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January 27, 2000
Web posted at: 1:44 p.m. EDT

(CNN) -- David Fromkin, Professor of History and International Relations at Boston University and author of "Kosovo Crossing," joined the CNN.com chat room on January 27, 2000, to discuss the historic background of the Balkan region.

The chat was part of a series that examined the climate of Kosovo since the bombings in Yugoslavia by NATO forces, and the future prospects for peace.

The following is an edited transcript of the chat with Fromkin, who participated by telephone from New York. CNN.com provided a typist for him.

Chat Moderator: Thank you for joining us today David Fromkin and welcome to chat.

Chat Moderator: In your book, you talk about the struggle between power and idealism. Can you elaborate on that issue, in terms of the United State's involvement in Kosovo?

David Fromkin: I believe that the principle motives for American intervention in Kosovo were humanitarian and idealistic. There are people who believe that on the contrary, the US was pursuing national interests of one sort or another. But I disagree with that point of view. I believe that our reasons were largely humanitarian.

Chat Moderator: Should the Unites States have been involved in the NATO campaign against the Serbs, and the subsequent peacekeeping mission in Kosovo?

David Fromkin: If I had been president at the time, I would not have intervened. But answering your question as of today, rather than as of that time, I would be more inclined to say that at least in our immediate humanitarian goals, our intervention has been largely successful. And therefore that we were lucky. We ran too many risks, but it turned out ok. So you can see that my answer is different today than it would have been at the time the decision was made.

Chat Moderator: Kosovo appears to be just the latest in a set of long-term military commitments the U.S. has been drawn into. Would you care to comment on this apparent cycle?

David Fromkin: In particular, since 1989, and the dissolution of the Soviet Empire, the US has appeared to be free to militarily intervene anywhere in the world. But I think that to a considerable extent that freedom is illusory. Indeed, much of my book is devoted to suggesting the kinds of limits that exist in the real world. And the conclusion of the book is that we should rarely mount interventions such as the one in Kosovo. It is the exception. The rule is that we should not intervene.

Chat Moderator: What do you believe is the greatest threat to peace and stability in Kosovo and the region?

David Fromkin: The clash of the nationalist goals of the peoples in the region with America's stated goal of creating multi-ethnic societies.

Question from nutzzz: How do you compare [U.S. involvement] between Kosovo and Vietnam?

David Fromkin: The two are very different. And indeed they are so different that it is difficult to make a meaningful comparison. In Vietnam, the US intervened for what it perceived to be reasons of important national interest. Indeed, there were many that believed that vital American interests were at stake. To that end, the US committed large forces and significant resources. I disagreed at the time and continue to disagree now with the proposition that American interests WERE at stake in that conflict. So I think our intervention in Vietnam was wrong and costly and damaging. By way of contrast, the Kosovo expedition was mounted for humanitarian reasons. And we have not committed major resources to it. Nor do I believe that we are likely to be damaged by it in any significant way. So the two are very different events. Tied together, in my judgement, only by the fact that, had I been president, I would not have intervened in either case.

THE PRESENT • Kosovo Journal • Situation Report • Reporter's Notebook • Missed Opportunities • Map: KFOR Troop Deployments • News report archive

Question from MARS_LANDER_FLYER: The Serbs say that Kosovo crises were its internal business, and that NATO bombing has increased nationalism in the region.

David Fromkin: In traditional foreign policy thinking, Serbia is right to believe that its internal affairs are nobody's business but its own. But in the world of the late 20th century, many believe that certain kinds of wrongs are too horrible for the modern world to allow. And that mass murder is among them. I think that most Americans believe that there is some kind of conduct so terrible that our country should step in to prevent it. The Serbs would have been correct in staking out that position 100 years ago. But not today.

Chat Moderator: Can the Kosovo mission be considered a success?

David Fromkin: The Kosovo Mission looks to be largely a success in terms of its immediate humanitarian goals. But my guess is that it will be a failure in terms of our government's stated political goal of establishing a peaceful multi ethnic society in which Kosovo will remain a part of Serbia.

Chat Moderator: Any predictions on the future of Slobodon Milosevic?

David Fromkin: He is wily and tenacious. And my guess is that he will cling to power for a longer period than most people seem to think. But that is only a guess on my part.

Question from Gator: Can you clarify the different Islamic groups in Kosovo and the Balkans? For example, contrast the Albanian Muslims with others in Kosovo with those in Bosnia.

