Will Ukraine’s Crimea region be Europe’s next ‘frozen’ conflict?

Joerg Forbrig, Eastern Europe analyst, special to CNN
4 minute read
Updated 12:11 PM EST, Fri February 28, 2014
Ukrainian tanks are transported from their base in Perevalne, Crimea, on Wednesday, March 26. After Russian troops seized most of Ukraine's bases in Crimea, interim Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov ordered the withdrawal of armed forces from the peninsula, citing Russian threats to the lives of military staff and their families.
Crisis in Ukraine —
Ukrainian tanks are transported from their base in Perevalne, Crimea, on Wednesday, March 26. After Russian troops seized most of Ukraine's bases in Crimea, interim Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov ordered the withdrawal of armed forces from the peninsula, citing Russian threats to the lives of military staff and their families.
Pavel Golovkin/aP
Ukrainian marines wave as they leave a base in Feodosia, Crimea, on Tuesday, March 25.
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Ukrainian marines wave as they leave a base in Feodosia, Crimea, on Tuesday, March 25.
Valeriy Kulyk/AP
Russian sailors stand on the deck of the corvette ship Suzdalets in the bay of Sevastopol, Crimea, on March 25.
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Russian sailors stand on the deck of the corvette ship Suzdalets in the bay of Sevastopol, Crimea, on March 25.
VIKTOR DRACHEV/AFP/Getty Images
Pro-Russian militia members remove a local resident as Russian troops assault the Belbek air base, outside Sevastopol, on Saturday, March 22. Following its annexation of Crimea, Russian forces have consolidated their control of the region.
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Pro-Russian militia members remove a local resident as Russian troops assault the Belbek air base, outside Sevastopol, on Saturday, March 22. Following its annexation of Crimea, Russian forces have consolidated their control of the region.
Ivan Sekretarev/AP
Soldiers in unmarked uniforms sit atop an armored personnel carrier at the gate of the Belbek air base on March 22.
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Soldiers in unmarked uniforms sit atop an armored personnel carrier at the gate of the Belbek air base on March 22.
Ivan Sekretarev/AP
A Russian sailor holds the Russian Navy's St. Andrew's flag while standing on the bow of the surrendered Ukrainian submarine Zaporozhye on March 22 in Sevastopol.
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A Russian sailor holds the Russian Navy's St. Andrew's flag while standing on the bow of the surrendered Ukrainian submarine Zaporozhye on March 22 in Sevastopol.
SERGEI ILNITSKY/EPA /LANDOV
Russian President Vladimir Putin signs the final decree completing the annexation of Crimea on Friday, March 21, as Upper House Speaker Valentina Matviyenko, left, and State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin watch.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin signs the final decree completing the annexation of Crimea on Friday, March 21, as Upper House Speaker Valentina Matviyenko, left, and State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin watch.
Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images
A Ukrainian serviceman leaves a Ukrainian military unit that Russian soldiers took control of in Perevalne on March 21.
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A Ukrainian serviceman leaves a Ukrainian military unit that Russian soldiers took control of in Perevalne on March 21.
YURI KOCHETKOV/EPA/LANDOV
Ukrainian border guards run during training at a military camp in Alekseyevka, Ukraine, on March 21.
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Ukrainian border guards run during training at a military camp in Alekseyevka, Ukraine, on March 21.
Sergei Grits/AP
Russian soldiers patrol the area surrounding a Ukrainian military unit in Perevalne on Thursday, March 20.
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Russian soldiers patrol the area surrounding a Ukrainian military unit in Perevalne on Thursday, March 20.
FILIPPO MONTEFORTE/AFP/Getty Images
Pro-Russian protesters remove the gate to the Ukrainian navy headquarters as Russian troops stand guard in Sevastopol on Wednesday, March 19.
Crisis in Ukraine —
Pro-Russian protesters remove the gate to the Ukrainian navy headquarters as Russian troops stand guard in Sevastopol on Wednesday, March 19.
Vasiliy BATANOV/AFP/Getty Images
Pro-Russian forces walk inside the Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol on March 19.
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Pro-Russian forces walk inside the Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol on March 19.
Andrew Lubimov/AP
A member of pro-Russian forces takes down a Ukrainian flag at the Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol on March 19.
Crisis in Ukraine —
A member of pro-Russian forces takes down a Ukrainian flag at the Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol on March 19.
Andrew Lubimov/AP
Alexander Vitko, chief of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, leaves the Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol after pro-Russian forces took it over on March 19.
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Alexander Vitko, chief of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, leaves the Ukrainian navy headquarters in Sevastopol after pro-Russian forces took it over on March 19.
