Polls

About the Tracking Polls

Previous Polls

Interviews with 1,103 likely voters, conducted Oct. 23 - Nov. 2, 1996. Note that the margin of error has changed from plus or minus four percentage points to plus or minus three points.


Poll results

Likely Voters' Presidential Choice
Clinton
Dole
Perot
50%
37%
7%
Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

Today's results are identical to the horse-race figures from yesterday's tracking poll. If the election were held today, Bill Clinton would win 50 percent of all likely voters, with Bob Dole at 37 percent and Ross Perot at 7 percent. That stability may not last in the campaign's final few days, but today's figures show that the race has not experienced any significant changes since Labor Day.


Suppose that the 1996 presidential election were being held today and it included Bill Clinton and Al Gore as the Democratic candidates, Bob Dole and Jack Kemp as the Republican candidates, and Ross Perot and Pat Choate as the Reform Party candidates. Would you vote for Bill Clinton and Al Gore, the Democrats -- Bob Dole and Jack Kemp, the Republicans -- or Ross Perot, the Reform Party candidate? If undecided, as of today, do you lean toward Clinton and Gore, the Democrats, Dole and Kemp, the Republicans, or Perot and Choate, the Reform Party candidates?
Likely Voters

Clinton
Dole
Perot
10/24-25
54%
34%
7%
10/25-26
52%
35%
8%
10/26-27
49%
37%
7%
10/27-28
51%
35%
7%
10/28-29
49%
35%
11%
10/29-30
51%
35%
10%
10/30-31
52%
34%
10%
10/31-11/1
50%
37%
7%
11/1-2
50%
37%
7%

Question to Perot voters: Who would be your second choice for President -- Dole or Clinton?
Likely Voters

Clinton
Dole
10/24-25
57%
36%
10/25-26
55%
38%
10/26-27
53%
39%
10/27-28
55%
36%
10/28-29
55%
38%
10/29-30
56%
39%
10/30-31
55%
38%
10/31-11/1
53%
39%
11/1-2
54%
38%

Next, I will read off the names of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him.
Likely Voters
Bill Clinton
Favorable
Unfavorable
10/14-15
59%
36%
10/15-16
58%
38%
10/16-17
58%
38%
10/17-18
61%
34%
10/18-19
58%
37%
10/19-20
59%
36%
10/30-31
60%
37%
10/31-11/1
59%
37%
11/1-2
58%
37%

Likely Voters
Bob Dole
Favorable
Unfavorable
10/14-15
53%
38%
10/15-16
53%
41%
10/16-17
51%
41%
10/17-18
50%
43%
10/18-19
53%
40%
10/19-20
52%
42%
10/30-31
51%
41%
10/31-11/1
53%
39%
11/1-2
52%
41%

Likely Voters
Ross Perot
Favorable
Unfavorable
10/14-15
32%
52%
10/15-16
32%
55%
10/16-17
32%
54%
10/17-18
32%
55%
10/18-19
32%
54%
10/19-20
32%
54%
10/30-31
41%
45%
10/31-11/1
39%
44%
11/1-2
39%
46%

If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district -- the Democratic party's candidate or the Republican party's candidate? (IF UNDECIDED: Do you lean more toward the Democratic party's candidate or the Republican party's candidate?)
Likely Voters

Democratic
Republican
10/24-25
51%
42%
10/25-26
50%
43%
10/26-27
49%
44%
10/27-28
50%
42%
10/28-29
48%
45%
10/29-30
50%
45%
10/30-31
51%
44%
10/31-11/1
49%
46%
11/1-2
50%
44%

Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me whether you think each of the following statements better applies to Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, or Ross Perot?


