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February 11, 2000
Web posted at: 1:44 p.m. EDT

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(CNN) -- Laza Kekic, Regional Director for Central and Eastern Europe at the Economist Intelligence Unit, joined CNN.com on January 28, 2000, to discuss current events in the Balkan region.

The discussion was part of a series that examined the political climate in Kosovo since the bombings in Yugoslavia by NATO forces and assessed future prospects for peace. The following is an edited transcript of Mr. Kekic's responses to questions from CNN.com's online audience. Mr. Kekic participated by telephone from London and CNN.com provided a typist for him.

Chat Moderator: Thank you for joining us today, Laza Kekic, and welcome to our discussion.

Question from cyroe: How much do you think the UN is spending on this peacekeeping operation?

Laza Kekic: Well, if you include all funding and not just UN personnel, estimated requirements differ from the sources of the estimates. We don't, as far as I know, have a firm figure on how much the UN has spent so far. What we do know is that the UN and many other observers claim that the receipt of funding from donors and the UN (dependant, of course, on outside contributors) is insufficient to meet the requirements of their operation in Kosovo.

For example, the head administrator of the UN Mission in Kosovo, Bernard Kouchner, has repeatedly pleaded for more funding. In rather colorful language, at one point, he said that what he needed was equivalent to the cost of half a day of NATO bombing last spring. We have the example of the U.S. Secretary of State, Mrs. Albright, strongly criticizing some of the donor countries for not making good on their pledges to fund the international, that is the UN, operation in Kosovo.

The last thing one can also say, from amongst the various figures that I've reported, is that it is important to distinguish between all the funds that are required for the UN's current operations there and the wider issue of funding for development and reconstruction of Kosovo.

Question from Andrew: Last night, President Clinton mentioned Kosovo only in terms of praise for the U.S. and Allied military forces. He did not say anything substantial about the U.S. and UN's plan for long-term stability in the region. Why do you think that silence was maintained?

Laza Kekic: That's a very interesting observation. There has been a lot of criticism lately of the slowness and the inadequate nature of the efforts of the international community to make good on some of the promises made to the counties of the region only six months ago. One interpretation could be that, having born the brunt of the military effort in Kosovo last year, the United States always made it plain that it expected others, that is the European Union, to bear the burden or responsibility of financing reconstruction in the region. So, one can say that the ball from that point of view is very much in the EU's court.

Although so far the actual sums of funding dispersed to the region have fallen far short of what was pledged and promised last year, there is still some possibility and hope that this will soon change. The EU commission, for example, recently indicated that it would disperse some five-and-a-half billion Euros in assistance to the five countries of the western Balkans over the next six years. That would be a considerable sum and whether they will actually do so we may well see over the next few months when a number of very important financial donor meetings are scheduled. From the point of view of financing, we'll see whether the talk will be transformed into action.

Question from Rory: Given the long history of hostility in this region, can any outside country really bring peace to this region?

Laza Kekic: That is the million dollar question. It is probably impossible to definitively answer that very pertinent question. Perhaps the best that can be hoped for is a sort of holding operation, where outside actors assure security and peace for at least a short time period. This can allow passions to cool and normalization to take place in these societies and provide some time for the indigenous countries or peoples in the region to reach solutions amongst themselves that are sustainable in the long term. If the question implies a fair degree of skepticism about the possibility of outsiders imposing lasting and sustainable solutions, then I would agree.

Question from baloo: How long will Milosevic stay in power, do you think?

Laza Kekic: Well, one of Milosevic's advisors recently very aptly said that he is immovable in the short term but unviable in the long term. What I think that means in practice is that there is very little sign that he will or can be removed from power over the next year or even two. His official term as President of Yugoslavia runs out in 2001.

It is very difficult to see any constitutional way of removing him before that and even after that, it is a moot point. The reasons are that this unity exists and there is the ineffectiveness of the opposition. There is also increasing resentment in the population to Western sanctions, which has played into Milosevic's hands. Also, Milosevic has total control of the state's media security apparatus. Finally, perhaps the most significant factor is the lack of any clear way out for him at the moment. As an indicted war criminal by the Hague Tribunal, he would not only risk his political future but his personal security if he were to step down.

Question from Andi: Do you think there will be a war between Montenegro and Serbia over the former's planned breakoff?

Laza Kekic: With so many wars having taken place in the former Yugoslavia, it would clearly be foolish to answer with a categorical "no" to that question. There are a number of factors in the situation, however, which make it different from other crisis points during the past decade in the region. These differences make war unlikely. The differences are, first, that the Montenegrins and Serbs are ethnically very closely related. Second, Serbia, after so many wars, especially after last years NATO's intervention, is in no shape to launch another war at this juncture. Third, the Montenegrin population is, as opinion polls show, deeply divided over the issue of possible independence and the Montenegrin leadership is sensitive to this and fears the possibility of civil war in the republic irrespective of what Serbia might do.

