November 22, 1999
Web posted at: 6:37 p.m. EST (2337 GMT)

In this story: Clinton: Diplomatic mission must go ahead Refugees moving in both directions RELATED STORIES, SITES

SLEPTSOVSKAYA, Russia (CNN) -- As Russia's army closes its grip on Grozny, up to 6,000 Chechen militants will abandon the Chechen capital rather than face an all-out battle, a top Russian officer predicted Monday.

That would match a pattern followed in the weeks since the military campaign began in September. The outgunned Chechens have regularly retreated rather than confront the larger and more heavily armed Russian troops.

By massing a larger force, estimated by Chechen media at 100,000 troops, and advancing slowly, Russia has avoided the heavy losses suffered during its bloody defeat by Chechen separatists in the 1994-96 war.

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Russian commanders are betting Grozny will fall in a similar fashion. Gen. Anatoly Kvashnin, chief of the army's general staff, said he believes the city's civilians do not want to see widespread destruction and will urge the militants to withdraw, allowing the Russians to seize the city without heavy fighting.

"People will sort it out with the bandits, and we will help them do so," Kvashnin told the NTV television station.

But the Chechen capital may be an exceptionally tough objective. Grozny is Chechnya's most important city and the rebels may dig in and defend it regardless of the cost, some analysts say.

Kvashnin stressed that his troops would not try to storm the capital.

Clinton: Diplomatic mission must go ahead

Russian aircraft and artillery have been pummeling the city for weeks, and Russian forces already have surrounded 80 percent of the city, according to the military.

The Russians expect to have it completely encircled by early December, the Interfax news agency said, citing Russian military sources in Mozdok, the main military base just to the west of Chechnya.

Meanwhile, a spokesman for U.S. President Bill Clinton said Monday that while the White House expects the military campaign in Chechnya to continue, the president hopes a planned diplomatic mission to the region will be allowed to go ahead.

National Security Adviser Samuel Berger said Clinton, who was wrapping up a trip to Bulgaria, expects the Russians to keep a commitment, made last week at an international summit, to allow the chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to visit Chechnya.

Berger said the United States hopes the mission will be more than humanitarian in nature. But in private conversations, U.S. officials said there is no evidence that Russia is ready to allow any form of mediation or political dialogue on Chechnya.

And although the Russians agreed to the OSCE mission, it is still unclear when it will begin or what form it will take.

Refugees moving in both directions

Meanwhile, thousands of civilians have been caught up in the mounting crisis.

Fighting bitter winds and snow, hundreds of refugees returned from the neighboring Russian republic of Ingushetia over the weekend, while a larger number of Chechens fled in the opposite direction across the mountainous border.

The federal forces have released no casualty figures in recent days. The death toll estimates for soldiers, rebels and civilians vary greatly and cannot be independently confirmed.

Producer Sol Levine, Correspondent Steve Harrigan, The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

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