March 28, 2000
Web posted at: 5:00 p.m. EDT

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Russian Elections Eurasia Group Ian Bremner

(CNN) – Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group joined the CNN.com chat room to discuss the upcoming elections in Russia. Bremmer participated in the chat on March 26, 2000, from New York. The following is an edited transcript of the chat.

Chat Moderator: Thank you for joining us today Ian Bremmer and welcome.

Ian Bremmer: Glad to join you.

Chat Moderator: While Vladimir Putin received the absolute majority he needed to win the Russian presidency, his victory was not the overwhelming mandate many had expected. What do the election results say to you?

Ian Bremmer: The turnout was fairly low, barely a majority itself. Many of the so-called "next generation" in Russia, the 20s- 30s, didn't turn out. Many of those with a reformist inclination were disappointed that the elections were basically cooked from the beginning, and stayed at home. That's why the communists appeared to do so well, and Mr. Yavlinsky fared so poorly.

Chat Moderator: Critics of Putin, both inside and outside of Russia, fear he might lead the nation back to a Soviet-style, authoritarian rule? How realistic are those concerns?

Ian Bremmer: Soviet-style is impossible. The decentralization of Russian power that occurred under President Yeltsin--the federalism of the system and the relative autonomy of Russia's regions--can't be reversed. But there will clearly be more consolidation of power under Mr. Putin. And many fear his close ties to the military will lead to a "Putinochet" scenario (at least, that's what I like to call it), where we don't have basic respect for civil society. Still, I think it's very early to tell. There are real reformers close to Putin, particularly on the economic side, and many checks, however early in their development, on authoritarianism.

Chat Moderator: You mentioned Mr. Yavlinsky, has Russia given up on the concept of reformist politicians?

Ian Bremmer: Not at all. But many have given up on Mr. Yavlinsky. In a sense, his party Yabloko has become the party of disgruntled intellectuals. And it should come as no surprise that the disgruntled-intellectual constituency is reasonably small. Yavlinsky's problem has been his unwillingness, stalwart unwillingness, to form an alliance with any of the young reformers like Kiriyenko, Nemtsov, and Kakamada. Those three did surprisingly well in December's parliamentary elections, much better than expected, precisely because there are growing numbers of Russians that support real reform.

Chat Moderator: What sort of political challenges does Putin face in the near future?

Ian Bremmer: He faces a primary challenge from the "oligarchs." Those who had "privatized" the state for their own ends in the past decade, and now look to maintain their grip on power...and Russia's wealth. It won't be easy for Putin to clear the entrenched interests of Russia out. Putin also faces a challenge of his own mandate. He rode into power with virtually no experience, and a huge groundswell of popular support. (not to mention $30/barrel oil) It will be very difficult for Putin not to disappoint.

Question from Sunny1: How will Putin deal with the Russian Mafia?

Ian Bremmer: That's the 64 million-ruble question. I think he will make an example of key political opponents--like those surrounding Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov (I'm thinking about media-mogul Gussinsky and Sistema Chair Yevtushenkov). In such a way, Putin will be able to claim he's making inroads against corruption. The next step would be to move on legislation protecting shareholder rights, simplifying taxation, and enforcing strict penalties against insider trading. That's clearly more difficult. Putin has the ability to aggressively legislate against corruption if he so wishes--the military and the special forces are clearly on his side. But there should be no question--he'll have a real fight on his hands.

Chat Moderator: What do you think Russia's neighbors, its former Soviet republics, think about Putin's victory?

Ian Bremmer: They are cautiously--very cautiously--hopeful. Keep in mind that Russia hasn't really had a president for the last three years. Localized interests became more important. Most of the NIS leaders are hoping that, under Putin, Moscow will follow a policy of economic integration, rather than heavy-handed political and military unification.

I was just in Tbilisi last week, and had the opportunity to discuss this issue with President Shevardnadze. He was more pro-Russia (or, should I say, less anti-Russia) then I had ever seen him in the past five years. He's holding his breath, hoping that Russia's new President will bring effective leadership to Eurasia. Like here in the States, there's a lot of guesswork in that.

Chat Moderator: Should the United States be nervous or relieved that Vladimir Putin is running Russia?

