Editor’s Note: Samantha Vinograd is a CNN national security analyst. She served on President Obama’s National Security Council from 2009-2013 and at the Treasury Department under President George W. Bush. Follow her @sam_vinograd. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion articles on CNN.
Every week, I offer a glimpse of the kind of intelligence assessments that are likely to come across the desk of the President of the United States, modeled on the President’s Daily Briefing, or PDB, which the director of national intelligence prepares for the President almost daily.
Here’s this week’s briefing:
Presidents often prepare for major summits by asking experts to provide assessments of a foreign leader’s intentions, along with the threats that leader may pose. These expert assessments establish an important baseline that policymakers can then use to recommend US government positions, including potential red lines and concessions that may be needed during negotiations. Absent presidential agreement on this baseline, it’s almost impossible to develop realistic goals and, in the case of North Korea, actually address ongoing threats to US national security.
When President Donald Trump met Kim Jong Un in June 2018, they came to a vague agreement that North Korea would work toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. But, as Vice President Mike Pence stated last week, North Korea has failed to take concrete steps toward giving up its nuclear weapons, and it still represents a serious nuclear threat.
Though Trump has said that he and Kim fell in love, this is looking more like a one-sided love affair. Kim is getting more of what he wants – including serious US concessions, such as suspension of US-South Korean military exercises – but we’re getting little in return. And while Trump is willing to meet again, any briefing he gets ahead of this summit would likely lay out some assessments that he needs to hear before he sees Kim again:
The truth hurts
North Korea probably has greater nuclear capabilities today than it did at the Singapore summit. In 2017, the US estimated North Korea had up to 60 nuclear warheads, and since that assessment we have seen no indication that the Kim regime has frozen its production of nuclear material or weapons. In fact, in his New Year’s speech earlier this month, Kim actually said that he wouldn’t freeze his nuclear program – let alone dismantle it – unless the US lifts its sanctions.
In fairness, Trump did not get Kim to specifically agree to a freeze when they met in Singapore, and Kim has continued his nuclearization apace. Still, this reality poses a continued risk.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said publicly that North Korea continues to produce fissile material – material used to make nuclear weapons – and there are even reports that North Korea is upgrading its nuclear infrastructure and making more sophisticated weapons. Going into a second summit, it is likely that North Korea has a bigger and better nuclear stockpile than it did last June.
This raises real questions about whether Kim actually plans to denuclearize. Even if he does, any denuclearization process will be more difficult because North Korea’s nuclear capabilities continue to grow.
With an increased nuclear threat from North Korea, US negotiators – if they are allowed to do any presidential prep – should emphasize that the concessions we require from Kim before we give him what he wants just got larger, in line with the size of his nuclear program.
Kim’s love isn’t blind
While Trump is willing to meet Kim again, even though he’s done almost nothing to deserve it, Kim’s playing a