Would do a better job handling the economy:
 

Clinton

Dole
Perot
None*
10/24-25
48%
31%
14%
3%
10/25-26
46%
31%
16%
2%
10/26-27
43%
32%
16%
2%
10/27-28
45%
30%
15%
3%
10/28-29
45%
30%
18%
2%
10/29-30
44%
31%
20%
1%
10/30-31
45%
29%
20%
2%
10/31-11/1
43%
32%
17%
2%
11/1-2
45%
30%
18%
2%

Would do a better job handling foreign affairs:
 

Clinton

Dole
Perot
None*
10/24-25
51%
39%
3%
1%
10/25-26
49%
39%
4%
1%
10/26-27
47%
40%
3%
3%
10/27-28
49%
39%
3%
3%
10/28-29
49%
39%
4%
2%
10/29-30
49%
39%
5%
2%
10/30-31
49%
39%
5%
2%
10/31-11/1
48%
40%
5%
2%
11/1-2
48%
40%
4%
2%

Shares your views on the size and role of government:
 

Clinton

Dole
Perot
None*
10/24-25
44%
32%
13%
5%
10/25-26
42%
33%
13%
5%
10/26-27
41%
34%
12%
4%
10/27-28
43%
32%
13%
3%
10/28-29
40%
34%
15%
4%
10/29-30
40%
34%
14%
6%
10/30-31
42%
32%
15%
5%
10/31-11/1
41%
34%
13%
5%
11/1-2
42%
33%
14%
4%

Would provide the best moral leadership for the country:
 

Clinton

Dole
Perot
None*
10/24-25
36%
44%
10%
6%
10/25-26
36%
44%
11%
4%
10/26-27
35%
43%
9%
6%
10/27-28
36%
43%
8%
5%
10/28-29
34%
46%
9%
5%
10/29-30
34%
46%
10%
5%
10/30-31
36%
43%
11%
5%
10/31-11/1
32%
45%
11%
5%
11/1-2
34%
44%
10%
6%

Would do the best job of handling taxes:
 

Clinton

Dole
Perot
None*
10/24-25
44%
32%
13%
5%
10/25-26
41%
33%
15%
4%
10/26-27
39%
33%
15%
4%
10/27-28
40%
33%
15%
4%
10/28-29
38%
37%
16%
4%
10/29-30
39%
35%
17%
5%
10/30-31
41%
30%
19%
4%
10/31-11/1
38%
32%
18%
5%
11/1-2
40%
32%
18%
3%

Can be trusted to keep his promises:
 

Clinton

Dole
Perot
None*
10/24-25
37%
34%
10%
13%
10/25-26
35%
36%
9%
13%
10/26-27
32%
36%
9%
14%
10/27-28
33%
35%
10%
13%
10/28-29
31%
37%
12%
13%
10/29-30
33%
35%
12%
14%
10/30-31
35%
34%
13%
12%
10/31-11/1
31%
37%
12%
13%
11/1-2
32%
35%
11%
15%




Other Results:

(Editor's Note: These are results of questions asked as part of some of the daily surveys.)

Oct. 30-31

Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me whether you think each of the following statements better applies to Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, or Ross Perot?

Would have an administration with the highest ethical standards:
 

Clinton

Dole
Perot
None*
10/29-30
30%
44%
12%
7%
* = Volunteered response.


It has been suggested that the federal government provide a fixed amount of money for the election campaigns of candidates for the presidency and for Congress, and that all private contributions be prohibited. Do you think this is a good idea or a poor idea?
 
Likely Voters

Good idea

Bad idea
10/29-30
65%
27%

All Americans

Good idea

Bad idea
1973
56%
28%
1974
67%
27%
Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

It has been suggested that the federal government provide a fixed amount of money for the election campaigns of candidates for Congress, and that all private contributions be prohibited. Do you think this is a good idea or a poor idea?
 
Likely Voters

Good idea

Bad idea
10/29-30
64%
28%

All Americans

Good idea

Bad idea
1977
57%
32%
1979
57%
30%
1982
55%
31%
1984
52%
36%
1987
50%
42%
Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Please tell me how important each of the following factors are to your vote for president this year.... extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?

