Numerous factors are combining to push gas prices up to a record. Gas hit $4.25 for a gallon of regular gas, according to AAA’s survey Wednesday.
Gas prices were already expected to breach the $4 a gallon mark for the first time since 2008, with or without shots fired or economic sanctions imposed in Eastern Europe.
“I think we reach $5 somewhere between this weekend and Juneteenth/Father’s Day weekend,” he said.
It was back in March that prices first broke the record of $4.11 a gallon, which had stood since 2008. That now seems like the good old days: The national average has been rising steadily for the past month, setting 27 records in the last 28 days.
More than one out of every five gas stations nationwide is now charging more than $5 a gallon for regular, and just more than half are charging $4.75.
There are 10 states, plus Washington, DC, where the average price is already at $5 or more: Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Nevada, Oregon and Washington. Several more are within a penny of $5, so those states’ prices are likely only a day or two at most from crossing the mark.
But prices aren’t likely to fall much whenever they do start to retreat. And Kloza expects they could once again set a record after schools let out and drivers start hitting the road for vacations next month.
“Anything goes from June 20 to Labor Day,” Kloza said.
Here’s what’s behind the record price surge:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Russia is one of the largest oil exporters on the planet. In December it sent nearly 8 million barrels of oil and other petroleum products to global markets, 5 million of them as crude oil.
Very little of that went to the United States. Europe got 60% of the oil and 20% went to China in 2021. But oil is priced on global commodity markets, so the loss of Russian oil affects oil prices around the globe, no matter where it is used.
The concerns about disrupting global markets led western nations to initially exempt Russian oil and natural gas from the sanctions they put in place to protest the invasion.
On Tuesday the United States announced a formal ban on all Russian energy imports. The UK government said it, too, will phase out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022 and explore ways of ending natural gas imports.
China lockdowns ending
One factor keeping oil prices somewhat in check has been the surge of Covid cases, and strict lockdown rules in much of the country. That was a major drag on demand for oil.
But as the Covid surge has started to retreat, the lockdowns are being lifted in major cities such as Shanghai. And more demand without increased supply can only drive up prices.
Less oil and gasoline from other sources
When pandemic-related stay-at-home orders around the world crushed demand for oil in the spring of 2020, oil plunged, briefly trading at negative prices. OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed to slash production as a way to support prices. Even when demand returned sooner than expected, they kept production targets low.
US oil companies don’t follow those types of nationally mandated production targets. But they have been reluctant or unable to resume producing oil at pre-pandemic levels amid concerns about the prospect of tougher environmental rules that could cut future demand. Many of those tougher rules have been scaled back or failed to become law.
“The Biden administration is suddenly interested in more drilling, not less,” said Robert McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group. “People are more worried about high oil prices than anything else.”
“They can’t find people, and can’t find equipment,” McNally added. “It’s not like they’re available at a premium price. They’re just not available.”
Oil stocks have generally lagged the broader market over the last two years, at least until the recent run-up in prices. Oil company executives wanted to redirect cash to buying back stock and other ways to help their share price rather than increase production.
“Oil and gas companies do not want to drill more,” said Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James. “They are under pressure from the financial community to pay more dividends, to do more share buybacks instead of the proverbial ‘drill baby drill,’ which is the way they would have done things 10 years ago. Corporate strategy has fundamentally changed.”
One of the starkest examples: ExxonMobil (XOM) last month announced first quarter profits of $8.8 billion, more than triple the level of a year ago when excluding special items. It also announced a $30 billion share repurchase plan, far more than the $21 billion to $24 billion it expects to spend on all capital investment, including searching for new oil.
Not only is oil production lagging behind pre-pandemic levels, there’s also less US refining capacity. Today, about 1 million fewer barrels of oil a day are available to be broken into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other petroleum-based products.
State and federal environmental rules are prompting some refineries to switch from oil to lower carbon renewable fuels. And some companies are closing older refineries rather than invest the money it would cost to retool to keep them operating, especially with massive new refineries set to open overseas in Asia, the Middle East and Africa in 2023.
And major US refineries have yet to return to full operation after two were damaged by hurricanes last year and another by an explosion.
“Economics mandate you make more jet and diesel fuel to the detriment of gasoline,” said Kloza.
And with prices in Europe even higher than in the United States, both Canadian and US oil producers have increased exports of oil and gasoline to the continent. That has also limited the US supply.
Strong demand for gasoline
The US economy had record job growth in 2021, and while those gains have slowed, they remain historically strong. Demand is getting another boost as the many employees who have been working from home for much of the last two years return to the office.
The start of the summer travel season on Memorial Day weekend is likely to spark the typical annual increases in demand for gas and jet fuel. US airlines all report very strong bookings for summer travel, even with airfares climbing above pre-pandemic levels.
The end of the Omicron surge and the removal of many Covid restrictions is encouraging people to get out of the house for more shopping, entertainment and travel well. US trips in passenger vehicles have increased 25% since the beginning of this year, according to the mobility research firm Inrix.
“Come hell or high gas prices, people are going to take vacations,” said Kloza.
There may not be quite as much commuting as before the pandemic. Many who plan to return to the office will be there only three or four days a week, rather than five. The total number of jobs is still slightly below 2019 levels.
“Even before Ukraine, I was expecting to break the record,” Kloza said. “Now it’s a question of how much we break the record by.”