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Time to act, China tells N Korea

By Willy Wo-Lap Lam, CNN Senior China Analyst

North Korea's emphasis on military preparedness if wearing thing with Beijing.
North Korea's emphasis on military preparedness if wearing thing with Beijing.

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EYE ON CHINA
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(CNN) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao has told North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to halt his country's "constant war-preparation" and to concentrate on building up its feeble economy.

The Chinese leader also made it clear that Pyongyang must dismantle its nuclear weapons program, which, he said, would severely hamper Beijing's ability -- and willingness -- to aid its neighbor.

Communist party sources in Beijing said Hu had offered three suggestions to the North Korean dictator in the run-up to the six-nation talks on the Korean crisis set to begin in Beijing Wednesday.

Hu's plan called for North Korea to

• Work towards attaining economic self-sufficiency;

• Try out a Chinese-style open-door policy;

• And to improve relations with neighboring countries by halting its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program.

The Chinese president also indicated that much as he and the older generation of cadres valued the traditionally close ties with Pyongyang, Beijing had no choice but to work with the international community to ensure the de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

The message from Hu, also Head of the party's Leading Group on Foreign Affairs (LGFA), has been relayed to Pyongyang over the past couple of months by emissaries including Army Chief Political Commissar Xu Caihou and Vice Foreign Ministers Dai Bingguo and Wang Yi.

The sources said Hu's near-ultimatum was a major factor behind Kim's recent decision to take part in the six-nation talks.

And if Pyongyang is willing to climb down on the WMD issue, the Chinese leadership has promised to persuade the U.S. to make a clear-cut commitment on not invading North Korea.

Hu reportedly told Kim that a multi-national format would work to Pyongyang's advantage because Washington's pledge of non-aggression would be guaranteed by countries including China and Russia.

Beijing also promised to send more economic and agricultural advisers to help revive the moribund North Korean economy.

Senior Chinese officials have told their North Korean counterparts that internal disorder stemming from an economic meltdown would pose at least as big a threat to Pyongyang as an American invasion.

Diplomatic analysts familiar with Chinese-North Korean interchanges pointed out, however, that it was uncertain whether Kim and his representatives would be cooperative at the forthcoming talks.

The analysts said while Kim had acceded to some of Beijing's demands, he was very unhappy that the Hu leadership had refused to make a pledge about helping to defend North Korea should it be attacked by the U.S.

Mutual defense

Once close allies, China is pressing North Korea to live up to new international realities.
Once close allies, China is pressing North Korea to live up to new international realities.

This despite the fact that the mutual defense treaty between the two neighbors -- the China-Korean Treaty of Friendship and Mutual Cooperation of 1961 -- is still valid.

It is understood that Chinese officials have decided to adopt a strategy of calculated ambiguity about whether to come to North Korea's defense.

"Beijing is very worried about, to use a Chinese saying, being dragged into the water by the Kim regime," said a Western diplomat.

"Moreover, the Hu leadership does not want Kim's irrational policies to jeopardize Beijing's recently much-improved relations with the U.S," the diplomat added.

Shen Jiru, an international affairs expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes China should remove all military elements from the 1961 treaty.

"It is unrealistic to hold on to a Cold War-era treaty under new international conditions," he said.

On top of that a number of Hu's advisers have argued that the on-going imbroglio would provide an opportunity for Beijing to show the West it can play a constructive role in global affairs.

Should the crisis be resolved, the amount of good will that can be garnered could help lessen U.S. pressure on China over a broad range of factors -- from its allegedly unfair trading practices to worries over a fast-modernizing People's Liberation Army (PLA).

And how about the Kim regime's response to Hu's suggestion that Pyongyang shift from incessant war-preparation to economic construction and a Chinese-style open-door policy?

Chinese economists familiar with North Korea said that the Kim leadership was receptive to China's suggestion that Pyongyang fixed its agriculture policy to achieve food self-sufficiency.

Several teams of Chinese agronomists have scheduled visits to North Korea later this year.

However, Kim has resisted Beijing's suggestion that Pyongyang emulate the Chinese example of luring foreign capital through means including developing special economic zones.

Kim reportedly told Hu's emissaries that Pyongyang couldn't follow late leader Deng Xiaoping's open-door policy because of worries about "infiltration by the U.S."

While it is likely that the six-nation talks will drag on for some time, analysts are cautiously optimistic that the chances for a settlement are higher than before.

Apart from the increasing pressure from Beijing, there are signs Kim has realized that his diplomacy of nuclear blackmail may backfire.

Despite Kim's daredevil rhetoric, diplomatic sources in Beijing and Pyongyang said the former playboy was scared by the ruthless efficiency with which U.S. forces had forced the Saddam Hussein regime from power.

The Stalinist dictator's requests for Chinese assistance -- mainly anti-missile facilities against possible U.S. air strikes -- became more vociferous following the fall of Baghdad.

And while Beijing has refused to make available more military aid to Pyongyang, PLA experts have given Kim advisers a detailed briefing on China's assessment of American weapons deployed in the Iraqi theatre.

"Kim was shocked especially by the killing of the two Saddam boys," said a Chinese diplomatic source.

"Upon hearing the news, Kim ordered that more underground [protection] bunkers be built against a possible U.S. attack."


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