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The Morning Grind / DayAhead |
'We're number three!'
By John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit
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John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and Wesley Clark are fighting for third place in the New Hampshire primary.
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Stay with CNN-USA for continuing coverage on the eve of the New Hampshire presidential primary. Our anchors, correspondents and analysts are bringing you frequent live reports on the candidates -- and the cold.
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VIDEO
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CNN's Jeff Greenfield on New Hampshire and the nomination.
CNN's Candy Crowley on the reshaping of Howard Dean's image.
John Edwards is courting undecided voters in New Hampshire.
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| UPCOMING PRIMARIES |
• Tuesday, January 27: New Hampshire primary • Tuesday, February 3: Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina primaries; New Mexico Democratic caucus; Virginia Republican caucus When is your primary? For more key dates in the 2004 election season, see our special America Votes 2004 Election Calendar |
SPECIAL REPORT
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MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) -- Election nights should be a blast, like Christmas morning. Full of suspense, intrigue and, if we're lucky, an occasional throaty growl.
But since every major poll since Thursday has shown John Kerry and Howard Dean holding solidly onto first and second place in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary, we'd like to shift your gaze today to a race that's much more fun, and almost as important. It's the race for third place, a could-be cliffhanger that will go a long way toward deciding who carries the anti-Kerry banner as this race goes national next month.
Three candidates -- Joe Lieberman, Wesley Clark and John Edwards -- are locked in a dead heat for the third ticket out of New Hampshire, according to the final tracking poll conducted by CNN/USA TODAY/Gallup. The latest poll, released Sunday at 8 p.m. ET, showed Kerry leading with 36 percent, followed by Dean with 25 percent.
Perhaps the most compelling comeback story would be Joe Lieberman, who was written off as recently as, well, Sunday morning, but could be showing a touch of post-debate gain, or as his aides inevitably say, "Joementum." By late afternoon, however, Joe had dropped two points to fourth place. And, alas, a separate poll released Sunday at 10 p.m. ET showed Lieberman stuck in fifth place, pulling just 5 percent. Well, so much for Joementum.
Nonetheless, if Joe, aided by a strong turnout of independent voters, can leave New Hampshire in one of the top three slots, he would head onto more friendly terrain next week in conservative states like Oklahoma, Arizona, South Carolina, Missouri and Delaware, where he's been pouring loads of resources.
Joe released his final radio ad in New Hampshire last night, featuring independent voters who said they decided to vote for him after watching the final Democratic debate on Thursday. "The debate clearly changed my mind," Liz Rosenfeld, a fifth-grade teacher in Laconia, says in the ad. "I really liked what Joe Lieberman had to say. I think Joe Lieberman is best suited to beat George Bush because he can appeal to independent voters. He's a man of integrity and conscience. And he has what it takes to make a great president."
Joe would need to hustle to maximize any post-New Hampshire bounce. A new South Carolina poll shows him in an astounding sixth place, with just 5 percent. (The poll also shows Kerry catapulting from dead last to second place. Kerry now trails front-runner/local boy Edwards, 21 to 17 percent.)
Those numbers should help Palmetto congressman Jim Clyburn focus his mind on his widely sought endorsement. Sources told the Grind last week that Clyburn had settled on Kerry after his candidate of choice, Dick Gephardt, quit the race last week. In an interview yesterday with CNN's Frank Buckley, the congressman said he thinks either Edwards or Kerry could win down there. Clyburn said he had talked to several Kerry people yesterday, including Kerry himself, campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill and Sen. Fritz Hollings, and one Edwards aide. He was planning to talk to Dean folks late last night.
"As my daughter said to me that night, 'You need to just chill out for awhile.' And so I've decided to just 'chill out' for awhile. But while chilling out, I've been talking to a lot of people and watching their campaigns."
Clyburn said he would review the situation Wednesday morning. "I'll take another look at it and see whether or not I ought to get actively involved or whether or not I ought to just cast a vote," he said.
He said Gephardt has not given him any guidance on who he should support. "He wouldn't do that," he said.
For Edwards, a third-place showing would be viewed as a solid, but slightly status-quo performance -- a gain from pre-Iowa polls, but something slightly short of a clear breakthrough into the top tier.
For his part, Clark bounced back into third place in our final tracking, making him the Democrat who picked up the most support. But he's also the one who has lost the most support since the Iowa caucuses, dropping from 21 percent in a January 17-19 poll, to 13 percent Sunday night.
For a colorful metaphor explaining Clark's slide in the polls, we'll quote CNN's own Dan Lothian, who has covered Clark for several weeks and now, after talking to voters, compares him, respectfully, to a spare tire: "Clark's like a spare tire that Democrats kept in the trunk in case they got a flat [in Iowa]. They didn't get a flat, so they're probably going to leave Clark in the trunk."
