Over the course of a fortnight, the British Prime Minister hopes he can shepherd some of the most powerful leaders on Earth to accelerate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over this decade.
It’s impossible to overstate how important this summit is for Johnson’s image internationally. He has claimed, ever since the UK voted to leave the European Union, that Brexit was an opportunity for his country to become a more active member of the global community, leading the way in reforming global trade, the international rules-based order and tackling the climate crisis.
For COP26 to be considered a success, Johnson and Alok Sharma, his COP26 President, will need to see delegates commit to limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrialization temperatures, as opposed to the 2C upper limit stated in the 2015 Paris Agreement. He’ll also want dozens more pledges for net zero – where countries emit no more greenhouse gases than they remove from the atmosphere – which realistically requires halving emissions globally by 2030. Of particular importance will be commitments from countries who are growing their economies off the back of fossil fuels, such as Saudi Arabia, and China, which is using coal to power its pandemic comeback.
On top of that, he is hoping rich countries will also honor their commitment to transfer $100 billion annually to the Global South to help countries there deal with the crisis they had little hand in creating. Putting an end date on burning coal, boosting plans on electric vehicles and finalizing the Paris Agreement rulebook – which is still not finished six years after the landmark deal was struck – would also mean success.
Given the severity of the climate crisis, one might assume that agreement on these issues would be simple. Unfortunately, politics and science have a complicated relationship with one another and, in 2021, multilateralism relies as much on political self-interest as it does on indisputable facts.
“When it comes to climate policy, politics and physics are having an argument that physics will win,” says Tom Burke, chair of E3G, an independent climate think tank.
“Politics will always favor short-term arguments about short-term cost of living and energy security, whereas physics will obey its laws, paying no attention to cost or time. Until the politics conversation is more realistic about what needs to be done to transform our economies – which will actually provide more economic opportunity – this losing argument will continue.”
Burke believes that the only way a successful climate policy can be achieved is by countries pooling their sovereignty – as happened with the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe after World War II, for instance – so that every country is as invested as the next.
However, he says that as the memory of that war fades, “people are forgetting that the global Western order was formed to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.”
“There are few willing to make a case to their electorate” for pooling sovereignty, Burke said, in the face of domestic political issues that matter to voters more than issues in the wider world. A good example of this is the current energy shortages hiking consumer prices.
Beyond concerns about individuals heating their homes, some analysts also believe that powerful nations have become more insular over the past decade or so.
“After the Cold War, the argument for internationalism was easy to make, as people could see the benefits of cheaper goods and greater work opportunities,” Alexander Stubb, former prime minister and foreign minister of Finland, told CNN. “After the financial crash, many believed that it was the same globalism that had cost them their jobs, homes and prosperity.”
This fear and anger at the wider world breeds the sort of grievance politics that can lead to isolationism.
While Brexit was about more than Britain raising the drawbridge, it is undeniable that a large chunk of the vote came from people who felt left behind and failed by a modern, open world in which they saw no place for themselves.
Donald Trump’s victory in America the same year was again more complicated than any single issue, but his isolationist America First politics fed a resentment towards globalization and US troops dying in foreign lands. So successful was Trump in feeding this beast, his successor adopted many Trumpian foreign policy stances in places like Afghanistan and China.
In this age of self-interest, is there hope that multilateralism could return to save the planet? Stubb says that appealing to the self-interest of the populous is a good starting point.
“You need to make people feel they are living better lives, be it they are richer or more comfortable because of globalization,” he says. “That can be because of greater choice in things they buy or because of jobs and subsequent wealth brought to their areas through regeneration projects.”