About the Tracking Polls

Previous Polls

• October 13-23
• October 3-13
• September 21-October 2
• September 11-22
• September 2-12

Interviews with 1,103 likely voters, conducted Oct. 23 - Nov. 2, 1996. Note that the margin of error has changed from plus or minus four percentage points to plus or minus three points.

Today's results are identical to the horse-race figures from yesterday's tracking poll. If the election were held today, Bill Clinton would win 50 percent of all likely voters, with Bob Dole at 37 percent and Ross Perot at 7 percent. That stability may not last in the campaign's final few days, but today's figures show that the race has not experienced any significant changes since Labor Day.

Suppose that the 1996 presidential election were being held today and it included Bill Clinton and Al Gore as the Democratic candidates, Bob Dole and Jack Kemp as the Republican candidates, and Ross Perot and Pat Choate as the Reform Party candidates. Would you vote for Bill Clinton and Al Gore, the Democrats -- Bob Dole and Jack Kemp, the Republicans -- or Ross Perot, the Reform Party candidate? If undecided, as of today, do you lean toward Clinton and Gore, the Democrats, Dole and Kemp, the Republicans, or Perot and Choate, the Reform Party candidates?

Likely Voters
Clinton Dole Perot	10/24-25 54% 34% 7%	10/25-26 52% 35% 8%	10/26-27 49% 37% 7%	10/27-28 51% 35% 7%	10/28-29 49% 35% 11%	10/29-30 51% 35% 10%	10/30-31 52% 34% 10%	10/31-11/1 50% 37% 7%	11/1-2 50% 37% 7%

Question to Perot voters: Who would be your second choice for President -- Dole or Clinton?

Likely Voters
Clinton Dole	10/24-25 57% 36%	10/25-26 55% 38%	10/26-27 53% 39%	10/27-28 55% 36%	10/28-29 55% 38%	10/29-30 56% 39%	10/30-31 55% 38%	10/31-11/1 53% 39%	11/1-2 54% 38%

Next, I will read off the names of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him.

Likely Voters
Bill Clinton Favorable Unfavorable	10/14-15 59% 36%	10/15-16 58% 38%	10/16-17 58% 38%	10/17-18 61% 34%	10/18-19 58% 37%	10/19-20 59% 36%	10/30-31 60% 37%	10/31-11/1 59% 37%	11/1-2 58% 37%

If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district -- the Democratic party's candidate or the Republican party's candidate? (IF UNDECIDED: Do you lean more toward the Democratic party's candidate or the Republican party's candidate?)

Likely Voters
Democratic Republican	10/24-25 51% 42%	10/25-26 50% 43%	10/26-27 49% 44%	10/27-28 50% 42%	10/28-29 48% 45%	10/29-30 50% 45%	10/30-31 51% 44%	10/31-11/1 49% 46%	11/1-2 50% 44%

Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me whether you think each of the following statements better applies to Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, or Ross Perot?

Would do a better job handling the economy:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/24-25 48% 31% 14% 3%

10/25-26 46% 31% 16% 2%

10/26-27 43% 32% 16% 2%

10/27-28 45% 30% 15% 3%

10/28-29 45% 30% 18% 2%

10/29-30 44% 31% 20% 1%

10/30-31 45% 29% 20% 2%

10/31-11/1 43% 32% 17% 2%

11/1-2 45% 30% 18% 2%

Would do a better job handling foreign affairs:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/24-25 51% 39% 3% 1%

10/25-26 49% 39% 4% 1%

10/26-27 47% 40% 3% 3%

10/27-28 49% 39% 3% 3%

10/28-29 49% 39% 4% 2%

10/29-30 49% 39% 5% 2%

10/30-31 49% 39% 5% 2%

10/31-11/1 48% 40% 5% 2%

11/1-2 48% 40% 4% 2%

Shares your views on the size and role of government:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/24-25 44% 32% 13% 5%

10/25-26 42% 33% 13% 5%

10/26-27 41% 34% 12% 4%

10/27-28 43% 32% 13% 3%

10/28-29 40% 34% 15% 4%

10/29-30 40% 34% 14% 6%

10/30-31 42% 32% 15% 5%

10/31-11/1 41% 34% 13% 5%

11/1-2 42% 33% 14% 4%

Would provide the best moral leadership for the country:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/24-25 36% 44% 10% 6%

10/25-26 36% 44% 11% 4%

10/26-27 35% 43% 9% 6%

10/27-28 36% 43% 8% 5%

10/28-29 34% 46% 9% 5%

10/29-30 34% 46% 10% 5%

10/30-31 36% 43% 11% 5%

10/31-11/1 32% 45% 11% 5%

11/1-2 34% 44% 10% 6%

Would do the best job of handling taxes:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/24-25 44% 32% 13% 5%

