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Hurricane Humberto rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm Friday and Saturday over the warm, energy-filled water of the open Atlantic Ocean. But there’s a quiet threat creeping toward the Southeast coast that people there should keep their eye on.
A strengthening tropical depression brewing near the Bahamas has been trending away from a direct landfall along the Southeast coast, but it could still bring flooding rain, coastal storm surge, gusty winds and dangerous surf there as early as Monday.
Tropical Depression Nine formed Saturday morning between Cuba and the Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm could become Tropical Storm Imelda Sunday, and a Category 1 hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Bahamas this weekend, and tropical storm watches are now up for the east coast of Florida from the Palm Beach and Martin County line northward to the Flagler and Volusia County line. Tropical storm-force winds are possible in those parts of the state on Monday, though the system is expected to remain offshore as it moves north.
Forecast models take the storm’s center across the Bahamas this weekend north toward the Southeast coast before it slows down and gets pulled east by Humberto away from the coast by early next week.
But even if the future Imelda does not make landfall, impacts from heavy rain and coastal flooding are still likely.
What to know if you live along the Southeast coast
The first effects from the storm could reach the Southeast as early as Monday, with coastal areas of eastern Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas expected to see brunt of the storm’s impacts.
Flooding rain is still a concern, especially in the coastal Carolinas, even with the center of the storm forecast to remain offshore of the Southeast US. Onshore winds could will also kick up high surf that could cause coastal flooding and beach erosion.
The rainfall forecast has trended down since Saturday. Totals of 1 to 4 inches are now forecast in the coastal Carolinas through Wednesday morning.
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster issued a state of emergency Friday in anticipation of the storm, activating statewide response plans and mobilizing agencies to prepare for significant wind, flooding rain and storm surge across the state.
The City of Charleston declared a local state of emergency Saturday ahead of the storm, and began distributing sandbags and clearing storm drains, according to a statement.
While no mandatory evacuation orders are in place, residents should still be prepared, McMaster warned at a news conference Saturday.
“We know we’re going to have high winds, we know we’re going to have a lot of water, we know that we’re going to have flooding in parts of the state, maybe some parts that we haven’t seen before,” he said.
Emergency Management Department Director Kim Stenson said officials are anticipating a “full state of South Carolina event,” with rain and wind impacting not just coastal areas.
North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein also issued a state of emergency Saturday. Officials are “readying swift water rescue teams, search and rescue task forces, law enforcement, National Guard, and other resources,” Stein said in a statement.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency is “postured and ready to support states along the Southeast coast, as needed,” and is “actively engaged” with several states, it said in a statement.
Meanwhile, over the open Atlantic, Hurricane Humberto rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm Friday and Saturday while tracking over warm water and a less hostile environment in the central Atlantic.
Humberto weakened slightly to a high-end Category 4 hurricane Sunday morning. It’s expected to remain a powerful Category 4 storm into early in the work week.
It is not a direct threat to the US, but it might bring some impacts to Bermuda next week as it tracks west of the archipelago.
Humberto’s size and position could influence how future Imelda develops, how quickly it moves and where it tracks.
Large swells from both this system and Hurricane Humberto lurking off the coast will add to the danger, creating life-threatening rip currents up and down the Eastern Seaboard next week.
How the forecast could shift
There is an “above average” amount of uncertainty surrounding this forecast, the National Hurricane Center noted in its online forecast discussion. Weather models now have a defined center of rotation to analyze to begin to have a chance of accurately forecasting a storm’s trajectory, but other weather systems will also play a major role in determining future Imelda’s path.
How this storm ultimately behaves will depend not only on its own strength and speed but also on the position of Hurricane Humberto spinning offshore, and a weather system over the continental US. Humberto’s circulation could tug the developing storm away from land or, if the timing is different, leave it behind and allow it to drift closer to the coast.
Three main possibilities are on the table, in order from most to least likely:
- The storm could hook out to sea before reaching land, sparing the US from its worst impacts. However, heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge flooding could still occur along the coast in this scenario.
- Future Imelda could also stall just off the coast, lingering close enough to wring out days of heavy rain and push water onshore.
- The most concerning scenario is a landfall somewhere along the Carolina or Georgia coast. This would kick off a long-duration flooding event, but the odds of that track happening have decreased significantly over the past day.
Anyone from the Bahamas to the US East Coast will need to keep a close eye on the forecast this weekend for what’s likely to be Imelda as rain, wind and storm surge threats come into better focus. This homegrown storm will leave a very narrow window to prepare.
CNN’s Elise Hammond contributed to this report.