August has thus far been kind to Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers both nationally and in some critical battleground states. Since we last updated the CNN battleground map, Donald Trump has clearly improved his poll numbers both in some national polls and in some critical battleground states. The Republican nominee has also upped his game (as have his allied outside group friends) with television ad spending. What’s changed? - New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) moves from “battleground” to “lean Democrat” - Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) moves from “battleground” to “lean Democrat” – Arizona (11) moves from from “lean Republican” to “battleground” Road to 270: Electoral College map The state of play If Donald Trump were to win all the remaining battleground states on the map, he’d still be shy of the 270 votes needed to win the White House which means he is going to have to pick off at least one of the states currently leaning in Hillary Clinton’s direction in addition to running the table in those battlegrounds. This update to the map is far from a prediction that the election is over and Clinton has won. The next 80 days are going to be fiercely contested between the candidates and our current state of play shows Clinton holding a significant electoral advantage heading in to that intense fall campaign. The good news for Trump is that the election isn’t being held today and a new national poll out from Pew Research shows some of Clinton’s post-convention glory may be fading a bit. In an effort to steady his campaign after several rough weeks of controversies that knocked him off course, Trump put some new leadership at the top of his team this week and is about to begin his first real concerted television advertising campaign in the battleground states. He also started to shift his tone a bit, expressing general regret for some of the things he has said during this heated campaign. The initial $4 ad million buy will be hitting television screens in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. And Trump’s new campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, has mentioned the goal of beefing up some of the state based operations in the key states. The current CNN battleground map gives Hillary Clinton 273 electoral votes from states that are either solidly or leaning in her direction compared to 191 electoral votes for Donald Trump in states that are solidly or leaning in his direction. That leaves 74 electoral votes up for grabs across 5 battleground states – Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, and Nevada. Solid Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (164 total) Leans Republican: Arizona (11), Georgia (16) (27 total) Battleground states: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), North Carolina (15) (110 total) Leans Democratic: Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20) (36 total) Solid Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5) (201 total)