10/25-26 41% 33% 15% 4%

10/26-27 39% 33% 15% 4%

10/27-28 40% 33% 15% 4%

10/28-29 38% 37% 16% 4%

10/29-30 39% 35% 17% 5%

10/30-31 41% 30% 19% 4%

10/31-11/1 38% 32% 18% 5%

11/1-2 40% 32% 18% 3%

Can be trusted to keep his promises:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/24-25 37% 34% 10% 13%

10/25-26 35% 36% 9% 13%

10/26-27 32% 36% 9% 14%

10/27-28 33% 35% 10% 13%

10/28-29 31% 37% 12% 13%

10/29-30 33% 35% 12% 14%

10/30-31 35% 34% 13% 12%

10/31-11/1 31% 37% 12% 13%

11/1-2 32% 35% 11% 15%

Other Results:

(Editor's Note: These are results of questions asked as part of some of the daily surveys.)

Oct. 30-31

Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me whether you think each of the following statements better applies to Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, or Ross Perot?

Would have an administration with the highest ethical standards:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/29-30 30% 44% 12% 7%

* = Volunteered response.

It has been suggested that the federal government provide a fixed amount of money for the election campaigns of candidates for the presidency and for Congress, and that all private contributions be prohibited. Do you think this is a good idea or a poor idea?
 

Likely Voters
Good idea Bad idea	10/29-30 65% 27%



All Americans
Good idea Bad idea	1973 56% 28%	1974 67% 27%

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

It has been suggested that the federal government provide a fixed amount of money for the election campaigns of candidates for Congress, and that all private contributions be prohibited. Do you think this is a good idea or a poor idea?
 

Likely Voters
Good idea Bad idea	10/29-30 64% 28%



All Americans
Good idea Bad idea	1977 57% 32%	1979 57% 30%	1982 55% 31%	1984 52% 36%	1987 50% 42%

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Please tell me how important each of the following factors are to your vote for president this year.... extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?

The candidates' education policies:
 

Likely Voters
Extremely Very Somewhat Not important	10/29-30 40% 45% 12% 3%

The candidates' economic policies:
 

Likely Voters
Extremely Very Somewhat Not important	10/29-30 35% 53% 9% 2%

The candidates' policies dealing with crime:
 

Likely Voters
Extremely Very Somewhat Not important	10/29-30 35% 48% 13% 3%

The candidates' campaign finances:
 

Likely Voters
Extremely Very Somewhat Not important	10/29-30 14% 27% 37% 20%

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Next, we'd like to rate the ethics of the national DEMOCRATIC Party when it comes to raising campaign money from political contributors. Would you say they are very ethical, moderately ethical, moderately unethical, or very unethical?
 

Likely Voters
Very ethical Moderately ethical Moderately unethical Very unethical	10/29-30 6% 41% 27% 17%

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Next, we'd like to rate the ethics of the national REPUBLICAN Party when it comes to raising campaign money from political contributors. Would you say they are very ethical, moderately ethical, moderately unethical, or very unethical?
 

Likely Voters
Very ethical Moderately ethical Moderately unethical Very unethical	10/29-30 8% 50% 23% 9%

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Oct. 28-29

Do you think the policies being proposed by the Republican leaders in the U.S. House and Senate would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?


Right direction Wrong direction	10/28-29 49% 36%

Do you think the policies being proposed by President Clinton would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?


Right direction Wrong direction	10/28-29 55% 33%

Do you think Bob Dole's proposals for dealing with issues facing the country are too old and out of date, or not?


Yes, too old No, not too old	10/28-29 38% 53%

Oct. 27-28

Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following political officeholders deserves to be re-elected:

The U.S. representative in your congressional district:


Deserves re-election Does not deserve	10/26-27 61% 19%	10/27-28 62% 19%

Most members of the U.S. House of Representatives:


Deserves re-election Does not deserve	10/26-27 53% 25%	10/27-28 55% 26%

Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

If Bill Clinton is re-elected president in November, which party would you prefer to have in control of Congress -- the Republican party or the Democratic party?


Democratic Republican Neither* Doesn't matter*	9/6-8 44% 47% 2% 3%	10/26-27 48% 47% 1% 1%	10/27-28 47% 47% 1% 2%

* = Volunteered response. Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

Oct. 22-23

Compared to previous elections, do you feel more enthusiastic about voting than you usually do, less enthusiastic, or about the same? 

More Less Same	All 21% 32% 46%	Demo- crats 26% 19% 54%	Repub- licans 19% 40% 39%	Clinton Voters 23% 24% 52%	Dole Voters 20% 39% 40%

Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

Does the outcome of this year's presidential election matter to you more than in previous years, less than in previous years, or about the same? 

