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India faces uncertain political future

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May 21, 1996
Web posted at: 12:45 p.m. EDT (1545 GMT)

From India Bureau Chief Anita Pratap

NEW DELHI, India (CNN) -- Compromise and uncertainty are the order of the hour on the fractured Indian political scene.

Across this vast nation of over 900 million people, the hot topic of debate is whether the new government formed by the Bharatiya Janata Party can survive a parliamentary vote of confidence scheduled by President Shankar Dayal Sharma for May 31.

BJP

The BJP's minority government has the support of fewer than 200 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabah or lower house of parliament.

But the other major parties, the Congress Party and the recently renamed United Front coalition of center-left and Communist parties, have even smaller numbers in parliament. The hopelessly divided political landscape is resulting in strange bedfellows.

BJP woes Muslims

Vajpayee

The Hindu-nationalist BJP set off to prove that it has not forgotten India's 110 million-person Muslim minority or the independent minded people of Kashmir or any other special-interest group that could provide the support it needs to retain the reins of government.

BJP Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has gone so far as to forsake some of his party's pillars of policy in hopes of bringing together enough votes to save his infant government.

In recent days, Vajpayee has said he has no problem using English as an official language in India, a major concession to interests in the crucial southern state of Tamil Nadu.

Non-Kashmiris would lose

The surprise was perhaps even greater when the prime minister was quoted as saying that his government would not seek the repeal of Article 370 in the Indian Constitution. That section bars non-Kashmiris from buying land in the northern state of Jammu and Kashmir. Repeal of the article has long been an article of faith in the BJP.

And in the formation of his cabinet, Vajpayee has worked to send moderate signals to the public and parliament. Muslim Sikander Bakht was appointed foreign minister Tuesday.

The appointment is a significant signal to India's largest minority group, even though it is believed that Vajpayee was holding the post as a plum for potential parliamentary allies.

His disparate position in parliament meant he could find no takers. Bakht, a senior BJP figure, already had taken the job of minister for urban affairs and employment, but was believed to be unhappy with the assignment.

Vajpayee glum

waving

The first major cracks in the new government began appearing Tuesday.

Vajpayee admitted his government was weak in an interview with the Times of India. He sounded pessimistic as he acknowledged a pledge by the defeated Congress Party and the United Front to bring down his government.

Bitter enemies on the campaign trail, the Congress Party and the United Front see the BJP's Hindu message as a threat to India's secular tradition since independence. The center and left-wing parties blame the BJP for riots last year that led to the death of 3,000 mostly Muslim Indians and the destruction of a mosque.

The United Front and Congress Party control more than half of the seats in parliament and seem determined to put aside their differences and bring down what they see as the common enemy.

Sharma to speak

Although defeat is almost certainly just around the corner for Vajpayee and the BJP, no one is really certain what will happen. Indian politics are at this moment highly fluid. And even if the Hindu nationalist government is brought down, it is not clear if Congress and the United Front can join forces to actually form a government.

Rao

Vajpayee isn't looking much farther than this Friday when Sharma will speak to parliament. The speech is believed to be a showcase of BJP policies and proposals.

Sharma is expected to invite either former Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao or H.D. Deve Gowda, leader of the United Front, to form a government if Vajpayee and the BJP's efforts fail to save their position at the top.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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