're watching closely.

The other one to watch here is I'm going to go back to my last map to show you. We're still waiting for the final results out of Allegheny County. That is another Democratic stronghold. We do not have all of the mail-in ballots that have been counted there. Another one we're watching closely, see if we'll get those results later tonight.

And I want to mention one other thing about Pennsylvania. I forgot this when I was on the air. We are told that they might have a big update overnight. So as we're waiting for Arizona, potentially Georgia, we also keep our eye on Philadelphia -- Chris.

CUOMO: Kristen Holmes, thank you very much. Appreciate it. So Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, and now we understand better why. Our thanks to Kristen for that.

Phil, you put those numbers into the hopper. We'll figure out what it means for the state of play.

Let's take a break. We're going to keep our eyes on these states. We're expecting new information, so please, stay with us.



DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: All right. We've been looking at the vote totals come in, and all the counties around all the countries [SIC] -- country, and all the states.

I want to bring in -- let's have a conversation and talk about what people are talking about at home, as they are sitting here, watching us, talking to their friends, texting. Some of my friends are here: Bakari Sellers, Alice Stewart, Ryan Lizza. We have been texting, as well.

Alice, I've got to ask you, as you've been sitting here and we've been watching what's happening in Georgia. We've been watching what's happening in Pennsylvania, and even Nevada and Arizona. What path does -- the president has one path. One path. How do you feel about that?

ALICE STEWART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I do think it's strong in Georgia, and there's, you know, several factors that play here. I grew up in Dekalb County, spent most of my childhood driving into Fulton County to see the Braves games, and I can tell you those counties are certainly critical for any election. And absolutely this one. And it's important to count all the ballots, and it's encouraging to see that.

There's also another pocket of votes that are important down in Savannah, in Chatham County. And what's happening is, we're wanting people to count all the ballots, but we have the Georgia Republican Party. I've got friends at the secretary of state's office in Georgia, as well as the Republican Party in Georgia. And the Republican Party is keeping a close eye on a lot of these places where they're counting the ballots. There has been some concern about how the ballots are being handled.

But the good thing, Don, and we can all agree, is reassurance from the secretary of state, as we're hearing from secretaries of state across the country, is that every legal ballot will be counted, every legitimate ballot will be counted. And we just need to be patient and wait and let the officials do their job.

And as -- as we've said, a lot of these folks we're seeing in this video, these are volunteers. They're doing it out of their civic duty to help in our democracy, which is precious and valuable for all Americans. We just need to be patient.

LEMON: That makes some -- that makes what's happening in Arizona all the more deserving, because these people are volunteering. They're doing their civic duty and doing something that many of us wouldn't -- wouldn't do.

I think these are the ultimate American patriots who are out there, trying to make sure that we -- that everyone's right to vote, our constitutional right, is handled properly.

It is disturbing to see what's happening, Bakari, in Arizona, with these protesters. Because they should be out cheering these people on, not trying to stop the vote.

BAKARI SELLERS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: You know, it's a bit of irony. I'm kind of confused. I want to tell Trump supporters to pick your struggle.

Like, here in Maricopa County, you're at the place where they're counting ballots. You're telling them to count ballots. You're chanting, literally, "Count the ballots."

And then in other states, you're saying, "Stop the count."

I'm so confused by the struggle that many of these Trump supporters want to choose. But -- but Don, one of the things of tonight, what all of my friends are talking about, what we're all texting each other about is the fact that Joe Biden is on the brink of being president of the United States.

And again, it's black folk in Milwaukee. It's black folk in Philadelphia. It's black folk in Detroit. It's black folk in Atlanta, turning up like it's Freaknik again in the mid-Nineties. I mean, it is -- it is -- it is black people who are coming out again, who are about to save a democracy that simply has not loved them back over decades, over years, over centuries.

And so I think that, while the Democrats, while we have done a lot of bed-wetting, while we have a lot of consternation over the past -- you know, last night I received so many text messages. I just told people to go to sleep.


