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Poll: Bush Leads GOP Field For 2000

By Keating Holland/CNN

WASHINGTON (May 11) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush leads the field of potential Republican presidential candidates for the year 2000, followed distantly by Elizabeth Dole, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll.

Thirty percent of all Republicans nationwide currently make Bush their first choice for the party's nod two years from now.

On the Democratic side, Vice President Al Gore maintains a commanding lead over any of his rivals, with more than four times as much support among Democrats nationwide as Jesse Jackson, who finishes second to the vice president.

In a hypothetical match-up between the two front-runners, Bush and Gore are essentially tied, with 50 percent of all Americans choosing Bush and 46 percent choosing Gore.

But Gore fares better against other Republicans. In a hypothetical match-up, he beats House Speaker Newt Gingrich by a 2-1 margin. Gingrich is one of the best known GOP leaders today, but he has a high negative rating even within his own party.

The survey polled 1,005 adults, including 420 Republicans and 487 Democrats, on May 8-10. The margin of sampling error varied from +/- 3 to +/- 5 percentage points.

Here are the numbers:

Republicans' Choice For Nomination in 2000
Bush30% McCain4%
Dole14% Buchanan3%
Kemp9% Alexander2%
Quayle9% Bauer1%
Forbes7% Kasich1%
Gingrich6% Ashcroftless than 1 %
Asked of Republicans only Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Democrats' Choice For Nomination in 2000
Gore51% Kerrey3%
Jackson12% Kerry2%
Bradley8% Wellstone1%
Gephardt7%
Asked of Democrats only Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Presidential Choice in 2000
George W. Bush50%
Al Gore46%
Asked of all respondents Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Presidential Choice in 2000
Al Gore62%
Newt Gingrich32%
Asked of all respondents Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Handicapping the GOP field

Let's handicap the GOP field. There appear to be three tiers of potential candidates. Bush, Dole, Kemp and Forbes occupy the first tier; they are very well known and very well liked among the nation's rank-and-file Republicans.

Each of them is known by at least three-quarters of all Republicans nationwide, and their favorable ratings are at least twice as high as their unfavorable rating.

In the second tier are well-known GOP leaders who are not as well-liked. Newt Gingrich, Dan Quayle, and Pat Buchanan are familiar names to most Republicans, but their unfavorables are nearly as high or higher than their favorable ratings.

The remaining possible candidates are unfamiliar to large majorities of Republicans. They are generally well-liked among Republicans who are familiar with them, but they are still question marks to most GOP voters. Of course, these candidates have plenty of time to make themselves better known.

Republicans' Opinion of Potential Candidates
FavorableUnfavorable
George W. Bush75%10%
Elizabeth Dole68%15%
Jack Kemp56%22%
Steve Forbes49%23%
Dan Quayle50%42%
Newt Gingrich47%43%
Pat Buchanan33%47%
Asked of Republicans only Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Republicans' Opinion of Potential Candidates
FavorableUnfavorableUnfamiliar
John McCain29%12%59%
Lamar Alexander23%19%58%
John Kasich17%6%77%
John Ashcroft16%76%77%
Gary Bauer13%5%82%
Asked of Republicans only Sampling error: +/-3% pts

Of course, not all the GOP leaders on this list will actually run in the year 2000. What would happen to the field if some of the better-known candidates were to drop out? Without George W. Bush in the race, for example, Elizabeth Dole inherits the top spot, with Kemp, Quayle and Forbes behind her. Without Dole in the race, Bush picks up some support, trailed again by Quayle, Kemp and Forbes. And without either Bush or Dole, Kemp and Quayle share the pole position, followed by Forbes and Gingrich.

Republicans' Choice Without Bush in the Race
Dole19%
Kemp13%
Quayle13%
Forbes8%
Asked of Republicans only Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Republicans' Choice Without Dole in the Race
Bush33%
Quayle11%
Kemp10%
Forbes8%
Asked of Republicans only Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Republicans' Choice Without Bush or Dole in the Race
Kemp16%
Quayle16%
Forbes12%
Gingrich10%
Asked of Republicans only Sampling error: +/-5% pts

A clearer picture on Democratic side

The Democratic field is easier to handicap. A full 73 percent of Democrats nationwide have a favorable view of Al Gore, and only 7 percent are unfamiliar with him. Jesse Jackson is just about as well-known, but like Newt Gingrich, a large portion of his party's rank-and-file don't have a favorable view of him. Gephardt and Bradley are well-liked by Democrats around the country, but are not as well known, and the remaining potential candidates are unfamiliar to most Democrats.

Without Gore in the race, Jackson inherits the top spot, closely followed by Gephardt and Bradley, but a third of all Democrats are unsure who they would support if the Vice-President dropped out of the race.

Democrats' Opinion of Potential Candidates
FavorableUnfavorable
Gore73%20%
Jackson47%42%
Gephardt40%17%
Bradley36%12%
Asked of Democrats only Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Democrats' Choice Without Gore in Race
Jackson22%
Gephardt15%
Bradley14%
Kerrey9%
Kerry5%
Wellstone2%
Asked of Democrats only Sampling error: +/-5% pts

In Other News

Monday, May 11, 1998

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Gingrich, Gephardt To Visit Israel
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Top Justice Aide To Make Final Report On DNC Fund-Raising Abuses
Lewinsky Family Hires Media Rep

The "Inside Politics" Interview: Randy Tate, Gary Bauer

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Bush Leads GOP Field For 2000
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