David Fromkin: There isn't very much I can say about it except that I believe that the motive forces at work in the Balkans, even when they appear to be religious in nature, are really nationalistic and ethnic rather than religious. Within the Muslim communities, I don't think that there is any important schism that has immediate political importance.

Question from Haley: Mr. Fromkin do you believe there is a reasonable chance that Milosevic will ever be in front of the Tribunal in Hague?

David Fromkin: It is anybody's guess. But he is a survivor, has shown great cleverness. And he would have to make a bad mistake to allow himself to be caught outside his own territory. But people do make mistakes. And if he does make one, I think there will be strong pressures for him to be placed on trial.

Question from Allen: Do you think the current Kosovo local leadership has the ability to establish a functional government in the next few years, aided by the west of course.

David Fromkin: Judging from the outside as I must do, it doesn't look as though the opposition is ready to effectively take power. There seems to be a great deal of disunity among them, and also a certain lack of toughness.

David Fromkin: Milosevic demonstrates again and again that he has the toughness to hold on to power and to use power, while the opposition seems afraid or hesitant. But I have to stress that that is just an outsider's view of matters.

Question from historybuff: You use the term 'cling to power' for Milosevic, it has been over used with Yeltsin too.. but why doesn't anyone say that about Clinton? Surely it applies to most world leaders.

David Fromkin: It applies to most of the world's leaders only if you believe that they ought to quit. There are many countries in the world in which it is not the case that I believe that their government should quit. I don't think that President Clinton should have quit.

Question from Gator: Please explain the role/import of the gypsies, the Roma, in the region. Are they from Romania?

David Fromkin: So far as I know, nobody knows for sure where the gypsies came from. But a prevalent theory is that they came long ago from India. They have been persecuted throughout the ages and have continued to be persecuted in the 20th century. But we hear little about them and their problems in our news media for whatever reason. And I, myself, know very little about them.

Question from MARS_LANDER_FLYER: Arkan in an interview, said that he never killed any civilian Croats and Moslems, he just killed Croats and Moslem soldiers, why was he declared a war criminal?

David Fromkin: Because people don't believe him.

Chat Moderator: How do you think history will view the NATO campaign and UN mission in Kosovo?

David Fromkin: Historians being historians, they will emphasize many of the mistakes we made. To me, one of the things that stands out is the fact that for the first time, NATO forces opened fire. During the 1/2 century during which NATO deterred the Soviet Empire, there never was occasion to fire a shot in anger. What that means is that deterrence worked. Put another way, deterrence deterred. The fact that the NATO threat was not entirely credible in 1994 in Bosnia, and therefore required NATO to open fire in order to prove that it would do so, was a sort of failure. If future historians look at things the way I do, they will ask why that was so.

Chat Moderator: Would you care to comment on NATO's future over the next several decades?

David Fromkin: I don't know what is going to happen, nor can I really offer much of an educated guess because there are so many decisions that will have to be made. And that will affect the answer to that question. We don't yet know whether NATO will stop at the frontiers it presently guarantees, or whether it will expand further to include the Baltic States and other countries. I myself am doubtful about the expansion of NATO, not merely its geographical expansion, but the multiplication of its missions and goals. And I therefore worry somewhat about its future.

Question from MARS_LANDER_FLYER: Why is not NATO doing anything with Russia now? Isn't Russia doing the same thing in Chechnya, what Yugoslavia was accused of doing in Kosovo?

David Fromkin: One of the classic works of international relations is the History of Thucydides, in whose famous passages known as the "Melian Dialog." We are told that the strong do what they will, while the weak do what they must. The United States is strong enough to tell Yugoslavia what to do, but is not strong enough to tell Russia what to do.

Question from JimBO: Does NATO become the "European Police Force" in which it feels it has to head off any civil wars? Much as the UN seems to do now in other parts of the world.

David Fromkin: I hope not. We don't yet know the answer to that question. But many of my friends close to the Administration have told me throughout that Kosovo would be the exception rather than the rule. And that NATO would be unlikely to intervene in any European country again in the foreseeable future. I hope that is true.

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David Fromkin: It is a great responsibility for the US to be as powerful as it is. And it requires us to be as prudent and cautious as we can be, and to remember that when we use military force, people get hurt. And while we may think that what we are doing and the deaths that we are causing are in the service of a higher good, how can we really be sure that we know what the higher good really is.

Chat Moderator: Thank you for chatting with us today.

David Fromkin: Thank you!