The candidates' education policies:
 
Likely Voters

Extremely

Very
Somewhat
Not important
10/29-30
40%
45%
12%
3%

The candidates' economic policies:
 
Likely Voters

Extremely

Very
Somewhat
Not important
10/29-30
35%
53%
9%
2%

The candidates' policies dealing with crime:
 
Likely Voters

Extremely

Very
Somewhat
Not important
10/29-30
35%
48%
13%
3%

The candidates' campaign finances:
 
Likely Voters

Extremely

Very
Somewhat
Not important
10/29-30
14%
27%
37%
20%
Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points


Next, we'd like to rate the ethics of the national DEMOCRATIC Party when it comes to raising campaign money from political contributors. Would you say they are very ethical, moderately ethical, moderately unethical, or very unethical?
 
Likely Voters

Very ethical

Moderately ethical
Moderately unethical
Very unethical
10/29-30
6%
41%
27%
17%
Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Next, we'd like to rate the ethics of the national REPUBLICAN Party when it comes to raising campaign money from political contributors. Would you say they are very ethical, moderately ethical, moderately unethical, or very unethical?
 
Likely Voters

Very ethical

Moderately ethical
Moderately unethical
Very unethical
10/29-30
8%
50%
23%
9%
Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Oct. 28-29

Do you think the policies being proposed by the Republican leaders in the U.S. House and Senate would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?


Right direction

Wrong direction
10/28-29
49%
36%

Do you think the policies being proposed by President Clinton would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?


Right direction

Wrong direction
10/28-29
55%
33%

Do you think Bob Dole's proposals for dealing with issues facing the country are too old and out of date, or not?


Yes, too old

No, not too old
10/28-29
38%
53%

Oct. 27-28


Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following political officeholders deserves to be re-elected:

The U.S. representative in your congressional district:


Deserves re-election

Does not deserve
10/26-27
61%
19%
10/27-28
62%
19%

Most members of the U.S. House of Representatives:


Deserves re-election

Does not deserve
10/26-27
53%
25%
10/27-28
55%
26%
Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points



If Bill Clinton is re-elected president in November, which party would you prefer to have in control of Congress -- the Republican party or the Democratic party?


Democratic

Republican
Neither*

Doesn't matter*
9/6-8
44%
47%
2%
3%
10/26-27
48%
47%
1%
1%
10/27-28
47%
47%
1%
2%
* = Volunteered response. Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

Oct. 22-23


Compared to previous elections, do you feel more enthusiastic about voting than you usually do, less enthusiastic, or about the same? 


More

Less
Same

All
21%
32%
46%
Demo-
crats
26%
19%
54%
Repub-
licans
19%
40%
39%
Clinton
Voters
23%
24%
52%
Dole
Voters
20%
39%
40%
Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points


Does the outcome of this year's presidential election matter to you more than in previous years, less than in previous years, or about the same? 


More

Less
Same

All
44%
6%
49%
Demo-
crats
46%
6%
48%
Repub-
licans
48%
6%
45%
Clinton
Voters
42%
7%
51%
Dole
Voters
53%
3%
43%
Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

Next, I'm going to read three statements about the election. As I read each one, please say whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each one:


If Bill Clinton appears likely to win on election day, I will have less interest in voting than in previous years.
 


Strongly Agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree

All
13%
9%
18%
56%
Demo-
crats
16%
9%
18%
54%
Repub-
licans
11%
8%
18%
60%
Clinton
Voters
12%
9%
19%
56%
Dole
Voters
13%
8%
14%
63%
Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points


The stakes in this presidential election are higher than in previous years.
 


Strongly Agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree

All
37%
30%
20%
9%
Demo-
crats
37%
30%
20%
10%
Repub-
licans
41%
31%
20%
5%
Clinton
Voters
32%
30%
24%
11%
Dole
Voters
47%
30%
15%
5%
Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points


I am afraid of what will happen if my candidate for president does not win.
 


