Stocks rise after America's economy grew more than expected

President Joe Biden on Thursday trumpeted the latest GDP report that showed the US economy expanded by an annualized 2.9% during the fourth quarter, capping off a year that saw 2.1% economic growth, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday morning.

Biden was in Springfield, Virginia, to deliver his first major economic speech of the year. 

"Last summer, plenty of Wall Street analysts were saying that by the end of the year there would be a recession," he said. "They've been telling me since I got elected, we were going to be in a recession. Every time we've gotten better. It turns out, thank God, they were wrong."

Biden also touted the strong labor market, historically low unemployment rate and the declines in inflation during recent months.

US stocks were up Thursday, after the government reported that the economy grew at a faster pace in the fourth quarter than economists were anticipating. It was the fifth consecutive day of gains for the Dow.

That data, coupled with a drop in the number of people filing for weekly unemployment benefits and strong durable goods orders from businesses, helped fuel market expectations that the economy may avoid a recession this year.

The market is also betting that if inflation continues to cool, the Federal Reserve could hit the pause button on interest rate hikes sometime later this year, a development that would likely increase the chances of an economic soft landing.

Shares of Chevron (CVX) rose nearly 5% after announcing a huge stock buyback program and increase to its dividend...news that irked the White House given the high price of oil. BuzzFeed's stock (BZFD) soared, more than doubling after the digital media company announced plans to use artificial intelligence technology to generate content.

The Dow rose more than 200 points, or 0.6%.

The S&P 500 was up 1.1%.

The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.8%.

As stocks settle after the trading day, levels might still change slightly.

The end could be near for struggling retailer Bed Bath & Beyond warned in a regulatory filing Thursday that it received a notice of default from its lender, JPMorgan Chase. Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) plunged more than 20% on the news, to about $2.56 a share.

According to the Securities & Exchange Commission filing, Bed Bath & Beyond defaulted "on or around" January 13. As a result, creditors are demanding immediate payment.

Bed Bath & Beyond could be forced to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization due to its financial woes.

The company said in its SEC filing Thursday that "at this time, the Company does not have sufficient resources to repay the amounts under the Credit Facilities and this will lead the Company to consider all strategic alternatives, including restructuring its debt under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code."

Bed Bath & Beyond added that it is also cutting costs, lowering capital expenditures and closing stores and distribution centers.

Investors continued to cheer good news about the economy. All three major market indexes were higher around lunch time.

Chevron (CVX) led the Dow following the news of its huge stock buyback plan and dividend increase. Tech giants Salseforce (CRM), Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) were also among the Dow winners.

The Dow inched up about 40 points, or 0.1%.

The S&P 500 rose 0.4%.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%.

Interest rates have soared. The housing market has weakened. Retail sales tumbled during the holidays. But the head of credit card giant Mastercard isn't too worried.

"While macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty persists, consumer spending has been remarkably resilient," said Mastercard CEO Michael Miebach in the company's earnings release Thursday.

Miebach added on a conference call with analysts that consumer "spending patterns have largely normalized relative to the effects of the pandemic with the notable exception of China."

Shares of Mastercard (MA) fell about 2% in midday trading though. The company's outlook is a little more sanguine. Chief Financial Officer Sachin Mehra said on the conference call with analysts that the "vast majority" of its markets "are kind of growing and growing at a healthy pace, but they're not growing at an accelerating pace." 

Credit card rivals Visa (V), American Express (AXP) and Discover (DFS) all fell slightly Thursday too. So did the stock of Synchrony (SYF), which reported earnings earlier this week and noted that it expected a "mild recession" and rising unemployment rate.

Chevron was the top-performing Dow stock of 2022, surging more than 50% thanks to a spike in crude oil prices. Now, Chevron is looking to further reward its shareholders...but it is not making any friends in Washington as a result.

Chevron announced a $75 billion share repurchase program late Wednesday. When companies use cash to buy their own stock, it reduces the overall number of shares outstanding and typically leads to an increase in earnings per share as a result. Chevron also boosted its quarterly dividend to shareholders, raising it 6% to $1.51 a share.

Shares of Chevron (CVX) rose nearly 4% on the news Thursday.

Companies often tout dividends and buybacks as prudent uses of cash. But many in Washington are annoyed by the fact that oil giants haven't taken more steps to use their windfall profits to give workers even bigger pay increases or invest in drilling capacity in order to pump more crude to increase supply and meet demand.

White House Assistant Press Secretary Abdullah Hasan took note, tweeting that "for a company that claimed not too long ago that it was ‘working hard’ to increase oil production, handing out $75 billion to executives and wealthy shareholders sure is an odd way to show it."

The US economy continues to grow, but small businesses aren't all reaping the rewards of this expansion. That could be bad news if/when there actually is a recession.

According to data from Torsten Slok, chief economist with Apollo Global Management, about 40% of companies in the Russell 2000 index (which looks at small cap stocks) were unprofitable over the past year.

To put that into context, only about 15% of the companies reported losses over the previous 12 months during the late 1990s...just before the 2001 recession, after the dot-com bubble imploded.

The percentage of companies posting losses spiked in 2001. It did so again during the Great Recession of 2008 and the brief Covid-induced recession of 2020. Slok is concerned that even more small companies will start to bleed red ink if the economy enters another downturn.

"During recessions, the share of unprofitable firms rises. This is not surprising," Slok wrote, adding that if this trend continues, more than half of the companies in the Russell 2000 could wind up losing money.

If you look at all the data that came out Thursday morning, it's tempting to come to the conclusion that the US economy is still in pretty good shape. Not so fast, says one market expert.

Raheel Siddiqui, senior investment strategist at Neuberger Berman, said he thinks investors have to dig deeper in the GDP report.

"I live in the world of data," Siddiqui said. "Today's data was terrible, but most won't tell you that."

Real disposable personal income, for example, fell more than 2% in the fourth quarter from a year ago. That's a sign of how inflation is impacting consumer spending.

Siddiqui thinks inflation continues to be a problem for the economy... and that the Fed is going to act accordingly to tame it. He believes there is a greater chance of more aggressive rate hikes than the market is willing to admit. Traders are currently expecting a small rate hike next week... a quarter point. But Siddiqui said a half point isn't out of the question.

"The Fed is hoping that if they continue to raise rates, it will create a negative wealth effect. Spending slows and stocks come down," he said.

"The Fed is not winning this game, so I would not be surprised if the Fed does a 50 basis point [half-point] hike to make the market take them seriously," he added. "If I were [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell, it's something I would consider."

US stocks rose after the opening bell as investors treated good economic news as good news for the markets. The nation's economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.9% in the fourth quarter, surpassing consensus forecasts. What's more, the number of Americans filing for weekly jobless claims continued to fall and durable goods orders rose more than expected.

In corporate news, shares of Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA) surged nearly 10% thanks to strong sales and earnings. Software giants IBM (IBM) and SAP (SAP) both fell in early trading. The two tech companies are the latest to announce layoffs.

The Dow gained about 100 points, or 0.3%.

The S&P 500 was up 0.6%.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.