Ukraine has denied Russia a victory for four weeks. A grim new phase could be coming

On Monday, after intense fighting, Ukrainian forces regained control of Makariv, a town west of Kyiv that had been battered by Russian airstrikes.

It’s tempting to view this small victory for Ukrainian forces as a shift of momentum in the battle for Kyiv: In better times, this suburb would be only an hour’s drive to Khreshchatyk, the capital’s central boulevard.

Kyiv once appeared to be the primary objective of what the Kremlin must have envisioned as a swift regime-change operation. The capital has been rocked by explosions in recent days, but it is far from encircled.

On the Azov Sea, the besieged southeastern city of Mariupol – despite being surrounded and mercilessly pummeled, block by block, by Russian firepower – still eludes Russian control. Its defenders rejected an ultimatum to surrender by Monday morning, thwarting a Russian effort to finalize a land bridge linking Crimea with the separatist republics of the eastern Donbas region.

A destroyed armored personnel carrier is seen in Makariv on March 4.

Nearly a month after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military has perceptibly shifted its messaging. The Russian military’s advances have been stymied, the Ukrainians say, forcing a shift in Russian tactics.

“Due to the lack of success of the ground phase of the operation, the enemy continues to actively launch missile and bomb strikes on important military and civilian infrastructure using operational and tactical aircraft, high-precision missile weapons and indiscriminate munitions,” the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a statement Tuesday.

There’s plenty of evidence to suggest that the Russians are taking more of a standoff approach, launching salvos of missiles from outside of Ukrainian airspace.

This satellite image shows a damaged theater in Mariupol, Ukraine, which was bombed March 16, 2022.

They thought they would be safe in the theater. Then it was bombed

In a statement released Sunday, Russia’s defense ministry said warships in the Caspian sea launched Kalibr cruise missiles and aircraft launched Kinzhal hypersonic missile systems from the airspace over Crimea. Those missiles targeted what the Russians described as a large storage base for fuels and lubricants of the Ukrainian military near the settlement of Kostyantynivka, in the southern Mykolaiv region.

Separately, the Russian military said Kalibr cruise missiles were fired from the Black Sea, targeting a workshop for the repair of Ukrainian armored vehicles. Russian precision missiles also targeted what Russia described as a Ukrainian military training center near the settlement of Ovruch, in the northern Zhytomyr region.

Cars burn after a Russian military strike in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on October 10. At least 19 people were killed and more than 100 injured in Russian missile strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities on Monday as Moscow targeted critical energy infrastructure.

A fireman helps an injured civilian after several explosions hit the Shevchenkivskyi district of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, on October 10.

Firefighters conduct work on a damaged building after a Russian missile attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on October 10.

A huge blast severely damaged the only bridge connecting annexed Crimea to the Russian mainland on October 8. At least three people were killed in the explosion, which caused parts of Europe's longest bridge to collapse, according to Russian officials.

Ukrainian soldiers ride on an armored vehicle near the recently retaken town of Lyman in Donetsk region on October 6, as the Ukrainian military continues to advance into several of the areas Russia now claims as its own.

Ukrainian firefighters attend to the site of a missile strike in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on October 6.

Ukrainian soldiers prepare to fire a BM-21 'Grad' multiple rocket launcher towards Russian positions in the Kharkiv region on October 4.

Ukrainian servicemen carry a body bag at the site of a missile strike on a convoy of civilian cars that killed at least 30 people near Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on September 30.

Head of the separatist self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Denis Pushilin, left, and Secretary of the United Russia Party's General Council Andrey Turchak attend a news conference on preliminary results of a referendum on the joining of the DPR to Russia, in Donetsk, Ukraine, on September 27.

Anton Krasyvyi rows passengers across the Siverskyi-Donets river in front of a destroyed bridge, so they can visit relatives in Staryi-Saltiv, Ukraine, on September 27.

People wait for food aid distributed by the local branch of Caritas Internationalis, a Catholic charity organisation, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on September 27.

A man glues a referendum poster reading "Yes" in Berdyansk, Ukraine, on September 26. Russia is attempting to annex up to 18% of Ukrainian territory, with President Vladimir Putin expected to host a ceremony in the Kremlin to declare four occupied Ukrainian territories part of Russia.

Forensic technicians operate at the site of a mass grave in a forest on the outskirts of Izyum, eastern Ukraine on September 18. Ukrainian authorities discovered hundreds of graves outside the formerly Russian-occupied city.

Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters put out a fire after a Russian rocket attack hit an electric power station in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on September 11.

Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, speaks to the press at his hotel before leaving to inspect the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on September 1.

Graves of fallen soldiers in Lychakiv Cemetery, Lviv, as Ukrainians celebrate Independence Day, and mark the six month anniversary of the Russian invasion, on August 24.

Rockets launched from the Belgorod region in Russia are seen at dawn in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on August 15.