Ian Bremmer: We should be first and foremost relieved. Historically, Russia has rarely followed best case scenarios. If you look at where Russia was--and where Yeltsin was--six months ago, very few would suspect we would now have a functioning president with a clear electoral mandate, a centrist-ish parliament, and a near-end to the war in Chechnya (brutal as it was). That we have a functioning President at all is a relief. I hope we won't be nervous. The world's sole remaining superpower would be remiss internationally if that were the way we behaved. But we should wait and see. There's a lot that can go right with Mr. Putin, but he has to institute the laws. Let's see where we stand with free press in six months. Let's see where we stand with land reform. Personally, I'm hopeful. But that's a long way from confident.

Chat Moderator: Did Putin's intelligence background adequately prepare him for the position of Russian president?

Ian Bremmer: I can't imagine any background that could prepare you for running Russia at this point. I suppose it's good that he has experience not only with the KGB, but also under St. Petersburg ex-Mayor Sobchak. It means Putin understands the mentality of the Old Guard. He understands the mentality of the would-be reformers as well. Which mentality he agrees with remains an open question.

Chat Moderator: Putin has talked about restoring Russia to its former glories. Would that be within the framework of the World Community, or on Moscow's own terms?

Ian Bremmer: I think it will start on Moscow's own terms, and when Putin finds out that's not workable, it will be within the context of the international community. I take Mr. Babitsky, the Radio Liberty columnist (I almost typed in "communist", terrible slip there), as an example. Putin's initial response was terribly heavy-handed, but he backed off quickly when he recognized the international community was seriously upset. Putin is still very inexperienced in foreign policy, and will likely make no few early mistakes. So far, he's tried to learn from them.

One additional point. I think the issue of the Kurile Islands (disputed between Russia and Japan) will be an important bellwether. Russia doesn't need them, and giving them back to Japan would lead not only to improved relations with the Japanese but also serious investment into Russia from Tokyo. That would be an extremely positive sign of Putin's desire to integrate into the world community.

Chat Moderator: Which of Russia's major crises is the one Putin needs to address right away?

Ian Bremmer: Chechnya, of course. He can't sit on "victory." I think he will open negotiations with the acting Chechen government very quickly. They have to rebuild the capital and develop some kind of working relationship with the Chechens. Otherwise, the North Caucasus will continue to dominate headlines in Moscow.

Chat Moderator: What can Putin do to restore the economy?

Ian Bremmer: He has to make the regions more accountable to the center. He also has to clarify economic legislation, from taxation to simple registration of companies. There are two ways he can do this--he can enforce everything from Moscow by diktat (appointing governors rather than electing them, for example), or build a coalition to accomplish the same goals. The latter is the more difficult task, but much more durable.

Question from Sunny1: We've been told in previous chats here that outside of Moscow, the people are really suffering. What can Putin do to fix that?

Ian Bremmer: There are the obvious fixes, like raising pensions, which are abysmally low, and providing agricultural subsidies for the regions that really need them. We should see some of this, simply because oil prices are sky-high (as I mentioned earlier) and Russia's budgets are more comfortable. But for the long run, they have to facilitate small and medium enterprise development across the board, institute management training, and provide relevant education in the regions. Some regions have been extremely good at this--Governor Titov's Samara for example--but most have been disastrous. This should be a high priority on Putin's economic agenda.

Question from Sunny1: How will Putin go about dispelling the image of Russian leadership that Yeltsin gave the world?

Ian Bremmer: I suppose it depends on what you think of President Yeltsin. The excesses of Yeltsin's image--his boisterousness, randomness, and drunkenness--there's no question Putin has shattered that image. He's an incredibly serious, and not very emotive, fellow. But there's a bright side of Yeltsin too, and I would hate for Putin to forget it. The Yeltsin that stood on a tank in August 1991 and led the Russian people to a new system filled with hope. That's an image Putin would do well to remember.

Question from Haley: What role does Eurasia play in Russia's accepting their new President? Or does it at all?

Ian Bremmer: Eurasia Group doesn't recommend one leader over another. We work to spur economic development in--and understanding of--the states of Eurasia. To the extent that helps accept existing leaders, I'm all in favor.

Chat Moderator: Do you have any final thoughts to share with us?

Ian Bremmer: We're still in "silly season" here in the States, with our elections in November. I doubt we're going to see much of an overture to Russia until then. That's an unfortunate coincidence, because the first few months's of Putin's presidency will be a valuable opportunity.

Chat Moderator: Thank you for joining us today!

Ian Bremmer: A pleasure.