More Less Same	All 44% 6% 49%	Demo- crats 46% 6% 48%	Repub- licans 48% 6% 45%	Clinton Voters 42% 7% 51%	Dole Voters 53% 3% 43%

Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

Next, I'm going to read three statements about the election. As I read each one, please say whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each one:

If Bill Clinton appears likely to win on election day, I will have less interest in voting than in previous years.
 

Strongly Agree Somewhat agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree	All 13% 9% 18% 56%	Demo- crats 16% 9% 18% 54%	Repub- licans 11% 8% 18% 60%	Clinton Voters 12% 9% 19% 56%	Dole Voters 13% 8% 14% 63%

Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

The stakes in this presidential election are higher than in previous years.
 

Strongly Agree Somewhat agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree	All 37% 30% 20% 9%	Demo- crats 37% 30% 20% 10%	Repub- licans 41% 31% 20% 5%	Clinton Voters 32% 30% 24% 11%	Dole Voters 47% 30% 15% 5%

Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

I am afraid of what will happen if my candidate for president does not win.
 

Strongly Agree Somewhat agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree	All 35% 24% 22% 15%	Demo- crats 41% 22% 20% 14%	Repub- licans 37% 25% 21% 12%	Clinton Voters 37% 22% 23% 15%	Dole Voters 40% 27% 19% 11%

Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

Oct. 19-20

At any time over the past two months, have you changed your mind about which candidate you will support for President?
 

Yes No

10/19-20 10% 90%

Next, I will read off the names of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him.

Likely Voters
Bill Clinton Favorable Unfavorable	10/11-12 62% 35%	10/12-13 60% 35%	10/13-14 58% 36%	10/14-15 59% 36%	10/15-16 58% 38%	10/16-17 58% 38%	10/17-18 61% 34%	10/18-19 58% 37%	10/19-20 59% 36%

Likely Voters
Bob Dole Favorable Unfavorable	10/11-12 54% 39%	10/12-13 56% 37%	10/13-14 54% 37%	10/14-15 53% 38%	10/15-16 53% 41%	10/16-17 51% 41%	10/17-18 50% 43%	10/18-19 53% 40%	10/19-20 52% 42%

Likely Voters
Ross Perot Favorable Unfavorable	10/11-12 31% 55%	10/12-13 31% 54%	10/13-14 31% 53%	10/14-15 32% 52%	10/15-16 32% 55%	10/16-17 32% 54%	10/17-18 32% 55%	10/18-19 32% 54%	10/19-20 32% 54%

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Do you feel Bob Dole is too old to be president, or not?
      

Yes No	10/11-12 31% 66%	10/12-13 33% 64%	10/13-14 31% 65%	10/14-15 30% 67%	10/15-16 32% 66%	10/16-17 29% 69%	10/17-18 30% 67%	10/18-19 30% 67%	10/19-20 32% 67%

Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me whether you think each of the following statements better applies to Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, or Ross Perot?

Currently has the best political campaign:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*	10/12-13 70% 16% 1% 6%	10/13-14 70% 17% 2% 4%	10/14-15 69% 17% 2% 5%	10/15-16 69% 16% 2% 5%	10/16-17 70% 15% 3% 5%	10/17-18 75% 14% 2% 3%	10/18-19 72% 17% 2% 3%	10/19-20 72% 15% 2% 5%

Would do the best job handling Medicare:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*	10/12-13 52% 32% 5% 2%	10/13-14 50% 32% 6% 3%	10/14-15 50% 33% 6% 3%	10/15-16 49% 32% 7% 3%	10/16-17 48% 31% 8% 3%	10/17-18 52% 30% 9% 2%	10/18-19 51% 33% 7% 3%	10/19-20 52% 32% 7% 2%

Cares about the needs of people like you:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*	10/12-13 49% 33% 6% 8%	10/13-14 46% 34% 8% 8%	10/14-15 44% 33% 10% 9%	10/15-16 46% 33% 9% 9%	10/16-17 48% 32% 10% 7%	10/17-18 50% 29% 9% 9%	10/18-19 50% 31% 8% 7%	10/19-20 51% 29% 8% 8%

* = Volunteered response. Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

Oct. 16-17

Do you support the "Clinton/Gore," "Dole/Kemp" or "Perot/Choate" ticket strongly, or only moderately?

Likely Voters
Clinton Voters Strongly Moderately	10/2-3 51% 47%	10/7-8 57% 42%	10/13-14 59% 40%	10/14-15 57% 41%	10/15-16 58% 41%	10/16-17 59% 39%

Dole Voters Strongly Moderately

10/2-3 58% 41%

10/7-8 59% 40%

10/13-14 56% 43%

10/14-15 56% 43%

10/15-16 57% 41%

10/16-17 58% 39%

NOTE: Too few Perot/Choate voters for statistically valid results. Sampling error: +/-5 percentage points

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