WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 16:  U.S. President Donald Trump waits on the arrival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the White House May 16, 2017 in Washington, DC. Trump and Erdogan met in the Oval Office to discuss a range of bilateral issues.  (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Win McNamee/Getty Images
WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 16: U.S. President Donald Trump waits on the arrival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the White House May 16, 2017 in Washington, DC. Trump and Erdogan met in the Oval Office to discuss a range of bilateral issues. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Now playing
04:43
US sanctions Turkey over detention of pastor
President Donald Trump addresses the 73rd session of the United Nations General Assembly, at U.N. headquarters, Tuesday, Sept. 25, 2018. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
Richard Drew/AP
President Donald Trump addresses the 73rd session of the United Nations General Assembly, at U.N. headquarters, Tuesday, Sept. 25, 2018. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
Now playing
02:17
Trump claim to world leaders met with laughter
Trump laughing with me
CNN
Trump laughing with me
Now playing
01:38
Trump: World leaders were laughing with me
CNN Illustration/Getty Images
Now playing
01:59
Trump warns about doing business with Iran
President Donald Trump talks on the phone aboard Air Force One during a flight to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to address a joint gathering of House and Senate Republicans, Thursday, January 26, 2017. This was the Presidentâs first Trip aboard Air Force One. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
Shealah Craighead/White House Photo/Getty Images
President Donald Trump talks on the phone aboard Air Force One during a flight to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to address a joint gathering of House and Senate Republicans, Thursday, January 26, 2017. This was the Presidentâs first Trip aboard Air Force One. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
Now playing
01:36
WH stops summarizing calls with world leaders
CNN
Now playing
01:32
Clarke: Trump diminishes US role and influence
US President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin attend a joint press conference after a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, on July 16, 2018. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP)        (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images
US President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin attend a joint press conference after a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, on July 16, 2018. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP) (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)
Now playing
01:59
Trump: We are all to blame for Russia relations
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - FEBRUARY 08:  Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looks on before speaking to members of the media during a visit to AppDirect on February 8, 2018 in San Francisco, California. Trudeau is visiting several cities in the U.S.  (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images North America/Getty Images
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - FEBRUARY 08: Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looks on before speaking to members of the media during a visit to AppDirect on February 8, 2018 in San Francisco, California. Trudeau is visiting several cities in the U.S. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Now playing
00:57
WaPo: Trump admits he gave Trudeau false info
US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron hold a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, DC, on April 24, 2018. (Photo by LUDOVIC MARIN / AFP)        (Photo credit should read LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP/Getty Images)
LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP/Getty Images
US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron hold a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, DC, on April 24, 2018. (Photo by LUDOVIC MARIN / AFP) (Photo credit should read LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP/Getty Images)
Now playing
00:44
Trump has 'terrible' phone call with Macron
photo illustration: getty images/shutterstock/cnnmoney
Now playing
01:17
WH confirms Trump, Putin discussed meeting
travel ban trump then and now orig nws_00002328.jpg
travel ban trump then and now orig nws_00002328.jpg
Now playing
01:23
Trump's travel ban then and now
ABC News
Now playing
01:01
Trump touts trust with Kim in TV interview
Kevin Lim/THE STRAITS TIMES
Now playing
02:11
Memorable moments from the Singapore summit
TOPSHOT - A vendor picks up a 100 yuan note above a newspaper featuring a photo of US president-elect Donald Trump, at a news stand in Beijing on November 10, 2016.
The world's second-largest economy is US president-elect Donald Trump's designated bogeyman, threatening it on the campaign trail with tariffs for stealing American jobs, but analysts say US protectionism could create opportunities for Beijing. / AFP / GREG BAKER        (Photo credit should read GREG BAKER/AFP/Getty Images)
GREG BAKER/AFP/AFP/Getty Images
TOPSHOT - A vendor picks up a 100 yuan note above a newspaper featuring a photo of US president-elect Donald Trump, at a news stand in Beijing on November 10, 2016. The world's second-largest economy is US president-elect Donald Trump's designated bogeyman, threatening it on the campaign trail with tariffs for stealing American jobs, but analysts say US protectionism could create opportunities for Beijing. / AFP / GREG BAKER (Photo credit should read GREG BAKER/AFP/Getty Images)
Now playing
01:48
US trade with China, explained
CNN
Now playing
01:07
Trump announces withdrawal from Iran deal
US President Donald J. Trump delivers his first address to a joint session of Congress from the floor of the House of Representatives in Washington, DC, USA, 28 February 2017.   / AFP / EPA POOL / JIM LO SCALZO        (Photo credit should read JIM LO SCALZO/AFP/Getty Images)
JIM LO SCALZO/AFP/Getty Images
US President Donald J. Trump delivers his first address to a joint session of Congress from the floor of the House of Representatives in Washington, DC, USA, 28 February 2017. / AFP / EPA POOL / JIM LO SCALZO (Photo credit should read JIM LO SCALZO/AFP/Getty Images)
Now playing
01:46
Trump's foreign policy: One thing to know

Editor’s Note: Fadi Hakura is a Turkey expert and associate fellow at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, an independent policy institute based in London. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his.

Turkey’s national currency, the lira, has tumbled by nearly 40% against the US dollar so far this year.

Relations between the two countries reached a low point on Friday, as US President Donald Trump approved the doubling of tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium in response to Turkey’s refusal to release Andrew Brunson – an American pastor who is under house arrest in Turkey and facing terror charges.

Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has so far resisted pressure to implement monetary and fiscal orthodoxy, choosing instead to lash out at both the financial markets and the US.

He has suggested that there is a global plot that aims to destroy Turkey’s political and economic achievements.

So far, his domestic popularity has been on the rise, as he taps into the anti-US sentiment (and willingness to believe in conspiracy theories) that exists among much of the Turkish population.

Erdogan’s stubborn response to Turkey’s economic meltdown has resembled the populist playbook of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, rather than the market-friendly posturing of Argentinian President Mauricio Macri.

Turkey, unlike Argentina, does not seem poised to turn to the International Monetary Fund in order to stave off financial collapse, nor to mend relations with Washington.

If anything, the Turkish President looks to be doubling down in challenging the US and the global financial markets – two formidable opponents.

04:43 - Source: CNN
US sanctions Turkey over detention of pastor

In all likelihood, Turkey will lose any fight it picks with New York, London, Singapore and other bastions of finance – unless a ceasefire is declared. And the lira’s collapse will translate into a financial and economic meltdown for Turkey.

As that process unfolds, it will likely undermine Erdogan’s domestic appeal, even among his most committed ideological supporters, and unleash political instability in its wake.

But the outcome will be a long, drawn-out and complex affair that could promote military interference in politics and generate ramifications beyond Turkey’s borders.

Turkey would probably no longer view the US as a reliable partner and strategic ally.

Whoever ends up leading the country, a wounded Turkey would most likely seek to shift the center of gravity away from the West and toward Russia, Iran and Eurasia.

It would make Turkey less in tune with US and European objectives in the Middle East, meaning Turkey would seek to assert a more independent security and defense policy.

In extreme circumstances, it could even contemplate withdrawing from NATO and terminate – or radically amend – its customs union with the EU.

No scenario can be overlooked should the worst happen and political and economic turmoil leaves devastation in a country as geopolitically critical as Turkey.

Given the potential calamitous outcome, it would be very sensible for the West to prepare an ambitious package to alleviate the aftereffects of the financial tsunami and to ensure that Turkey does not drift from the Western norms and institutions.

Turkey’s EU accession ambitions need to be urgently revived to encourage liberalizing reforms. Otherwise, the West will pay a heavy price for losing such an important country as an ally.