India appears headed for coalition government

Exit polls show BJP lacks majority to govern

February 28, 1998
Web posted at: 2:46 p.m. EST (1946 GMT)

NEW DELHI, India (CNN) -- Exit poll results from Saturday's parliamentary elections in India showed Hindu nationalists winning the most seats but not the majority required to form a new government.

Based on poll results, state-run Doordashan television predicted after voting ended in the last main phase of the staggered election that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies would win 244 seats in the 545-member lower house, or Lok Sabha.

The BJP's arch-rival Congress party was far behind with 140 seats, and the outgoing United Front coalition was expected to end up with 118 seats. Five seats have yet to be decided.

The exit poll suggested that the BJP, traditionally strong in the north and west but enjoying significant growth since the early 1980s, had successfully expanded into new geographical areas.

However, another exit poll broadcast by the private TVI television station gave the BJP and its allies a lead that was far smaller than expected over Congress.

According to that poll, the BJP and its allies would win 208 seats, Congress and its partners 171 seats and the incumbent United Front coalition, 140. The poll had a margin of error of 10 seats.

The party or group that forms the next government must occupy at least 272 seats in the lower house. And observers say the key to who will form the next government could be held by a collection of previously unaffiliated minor regional parties, which might hold the balance of power.

Vote counting was officially to begin Monday, and a new government is to be in place by the middle of next month, well before the current budget expires on March 31.

A boycott called by Kashmiri separatists curbed voting in Srinagar on Saturday, and three people were reported killed in insurgency-linked violence. Kashmiris appeared to heed the boycott call as voters emerged in only nervous trickles.

Economy a top concern

The exit polls came after 140 million registered voters were called on to cast their ballots for 131 parliamentary districts in the key final phase of the country's staggered election process.

Voter turnout in strife-torn Kashmir was 37 percent, far below the latest round's national average of 50 percent, the independent Election Commission said.

Overall, 600 million voters in India were eligible to vote for the lower house, and most of the voters had cast their ballots in previous rounds of voting, which started February 16.

The elections were called three years ahead of schedule after the Congress party -- which governed India for most of its 50 years of independence -- withdrew support from the minority United Front coalition government in December.

Whatever the make-up of the new government, the new administration will have to address urgent economic issues.

Economic growth, after reaching an average 7 percent a year following initial free-market reforms in the early 1990s, suffered a setback when it began falling under the United Front government.

Growth is now around 5.5 percent, while the rupee, also hit by turmoil in Asian markets, plummeted to a record low at the end of 1997.

"The first challenge (for the new government) will be to increase demand, step up public expenditure, keep down the fiscal deficit and push through the bills which were held up," said V. Raghuraman, secretary-general of the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India.

The centrist Congress party, which launched sweeping reforms in 1991, is sticking to its pro-reform platform. It has pledged to open up the economy to outside investment, including loosening controls on the state-controlled insurance sector.

The BJP champions economic nationalism and has promised to shield domestic industry from international competition. The party said it would restrict international direct investment to non-priority areas.

New Delhi Bureau Chief Anita Pratap, The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

Related stories:

• India's Hindu nationalists win local confidence vote - February 26, 1998
• Violence climbs in India election - February 23, 1998
• Troubles mount as India launches 2nd voting round - February 22, 1998
• India elections under way - February 15, 1998

Related sites:

Note: Pages will open in a new browser window

• Bharatiya Janata Party,India
• Indian National Congress
• Election Commission of India
• Press Trust of India
• IndoNet
• Indian Politics: The Economic Times
• Hindustan Times

External sites are not endorsed by CNN Interactive.

---

 

---

Sound off on our message boards & chat

© 1998 Cable News Network, Inc.
A Time Warner Company
All Rights Reserved.

Terms under which this service is provided to you.
Read our privacy guidelines.