Valentyna Kondratieva, 75, left, is comforted by a neighbor as they stand outside her damaged home, in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on August 13, after a rocket attack.

The bulk carrier NAVI STAR, transporting a cargo of corn, is seen leaving port of Odesa, Ukraine, on August 5.

A young girl holds her dog as an evacuation train departs from Pokrovsk, eastern Ukraine, on August 2.

Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters attend to a fire at an oil depot in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, on August 2.

A firefighter extinguishes a burning hospital building hit by a Russian missile strike in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, on August 1.

Russian tanks near the settlement of Olenivka in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, on July 29.

Students at a military school write letters to Ukrainian servicemen during a lesson in Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 27.

Firefighters rest as their colleagues remove debris during the search for bodies at the Central House of Culture, in Chuhuiv, Ukraine, after an air strike on July 25.

A man holds the hand of his 13 year-old son, killed by a Russian military strike, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on July 20.

Ukrainian service members fire a shell from a towed howitzer FH-70 at the front line in the Donbas region, Ukraine, on July 18.

Firefighters and members of a rescue team clear the scene after a building was shelled in Chasiv Yar, eastern Ukraine, on July 10. At least 29 people have been confirmed dead.

Local residents look on as smoke rises after shelling in Donetsk, Ukraine, on July 7.

A wounded woman is transported to an ambulance in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on July 7.

A farmer drives a combine harvester past a crater suspected to be caused by an air strike near Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on July 7.

A Ukrainian soldier with the 14th Mechanized Brigade of Prince Roman the Great works in his tank as the unit awaits their next mission on July 1.

An aerial view of rescue workers after a missile attack in the Serhiivka district of Odesa, Ukraine, on July 1.

People attend a funeral ceremony for Ukrainian serviceman Volodymyr Kochetov, 46, in the village of Babyntsi, Ukraine, on June 30.

Firefighters clear rubble at the Amstor shopping mall in Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, Ukraine, on June 28.

Ukrainian State Emergency Service firefighters work to take away debris at a shopping mall after a rocket attack in Kremenchuk, Ukraine, on June 28.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a working session of G7 leaders via video link from his office in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Monday June 27.

An apartment building in the Shevchenkivskiy district of Kyiv, Ukraine, is damaged during a Russian airstrike, on June 26. Several explosions rocked the west of the Ukrainian capital in the early hours of Sunday morning, with at least two residential buildings struck, according to Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko.

Ukrainian service members patrol an area in the city of Severodonetsk, Ukraine, on June 20.

People light flares in memory of the Ukrainian activist Roman Ratushnyi during a farewell ceremony at Baikove cemetery, Kyiv, Ukraine, on June 18.

Oleksiy Chernyshov, Ukrainian President Zelensky's special envoy for EU accession, walks with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian PM Mario Draghi past destroyed buildings in Irpin, Ukraine, on June 16.

Young people swing in front of destroyed residential buildings in Borodyanka, Ukraine, on June 15.

A Ukrainian bomb disposal expert looks at an ordnance shell during a mine clearance operation in Solonytsivka, near Kharkiv, Ukraine, on June 15.

Ukrainian servicemen fire a French 155mm CAESAR self-propelled howitzer towards Russian positions in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on June 15.

A forensic technician inspects a mass grave near the village of Vorzel in the Bucha district near Kyiv, Ukraine, on June 13.

Russian servicemen guard an area of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, Ukraine, on June 13.

Local residents walk along an empty street as smoke rises in the background in the town of Lysychansk, Ukraine, on June 10.

A Ukrainian soldier takes cover during heavy fighting at the front line in Severodonetsk, Ukraine, on Wednesday, June 8.

Ukrainian troops fire surface-to-surface rockets from MLRS towards Russian positions at the front line in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on June 7.

A Ukrainian soldier holds a next generation light anti-tank weapon (NLAW) at a position on the front line near Bakhmut in the Donbas region of Ukraine on June 5.

U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, left, listens to Ukraine's Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktov during a tour of Borodyanka, Ukraine, on June 4.

Local residents examine a destroyed Russian tank outside of Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday, May 31. It has now been 100 days since Russia invaded.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, third from left, visits front-line positions during a trip to the Kharkiv region on Sunday, May 29.

Russian soldier Vadim Shishimarin, 21, is sentenced to life in prison by a Ukrainian court in Kyiv on May 23. He was convicted of killing an unarmed civilian. It was the first war crimes trial arising from Russia's invasion.

Buses with Ukrainian servicemen evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant wait near a prison in Olyonivka on May 17. The steel plant was the last holdout in Mariupol, a city that had become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance under relentless Russian bombardment.

Ukrainian servicemen fire mortars toward Russian positions in the east Kharkiv region of Ukraine on May 17.

A woman named Tatyana searches for her husband's grave in the settlement of Staryi Krym, outside Mariupol, on May 15.

Ukrainian service personnel work inside a basement used as a command post in the Kharkiv region on May 15.