Andrew Lubimov/AP
A Russian flag waves as workers install a new sign on a parliament building in Simferopol, Crimea's capital, on March 19.
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A Russian flag waves as workers install a new sign on a parliament building in Simferopol, Crimea's capital, on March 19.
Vadim Ghidra/AP
Russian military personnel surround a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne on March 19.
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Russian military personnel surround a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne on March 19.
Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
Nameplates on the front of the Crimean parliament building get removed Tuesday, March 18, in Simferopol.
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Nameplates on the front of the Crimean parliament building get removed Tuesday, March 18, in Simferopol.
Bulent Doruk/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
From left, Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov; Vladimir Konstantinov, speaker of the Crimean parliament; Russian President Vladimir Putin; and Alexei Chaly, the new de facto mayor of Sevastopol, join hands in Moscow on March 18 after signing a treaty to make Crimea part of Russia.
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From left, Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov; Vladimir Konstantinov, speaker of the Crimean parliament; Russian President Vladimir Putin; and Alexei Chaly, the new de facto mayor of Sevastopol, join hands in Moscow on March 18 after signing a treaty to make Crimea part of Russia.
YEKATERINA SHTUKINA/AFP/Getty Images
Demonstrators hold a Crimean flag at Lenin Square in Simferopol on March 18.
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Demonstrators hold a Crimean flag at Lenin Square in Simferopol on March 18.
FILIPPO MONTEFORTE/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian soldiers stand guard at a checkpoint near Strilkove, Ukraine, close to Crimea on Monday, March 17.
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Ukrainian soldiers stand guard at a checkpoint near Strilkove, Ukraine, close to Crimea on Monday, March 17.
IVAN BOBERSKYY/EPA/LANDOV
Former boxer and Ukrainian politician Vitali Klitschko addresses reporters in Kiev, Ukraine, on March 17.
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Former boxer and Ukrainian politician Vitali Klitschko addresses reporters in Kiev, Ukraine, on March 17.
Artyom Geodakyan/ITAR-TASS/Landov
Ukrainian troops stand guard in front of the Ukrainian Parliament building in Kiev on March 17.
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Ukrainian troops stand guard in front of the Ukrainian Parliament building in Kiev on March 17.
SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP/Getty Images
A Ukrainian man applies for the National Guard at a mobile recruitment center in Kiev on March 17.
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A Ukrainian man applies for the National Guard at a mobile recruitment center in Kiev on March 17.
ROBERT GHEMENT/EPA/LANDOV
Civilians walk past riot police in Simferopol on March 17.
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Civilians walk past riot police in Simferopol on March 17.
Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
A Ukrainian soldier stands on top of an armored vehicle at a military camp near the village of Michurino, Ukraine, on March 17.
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A Ukrainian soldier stands on top of an armored vehicle at a military camp near the village of Michurino, Ukraine, on March 17.
Sergei Grits/AP
Policemen stand guard outside the regional state administration building in Donetsk, Ukraine, during a rally by pro-Russia activists March 17.
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Policemen stand guard outside the regional state administration building in Donetsk, Ukraine, during a rally by pro-Russia activists March 17.
KHUDOTEPLY/AFP/Getty Images
Armed soldiers stand guard outside a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne on March 17.
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Armed soldiers stand guard outside a Ukrainian military base in Perevalne on March 17.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
A man holds a Crimean flag as he stands in front of the Crimean parliament building in Simferopol on March 17.
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A man holds a Crimean flag as he stands in front of the Crimean parliament building in Simferopol on March 17.
DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP/Getty Images
Crimeans holding Russian flags celebrate in front of the parliament building in Simferopol on Sunday, March 16.
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Crimeans holding Russian flags celebrate in front of the parliament building in Simferopol on Sunday, March 16.
XINHUA /LANDOV
A Ukrainian police officer tries to shield himself from a road block thrown by pro-Russia supporters in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 16.
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A Ukrainian police officer tries to shield himself from a road block thrown by pro-Russia supporters in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 16.
Sergei Chuzavkov/AP
Pro-Russia demonstrators storm the prosecutor general's office during a rally in Donetsk on March 16.
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Pro-Russia demonstrators storm the prosecutor general's office during a rally in Donetsk on March 16.
Andrey Basevich/AP
A child casts her mother's ballot March 16 while holding a Russian flag at a polling station in Simferopol.
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A child casts her mother's ballot March 16 while holding a Russian flag at a polling station in Simferopol.
VIKTOR DRACHEV/AFP/Getty Images