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The ultra-Orthodox are expected to throw their lot behind Netanyahu Monday

May 14, 1999
Web posted at: 7:56 p.m. EDT (2356 GMT)

In this story: Runoff difficult to predict Mordechai pressured to withdraw RELATED STORIES, SITES

JERUSALEM (CNN) -- With his biggest challenger holding a commanding lead in the polls, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu campaigned feverishly Friday to win enough votes in Monday's general election to force a runoff.

A Gallup poll published in the Maariv daily on Friday gave Labor leader Ehud Barak 48.5 percent of the vote in a five-way race, just short of the 50 percent needed to win the election outright. Netanyahu received 35.5 percent, Centrist Party candidate Yitzhak Mordechai 4.6 percent, Israeli-Arab candidate Azmi Bishara 2.5 percent and right-wing challenger Benny Begin 2.1 percent.

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However, the poll brings Barak within a hair of victory if Bishara drops out of the running. Bishara, who said he never expected to win but wanted to raise issues important to Arabs, said he may pull out after negotiations with Barak's representatives.

Another newspaper, Yediot Ahronot, showed Barak leading by a smaller margin of 44 percent to Netanyahu's 38 percent, in the first round.

Runoff difficult to predict

Press reports said Netanyahu has told his inner circle that he could still win if he faces Barak in a runoff election June 1.

Barak's supporters acknowledged that a runoff could make the race difficult to predict. Key Barak aide Shlomo Ben-Ami told CNN that a second round would be "problematic" because no one knows if smaller groups like the ultra-Orthodox, who have supported Netanyahu, or the Arabs, who have supported Labor, will turn out to vote.

Despite his low poll numbers, Mordechai pledged Friday to remain in the race.

"I am not deterred by the results of this or that poll," he told a party rally late Thursday. "The election is the real poll."

Mordechai pressured to withdraw

Liberal, secular Israelis have shown support for Barak

Mordechai has come under increased pressure to withdraw to improve Barak's chances of winning the first round. In declaring his candidacy in the spring, Mordechai said one of his key objectives was to remove Netanyahu from power. Mordechai, who was fired by Netanyahu as defense minister in February, has portrayed the prime minister as unreliable and untrustworthy.

Security, the sluggish Israeli economy, religion, and peace with the Palestinians remain issues that sway voters, but Israelis have been telling pollsters they don't see dramatic differences in the policies of Netanyahu and Barak, Israel's most decorated soldier. The issue, many poll respondents say, is that they don't trust Netanyahu to carry out those policies.

Netanyahu has contended publicly that the polls are wrong, just as they were in 1996 when he staged a come-from-behind victory to defeat Labor Party candidate Shimon Peres by just over 29,000 votes.

In that race, however, Netanyahu positioned his campaign to unite disparate groups and captured the middle of the Israeli political spectrum. This time, two of his groups of supporters, the ultra-Orthodox and the immigrants, are at odds. Pollsters say that the largest immigrant group, the Russians, are deserting Netanyahu's Likud for Barak's One Israel alliance in increasing numbers.

Correspondent Jerrold Kessel and The Associated Press contributed to this report.