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Despite calm, flashpoints remain in Iraq
Turkish actions complicate the conflict
September 6, 1996
Web posted at: 7:30 p.m. EDT (2330 GMT)From Correspondent Peter Arnett
BAGHDAD (CNN) -- One of the more vivid indications that life is beginning to return to normal in Iraq is the reappearance on Baghdad's state-owned television network of soap operas, replacing the nationalistic programming that was broadcast after American missiles struck Iraqi targets earlier this week.
But there is still plenty of tension beneath the surface in Iraq, and it could quickly ignite, setting off another and perhaps more deadly conflict.
Consider Saddam's threat to shoot down Allied planes patrolling the "no-fly zone" in southern Iraq as part of Operation Southern Watch. Even though American missiles destroyed much of Iraq's anti-aircraft capacity, there's no guarantee the Iraqis won't succeed in downing a war plane over their territory.
If a U.S. plane were to go down, President Clinton would likely retaliate with a heavy hand, and the crisis could escalate from there.
Or, there could be a flare-up in northern Iraq, where Turkey is seeking to establish a security zone six miles inside Iraq. Turkey is trying to prevent attacks from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which wants to set up its own state in the Kurdish region of Turkey. This week, Turkey ordered additional troops to guard its border with Iraq as part of its campaign against the PKK.
Iraq adamantly opposes Turkeyıs expanded security zone, and it's also an issue that has split the Western Allies.
Washington said it doesn't oppose Turkey's desire for a larger security zone, but France opposes the idea.
Saddam has worked hard to cultivate these cracks in the Western military alliance, and he can claim several recent successes on the diplomatic front.
A U.N. resolution condemning the Iraqi army's incursion into Kurdistan failed Friday after Russia opposed it and Britain gave up on the measure.
Egypt, India, China and Indonesia are among several large nations that have expressed opposition to the recent U.S. attack.
Saddam can also claim a sort of military gain. He is keeping troops in northern Iraq, with spies and secret police in the key Kurdish city of Irbil, and tanks and other heavy equipment stationed about 15 miles south at the 36th parallel, the edge of the "no-fly zone."
But the current situation offers plenty of peril for Saddam as well.
The U.S. could impose a "no-fly zone" over all of Iraq if Saddam shoots down an Allied plane or provokes another fight in Kurdistan. That would prevent air travel over Baghdad, and would further constrain Iraq's military.
And because there's still plenty of opposition to Iraq's incursion into Kurdistan, there's an increased likelihood that its food-for-oil deal, pending with the U.N., may be delayed, or scuttled altogether.
In any event, there is no shortage of anti-American sentiment in Iraq. And, at best, the uneasy calm in Iraq could be jeopardized by any number of factors.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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