- Gov. Basuki Tjahaja Purnama and opponent Anies Baswedan likely to be in April runoff
- The Chinese Christian incumbent faces blasphemy trial over comments on Quran
(CNN)It's an election that could change Indonesia.
Voters in the capital of Jakarta went to the polls Wednesday to elect a new governor.
But more is at stake than who governs the sprawling, chaotic metropolis of 30 million people.
The contest between the incumbent, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, an ethnic Chinese Christian commonly known as Ahok, and his two Muslim opponents has raised questions over whether Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, will remain a moderate Muslim society.
It could even determine who will be the next president of Indonesia after the 2019 national election.
Preliminary exit polls and surveys have Ahok and former Education and Culture Minister Anies Baswedan as the top two candidates, with neither breaking the 50% threshold to prevent a runoff.
A result won't be known for two weeks, and if no one wins a majority, a second round of voting will take place April 19.
"If (incumbent) Ahok (were) to lose, other than politicians using religion as a tool, Islamists will use it to change Islam into Indonesia to their own meaning, that isn't Indonesian," Tobias Basuki, a researcher at the Indonesian think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNN.
"They will gain an upper hand. (This) will be the first litmus test."
Polling data before Wednesday's election showed Ahok and Baswedan were expected to face off in the second round in April.
Rise of conservatism
More than 200 million Muslims -- 87% of the population -- call Indonesia home.
It's generally a moderate country known for a tolerance for other religions and ways of life with the exception of the conservative Aceh province.
"Indonesia's political Islam is very different from the Middle East -- for example, non-Muslim leaders of a Muslim majority is normal; intermarriage is accepted," researcher Basuki said.
However, experts say Indonesia is becoming increasingly conservative, with large anti-LGBT protests in Jakarta and passionate reactions to allegations of blasphemy commonplace in recent years.