Most polar bears could struggle to survive in the Arctic by 2100, study finds

(CNN)For many people, there is one animal that comes to mind when they think of creatures threatened by climate change: the polar bear.

In recent years, images of emaciated bears searching desperately for food have made the Arctic's apex predator the poster child for the effects of global warming.
Now, as the planet continues to warm rapidly, a new study brings another dire warning: If humans fail to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, most populations of the iconic species could struggle to survive beyond 2100.
Already, some populations have likely crossed key thresholds that will make their survival difficult, and perhaps impossible, according to the findings of the study published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.
However, there is a glimmer of hope that some bears can be saved.
Though the number of polar bears is likely to be greatly reduced in some regions, moderate cuts to heat-trapping gas emissions in the coming decades could allow them to persist in a few pockets of the Arctic.

As the Arctic's sea ice goes, so go the polar bears

Polar bears are the largest terrestrial carnivores on Earth, but their fate is intimately tied to what happens to the Arctic's sea ice.
They rely on the ice as a platform to catch seals -- their prey of choice -- because they are not skilled enough swimmers to catch them in the open water, says Péter K. Molnár, an assistant professor at the University of Toronto Scarborough and one of the authors of the study.
The life of a polar bear has always been characterized by periods of feast and famine. In winter, when the sea ice is at its greatest extent, the bears try to gorge themselves on seals to build up energy stores to survive the lean summer months, when the ice melts and they are forced onto land.
A polar bear cub is shown in Svalbard, Norway. A new study finds that polar bears in most regions of the Arctic could struggle to survive beyond 2100 if humans do not reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
But as the region's sea ice declines as it has in recent decades, bear populations in some parts of the Arctic are being forced to go longer and longer without food.
"Ultimately, the bears need food and in order to have food, they need ice," said Molnár. "But in order for them to have ice, we need to control climate change."
Figuring out how long bears in different regions can fast before reproduction and adult survival are impaired was the researchers' first challenge.
The study found that the length of time a bear can survive without food varies by region and the condition of the bear, but that cubs are the first to be impacted by a lengthy fast.
Adult females with cubs are generally the second-most vulnerable, followed by adult males and finally, solitary females, some of which can fast for a staggering 255 days before their chances of survival decline steeply, the researchers estimate.