Strongly Agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree

All
35%
24%
22%
15%
Demo-
crats
41%
22%
20%
14%
Repub-
licans
37%
25%
21%
12%
Clinton
Voters
37%
22%
23%
15%
Dole
Voters
40%
27%
19%
11%
Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

Oct. 19-20

At any time over the past two months, have you changed your mind about which candidate you will support for President?
 

Yes

No
10/19-20
10%
90%

Next, I will read off the names of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him.
Likely Voters
Bill Clinton
Favorable
Unfavorable
10/11-12
62%
35%
10/12-13
60%
35%
10/13-14
58%
36%
10/14-15
59%
36%
10/15-16
58%
38%
10/16-17
58%
38%
10/17-18
61%
34%
10/18-19
58%
37%
10/19-20
59%
36%

Likely Voters
Bob Dole
Favorable
Unfavorable
10/11-12
54%
39%
10/12-13
56%
37%
10/13-14
54%
37%
10/14-15
53%
38%
10/15-16
53%
41%
10/16-17
51%
41%
10/17-18
50%
43%
10/18-19
53%
40%
10/19-20
52%
42%

Likely Voters
Ross Perot
Favorable
Unfavorable
10/11-12
31%
55%
10/12-13
31%
54%
10/13-14
31%
53%
10/14-15
32%
52%
10/15-16
32%
55%
10/16-17
32%
54%
10/17-18
32%
55%
10/18-19
32%
54%
10/19-20
32%
54%

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Do you feel Bob Dole is too old to be president, or not?
      

Yes

No
10/11-12
31%
66%
10/12-13
33%
64%
10/13-14
31%
65%
10/14-15
30%
67%
10/15-16
32%
66%
10/16-17
29%
69%
10/17-18
30%
67%
10/18-19
30%
67%
10/19-20
32%
67%

Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me whether you think each of the following statements better applies to Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, or Ross Perot?

Currently has the best political campaign:
 

Clinton

Dole
Perot
None*
10/12-13
70%
16%
1%
6%
10/13-14
70%
17%
2%
4%
10/14-15
69%
17%
2%
5%
10/15-16
69%
16%
2%
5%
10/16-17
70%
15%
3%
5%
10/17-18
75%
14%
2%
3%
10/18-19
72%
17%
2%
3%
10/19-20
72%
15%
2%
5%

Would do the best job handling Medicare:
 

Clinton

Dole
Perot
None*
10/12-13
52%
32%
5%
2%
10/13-14
50%
32%
6%
3%
10/14-15
50%
33%
6%
3%
10/15-16
49%
32%
7%
3%
10/16-17
48%
31%
8%
3%
10/17-18
52%
30%
9%
2%
10/18-19
51%
33%
7%
3%
10/19-20
52%
32%
7%
2%

Cares about the needs of people like you:
 

Clinton

Dole
Perot
None*
10/12-13
49%
33%
6%
8%
10/13-14
46%
34%
8%
8%
10/14-15
44%
33%
10%
9%
10/15-16
46%
33%
9%
9%
10/16-17
48%
32%
10%
7%
10/17-18
50%
29%
9%
9%
10/18-19
50%
31%
8%
7%
10/19-20
51%
29%
8%
8%

* = Volunteered response. Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

Oct. 16-17

Do you support the "Clinton/Gore," "Dole/Kemp" or "Perot/Choate" ticket strongly, or only moderately?
Likely Voters
Clinton Voters
Strongly
Moderately
10/2-3
51%
47%
10/7-8
57%
42%
10/13-14
59%
40%
10/14-15
57%
41%
10/15-16
58%
41%
10/16-17
59%
39%

Dole Voters
Strongly
Moderately
10/2-3
58%
41%
10/7-8
59%
40%
10/13-14
56%
43%
10/14-15
56%
43%
10/15-16
57%
41%
10/16-17
58%
39%

NOTE: Too few Perot/Choate voters for statistically valid results. Sampling error: +/-5 percentage points



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