Poll: Bush Leads GOP Field For 2000
By Keating Holland/CNN
WASHINGTON (May 11) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush leads the field of potential Republican presidential candidates for the year 2000, followed distantly by Elizabeth Dole, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll.
Thirty percent of all Republicans nationwide currently
make Bush their first choice for the party's nod two years from now.
On the
Democratic side, Vice President Al Gore maintains a commanding lead over any of his rivals, with more
than four times as much support among Democrats nationwide as Jesse Jackson,
who finishes second to the vice president.
In a hypothetical match-up between
the two front-runners, Bush and Gore are essentially tied, with 50 percent of all
Americans choosing Bush and 46 percent choosing Gore.
But Gore fares better against
other Republicans. In a hypothetical match-up, he beats House Speaker Newt Gingrich by a
2-1 margin. Gingrich is one of the best known GOP leaders today, but he
has a high negative rating even within his own party.
The survey polled 1,005 adults, including 420 Republicans and 487
Democrats, on May 8-10. The margin of sampling error varied from +/- 3 to +/- 5 percentage points.
Here are the numbers:
Republicans' Choice For Nomination in 2000 |
Bush | 30% |
McCain | 4% |
Dole | 14% |
Buchanan | 3% |
Kemp | 9% |
Alexander | 2% |
Quayle | 9% |
Bauer | 1% |
Forbes | 7% |
Kasich | 1% |
Gingrich | 6% |
Ashcroft | less than 1 % |
Asked of Republicans only Sampling error: +/-5% pts |
Democrats' Choice For Nomination in 2000 |
Gore | 51% |
Kerrey | 3% |
Jackson | 12% |
Kerry | 2% |
Bradley | 8% |
Wellstone | 1% |
Gephardt | 7% |
Asked of Democrats only Sampling error: +/-5% pts |
Presidential Choice in 2000 |
George W. Bush | 50% |
Al Gore | 46% |
Asked of all respondents Sampling error: +/-3% pts |
Presidential Choice in 2000 |
Al Gore | 62% |
Newt Gingrich | 32% |
Asked of all respondents Sampling error: +/-3% pts |
Handicapping the GOP field
Let's handicap the GOP field. There appear to be three tiers of potential
candidates. Bush, Dole, Kemp and Forbes occupy the first tier; they are very well
known and very well liked among the nation's rank-and-file Republicans.
Each
of them is known by at least three-quarters of all Republicans nationwide, and their favorable ratings are at least twice as high as their unfavorable rating.
In the second tier are
well-known GOP leaders who are not as well-liked. Newt Gingrich, Dan Quayle,
and Pat Buchanan are familiar names to most Republicans, but their unfavorables
are nearly as high or higher than their favorable ratings.
The remaining possible candidates are unfamiliar to large majorities of Republicans.
They are generally well-liked among Republicans who are familiar with them, but
they are still question marks to most GOP voters. Of course, these
candidates have plenty of time to make themselves better known.
Republicans' Opinion of Potential Candidates |
| Favorable | Unfavorable |
George W. Bush | 75% | 10% |
Elizabeth Dole | 68% | 15% |
Jack Kemp | 56% | 22% |
Steve Forbes | 49% | 23% |
Dan Quayle | 50% | 42% |
Newt Gingrich | 47% | 43% |
Pat Buchanan | 33% | 47% |
Asked of Republicans only Sampling error: +/-5% pts |
Republicans' Opinion of Potential Candidates |
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Unfamiliar |
John McCain | 29% | 12% | 59% |
Lamar Alexander | 23% | 19% | 58% |
John Kasich | 17% | 6% | 77% |
John Ashcroft | 16% | 76% | 77% |
Gary Bauer | 13% | 5% | 82% |
Asked of Republicans only Sampling error: +/-3% pts |
Of course, not all the GOP leaders on this list will actually run in the year
2000. What would happen to the field if some of the better-known candidates
were to drop out? Without George W. Bush in the race, for example, Elizabeth
Dole inherits the top spot, with Kemp, Quayle and Forbes behind her. Without
Dole in the race, Bush picks up some support, trailed again by Quayle, Kemp and
Forbes. And without either Bush or Dole, Kemp and Quayle share the pole
position, followed by Forbes and Gingrich.
Republicans' Choice Without Bush in the Race |
Dole | 19% |
Kemp | 13% |
Quayle | 13% |
Forbes | 8% |
Asked of Republicans only Sampling error: +/-5% pts |
Republicans' Choice Without Dole in the Race |
Bush | 33% |
Quayle | 11% |
Kemp | 10% |
Forbes | 8% |
Asked of Republicans only Sampling error: +/-5% pts |
Republicans' Choice Without Bush or Dole in the Race |
Kemp | 16% |
Quayle | 16% |
Forbes | 12% |
Gingrich | 10% |
Asked of Republicans only Sampling error: +/-5% pts |
A clearer picture on Democratic side
The Democratic field is easier to handicap. A full 73 percent of Democrats nationwide have a
favorable view of Al Gore, and only 7 percent are unfamiliar with him. Jesse Jackson
is just about as well-known, but like Newt Gingrich, a large portion of his
party's rank-and-file don't have a favorable view of him. Gephardt and Bradley
are well-liked by Democrats around the country, but are not as well known, and
the remaining potential candidates are unfamiliar to most Democrats.
Without
Gore in the race, Jackson inherits the top spot, closely followed by Gephardt
and Bradley, but a third of all Democrats are unsure who they would support
if the Vice-President dropped out of the race.
Democrats' Opinion of Potential Candidates |
| Favorable | Unfavorable |
Gore | 73% | 20% |
Jackson | 47% | 42% |
Gephardt | 40% | 17% |
Bradley | 36% | 12% |
Asked of Democrats only Sampling error: +/-5% pts |
Democrats' Choice Without Gore in Race |
Jackson | 22% |
Gephardt | 15% |
Bradley | 14% |
Kerrey | 9% |
Kerry | 5% |
Wellstone | 2% |
Asked of Democrats only Sampling error: +/-5% pts |
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