(CNN)After Tropical Storm Eta moves through Cuba Sunday, it is expected to head straight for Florida -- and not just one part of Florida, but almost the entire state may feel the effects of Eta over the next several days.
Tropical Storm Eta is charging toward Florida
Eta is the 28th named storm of the 2020 hurricane season, tying the record for the number of named storms in a single season set back in 2005.
Interestingly, despite how active the hurricane season has been, Eta would be the first named storm to make landfall this year in Florida.
If Eta does hit Florida, it would also be the 12th named storm to make landfall in the continental US this season, the most in one year. Previous storms this year were Bertha, Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Marco, Sally, Beta, Delta, and Zeta.
Where a tropical system goes depends on the atmospheric steering factors. In the case of Eta, there are several. In the short-term, the storm will continue to move northeast as Eta moves "in the flow on the east side of a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico," according to the National Hurricane Center.
After it crosses Cuba, a high-pressure system near Bermuda will partially steer the storm west into the Gulf of Mexico. In doing so, Eta could make landfall in Florida anywhere from Miami down to Key West.
Once Eta gets far enough west of that high-pressure system, it will start to shift northward. This movement is normal for tropical systems in the Northern Hemisphere as storms often head away from the equator and to the north. After that, the forecast models really begin to separate in terms of track agreement. Most of this is due to a cold front moving through the southeastern US.
"Cold fronts dropping down from the north can add another layer of complexity with forecasting November landfalls," said CNN meteorologist Tyler Mauldin.
This specific cold front may end up steering Eta once again back towards Florida, with perhaps another landfall -- this time on the western coast anywhere from Sarasota up to Panama City on the Panhandle.
Regardless of whether it actually makes landfall or not, it will bring very heavy rainfall, rip currents, and storm surge to south Florida over the next 48 hours.
From Naples to Miami down through the Keys, widespread rainfall totals will likely range from 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher amounts.
Severe storms with tornadoes and waterspouts are also possible across South Florida on Sunday.
"A tornado threat may exist Sunday night across southern Florida as Tropical Storm Eta approaches," according to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
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