I think that you're on the verge of having a new day, but it's the same coalition that brought you here. And so while Trump supporters are not picking a struggle, while in certain states they want us to count the ballots, in other states they want us to stop the count. I think that what Alice and I and Ryan, as well, will all agree with is simply this. Every legal ballot should be counted, and let the chips fall where they may, if that's Philadelphia or if that's Phoenix.

LEMON: Yes. Hey, Ryan, listen. If you look at Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, I'm going to read off some things here, because in Nevada, postmarked ballots can be counted if received by November 10. Right?

And you have Arizona, where the secretary of state might not get the final results until Friday. And you know what's happening in Arizona. We've been showing the pictures all night.

And then Georgia, a candidate can ask for a recount if the margin of victory is less than half of one percent. Let me -- You have Pennsylvania, sorting things there in North Carolina.

Well, then now, the Trump -- the Trump folks are saying legal, legal, legal. We're going to take this to the courts. When I know -- I know Alice just mentioned, well, you know, there's some concern about what's happening in Georgia. But there's no evidence that there is any fraud, or anything untoward going on when it comes to counting these ballots.

RYAN LIZZA, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: No, there's not so far. I mean, I think they're -- they're pursuing two things, pursuing a kind of public campaign that's just throwing out accusations of a rigged election, and -- and fraud without any -- without backing that up in any way. When they actually file some of these lawsuits, some of the law -- you can't go into court with just a complete B.S. argument. So they do have some things they're saying.

LEMON: Also Ryan, if you believe that you're going to win, right, they're saying, We feel strongly about this. We feel strongly about that?

Why not just let the ballots be counted if you think you're going to win, does it -- it's counterintuitive.

LIZZA: The whole legal challenge is about preventing the mail-in balloting that was expanded in all of these states because of the pandemic. Is preventing, in various states, in various ways, trying to prevent those ballots from being counted because they are likely to be more Democratic. That's what's going on in Pennsylvania. That's what the case that went up to the Supreme Court and came back down, because the state is allowing three days after election day to get those ballots in, if they're -- if they're postmarked.

Kayleigh McEnany was on another network, saying they should all just be thrown out. So you have the Trump campaign on the record now, saying that legitimate ballots that are we -- where local law says they are legitimate, should be thrown out. And as Bakari said, you have them pursuing two different strategies:

count them here, don't count them there. I remember covering the 2000 recount, when the Bush campaign, they would -- they would not pursue legal arguments where they contradicted each other in one place and another. You know, that was one sort of a quainter time, I guess. Well --

LEMON: They wanted Florida, because they wanted one single argument that could stand up, rather than contradicting each other in different -- in different states.

I want you guys to stand by, because -- because we want to talk about some of the legal ramifications, and what's going on.

I mean, Chris, I saw an email come over today where Trump surrogates were holding impromptu press conferences and talking about reasons why all these ballots should be thrown out and why they're going to court. There's going to be legal action. And it was one of the most absurd things that I've ever read in an email. Their rationale for lawsuits in these states.

CUOMO: Legally, they are an impressive. What they are playing on is fear.

LEMON: They do have the right to ask for recounts. I'm not -- Right?

CUOMO: Absolutely. If they have a votes with any certain margin, you have a right to ask for a recount, but that's not what they're arguing.

LEMON: Right.

CUOMO: They're -- they may -- they may argue that in states, and that would be completely consistent with the democracy. But what they're saying is basically, we don't like the system. And because we don't like it, we're going to say not just that we don't like it, but that makes it illegal, that we don't like it. Now what does that sound like?

LEMON: You can't say I'm going to abide by the Constitution and the laws, and, you know, everyone should be given their right to vote, and then tell people we need to stop certain votes from being counted. It does not make sense.

CUOMO: It doesn't make sense, and there's no reason to even analyze it in that high-minded way. It's just I'll tell you who says something like that. Donald Trump.

LEMON: Right.

CUOMO: Donald Trump says, I don't like what Don Lemon reported. I'm going to sue him, sue CNN, and sue everybody else.