Finally, with the war in Kosovo only having taken place last year and the international community fearful of another Balkan conflict, most signs show that the main Western countries are urging caution and urging the Montenegrin leadership to solve its problems within the Yugoslav Federation. They are urging that Montenegrins not go for secession and to possibly even direct change in a positive democratic direction in Yugoslavia as a whole -- not only in little Montenegro.

Question from Anwar: Sir, regarding the war criminals Karadzic and Mladic (the worst of all war criminals), what has the ICJ [International Court of Justice] done besides charging them with genocide? They are still roaming free.

Laza Kekic: Yes, they and many others are still at large. Clearly, to call for their capture is easier said than done. A large number of alleged war criminals in Bosnia, mostly Serbs, but also some Croats, have been apprehended over the past few years. That seems to confirm that it is not a question of a lack of will by the international community.

Question from johndonne: Is there any plan to help Serbs who stayed in Kosovo from being slaughtered or forced out eventually?

Laza Kekic: This has been one of the main sources of embarrassment, that is, the expulsion of a large number of Serbs and also Roma and other minorities from the province since K4 took over the running of the province last July. The inability of K4 and the UN to stop this has been just one sign of a rather inefficient operation over the last six months. At the moment, estimates about the numbers of Serbs and other minorities left in Kosovo differ. They range between 30,000 and 100,000 and most of these are either in the very northern part of the province or in scattered enclaves which are now heavily protected by K4 troops, and in other parts of the province.

The first priority for the UN and K4 is to prevent further expulsions. But the much more difficult long-term task, to which everyone seems to be committed, is to get those who have left to return. This will help to create an environment in the province in which all the ethnic groups can feel safe and secure because, at the moment, it is not just minority people who are being victimized and expelled. There is an overall lack of law and order and adequate security. Many ethnic Albanians in Kosovo are also being victimized and are suffering at the hands of various criminal groups and gangs that seem to be operating completely unhindered.

THE PRESENT • Kosovo Journal • Situation Report • Reporter's Notebook • Missed Opportunities • Map: KFOR Troop Deployments • News report archive

In the defense of the UN, we can turn back to the first question and point out that some of the promised funding and resources which would have allowed a fully manned international police force to operate in the province have so far not been forthcoming.

Chat Moderator: What lessons do you think the West has learned from the Kosovo mission?

Laza Kekic: I'm sure these lessons are still being assessed. They are broad military and political lessons. One lesson, for example, that the conflict being waged by Russia in Chechnya has brought home, is that the West is not able to intervene and determine the course of every interethnic conflict in Europe, let alone in the world. Some of the criticisms that have emerged out of the NATO operation in Kosovo over the last few months and revisionist assessments will probably make Western countries more cautious rather than more prepared to mount similar actions elsewhere in the world in the future.

In purely military terms, one main question that will continue to be debated is: Just how effective is air power alone in conflicts of this kind? The answer to that question depends on one's assessment of the reasons why Milosevic gave in to NATO at the beginning of June of last year after having withstood the bombing for 11 weeks. That remains unclear. Hence, the debate on the role of air power will probably continue.

Question from Rory: Would economic development help ease tensions in this region if the development were spread out through the region?

Laza Kekic: That, of course, is the underlying assumption of the so-called stability pact for southeastern Europe that was launched last July in Sarajevo. The idea is that lasting security and peace in the region will not be secured until both internal democratic development and some degree of economic prosperity is assured. Now, it is quite likely that if these countries had levels of development of, say, the Scandinavian countries, the chances of a new armed conflict would be pretty low. But, short of such high levels of development, which cannot be obtained for many, many years and decades, it is not altogether clear that economic betterment or improvement from current low levels would be sufficient in itself to assure peace and stability.

Chat Moderator: Do you have any final thoughts to share with us?

Laza Kekic: One thing one can say is that there's certainly been a lot of pessimism about the region, perhaps not unjustified given what has occurred there in the last decade. It is also true, as we have been discussing, that most of the countries in the region are now faced with innumerable problems. But, at the same time, we might well bear in mind that the people in the region are not mere hapless victims. They have various resources of their own. Some of the countries, in the past, have had rapid economic development. So, given the right circumstances, especially guaranteed security and rule of law, it might reasonable to expect that they will be able to develop economically with some outside assistance but, largely, based on their own efforts.

Chat Moderator: Thank you for joining our discussion!

Laza Kekic: Thank you!