First exit polls in India put BJP in lead

February 28, 1998
Web posted at: 10:02 a.m. EST (1502 GMT)

NEW DELHI, India (CNN) -- Initial exit poll results from India's parliamentary elections Saturday showed the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as the dominant force in the key state of Uttar Pradesh, but the party was still expected to fall short of a majority in the federal parliament.

The poll results, carried by state television, showed the BJP taking well over two-thirds of the 85 seats that Uttar Pradesh represents in the 543-member lower house.

This suggested a popularity gain for the BJP in this key state but also appeared to corroborate pre-election surveys, which suggested the BJP likely would fall short of the majority needed to form a new government.

Overall, the poll predicted the BJP and its allied parties would win 208 of the 543 contested seats in the lower house of parliament, while the Congress Party and several small allied parties would win 171. The incumbent United Front coalition would win 140.

Vote counting was officially to begin on Monday, and a new government is to be in place by the middle of next month, well before the current budget expires on March 31.

Economy a top concern

The exit polls came after 140 million registered voters were called on to cast their ballots for 131 parliamentary districts in the key final phase of the country's staggered election process.

Voter turnout in strife-torn Kashmir was 37 percent, far below the latest round's national average of 50 percent, the independent Election Commission said.

Overall, 600 million voters in India were eligible to vote for the lower house, and most of the voters had cast their ballots in previous rounds of voting, which started February 16.

The elections were called three years ahead of schedule after the Congress party -- which governed India for most of its 50 years of independence -- withdrew support from the minority United Front coalition government in December.

Saturday's exit polls indicated Congress had done better than suggested by pre-election surveys.

Whatever the make-up of the new government, the new administration will have to address urgent economic issues.

Economic growth, after reaching an average 7 percent a year following initial free-market reforms in the early 1990s, suffered a setback when it began falling under the United Front government.

Growth is now around 5.5 percent, while the rupee, also hit by turmoil in Asian markets, plummeted to a record low at the end of 1997.

"The first challenge (for the new government) will be to increase demand, step up public expenditure, keep down the fiscal deficit and push through the bills which were held up," said V. Raghuraman, secretary-general of the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India.

The centrist Congress party, which launched sweeping reforms in 1991, is sticking to its pro-reform platform. It has pledged to open up the economy to outside investment, including loosening controls on the state-controlled insurance sector.

The BJP champions economic nationalism and has promised to shield domestic industry from international competition. The party said it would restrict international direct investment to non-priority areas.

New Delhi Bureau Chief Anita Pratap, The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

Related stories:

• India's Hindu nationalists win local confidence vote - February 26, 1998
• Violence climbs in India election - February 23, 1998
• Troubles mount as India launches 2nd voting round - February 22, 1998
• India elections under way - February 15, 1998

Related sites:

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• Bharatiya Janata Party,India
• Press Trust of India
• Indian Politics: The Economic Times
• Hindustan Times

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