A lot is riding on the pandemic recovery going well. But the New York Federal Reserve's weekly economic index showed that the rebound might be in trouble.
The index -- which is composed of data points including the labor market, consumer behavior and goods production -- ticked lower for the first time since hitting its pandemic low-point in late April.
One data point doesn't make a trend, but it's notable nonetheless.
Before Covid-19 hit, the index stood at a modestly positive number -- at the end of February, it was 1.5%. But since the outbreak and subsequent lockdown, the weekly indicator has been in negative territory. On Tuesday, it stood at -6.9%, down from -6.1% last week. If this level of the index persists for the whole quarter, it would imply a similar year-over-year drop in gross domestic product in that quarter.