When I investigated his net worth a decade or so ago with Chris Vlasto, the head of investigations at ABC News and the whole team there. Donald Trump threatened to sue not just us for the reporting, because

he didn't like what we are reporting about his net worth. I smile because I still can't believe this happened. He threatened to sue me. Vlasto, my parents, are in a letter saying. He wants to sue my mother, damning me back to the womb, for doing the reporting.


LEMON: Chris, I'm not surprised. He's very litigious, and that is -- he's also encouraged people around him to be the same way, and even his supporters. And it's just -- it's absolutely ridiculous. As you, know, you and I both know, he gets into these lawsuits. He waits it out for people to spend a lot of money, hoping that they're going to settle, and that's really how he gets through them. Doesn't pay them, what have you. That is the reporting, and you have witnessed that through your reporting.

So I'm not surprised that you're saying that. It is ridiculous, but I'm not surprised.

CUOMO: So let's do this. You know, the instruction from both of us has been you've got to ignore the noise. All right. So we're going to pot down the noise. We're going to pot up the Boies, as in David Boies. We remember him, a brilliant litigator. He represented Al Gore and the famous/infamous, based on your perspective, case in 2000. Bush v. Gore.

Counselor, thank you for joining us to go through the permutations of thought of any potential litigation here.


CUOMO: Their main one is, Hey, this is the same as Bush v. Gore. So Democrats would be fine with this. You have these states all doing different crazy things with these ballots, and the early votes, and they're rife with fraud. And they're all doing it different ways. It's horrible. It's unconstitutional. You, sir?

BOIES: Remember, first of all, every state can do it differently. The Constitution provides that. The argument Bush v. Gore was that within a state, you had to do it consistently.

And there's not any argument here that any state is doing something inconsistently within that state. But the constitution enables states to make up whatever rules they want, within reason, as long as they don't discriminate in terms of how to select the electors.

The states, for example, can have mail-in ballots, or not mail-in ballots.

CUOMO: Right.

BOIES: Meaning, they could have mail-in ballots do on election day, or they can give them, like Nevada does, an extra week. That's entirely up to the individual states. So the argument that different states are doing it differently is

legally irrelevant here.

CUOMO: So the next poll in the tent of their potential litigation is, Oh, yes? Look at Pennsylvania. The legislature didn't come up with that rule. Some court did, and that's not fair. And now they just created this safe harbor for early votes to come in days after the election, rife with opportunities for fraud when you do this. The more time you give, the more chance for fraud.

BOIES: They've made this argument twice in the United States Supreme Court. And both times, the United States Supreme Court has rejected it.

And it's rejected it for a very simple reason. And that is that courts all the time in elections, adapt rules that legislators have enacted. For example, it's routine, when something happens that makes it useful to do so, courts extend the voting deadline. Polls supposed to close at 7, they keep it open until 8, 9, 10 p.m. at night in order to allow people to vote.

For example, in this election, the Trump campaign went into Clark County, Nevada, to get the court to keep the polls open an extra hour. Analytically, there's no difference between having a court saying, We're going to modify the legislatively-enacted poll closing hour, and say, We're going to allow people extra time to get their ballots in, because there's a problem with the post office or a problem with COVID-19.

CUOMO: OK. Well, it's interesting you mention the post office. There is some potential legitimate litigation shaping up at the postal service. The postal service really doesn't get its job done. And it could be construed as misfeasance or malfeasance. Let's put that to the side.

The other leg on the Pennsylvania litigation is, OK, OK, I hear you on when. If you want to extend it because of some exigency, fine, but you're also changing how. And you don't even have to match the signatures. And that's where the fraud comes and, Counselor. You don't even want to match the signatures? So anybody could turn in the ballot. You won't even know if it's the right person. You can harvest ballots. Terrible. Pennsylvania is setting us up for cheating.

BOIES: Remember, the so-called harvesting the ballots is not anything that is illegal, depending on how you define it. Sometimes what they mean harvesting the ballots is how they're collected. The state is determining how they're collected. And the state has the entire power of the Constitution to do that.

With respect to the matching of the signatures, if they have an objection to a particular signature, they have an opportunity to make that objection.

You saw, for example, earlier today how they were setting out -- I think this was in Georgia -- how they were going through the process.